Canada Goes to the Polls (Election Thread)

[Enigma]

So this was the biggest waste of taxpayer money.

Nothing really different from two months ago.

Harper decides to have an election before the American one, cons the G-G into illegally calling an election.

Harper hadn't lost the confidence of Parliament, because Parliament was not in session when he killed the government. No majority, so if what Harper believed was true, that Parliament lost the confidence, then we'll be back at the polls soon after he calls Parliament.

Not a waste for Harper. He snags an extra 20 seats and at the same time cuts the Liberals off at the knees with them losing 30 seats with 20 going to the Tories and the rest split between the Bloc and the NDP. Plus, don't be surprised to find Dion stepping down and maybe Layton but I doubt that since he has gained 7 more seats than the last election.

A waste for everyone else but definitely not for Harper.

[Braedley]

Well I'm off to bed, I'll check the rest of the (near) final results tomorrow. I know that there are a number of ridings that will need to be recounted, particularly one in New Brunswick, where the margin was less than 100. I know the landscape won't change dramatically between now and then though.

[bozazz]

I feel like I'm surrounded on all sides by conservatives. I'm in Calgary and conservatives are wining by double digits. I'm still hoping that someday people here will become less conservative and more tolerant for diversity. If I'm lucky it'll be before I die.

[Ekiqa]

I feel like I'm surrounded on all sides by conservatives. I'm in Calgary and conservatives are wining by double digits. I'm still hoping that someday people here will become less conservative and more tolerant for diversity. If I'm lucky it'll be before I die.

It'll happen when the oil runs out, and they become dependent upon the rest of the country for equalisation payments.

Within your lifetime, for that.

Latest results are 57.5% of the voter turnout. Or 13 million of 23 million. I imagine that there is a lot of students who didn't vote, who could've swung several ridings either to Liberal or NDP.

[aerius]

This is almost the result I wanted, now the Liberals need to get to work and find another Jean Chrétien, fast. I give the current government maybe 2 years or so at most before they get taken out by the federal budget not passing. The only thing I don't like is that the minority is damn close to a majority.

[Ekiqa]

This is almost the result I wanted, now the Liberals need to get to work and find another Jean Chrétien, fast. I give the current government maybe 2 years or so at most before they get taken out by the federal budget not passing. The only thing I don't like is that the minority is damn close to a majority.

You think Ignatieff is a better choice? He was what the old guard wanted, but the actual members of the party wanted Dion.

[Academia Nut]

I'm happy that Edmonton was capable of electing at least one non-conservative. Yeah!

And the loss of over 20 seats is going to really smart for the Liberals. Dion's days are numbered me thinks.

[Solauren]

Some quick numbers from CBC.ca

Party, How many people voted for them.
Block Quebecious - 1,379,565
Conservatives - 5,205,334
Green Party - 940,747
Liberals - 3,629,990
NDP - 2,517,075

Combined total of Liberals + NDP; 6,147,065
(add the Greens; 7,087,812)

It would appear the reason the Converstatives are winning elections is because the people that would normally not vote for them, are split between the NDP + Liberals (and to a lesser degree, the Green party)

This is very similiar to what was happening before the Reform + Progressive Conservatives merged into the current Conservative party. The 'Right wing' was split between them, and the Liberals would win because of this.

Now, the 'left wing' is split between the Liberals + NDP (more so then they were before), and the Conservatives appears to be winning as a result of that.

I'll do a more detailed analysis once I get get a list of results by riding.

[Enigma]

This is almost the result I wanted, now the Liberals need to get to work and find another Jean Chrétien, fast. I give the current government maybe 2 years or so at most before they get taken out by the federal budget not passing. The only thing I don't like is that the minority is damn close to a majority.

You think Ignatieff is a better choice? He was what the old guard wanted, but the actual members of the party wanted Dion.

As I mentioned before in another thread is that for the Liberals to have a chance they need new blood. Someone not connected in any way to Jean Chretien or Paul Martin's baggage and be able to lead the party into a new direction. Dion has to go, and the Tories will have a field day with either Ignatieff or Bob Rae.

[Ma Deuce]

As I mentioned before in another thread is that for the Liberals to have a chance they need new blood. Someone not connected in any way to Jean Chretien or Paul Martin's baggage and be able to lead the party into a new direction. Dion has to go, and the Tories will have a field day with either Ignatieff or Bob Rae.

Dion's connection to Chretien was a complete non-factor. His own performance as Opposition Leader and during the election is what did him in, notably his failure to appear as a strong leader, his failure to connect with voters, and finally his failure to adequately explain and defend his own ideas. Nonetheless, the Liberals have picked up a few leadership potentials this election besides Iggy and Rae, including Justin Trudeau (though honestly I have my doubts about him) and Gerrard Kennedy.

[Braedley]

I'm happy that Edmonton was capable of electing at least one non-conservative. Yeah!

At first I thought you were referring to the tight race with the independent in Edmonton-Sherwood Park, but no, it's and NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona!

[Solauren]

I've done my crunch...

My source data comes from here, the electrions canada website.

The reason the Conservatives keep winning is because of the 'Left wing' split between the Liberals and NDP.
Hell, it's also part of the reason the BQ get some of there seats.

