Has McCain actually already LOST?(Yes he has)

[Covenant]

How is she going to stay in the news for the next four years if she goes back to Alaska? She was a complete non-factor in national politics until she was picked by McCain, and she will be so again if they lose. The consequence of being abruptly catapulted to national fame is a meteoric crash.

Well, let me admit again that I think it's more likely she'd fade into obscurity, but I do think I can see how it'd happen the other way. She could essentially give up the Alaska governorship and begin going on speaking tours, learning a lot about other places in America, allowing the whole Alaska-as-Russian-Doorstep thing to fade into the background a bit now that her Backwoods Barbie persona has already been established, and use her snarky, mean, put-down style of humor to good effect on college campuses whenever she's invited by the College Republicans. Get involved in Downs Syndrome and Special Needs groups and try to get herself seen as a champion of the downtrodden. Throw mud and snipe from the sidelines in carefully manicured interviews as she gets her sea-legs on the Fox and Conservative News circut, and build up a media market that's ready to defend her and help shield her from areas she's weak in.

I honestly doubt Troopergate will dent her. She'll continue to ignore it until this is all over, and then it won't go anywhere anyway. Suffering a loss on the ticket won't hurt her that badly--she'll probably finish with high favorability ratings, and she was added to the ticket very late. If what we've seen is any indication too, Palin's disconnect from the McCain camp might let them re-cast her as a person who was fighting to do what's right even after she was nodded for V.P. and so forth, blah blah. She's popular, they'd be able to spin it, I think. Four years is enough time to get better enough at the national media thing that she would be able to stay with the flirty girly Sarah Sixpack garbage and still not look as incredibly stupid in an arguement. She could also start outreach efforts right now to try to get in touch with as many republicans and women as she can, and start making a case for herself four years in advance.

This is if the Republicans decide to throw in behind her. Right now they're in disarray and their V.P. is not only a dumb-as-a-rock sockpuppet, but she's also wildly popular with their base. It's like a shot to re-do George Bush, but with a huge bite out of a theoretical Hillary market. If the Clintons are coming back into play in four or eight years, imagine Hillary running against Sarah. That would be a very unusual race.

Anyway, that's all I meant. I don't think it's likely, but it all depends on the Republican voter's level of interest with her. I hope it plummets. And I suspect it will. They don't like losers.

[General Zod]

This is if the Republicans decide to throw in behind her. Right now they're in disarray and their V.P. is not only a dumb-as-a-rock sockpuppet, but she's also wildly popular with their base. It's like a shot to re-do George Bush, but with a huge bite out of a theoretical Hillary market. If the Clintons are coming back into play in four or eight years, imagine Hillary running against Sarah. That would be a very unusual race.

The Hillary market is somewhat questionable, though. Depending on who you're looking at, Palin isn't doing terribly well among female voters.

[Covenant]

Actually, what I was getting at is that Hillary might scare enough independants that they'd vote for Sarah, since people who normally vote against women in office due to sexism wouldn't have anywhere to turn and Palin is definately less of a scary modern woman than Hillary. In a race between Palin and Biden for the 2016 race, the sexist bastard vote would probably vote for the old, experienced white man--as might some of the Republicans--unless Hillary were on the other side to make them cry and vote for Fargo.

[Durandal]

The DNC just ran this ad. It skewers McCain.

[The Original Nex]

Very looong Rolling Stone article that is a rather scathing biography of the Senator from Arizona:

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/covers ... ohn_mccain

[TimothyC]

If the loser in the Electoral College loses Ohio, and is within 20 electoral votes, it's going to be '00 all over again.

Published:Sunday, October 5, 2008

By Marc Kovac

Republicans have said it was not the intent of the law to allow voter registration and early ballot casting in the same day.

COLUMBUS — Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani joined the continuing chorus of Republican criticism aimed at Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and her decision to disallow observers from early voting sites.

“The Democratic Party here in Ohio wants to conduct secret balloting in a general election,” the former presidential hopeful told an audience near Columbus on Saturday afternoon. “You can’t do that. This is part of a general election. The question is, what do they have to hide?”

Giuliani spoke to upward of 200 Republican Party leaders from across the state during a leadership summit, aimed at bolstering campaign efforts entering the final month before the November general election. He then joined former Republican Attorneys General Betty Montgomery and Jim Petro and Ohio Republican Party Deputy Chairman Kevin DeWine during a press conference spotlighting directives issued by Brunner on the same-day voter registration/absentee ballot issue.

