Gaza situation discussion

[weemadando]

Apparently in response to the death of Nizar, Hamas announced that they have annexed East Jerusalem. Good luck with that fellas, I'm sure that the Israeli's will be handing you the keys any minute now.

[hongi]

Hamas announced that they have annexed East Jerusalem.

Them and what army?

[CJvR]

Apparently in response to the death of Nizar, Hamas announced that they have annexed East Jerusalem.

Amusing, that means that they have to have recognized the Israeli annexation...

[CJvR]

No, you moron, I posited that the collateral deaths from such a raid will be lower, not zero. I can't believe I actually have to explain that an aerial assault with gigantic bombs carries a far greater maximum damage potential than a bunch of guys with guns.

LOWER!?!?! You seriously think streetfighting against an entrenched light irregular division with zero regards for the rules of war in a city packed with hostile civilians will generate fewer civilian casualties than the current aerial campaign?

[The Kernel]

LOL! And here I thought you tried to appear a humanitarian.
Have you any idea what invading and fighting house by house will do to a city?

Stop pretending this is a simple police action, this is war.

Of course there is more danger in going door-to-door, I already fucking said that myself. It would be easier and might lead to less loss of life if the LAPD routinely blew up meth labs rather than storm them...are you suggesting we do that too?

Only because Lincoln didn't have an airforce. It took the US authorities several years and hundreds of thousands of casualties to "arrest" those responsible for shelling Fort Sumpter.

Is that the kind of police action you want in Gaza? It would probably solve the Gaza problem permanently - there wouldn't be a Gaza city afterwards...

Let me get this straight: you are comparing the population of Gaza with its ragtag militias as being the same as the Confederate army?

When the Palestinians field an army capable of going toe-to-toe with the IDF you can get back to me with this ridiculous argument; until then it's a giant false analogy.

[The Kernel]

If a militia in the US has a large illegal arms cache we do this to them:

You just made my point dumb ass. The ATF was rightly criticized for bungling the Waco situation.

Besides, in case you missed this in your analysis of history, the ATF didn't drop a bomb on the BD compound to cause that fire, it was the BDs themselves who set it.

Anyways, that's a red herring. The caches are owned by the legitimate government of the Gaza Strip. The illegality isn't the existence of them, but the placement of them in civilian homes. The fact that a government is attacking another makes this a war. You don't arrest your enemies in war, you kill them.

Israel has repeatedly denied the legitimacy of the Gaza government under Hamas. They can't have it both ways: either Hamas is the legitimate government of Gaza or they aren't.

Besides, Hamas is a government without any power or sovereignty whatsoever. The IDF still has full control over Gaza's borders and does not recognize it as a separate state.

Also, lets take a look at what happened when a similarly trained power went into a fairly hostile area to arrest a man: the raid in Somalia where the US attempted to arrest Aidid, made famous in Black Hawk Down. The result of that raid was the deaths of an estimated 500-2000 Somalis, and 18 US servicemen. And that was just to capture a couple guys in the same location.

Somalia was a sovereign nation and the UN was there as peacekeepers dumbass. Gaza is a defacto part of Israel and the IDF has a responsibility to not carpet bomb their own citizens.

[The Kernel]

LOWER!?!?! You seriously think streetfighting against an entrenched light irregular division with zero regards for the rules of war in a city packed with hostile civilians will generate fewer civilian casualties than the current aerial campaign?

And what exactly is the purpose behind the IDF's activities in Gaza? If it is to establish the rule of law then arial bombardments aren't going to do a damn thing now are they? A police incursion might be costlier in lives on both sides, but it's the only option that would actually accomplish that goal.

If however their goal is merely to grind the Palestinian infrastructure into the ground and fuck the consequences then arial bombardments will do quite nicely.

[MKSheppard]

Beyond that, I find it very difficult to believe that they're being that precise with air strikes.

Strategy Page

Sticking It To Hamas
January 1, 2009: Four months ago, Israel ordered a thousand of the new U.S. 250 pound Small Diameter Bomb (SDB, or GBU-39). Apparently these weapons arrived quickly, because many SDBs were used during the recent Israeli air raids on Gaza.

