US Election 2008 Results Thread

[Seggybop]

Poll Closing Times, and what to expect as the night goes on
Note: All times EST (UTC -5). Some states that spam multiple time zones have different closing times for different locations; I will only list the times at which all polls in a given state are closed. State electoral vote totals are in parentheses.

(snip)

That was a great summarization. Thanks for taking the time to write that out for everyone.

[The Romulan Republic]

Here we go again. CNN is reporting getting a lot of calls reporting problems with registration, mechanical faliurs, and voter access

They're especially getting problems in Pennsylvania. I wonder how McCain's been planning on winning that crucial state?

[The Romulan Republic]

Also, how the fuck does CNN get to post exit poll results before the polls close? Won't that potentially influence the results?

[SirNitram]

Also, how the fuck does CNN get to post exit poll results before the polls close? Won't that potentially influence the results?

An Exit Poll is simply asking people as they come out, and applying snap poll mathematics to it. And yes, it can influence the voting patterns of others.

Exit Polling, however, suffers from alot of flaws, above and beyond snap-polling.

[Duckie]

There have been 35,000 complains placed to CNN's election hotline, 3000 from Florida alone. 2000 from Virginia, and 1500 from Pennsylvania. In Virginia, that's 255 complaints per million people to CNN's hotline.

[Gandalf]

CNN is reporting that among other problems, there's complaints about damp ballots.

How does that happen?

[Duckie]

CNN is reporting that among other problems, there's complaints about damp ballots.

How does that happen?

It's raining. People's ballots got wet from their hands and clothes being wet touching the ballot paper inside the station.

[Duckie]

Pre-Election Congress Results as a reminder:

Senate: 49 Democratic (12 up for election), 2 Independent (Sanders, Lieberman), 49 Republican (23 up for election)
House: 236 Democratic, 199 Republican (all up for election)
Governor: 28 Democratic (6 up for election), 22 Republican (5 up for election)

[The Romulan Republic]

I see now. They aren't actually releasing numbers on who's voting for who overall. The exit polls are just saying which issues are considered the most important, and also who's winning on specific issues.

[Gandalf]

According to CNN, 72% of new voters went for Obama.

Wow.

[Schuyler Colfax]

What the fuck is with the scary ass Michelle Obama picture on the bottom? I freaking shat bricks when I saw it. Cindy McCain in the picture looks almost as scary.

[The Romulan Republic]

According to CNN, 72% of new voters went for Obama.

Wow.

Combine that with the record high turn out, and it's a good night to be a Democrat.

[Duckie]

Florida early voter turnout was half of the entire vote in 2004.

1/3rd of Florida has already voted.

Yeah, so, at this rate, we could get 70, 80 percent turnout in Florida and other key states. Obama's GOTV and Ground Game has swamped McCain for weeks. I've been saying it for weeks. MSNBC is now saying it out loud.

[RedImperator]

Don't start celebrating because of the exit polls. They're notoriously buggy; Nate Silver over at 538 is basically imploring everyone to ignore them.

[Duckie]

Don't start celebrating because of the exit polls. They're notoriously buggy; Nate Silver over at 538 is basically imploring everyone to ignore them.

Only one part seems sensible to listen to to me: the "What is your biggest concern"

Listen to this: 71% of voters are afraid of new terrorist attacks. But, terrorism only is the chief concern of 9% of people.

61% of the voters are concerned about the Economy.

That doesn't say anything about whom they think is better for the economy, and so I think it's safe from inaccuracies.

[Agent Sorchus]

I heard from the people giving out the I voted stickers a half of the eligible voting populace of Colorado voted early.

[ArcturusMengsk]

HuffPo exit polls, for those of you interested:

VIRGINIA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM

-- 22% of the vote is African American and Obama is winning 91% of it.
-- Among white voters, 58% are backing McCain, while 41% are supporting Obama. In 2004, Kerry won 32% of the vote here while Bush won 68% of it.
-- 72% disapprove of the job Bush is doing; only 27% approve.
-- More than half of voters think McCain will continue Bush's policies; fewer think he will take the country in a different direction.
-- Obama is winning the support of both men and women, but white men and white women are backing McCain.
-- Among whites, one in five said race was a factor in their vote today and they backed Mccain.
-- More blacks (4 in 10) said race was a factor and they voted overwhelmingly for Obama.
-- Obama looks to be improving on Kerry's margins in Northern Virginia.
-- Most voters say McCain as the candidate on the attack: nearly 7 in 10 say he attacked Obama unfairly; fewer than half say Obama attacked McCain unfairly.

INDIANA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM

-- The economy is the top issue here (as it is nationally) and Obama appears to be benefitting from that. Among economy voters, Obama 56% to 43%.
-- White working class (those without a college degree and earn less than $50K) are backing Obama slightly over McCain by 51% to 48%.
-- Men are divided in their support, while Obama has the advantage with women.
-- 42% of voters are white evangelicals, up from 35% in 2004. McCain is getting 68% of their support. Bush captured 77% of the vote in 2004.
-- 35% of voters in IN were looking for a candidate who could bring about change, while almost as many (33%) were looking for someone who shares their values. The change voters are supporting Obama, while the values voters are supporting McCain.