The deadline to register to vote is Monday. Under a new state law that went into effect in 2006, eligible voters have been able to request, obtain and cast absentee ballots since last Tuesday. So, during the past week, residents could attempt to complete both processes at the same time.

Republicans have said it was not the intent of the law to allow voter registration and early ballot casting in the same day. They believe the setup opens the door to election fraud, potentially allowing individuals to vote multiple times or use the names of dead people in order to cast ballots.

Brunner disagreed and directed county boards to develop procedures to allow same-day registration/voting but to require residents who do so to cast their ballots on paper, thus providing a means for their later removal if they are ruled ineligible to participate in the election. The Supreme Court subsequently sided with the secretary of state on the registration/absentee voting issue.

In a related matter, Republicans have filed suit hoping to allow observers in early voting locations to witness the registration and voting processes. Brunner’s office has stated that Ohio law does not make provisions for observers at early voting sites and that bipartisan elections workers were well-equipped and able to protect the integrity of the voting process.

In a statement released late Friday, Brunner said, “I believe the Republican and Democratic elections officials in Ohio have the training, diligence and professionalism to observe and administer in-person absentee voting. Observers are allowed and encouraged during the critical phases of opening, processing and counting absentee ballots. There is transparency in the system, given the limitations of current Ohio law.”

She added, “Fair administering of elections first requires attention to the law. In this instance, I am not philosophically opposed to observers during in-person absentee voting, but the Legislature simply has not given me the authority to require that action.”

DeWine said the Republican Party will continue to press the issue, however. A lawsuit was filed Friday seeking to allow observers at early-voting sites.

“The hallmarks of any good election process are transparency and openness and fairness,” DeWine said. “And observers play a key role in the process. ... We will continue to fight on this case. We will continue to fight on this cause.”

Giuliani, citing Ohio’s battleground status and likely importance in the presidential race, said observers should be allowed because “the last thing that you want is any kind of taint on that election process. ... It would seem to me, whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat, you’d be interested in having really fair results here. .... I can’t imagine why you’d want to be on the side of trying to keep the process as hidden as possible as opposed to as open as possible.”

He added, “I can’t imagine why you’d want to keep them out. I can’t imagine why the Democratic secretary of state doesn’t endorse that. I can’t imagine why the Democratic Party doesn’t embrace that. The only thing I can wonder is what it is that you think you’re going to be doing that you don’t want people to see.”

If Ohio goes for Obama, McCain makes the push that Sec. Brunner used "Chicago Style" Politics to win, and then she's gone in '10. if McCain wins, I can't see Obama letting go. Thus my prediction - We will not know who the next president will be on November 5th.

[General Zod]

If the loser in the Electoral College loses Ohio, and is within 20 electoral votes, it's going to be '00 all over again.>snip<

If Ohio goes for Obama, McCain makes the push that Sec. Brunner used "Chicago Style" Politics to win, and then she's gone in '10. if McCain wins, I can't see Obama letting go. Thus my prediction - We will not know who the next president will be on November 5th.

As the electoral map stands at the moment, 20 votes is well within the margin of safety for Obama, and as long as he wins either Florida OR Ohio he's in the clear. Short of rather massive blunders I'll be surprised if the map swings much more in McCain's favor by November.

[Covenant]

Very looong Rolling Stone article that is a rather scathing biography of the Senator from Arizona:

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/covers ... ohn_mccain

I didn't know that Rolling Stone had such good writers. It was actually a pretty informative article, and I thought I'd done some good research on him on my own. Question though for Boomstick if she swings by--or some other pilot. Seems like Johnny Boy has a habit of stalling out his engine and crashing during attempted landings. How would someone stall their engine on a landing? I thought you idled your way in?

[Durandal]

Seems like Johnny Boy has a habit of stalling out his engine and crashing during attempted landings. How would someone stall their engine on a landing? I thought you idled your way in?

That might be what he did wrong.

[Tribun]

Look at this.
So much for McCain's hope that the economic crisis will become invisible so that he can say "and now for something completely different".
Link

NEW YORK - Wall Street tumbled Monday, joining a selloff around the world, as fears grew that the financial crisis will cascade through economies globally despite bailout efforts by the U.S. and other governments. The credit market remained under strain, and investors piled into government bonds. The Dow Jones industrials skidded more than 300 points and fell below 10,000 for the first time in four years.