For example, they just bombed Nazir Rayan's apartment building into oblivion with a 2,000-pound bomb. His entire apartment building. His four wives were killed, plus most of his children. Not exactly surgical.

Actually it is.

Link

Independent confirmation of the tactic known as "Knocking on the Roof" that I found on a pro Israel blog:

The IDF has made frequent use of what is known as "knocking on the roof": Militants are warned by phone when a residential building used to store arms will be bombed, and told to vacate the premised together with their neighbors. The weapons caches are hit only after the residents leave.

Hamas has tried placing civilians on the roofs of such buildings when the phone call warning comes in. In these cases, the IDF fired antitank missiles near the building, and in a few cases the residents left.

This jives with the steps I've seen posted on The Muqata.

1. The IAF calls the house they're about to hit that they are about to bomb it.
2. The residents send all the women and children to the roof of the building with the understanding that the IAF won't strike civilians.
3. The AF has developed a small missile that creates a small non-lethal explosion without shrapnel to scare off all the civilians [ATGM].
4. When they have left the area the building is hit with the big guns.

By the way, the IAF did call Nazir Rayan and told him that they were gonna bomb the building. Guess what? He decided to stay in the building WITH HIS ENTIRE FAMILY too.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

No, you moron, I posited that the collateral deaths from such a raid will be lower, not zero. I can't believe I actually have to explain that an aerial assault with gigantic bombs carries a far greater maximum damage potential than a bunch of guys with guns.

LOWER!?!?! You seriously think streetfighting against an entrenched light irregular division with zero regards for the rules of war in a city packed with hostile civilians will generate fewer civilian casualties than the current aerial campaign?

If Hamas follows Hezbollah's tactics, they'd be a network of tunnels and bunkers running under civilian buildings. I suppose collateral damage is perfectly avoidable.

[[R_H]]

Palestinians Use Extended Range 122mm Rockets form China for Long-Range Attacks

By mid-day Wednesday (Dec. 31, 2008) the Palestinians fired more than 50 rockets at Israeli cities and settlements wounding five people. Some of these rockets reached as far as Beer Sheba, almost 40 km from the Gaza border. The Palestinians have already reached this range when the towns of Ashdod and Yavneh were attacked two days ago, killing one person and wounding several others. According to the Deputy Commander of Israel's Home Front Command, Brig. General Abraham Ben David, these attacks represent a new dimension for the enemy's capability but are probably at the limit of the Palestian rockets.

Previously Palestinian Hamas relied on the 'homemade' Qasam or Iranian produced Grad rockets, enhanced at the Hamas workshops. These rockets could reach 11-12 miles into the Israeli area. Today, Israel officially confirmed today that the rocket recently fired against Beer Sheba were not Qasam or standard Grads rockets that were already familiar to the Israelis, but but standard 122mm produced by China. Iran is also producing 122mm rockets, but the types produced by Iran are not capable of reaching a range of 30-40km (about 19 – 25 miles).

The Chinese rockets referred to by General Ben-David, are most likely rockets of the 122mm version of the WeiShi family of rocket, ( WS-1E) developed and produced by the Sichuan Aerospace Industry Corporation (SCAIC) also known as Base 062. According to Sinodefence website, these rockets didn't enter production, yet apparently, some reached Hammas and exploded in Beer Sheba. WS-1E was developed for the Type 90 truck mounted multiple rocket launchers. Several versions of different calibers of the WeiShi artillery rocket systems are employed by the People's Republic of China Army and were widely exported to third world countries.

The WS-1E rocket measures about 2.9 meters (depending on type and range) and weighs 61-74 kg. Uunlike the ubiquitous Grad, these Chinese rockets are using both fin and spin stabilization to achieve high accuracy and low dispersion of multiple rockets groups. Unlike the Grad which uses a fixed amount of propellant and warhead, designed for maximum range of 20 km, the Chinese rocket uses a modular design, where some of the payload can be exchanged for propellant.

