Gaza situation discussion

[MKSheppard]

Another pile of horseshit about how advance notice is given before bombing civilian targets.

I Hear WIRED is lying too

Israel Calls Gazans Before Bombing
By Noah Shachtman January 02, 2009 | 10:31:01 AMCategories: Info War, Sabras
Nobody likes getting cell phone messages from strange callers. Especially not when the callers say they're about to level your house.

But residents of Gaza say those are exactly the kind of messages they're getting from the Israel Defense Forces.

According to Ha'Aretz, "Palestinians reported that in some cases, the caller leaves a message on their voice mail warning that the IDF will bomb any house where weapons are rockets are found and the owners of the houses will be the ones to suffer the consequences."

Ha'Aretz says the calls are "a new tactic meant to reduce civilian casualties." And that may be one functions of the messages. But it seems to be that the calls also serve as a mighty effective psychological operation -- one that's very much in keeping with Israel's high-tech approach to the information war.

During the 2006 war with Hezbollah, Israelis used text messages to warn residents of incoming rockets. Last week, as the airstrikes against Hamas began, "thousands of Gazans received Arabic-language cell-phone messages from the Israeli military, urging them to leave homes where militants might have stashed weapons," according to the AP.

And the Israelis aren't the only ones trying to use cell phones as a military advantage. Hamas has been sending Hebrew-language text messages to Israelis' phones, warning them that "all cities" will be threatened by the terror group's rocket attacks.

Apparently the IAF only gives these warnings if the building is mixed use; e.g it's also a legimitate apartment building with a HAMAS arms cache in the basement. If it's sole use such as being the central HAMAS HQ for that region, with the HAMAS flag flying outside, it gets blown up with no warning.

Of course the "terrorists" would NEVER flee the premises and take as much gear with them as possible once the inhabitants were warned, now would they?

Considering that the building that the dead guy was in was an arms cache; who cares if they escape with what's on their backs? Carrying out a AK-47 and RPG on you is a lot different than manhandling approximately 1 truckload of rockets out of the basement.

Secondly, the mere act of people fleeing the premises is actually informative in itself. There's approximately 1 billion UAVs in the world now, it's not that hard pick some suspicious characters who leave the building and follow them around without them knowing it, and watch where they go, which buildings they disappear into; and check that against what you know about the area.

As the war in Lebanon showed, the IDF and IAF have a habit of bombing, strafing and shelling civilians who flee their homes. All the while making up fairy tales about how they were warned so blowing up kids is OK.

If that were the case, the women and children ratio would be significantly higher than it is now.

[Coyote]

Compton isn't rocketing Pasedena; LA gangs also have not denounced LA's right to exist and vowed to destroy it by any means necessary to sieze their holy territory from the Hollywoodist Entity!

A police-based scenario would mean follow-up in courts of law... unless, of course, people are actually advocating holding Hamasniks indefinitely without filing charges. You then have problems with jurisdiction-- would Hamas recognise an Israeli court, where Israeli civilians could testify that indeed, their homes were destroyede by rockets, and the IDF could testify that, yes, those rockets were fired from Gaza by the suspects?

Would the Israelis agree to a Palestinian court where the Gazans could say, no, Achmed was at my sister's birthday party that day and while rockets may have been fired from his rooftop, you have no proof that it was Achmed doing the firing. It might be his neighbor, who dislikes Achmed, and wants to get Achmed in trouble.

[Axis Kast]

I have to speak out, too, against the strange calculus that leads anybody to contend that militaries should always be compelled to take the harder road, when innocent civilians are at stake.

Here in this thread, we have essentially seen repeated demands for the Israeli military to engage in blatantly suicidal operations for the sake of trying (and probably failing) to honor a prohibition which their enemies ignore. Legalism, at any cost -- even common sense.

[Edi]

The demand that the Israeli military go in on foot and subject itself to a full scale urban combat scenario in a densely packed hostile area has no basis whatsoever in reality. The claim that infantry operations would cause lesser casualties is likewise completely divorced from reality.