The markets have come to the sobering realization that the Bush administration's $700 billion rescue plan won't work quickly to unfreeze the credit markets, and that many banks are still having difficulty gaining access to cash.

Over the weekend, governments across Europe rushed to prop up failing banks. The German government and financial industry agreed on a $68 billion bailout for commercial-property lender Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, while France's BNP Paribas agreed to acquire a 75 percent stake in Fortis's Belgium bank after a government rescue failed.

The governments of Germany, Ireland and Greece also said they would guarantee bank deposits.

The Federal Reserve also took fresh steps to help ease seized-up credit markets. The central bank said Monday it will begin paying interest on commercial banks' reserves and will expand its loan program to squeezed banks.

"These programs are going to be effective I believe," said Rob Lutts, chief investment officer at Cabot Money Management. "Shorter term we're in a very challenging environment that's going to take a while."

In the first hour of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 336.43, or 3.26 percent, to 9,988.95, dropping below 10,000 for the first time since Oct. 29, 2004.

Broader indexes also tumbled. The Standard & Poor's 500 index shed 40.26, or 3.66 percent, to 1,058.97; and the Nasdaq composite index fell 77.35, or 3.97 percent, to 1,870.04. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies dropped 22.30, or 3.60 percent, to 597.10.

In Asia, the Nikkei 225 closed 4.25 percent lower. Europe's stock markets also declined, with the FTSE-100 down 3.24 percent, Germany's DAX down 5.28 percent, and France's CAC-40 down 5.60 percent.

The anxiety was again obvious in the credit markets. The yield on the three-month Treasury bill slipped to 0.38 percent from 0.50 percent late Friday. Demand for bills remains high because of their safety; investors are willing to take extremely low returns just to have their money in a secure place.

Investors also moved into longer-term Treasury bonds. The yield on the 10-year note fell to 3.52 percent from 3.60 percent late Friday.

[Ender]

Very looong Rolling Stone article that is a rather scathing biography of the Senator from Arizona:

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/covers ... ohn_mccain

I didn't know that Rolling Stone had such good writers.

Let's ask their former chief political writer about their writing standards




Rolling Stone is an interesting take on the typical biased news source. Whereas blogs, infotainment, newspaper editorials, and radio blowhards typically actively distort the facts of the scenario to push their slant (eg C&L ranting about the HST's turnover being a prelude to bombing Iran, all of Bill O'Rielly's show) RS is meticulous in it's accuracy and standards of integrity. They achieve their slant by just not reporting the other side of it, rather then lying about it. RS really goes above and beyond your typical harping rag in terms of investigative journalism - look at how Matt Tabasi went undercover to a Hagee Ministery retreat to report on it. When was the last time US News & World Report or Salon did that? Even when events contradict what they want to sell they will report them, even if they downplay them in doing so - see the appendix to Generation Kill detailing the overall picture of the war beyond what Wright saw and later events and how they reflected on certain marines. The USMC recommends its officers read the book for a reason.

Rolling Stone is openly and unapologetically biased. But its standards for writing are such that if they say something happened, it is a safe assumption that that is how it went down.

[Tribun]

It really doesn't look good for McCain at the East Coast.
Here the latest polls:

Virginia - SurveyUSA - Obama 53, McCain 43 - Obama +10
New Hampshire- SurveyUSA - Obama 53, McCain 40 - Obama +13
Virginia Suffolk - Obama 51, McCain 39 Obama +12
Pennsylvania- Morning Call Tracking - Obama 49, McCain 38 - Obama +11
New Mexico- Albuquerque Journal Obama 45, McCain 40 - Obama +5

[RedImperator]

Pollster.com has moved Minnesota into "Leans Obama", bringing Obama's projected EVs to 260 with 115 toss-ups left. I predict New Hampshire will be moved into "Leans Obama" in a few days, bringing the total to 264. Electoral-Vote has 329 (D)-194 (R)-15 (Tied). On Electoral-Vote this day in 2004, the total was 232 (D)-285 (R)-21 (Tied), with the map and the EV tally very close to the final outcome.

[Darth Wong]

So the famed Republican "October Surprise" this time was trotting out William Ayers again, after that story was already broken and beaten to death a long time ago? I'm disappointed; I was expecting something more clever.

DO NOT LOOK BEHIND THE CURTAIN! LOOK OVER THERE! TERRORISM!!!