The two versions of this rocket are the 20km and 40km. Both types use a single chamber FG-42/43 solid rocket propellant uses an advanced hydroxy-terminated polybutadine (HTPB) composition. The rocket's payload consists of a modular warhead weighing 18-22kg in the standard version (20-40km version) or 26-28kg in the short range version (10-12kg). The standard high explosive (RDX-based) warhead can be enhanced with the ZDB-2 blast fragmentation warhead, comprising high explosive charge, containing reduced RDX-based explosive charge, over 4,000 steel ball matrix liner and prefabricated fragmentation sheath, extending lethal effect over a radius of about 100 meters. A thermobaric warhead is also available, comprising of a 17kg warhead containing 6.2 kg of energetic composition and 1,500 steel balls for dual-purpose effect optimized for urban warfare, and the SZB-1 anti-personnel and anti-armor mines containing submunitions for area denial attack.

[MKSheppard]

Apparently the reason the IDF used a 1 ton bomb to take out the apartment complex Rayan was in was because it was a known weapons and arms cache; they just weren't expecting him to be stupid enough to stay there...but were more than happy to oblige his death wish. It's a shame he kept his family there though...

[hongi]

According to Sinodefence website, these rockets didn't enter production, yet apparently, some reached Hammas and exploded in Beer Sheba

How?

[CJvR]

Of course there is more danger in going door-to-door, I already fucking said that myself. It would be easier and might lead to less loss of life if the LAPD routinely blew up meth labs rather than storm them...are you suggesting we do that too?

Well if said meth labs were defended by some 20000 armed fanatics who amused themselves by shelling surrounding neighborhoods on a regular basis how long do you think it would take before the army and NG was called in?

Let me get this straight: you are comparing the population of Gaza with its ragtag militias as being the same as the Confederate army?

No just the situations. You need to go in and militarily restore control of the area before you can let the police do the policing. The only way to do that is to smash the military opposition and that will cause far more carnage than the current IDF operation.

And what exactly is the purpose behind the IDF's activities in Gaza? If it is to establish the rule of law then arial bombardments aren't going to do a damn thing now are they? A police incursion might be costlier in lives on both sides, but it's the only option that would actually accomplish that goal.

The purpose of the IDF operation is to end the constant rocket barrage from Gaza, surely you have not missed that? As for going in on the ground that just might happen but there is no need to rush.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

According to Sinodefence website, these rockets didn't enter production, yet apparently, some reached Hammas and exploded in Beer Sheba

How?

From China, to Iran to Hamas? The Iranians do have indigenous rocket production capacity.

[CJvR]

If Hamas follows Hezbollah's tactics, they'd be a network of tunnels and bunkers running under civilian buildings.

Filling the tunnels with VX gas would be appropriate.

[hongi]

Filling the tunnels with VX gas would be appropriate.

I don't think the world will look too kindly on the use of chemical weapons in urban areas. Thermobarics are the answer you're looking for. If I'm not wrong, Israel uses them already.

From China, to Iran to Hamas? The Iranians do have indigenous rocket production capacity.

I'm just confused as to how it could have ended up in the hands of Hamas when it's not supposed to have even started production.

[Ace Pace]

A little bit of information for those who think Qasam rockets don't kill. The only reason fatalities have gone down over the last year is because Sderot and the rest of Otef Gaza are littered every few meters with protective enclosured, which are basically concrete tubes with room for between 5 to 50 people. Schools have been hit and the only reason there haven't been injuries is because school for the entire region has been cancelled. These rockets are quite deadly but people are somehow used to living in a situation where every second is spent scanning the territory for where to hide from rockets.

I am not going to comment right now on what's going on with IDF actions (simply because what I know is summed up in this thread and a few briefings during boot) but this ludicrous tangent that Qasam rockets are somehow 'petty and insignificent' is hilarious.

[[R_H]]

Gaza rockets put Israel’s nuclear plant in battle zone

There were growing fears in Israel last night that Hamas missiles could threaten its top-secret nuclear facility at Dimona.

Rocket attacks from Gaza have forced Israelis to flee in ever greater numbers and military chiefs have been shaken by the size and sophistication of the militant group’s arsenal.