GEORGIA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM

-- 30% of voters are African American (up from 25% in 2004) and 97% are backing Obama.
-- Whites are backing McCain by about the same margin they supported Bush in 2004.
-- The top candidate quality was values, closely followed by change. Those who selected values as the most important quality backed McCain, while the change voters supported Obama.

NORTH CAROLINA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:30 PM

-- 22% of voters were African American (26% in 2004) and Obama is getting 97% of their vote. As expected, an improvement on Kerry's performance four years ago.
-- White voters are backing McCain by 62% to 37%.
-- 11% of voters in NC are new voters, voting for the first time this year, they too have the economy on their minds and 3 in 4 of them are backing Obama.
-- Change and values are nearly tied for the #1 quality. Obama wins the change people, while McCain takes the values people.

OHIO -- POLL CLOSE: 7:30 PM

-- 86% are worried about the direction of the economy, including more than half who are very worried. (Obama is getting the support of those worried voters.)
-- Hillary Clinton won the primary here, and Obama is getting the support of 82% of Democrats who backed her in that contest. 16% are backing McCain.
-- 12% of voters in Ohio are black, up from 10% in 2004. 98% of them are backing Obama.
-- Both white women and white women are going for McCain.
-- More voters see view Obama has a candidate who is in touch with people like them, while more voters see McCain has having the experience to serve effectively as president.
-- Still, 4 in 10 Ohio voters think Obama's positions on the issues are too liberal.

PENNSYLVANIA -- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM

-- A quarter of voters in PA are white Catholics and they are splitting their votes. Kerry lost these voters to Bush by 48% to 52%.
-- Seniors are one-fifth of the electorate and just over half are backing Obama. These voters narrowly backed Kerry by 51% to 48% in 2004.
-- Obama is getting about two-thirds of the support of voters age 18-29. Kerry won 60% of them in 2004.
-- Most voters in the Keystone state made up their minds long ago, but among those who decided in the last week (just over 1 in 10 voters), they are narrowly backing McCain by 51% to 47%.

FLORIDA -- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM

-- 13% of voters here were Hispanics (15% in 2004) and they are breaking for Obama by 55% to 45%. This is a reversal from 2004 when Hispanics backed Bush by 56% to 44%.
-- Seniors (24% of voters) are backing McCain over Obama by 53% 46%. In 2004 Bush edged out Kerry by 51% to 48%.
-- 13% of voters are African American in Florida and they and 95% are backing Obama.
-- White men and white women are backing McCain.
-- McCain wins on experience here, while more voters see Obama as being more in touch with people like them.

MISSOURI -- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM

-- Young voters (19% of voters) are backing Obama; while seniors (17% of voters) give McCain the edge.
-- White evangelical are 38% of the vote in Missouri and they are backing McCain by 67% to 32%. Not as strong a showing as Bush in 2004.

Use them however you want.

[The Romulan Republic]

Just got some preliminary numbers from Kentucky. 59/40 McCain.

[RedImperator]

Just got some preliminary numbers from Kentucky. 59/40 McCain.

It doesn't really matter for Kentucky, but a percentage is pretty useless without a percentage of precincts reporting, too.

[CmdrWilkens]

I will link to two articles that everyone should read in regards to exit polling:

The first is the aforementioned Nate Silver and 538.com on the 10 biggest problems with exit polls.

The second is an article by Mark Blumental of Pollster.com on some additional thoughts with exit pollign and the problems behind it. If you want a much more technical look into things (still without the math though) I would recommend reading the linked article within this one referencing RFK JRs assessment of the 2004 election and why the "exit polling proves fraud" meme is just wrong.

[Duckie]

Just got some preliminary numbers from Kentucky. 59/40 McCain.

It doesn't really matter for Kentucky, but a percentage is pretty useless without a percentage of precincts reporting, too.

Less than 1%. Less than 0.1%, if he's getting them from where I got them. McConnel seems to be getting a far tougher race than House Republicans and McCain though, at least in rural northern Kentucky where precincts are starting to report from.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

HuffPo exit polls, for those of you interested: Use them however you want.

Toss 'em straight into the trash. Exit polling is only slightly more useful and accurate than asking Sylvia Browne for her prediction on election results. The real show starts in T-minus 35 minutes.

[CmdrWilkens]

HuffPo exit polls, for those of you interested: Use them however you want.

Toss 'em straight into the trash. Exit polling is only slightly more useful and accurate than asking Sylvia Browne for her prediction on election results. The real show starts in T-minus 35 minutes.

Actually its already started. about 70% of Indiana and 50-60% of Kentucky now have their polls closed.

[Duckie]

Vigo County, Indiana: 39% of Precincts Reporting.

Vigo

The county is one of the best bellwether regions for voting U.S. presidential elections; it has voted for the winning candidate in every election since 1960.

2008: Obama +15
2004: Bush +6.4

On MSNBC Olbermann just asked someone if they had Vigo numbers in. CNN has the above stats.

[Kodiak]

CNN is reporting EXTREMELY early results in Kentuky have Mccain up 65%-35% w/ about 8k votes counted, Indiana has Obama up 51%-49% w/ 40k votes counted.