[RedImperator]

Very interesting graph from pollster Charles Franklin (the image I linked is hosted by DailyKos, but it's also available on Pollster.com), comparing Obama's poll numbers to Gore's and Kerry's. Of particular interest is Gore's precipitous drop in early October, which corresponds with the debates. If you remember, Gore won those on the issues but came out the loser because he came off as a jerk in the first debate, and then never really challenged Bush in subsequent meetings. If Obama gets through the debates with his poll numbers intact, he will have cleared a major hurdle that Gore didn't (Kerry's numbers rose in the same period, but he was starting from so far behind he couldn't close the deal by Election Day).

[Tribun]

This looks like a REALLY bad day for McCain. Now Obama is only 0.3 away from getting 50% in the RCP Average. You know that this spells serious trouble for McCain.

[The Original Nex]

And RCP excludes R2K tracking polls (ostensibly due to data filing issues, but more likely due to DailyKos having commissioned them), Pollster already has Obama up over 50%.

[Cairber]

So I went canvassing this evening and the local office said that, for the first time, McCain's people were reaching more people than they were. They do phone surveys to see if people have been contacted (phone or face to face) by the Obama campaign or the McCain campaign, and I guess today was the first time it flipped to McCain.

So...we have work to do. McCain is putting all his Michigan people into other states and a lot are coming to southeast PA it seems. We knocked on 30 doors, registered 3 voters and brought one person over to Obama. Left a lot of literature and met a lot of Obama supporters....got doors slammed on us by 2 people (" it's private information!" ) whom I assume were McCain supporters

So every time I look at this thread I think "NO, so get working!!"

[Big Phil]

And the gloves come completely off, to be replaced by brass knuckles and crushed glass


http://my.earthlink.net/channel/news/pr ... 6177913215

McCain calls Obama a liar, faults his Chicago ties
October 06, 2008 7:01 PM EDT

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. - Behind in the polls, Republican John McCain on Monday called Democratic rival Barack Obama a liar as he leveled his harshest criticism yet, and said the campaign boils down to one basic question: Who is Obama really?

Adopting an aggressive tone on the eve of their second debate of the season, the Republican presidential candidate criticized Obama's ties to Chicago, his legislative record and even his pair of best-selling memoirs.

McCain, speaking about the financial crisis, took offense at Obama's accusation that McCain opposed regulation that would have prevented the credit crunch. "I guess he believes if a lie is big enough and repeated often enough it will be believed," McCain said.

The Arizona senator, a veteran of more than two decades in Congress, told his audience that while he is a known quantity the same cannot be said about Obama, who is midway through his first term as a senator from Illinois.

"You need to know who you're putting in the White House - where the candidate came from and what he or she believes," McCain said. "And you need to know now, before it is time to choose."

Later, he added: "There are essential things that we don't know about Sen. Obama or the record he brings to this campaign."

Obama campaign spokesman Tommy Vietor said McCain is a "truly angry candidate" who is trying to divert attention from the economy and that it was Obama who warned, in 2007, of the subprime mortgage crisis now blamed for the turmoil in the financial industry. Vietor said McCain has been consistent in calling for less regulation, "proving that he hasn't learned any lessons from the last banking scandal he was involved in."

That was a reference to Charles Keating, a savings and loan financier and McCain friend and campaign contributor who ultimately was convicted of securities fraud. Just months into his Senate career in the late 1980s, McCain made what he has called "the worst mistake of my life" by participating in meetings with banking regulators on behalf of Keating.

The Senate ethics committee investigated five senators' relationships with Keating; McCain was cited for a lesser role than the others, including his "poor judgment."

McCain and his advisers plan to hammer the theme that Obama is an untested candidate who has not faced legitimate scrutiny as they try to close the gap in the final four weeks before Election Day, Nov. 4.

The Arizona senator spent the weekend working with his advisers to sharpen a line of attack against Obama, who has jumped ahead of the Republican in several critical swing states. Aides said the tinge of uncertainty about Obama is their way to puncture his lead in the polls.

Republicans have for months criticized Obama's relationship with his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright; convicted Chicago businessman and contributor Antoin "Tony" Rezko; and William Ayers, a 1960s-era radical and a founder of the Weather Underground group blamed for several Vietnam War-era bombings. Some of the criticism has come from McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

McCain hasn't stepped there yet.