In Beersheba, until a few days ago a sleepy desert town in southern Israel, there is little sign of the 186,000 inhabitants. Schools are closed and the streets of shuttered shops echo with the howl of sirens warning of incoming rockets. Israeli planes, meanwhile, began a new stage yesterday in their offensive on Gaza, killing Nizar Rayyan, a senior Hamas official. The one-tonne bomb in Jabaliya is also understood to have killed two of his four wives and four of his twelve children. More than 400 Palestinians have been killed in the six days of Israeli attacks.

Despite a diplomatic mission by Tzipi Livni, the Israeli Foreign Minister, to Paris, the Israeli army continued to muster thousands of troops and scores of tanks along Gaza’s border for a possible ground offensive. Israel’s airstrikes are designed to blunt Hamas’s capacity to fire its new Grad missiles deep into its territory. The weapons are smuggled in through tunnels and by sea, replacing homemade Qassam rockets.

Israeli officials say that Hamas has also acquired dozens of Iranian-made Fajr-3 missiles with an even longer range. Many fear that as the group acquires ever more sophisticated weaponry it is only a matter of time before the nuclear installation at Dimona, 20 miles east of Beersheba, falls within its sights. Dimona houses Israel’s only nuclear reactor and is believed to be where nuclear warheads are stored.

“Maybe Hamas will get a big present from Iran or Hezbollah, a few good long-range missiles and they’ll use it,” said Limor Brina, 40, a jeweller who is learning the lessons of life under rocket threat: she sleeps with her clothes on and heads to a shelter whenever the siren sounds.

Israel’s worst nightmare is that soon all its cities will be within range either of the Hezbollah Katyushas arrayed on the Lebanese border to the north or the increasingly sophisticated missiles stockpiled by Hamas to the south. Both groups have links to Israel’s archenemy Iran.

Israel has said that its aim is to smash Hamas’s rocket-firing capability but also to topple the hardline Islamist regime that seized power in the Gaza Strip in 2007 after bloody street battles with its secular rivals Fatah. Until that goal is achieved, many in Beersheba are packing their bags and heading for Tel Aviv or Eilat.

“Maybe 30 or 40 per cent of people have left the city,” said Ron Shukron, 26, running one of the few grocery shops still open. As he spoke a siren echoed through the empty streets. With only 15 seconds to take cover, he stepped under a reinforced support beam in the ceiling. Seconds later came the dull thud of a rocket exploding on the edge of town.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I'm just confused as to how it could have ended up in the hands of Hamas when it's not supposed to have even started production.

Sinodefence isn't the most accurate, and it's quite possible the Chinese sold the rocket design and then the Iranians produced it themselves.

Either that, or the author mistook the design of the rocket. There are lots of 122mm rocket designs out there.

[[R_H]]

I'm just confused as to how it could have ended up in the hands of Hamas when it's not supposed to have even started production.

Sinodefence isn't the most accurate, and it's quite possible the Chinese sold the rocket design and then the Iranians produced it themselves.

Either that, or the author mistook the design of the rocket. There are lots of 122mm rocket designs out there.

The Fajr-3 rockets have a range of up to 40km but they're not 122mm rockets, they're 240mm rockets and quite a bit larger than 122mm rockets (to start, they're 5.2m long). So it's not likely that Hamas is using Fajr-3 rockets either, as they'd be quite difficult to smuggle into Gaza from Egypt.

[Elfdart]

The IDF has made frequent use of what is known as "knocking on the roof": Militants are warned by phone when a residential building used to store arms will be bombed, and told to vacate the premised together with their neighbors. The weapons caches are hit only after the residents leave.
Hamas has tried placing civilians on the roofs of such buildings when the phone call warning comes in. In these cases, the IDF fired antitank missiles near the building, and in a few cases the residents left.

This jives with the steps I've seen posted on The Muqata.

Another pile of horseshit about how advance notice is given before bombing civilian targets. Of course the "terrorists" would NEVER flee the premises and take as much gear with them as possible once the inhabitants were warned, now would they?

1. The IAF calls the house they're about to hit that they are about to bomb it.
2. The residents send all the women and children to the roof of the building with the understanding that the IAF won't strike civilians.
3. The AF has developed a small missile that creates a small non-lethal explosion without shrapnel to scare off all the civilians [ATGM].
4. When they have left the area the building is hit with the big guns.