Canadian Election Results, 2008.
Conservatives: 143 (12 short of a Majority)
Liberals: 76
NDP: 37
Independent: 2
BQ: 50

You merge the Liberals + NDP into one party (assuming no votes change), and here's the results you get.
Conservatives: 89 (less then the combined total that the Liberals + NDP have now). A loss of 54 seats
Liberal/NDP Merged Party: 176 (21 more then they need to form a majority). A gain of 63 seats
Independent: 2
BQ: 41 (a loss of 9 seats).

Surprising?

[Solauren]

Sorry, that should read elections, not electrions.

[Enigma]

I've done my crunch...

My source data comes from here, the electrions canada website.

The reason the Conservatives keep winning is because of the 'Left wing' split between the Liberals and NDP.
Hell, it's also part of the reason the BQ get some of there seats.

Canadian Election Results, 2008.
Conservatives: 143 (12 short of a Majority)
Liberals: 76
NDP: 37
Independent: 2
BQ: 50

You merge the Liberals + NDP into one party (assuming no votes change), and here's the results you get.
Conservatives: 89 (less then the combined total that the Liberals + NDP have now). A loss of 54 seats
Liberal/NDP Merged Party: 176 (21 more then they need to form a majority). A gain of 63 seats
Independent: 2
BQ: 41 (a loss of 9 seats).

Surprising?

It doesn't matter. The Liberals managed to get majority governments while fighting off the NDP. Also what you are doing is more like merging Libs and NDP and using a proprtional representation style election rather than past the post. If you have the list of every riding and then merge the votes from the Libs and NDP then we'd get a better answer.

[General Trelane (Retired)]

Oddly enough, I don't recall seeing many, if any, attack ads against the NDP....

The conservatives had a rather nasty attack ad against the NDP here in BC claiming that that the Ottawa NDP does not listen to BC. It was actually rather funny as it showed the back of Layton's head with his fingers stuck in his ears and you wouldn't know it was paid by the tories unless you managed to read the one second long fine print at the end.

As usual, I voted for the NDP as the Liberals don't have much of a chance at winning any BC ridings outside of Vancouver itself and Vancouver Island. Not that my vote will do much good as it will be lost in the landslide victory for the conservative candidate in this mostly rural backwater with plenty of oil, imported newfies and farmers.

Likewise, for the past couple of weeks, Conservative incumbent Rahim Jaffer's campaign has been airing some very nasty attack ads against NDP candidate Linda Duncan. This is directly in response to polls showing that it is a tight race between the two.

I'm happy that Edmonton was capable of electing at least one non-conservative. Yeah!

So long, Mr Jaffer. Don't let the door hit you on the way out!

I admit, though, that watching the poll results trickle in was nerve wracking as Duncan originally had a slim lead after which Jaffer rolled ahead to a 1400-vote lead. But as the last polls came in, Duncan steadily narrowed the margin and ended with about a 400-vote lead. Jaffer hasn't yet conceded the election because the "special" ballots (military and mail in) haven't been counted yet--and as of last night hadn't been found yet either.

Here's hoping those won't change the outcome. Jaffer, previously voted as the Laziest MP, deserves to be punted out on his ass. It seems that a lot of the traditional Liberal support went to Duncan with this goal in mind.

[Solauren]

I've done my crunch...

My source data comes from here, the electrions canada website.

The reason the Conservatives keep winning is because of the 'Left wing' split between the Liberals and NDP.
Hell, it's also part of the reason the BQ get some of there seats.

Canadian Election Results, 2008.
Conservatives: 143 (12 short of a Majority)
Liberals: 76
NDP: 37
Independent: 2
BQ: 50

You merge the Liberals + NDP into one party (assuming no votes change), and here's the results you get.
Conservatives: 89 (less then the combined total that the Liberals + NDP have now). A loss of 54 seats
Liberal/NDP Merged Party: 176 (21 more then they need to form a majority). A gain of 63 seats
Independent: 2
BQ: 41 (a loss of 9 seats).

Surprising?

It doesn't matter. The Liberals managed to get majority governments while fighting off the NDP. Also what you are doing is more like merging Libs and NDP and using a proprtional representation style election rather than past the post. If you have the list of every riding and then merge the votes from the Libs and NDP then we'd get a better answer.

That's what I did. However, I didn't think anyone would want me posting the voting details of all 308 ridings, so I just posted the summaries.

[Phantasee]

What, cool, calm, collected Stevie sweating? Hah! That guy must be a reptile, his blood runs so cold.

I'm somewhat satisfied with the results. I met my MP on Sunday at a dinner organized to pimp the Conservative candidates running in Edmonton (Rona Ambrose didn't come, though. I was bummed). First time since the guy ran last time (Mike Lake in Millwoods-Beaumont). He seemed like a decent enough guy, but he's just not been involved very much at the community level. Unfortunately, I have personal issues with the Liberal candidate, and would rather see yet another Tory MP elected than see her and her campaign succeed. I know it's stupid, but fuck them. They lost my vote last election, when she couldn't even win the nomination.

I ended up voting Green. I was supposed to scrutineer (is that a verb?) for the Conservative candidate in my riding but I ended up somewhere else between going to his office for my papers and reporting to my polling place. The things we do for pretty girls, eh? Skipped out on an election night, had to call up my friend to get the results before I went home so I could pretend I was just back from the victory party (I knew he was going to win pretty big). And the worst part is that I volunteered to scrutineer for him because I knew he was going to have a huge party after. Ah well...