"Who is the real Sen. Obama?" he asked Monday. "Is he the candidate who promises to cut middle class taxes, or the politician who voted to raise middle class taxes? ... Is he the candidate who promises change, or is he the politician who has bought into everything that is wrong with Washington? And he's bought into it, big time."

McCain drew loud cheers when he said the Democrat has written two memoirs but "he's not exactly an open book."

McCain and the Republican Party, meanwhile, launched an ad Monday with the same "Who is Barack Obama?" theme. It highlights Obama telling a New Hampshire audience last summer that U.S. soldiers are air-raiding villages and killing civilians in Afghanistan. The ad calls the comment "dishonorable" and Obama's votes "dangerous."

McCain also raised the specter of illegal foreign donors to Obama's campaign and special "earmark" spending requests for campaign fundraisers. "Why has Sen. Obama refused to disclose the names of people funding his campaign," McCain said as the crowd booed. "His campaign had to return $33,000 in illegal foreign funds from Palestinian donors."

McCain's reference was based on a Newsweek article that said Obama's campaign had returned the money to two brothers living in the Gaza Strip. According to the article, the two Palestinians "had bought T-shirts in bulk from the campaign's online store. They had listed their address as 'Ga.,' which the campaign took to mean Georgia rather than Gaza."

[General Zod]

And the gloves come completely off, to be replaced by brass knuckles and crushed glass

>snip<

Already posted, but yeah.

[Tribun]

It's even more telling that Palin called Obama in Florida a terrorist, and that the basic emotion in the crowd of listeners (all the usual suspects) was something like "let's lynch that nigger".

It's really revealing.

[CmdrWilkens]

Suffering a loss on the ticket won't hurt her that badly--she'll probably finish with high favorability ratings, and she was added to the ticket very late.

I just, real quick, wanted to address this. Right now she has a net NEGATIVE favorability rating. Her favorability is actually worse than McCain's which takes some doing. Her being used as the attack dog to softenthings up for Johnny Mac isn't going to help either. Suffice to say she may remain the darling of the evangelical right but as this last election proved those folks enough aren't enough to get you victory even within the Republican party (e.g. Mike Huckabee). Add in a net unfavorable rating and she's toast on that account.

[Tribun]

In case you wonder why the Zogby and Hotline polls suddenly seem to get much closer:
These sneaks manipulated the weighting in favor of the GOP, of course without telling anyone. (Fact is that the GOP has far less weight than implied in these two polls).

However, what I fear is, that McCains racial slurs and dirty tactics actually will work, since my confidence in the common man isn't that great.

[Big Phil]

In case you wonder why the Zogby and Hotline polls suddenly seem to get much closer:
These sneaks manipulated the weighting in favor of the GOP, of course without telling anyone. (Fact is that the GOP has far less weight than implied in these two polls).

However, what I fear is, that McCains racial slurs and dirty tactics actually will work, since my confidence in the common man isn't that great.

Open racial slurs won't work - it didn't work back in the '63 when Bull Connor turned the dogs and water hoses on protesters; at that time, when America was far more openly racist, it served only to disgust most white Americans and force them to confront racism in all its ugliness.

Far more damaging to Obama is subtle language that focuses on him being different from other Americans; people can justify their vote (in that case) as being non-racist.

[Ace Pace]

Tonight isn't a debate, it's a farce.

Town Hall Event Rules

The Obama-McCain event tonight consists of two parallel press conferences that happen to be in the same room. The detailed rules hammered out by the two campaigns state that the questions were to have been submitted in advance by the audience members and over the Internet. The questioner may not change the question and the microphone will be cut off after the question. Neither the questioner nor the moderator, Tom Brokaw of NBC, may ask followup questions. The candidates may not question each other. There will be no debate at all. Who does this format favor? Probably neither candidate. Usually the questions the general public asks aren't very hard, are largely predictable in advance, and have already been asked 100 times ("how will you fix the economy?"). The candidates have stock answers they will reel off. Given the current state of polling, McCain needs to shake things up and Obama needs to keep the status quo. An event that doesn't rock the boat much thus de facto works for Obama. Nevertheless, once in a while something unexpected happens at one of these events, In 1992, someone asked the candidates how the national debt affected them personally. George H.W. Bush was flustered by the question (by which the questioner probably meant the budget deficit) and it threw him off stride somewhat. Thanks to Political Wire for the pointer to the event rules.

This is meant to be a real debate?