Wanna invest in Madoff's hedge fund? I ask because if you believe any of that bullshit, you probably would.

By the way, the IAF did call Nazir Rayan and told him that they were gonna bomb the building. Guess what? He decided to stay in the building WITH HIS ENTIRE FAMILY too.

As the war in Lebanon showed, the IDF and IAF have a habit of bombing, strafing and shelling civilians who flee their homes. All the while making up fairy tales about how they were warned so blowing up kids is OK.

[The Kernel]

Well if said meth labs were defended by some 20000 armed fanatics who amused themselves by shelling surrounding neighborhoods on a regular basis how long do you think it would take before the army and NG was called in?

Nice strawman, but using the military to pacify the situation is not my problem. The tactic of blowing up buildings where militants are hiding is.

No just the situations. You need to go in and militarily restore control of the area before you can let the police do the policing. The only way to do that is to smash the military opposition and that will cause far more carnage than the current IDF operation.

What military opposition? Do the Palestinians have tanks? An air force? ANYTHING besides a bunch of poorly trained yahoos with small arms, RPGs and third rate rockets?

How exactly does the Palestinian militias pose a significant threat to the IDF?

The purpose of the IDF operation is to end the constant rocket barrage from Gaza, surely you have not missed that?

And how do you figure that bombing apartment buildings is going to stop the rocket attacks? In fact they've INCREASED since the arial campaign has begun.

As for going in on the ground that just might happen but there is no need to rush.

Of course there is you fucking idiot since arial strikes are not going to solve the underlying problem and will in fact only inflame tensions and kill a lot of innocent people in the process.

[[R_H]]

HAMAS Rockets

The year 2008 saw a dramatic increase in the extent of HAMAS rocket fire and mortar attacks on Israel, with a total of 3,278 rockets and mortar shells landingin Israeli territory (1,750 rockets and 1,528 mortar shells). These numbers are double those of 2007 and 2006, years which marked a five-fold increase over prior years. There was also a significant increase in the number of Israeli residents exposed to rocket fire. Prior to 2008, the city of Sderot (about 20,000 residents) as well as villages around the Gaza Strip were the main targets of rocket fire and mortar shelling. In 2008, the cities of Ashkelon and Netivot came under attack by Grad artillery rockets with a range of about 20 kilometers. Later, during Operation Cast Lead, Ashdod, Beersheba, and other cities were attacked by a previously un-identified rocket with a range of 40 kilometers from the Gaza Strip. This rocket created a new reality in which nearly one million Israeli residents [about 15 percent of the entire population] were at risk.

Israel launched an air assault on Gaza on Saturday 27 December 2008, following a series of rocket attacks on its territory and the collapse of a shaky truce that had been in effect for the past six months. Israel's military intelligence chief said Hamas' ability to fire rockets had been reduced by 50%. Hamas rocket fire dropped off sharply, from more than 130 on Saturday 27 December 2008 to just over 20 on Sunday 28 December 2008. Hamas launched a total of 40 rockets and mortars at Israel Sunday 28 December 2008, bringing to around 300 the number fired since the six- month truce ended.Hamas launched an upsurge in rocket and mortar attacks from Gaza once it declared an end to a truce with Israel on 19 December 2008. By 18 December 2008 Palestinian militants had fired at least 40 missiles into Israel since Tuesday 16 December 2008. On Wednesday 17 December 2008 no less than 24 rockets landed in the Western Negev desert area. On Thursday 18 December 2008 a further seven rockets landed in Israel. On December 24, five days after the lull arrangement ended, the cities of Ashqelon , Netivot and Sderot, the towns and villages near the Gaza Strip, the crossings and IDF bases were subjected to a massive rocket and mortar shell attack. At least 60 rockets and mortar shells were fired, most of them by Hamas. Palestinian militants fired over 40 rockets and 20 mortar shells at southern Israeli border towns in the largest daily attack since the end of a six-month ceasefire. Hamas responded by firing more rockets and mortars into southern Israel.Musheir al-Masri, a Hamas spokesman in the Palestinian Legislative Council, said (Filastin al-‘An website, December 24) that the rockets which had been launched were only the first message and threatened to extend the attacks beyond what had been carried out so far. He guaranteed that Israel would “be hit in a way it had never been before,” and that he was not afraid of Israel threats. The population of the villages bordering on the Gaza Strip, as well as Sderot and Ashqelon, would not be secure “as long as Palestinians are not secure”.

Hamas now has longer range Iranian-made rockets, and several hit near the Israeli port city of Ashdod for the first time, 23 miles [37 km] from Gaza.Israel's Home Front Command recommended that all communities within a 40-kilometer range of Gaza be hooked up to the Color Red incoming missile alert system.

On 28 December 2008, two impacts of artillery rockets were identified near the towns of Gan Yavne and Bnei Darom. The rockets were launched from the northern Gaza Strip and attained ranges of some 33-34 km. Examination showed that they were Chinese-made rockets with similar characteristics to standard 122-mm rockets. The maximum range of those rockets is up to 40 km.

While news accounts reference these as Grad rockets [the Russian nomenclature] or "enhanced Katyusha", the rockets used in the attack on Ashdod must have a range twice that of the BM-21 Grad. Photographs of a rocket that landed near Gan Yavne, northeast of Ashdod on 28 December, do indicate that it was a 122-mm rocket. This is inconsistent with the idea that HAMAS was using Iranian-made rockets, either the Oghab with a range of 34-45 km or the Fajr-3 / Ra'ad with a range of 45 km.

The WeiShi [literally "Guardian", (WS) family of the multiple launch rocket systems were developed by China's Sichuan Aerospace Industry Corporation (SCAIC, also known as Base 062) in Chengdu, Sichuan Province. The WeiShi series includes the 122mm WS-1E with a range of 40km. The WS-1 series weapon system did not enter PLA service, and was not known to have received any orders from foreign customers.

Grad

On 28 February 2008 at least 10 Grad rockets hit the coastal city of Ashkelon, about ten miles from the Israeli border with the Gaza Strip. At least 60 more Qassams, targeted Sderot that day. During the first few days of March 2008 dozens of Qassam rockets and Grad-type Katyushas were fired at Ashkelon, Sderot and communities bordering Gaza. Ashkelon is only a few minutes away from the Qassam-battered city of Sderot, the principal target of Qassam attacks. The western edge of Sderot is about a mile from the border with Gaza. The Israeli Center for Victims of Terror and War found that 28 percent of adults and 30 percent of children of Sderot have post-traumatic stress disorder. when Hamas broke open the border with Egypt, Hamas was able to bring in more of the manufactured Katyusha rockets.
Qassam

Production of the shorter range Qassam rocket began in September 2001, following the outbreak of the Al-Aqsa Intifada. The rockets have been manufactured and deployed primarily from the Gaza Strip although Israeli Defense Forces have seized rockets in the West Bank. The Qassam rocket is cylindrical and contains a small warhead on its tip. The rocket contains four small stabilizing wings on one end, a middle section containing the engine, and an attached warhead with a detonating fuse on the other end. The rocket is constructed from iron approximately 2.5-3mm thick.

The rocket gets its name from Sheikh Izz ad-Din al-Qassam [less commonly, Izz Al-Din Al-Qassim], a militant Syrian preacher who advocated rebellion against European colonial powers in the Middle East during the 1920s and 1930s. Izza-Din Al-Qassam, a Muslim Brotherhood member, fought the French in Syria, lost and then took his fight against the British and Jewish Haganah in Palestine. He preached Jihad (holy war) and revolution against both the British and the Zionists, and organized and led the first Palestinian guerilla group. He was killed in action on 19 November 1935 in the first Palestinian guerilla action against British forces. His martyrdom triggered the Great Revolt of 1936-39. Hamas has named part of its organization after Qassam and in recent years developed the Qassam rocket.

The Qassam rocket was first launched into Israeli territory on March 5, 2002, by the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades. While the rocket lacks a guidance system and is very inaccurate, the initial psychological effect of the rockets upon Israel has been significant. Prior to the Qassam, Palestinian militants lacked the means to conduct long range attacks. The simple nature of the small rocket makes it exceedingly hard for Israeli officials to shut down its production. The IDF has noted that militants commonly hide a Qassam in a commercial truck, drive to a clearing near the Gaza border and launch the rocket. One Hamas website states that this takes only 15 minutes.

In response to Qassam rocket attacks, the Israeli government has launched raids against production factories and launching sites within the Gaza Strip. The Israeli goverment has also installed early warning radar systems to notify communities of Qassam launches and to instruct residents to move to bomb shelters.

Numerous variants of the Qassam rocket have been developed and launched. The Qassam-1, first used in October 2001, had a maximum range of approximately 3-4.5km. The rocket was approximately 60mm in diameter and weighed about 5.5kg. The Qassam-2, used primarily from 2002-2005 was approximately 180cm long, had a maximum range of 8-9.5km and could carry a payload of 5-9kg. Beginning in 2005, newer types of Qassam rockets known as the Qassam-3 were developed, possessing a maximum range of 10-12km and carrying a payload of 10-20kg.

A total of about 450 Qassam rocket attacks were launched against Israel over the two years 2003 and 2004.

In November 2003 Israel Television Channel Two Military Affairs Correspondent Ronnie Daniel reported that the Palestinians were testing stages of a new generation Qassam 4 that was to have a range of 17 kilometers. Since September 2005, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades developed a Qassam rocket with a maximum range of 15-16.5km range and two rockets with diameters of approximately 115mm and 155mm, respectively. Additionally, in June 2006 and again in July 2006 the Brigades fired a Qassam rocket equipped with two engines.

During 2004 HAMAS was responsible for an increase in Qassam rocket attacks. A rocket attack on Sderot on June 28 was the first fatal attack against Israelis using Qassam rockets. Two Israelis died in the attack. In September, two Israeli children were killed in Sderot from another Qassam rocket attack. In response to the continued Qassam rocket fire, the IDF launched a three-week operation on September 28, in which 130 Palestinians (among them 68 HAMAS and Palestine Islamic Jihad militants) and five Israelis died, according to press reports.

HAMAS activity dropped significantly in 2005, in part because of its adherence to the ceasefire. After agreeing to the ceasefire, Fatah's militant wing, the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, claimed credit for Qassam rocket launches from the Gaza Strip into the western Negev desert that destroyed property and injured Israeli civilians and soldiers.

During 2006 Israel grappled with the problem of Qassam rocket launches from the Gaza Strip. On numerous occasions, rockets struck Israeli communities in the western Negev desert, including Sderot, or landed near or in the city of Ashkelon. Evidence suggested that Palestinian terrorists were able, on occasion, to improve the range of the Qassams. On at least three occasions, longer-range Katyusha rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip. To address the problem of rocket launches from populated areas, the IDF modified its rules of engagement to permit its forces to fire on targets a few hundred meters from Palestinian homes and police positions. Early in 2006, Israeli security officials said Israel was not targeting HAMAS because it forbade its members to participate in Qassam rocket launches. The Israelis maintained, however, that HAMAS activists were providing assistance to militants from other terrorist groups launching Qassams.

While news accounts reference these as Grad rockets [the Russian nomenclature] or "enhanced Katyusha", the rockets used in the attack on Ashdod must have a range twice that of the BM-21 Grad. Photographs of a rocket that landed near Gan Yavne, northeast of Ashdod on 28 December, do indicate that it was a 122-mm rocket. This is inconsistent with the idea that HAMAS was using Iranian-made rockets, either the Oghab with a range of 34-45 km or the Fajr-3 / Ra'ad with a range of 45 km.

The WeiShi [literally "Guardian", (WS) family of the multiple launch rocket systems were developed by China's Sichuan Aerospace Industry Corporation (SCAIC, also known as Base 062) in Chengdu, Sichuan Province. The WeiShi series includes the 122mm WS-1E with a ranage of 40km. The WS-1 series weapon system did not enter PLA service, and was not known to have received any orders from foreign customers.

IMO, it's more likely that Hamas has gotten its hands on Sakr-36 or 9M521 or 9M522 rockets. They all have ranges of around 40km, and are in production/service.

[Axis Kast]

What military opposition? Do the Palestinians have tanks? An air force? ANYTHING besides a bunch of poorly trained yahoos with small arms, RPGs and third rate rockets?

Depending on vintage and type, a single rocket-propelled grenade can immobilize a tank or destroy an armored personnel carrier. During close-quarters fighting, HAMAS militants would probably opt for concentrated volley fire, overwhelming countermeasures such as explosive reactive armor or rail-type side-guards. Obviously, the IDF is not as invulnerable as you want us to believe.

For the second time, Mogadishu provided an instructive lesson on the effectiveness of hundreds or thousands of unseasoned, rag-tag militia against special forces operators. Considering Garrison's desire to deliver the strongest possible assistance to his men, and the chaos of the urban battlefield, one wonders how casualties would be reduced. In fact, with Israeli troops at stake, the incentive to fire indiscriminately would be much higher.

And how do you figure that bombing apartment buildings is going to stop the rocket attacks? In fact they've INCREASED since the arial campaign has begun.

They've increased because HAMAS is now fighting for its life. You eliminate a bee's nest by kicking and stomping when nothing else will do. Inevitably, the bees swarm in a finale.

If however their goal is merely to grind the Palestinian infrastructure into the ground and fuck the consequences then arial bombardments will do quite nicely.

The Israelis appear to have three objections: (1) elimination of HAMAS leadership; (2) destruction of HAMAS weapons caches; (3) demonstrative retaliation, primarily for the benefit of the Israeli public, but perhaps on the very "off" chance of souring Palestinian civilians against cooperation with HAMAS (a goal they probably recognize as pie-in-the-sky).

Israel has repeatedly denied the legitimacy of the Gaza government under Hamas. They can't have it both ways: either Hamas is the legitimate government of Gaza or they aren't.

Israel does not recognize the legitimacy of HAMAS. Even if it did, HAMAS would be considered a military antagonist.

If they were making an effort to avoid civilian casualties, they wouldn't be dropping 2,000 bombs on apartment building

If they were making no effort at all, as you claim, they would not telephone anyone ahead of time.

Yes, using commandos would result in more Israeli casualties, but it would also result in far fewer civilian casualties.

This is a fantasy built purely on the facetious premise that the Israelis are sufficiently Schwarzeneggar to get in, "do their thing," and then withdraw, without becoming mired in a terrible firefight.

When the RPGs start flying hot and heavy from windows, how do you think tank commanders and helicopter gunship pilots will react?

Los Angeles is awash with weapons too. The LAPD still somehow manages to avoid obliterating certain neighborhoods.

Because every gangster knows that if they begin using those AK-47s to tear the city apart, the National Guard will be directed to retake whole neighborhoods in Los Angeles. They are sufficiently cowed by the thought of "taking on" a conventional military. HAMAS is not.

Not to mention that the gangs don't have nearly the same kind of organization, numbers, anti-tank capability, or popular support as HAMAS. So, you've made a false analogy. Nobody is going to swallow it.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

What military opposition? Do the Palestinians have tanks? An air force? ANYTHING besides a bunch of poorly trained yahoos with small arms, RPGs and third rate rockets?

How exactly does the Palestinian militias pose a significant threat to the IDF?

Do you know how the Hezbollah managed to stalemate the Israelis in the last war? They were a highly motivated force, and they vigorously trained for a scenario where Israeli tanks would go right in an urban environment and simply attacked with several volleys of RPGs, anti-tank rockets such as Kornets, IEDs. sniper fire etc. During that war, at least 10 or so Israeli tanks were disabled, or destroyed using those tactics. By saturating the area with fire, they prevented the Israelis soldiers from their troops from supporting their tanks as well. Now granted the Israelis were quite incompetent, I think even the US military would have had some trouble as well, though probably with less problems. Also, the US military was not against using artillery fire or air support for such situations. Now, are you seriously going to suggest that Hamas is anything but "a bunched of poorly trained yahoos with small arms, RPGs, and third rate rockets" when they have Iranian support and can possibly fight quite tenaciously if they use such tactics?