As has been pointed out, if they went in with infantry, they would come under overwhelming fire and they would retaliate with all firepower at their disposal without even an attempt to distinguish targets. If it moves, it dies, period. The dead can be sorted out afterward and since they are on the enemy side anyway, they can all go fuck themselves anyway. That is the reality of the infantry on the ground, especially when dealing with a people they have been in conflict with for decades. When the entire unit is under fire, there will be no consideration in retaliation. Especially not against an enemy seen as other, as less than human. That is the calculus of hatred, and there is plenty of it to go around there.

The Mogadishu example is a perfect parallel and if the IDF did go in that way, it would result in a massive slaughter when both sides went all out. I'm not saying it's right or the ideal thing, but it is better that the Israelis are dropping one ton bombs on selected apartment houses than if they sent in a couple of divisions of infantry to clean the place house to house. That's the reality and there is no point in ignoring it for principle since principles must be tempered by reality sometimes.

I don't agree with the approach of 100 to 1 ratio of revenge Israel practices, because it doesn't solve anything, especially since Israeli provocations are almost never addressed at all. It's the kind of mess that is not going to get solved anytime soon. In all likelihood, the situation will look very much the same in the next 100 years as long as the society of Israel itself doesn't change certain priorities. However, that is in my opinion fairly unlikely, since the treatment of Palestinians to date has made certain that even if they do, the Palestinians won't after all the oppression, brutality and poverty they have been subjected to. The cycle of hatred born of that and of religious fanaticism is not amenable to negotiated solutions.

[Kanastrous]

*shrug* it's largely a load of self-righteous horseshit from people who understandably and quite properly detest the loss of Palestinian civilian lives, and prefer impractical/impossible fairy tale solutions - sans any kind of practical details, of course; "just send in commandos and make an arrest" actually impresses these types, as a plan - to the efforts presently being made. When it suits these people, the Israelis are Masters of Reality who could of course pull off deep-penetration capture raids with virtually no damage done; alternately, when it's more suitable to portray the Israelis as hamfisted klutzes playing whack-a-mole with high explosives, well, then that's the portrayal of choice, there.

The Israeli side has their share of trouble with self-righteous horseshit, too. Not to be unfair, or anything; it's simply of a different nature.

[CJvR]

Nice strawman, but using the military to pacify the situation is not my problem. The tactic of blowing up buildings where militants are hiding is.

Huh? You don't think the military should attack the enemy when they find him. That is a novel way to wage war!

[eyl]

The Israelis appear to have three objections: (1) elimination of HAMAS leadership; (2) destruction of HAMAS weapons caches; (3) demonstrative retaliation, primarily for the benefit of the Israeli public, but perhaps on the very "off" chance of souring Palestinian civilians against cooperation with HAMAS (a goal they probably recognize as pie-in-the-sky).

Though it hasn't been talked about, there's another variant of (3): convince Hamas' Gaza leadership to break with the leadership abroad.

Hamas' top levels are not in Gaza, but rather in Damascus - and they tend to be considerably more hard-line. If you've been following the news as the cease-fire unravelled (or the prisoner exchange negotiations, for another example), Haled Mashaal was insisting on a considerably more extreme line than the relatively conciliatory positions of Ismaeel Haniyeh (the Hamas PM in Gaza). However, since the Damascus leadership controls the financial flow and has influence in the military wing, they've been able to get their way. It's possible this will induce a split, or at least a greater willingness to ignore those who, ultimately, aren't paying the price for their instransigence.

[[R_H]]

Mashaal: More 'Gilad Shalits' await IDF

Hamas politburo chief warns military that ground incursion will only lead to more kidnapped soldiers

While the IDF prepares for possible ground incursion into Gaza, deemed inevitable by many security officials, Hamas' politburo chief warns the army of a "dark fate" awaiting any troop that enters the Strip.

In a televised interview Friday, Khaled Mashaal threatened Israel and promised that Hamas would win the battle. "The blood of Gaza is the fastest route to your failure," he said. "You will discover that Gaza is the curse of your history, and will drown you in a sea of failure. If you enter Gaza by land a dark fate will await you. If you make a stupid move like this you may have a second, third, and fourth Gilad Shalit on your hands."Mashaal stressed that the organization would not compromise on any of its demands in order to achieve a ceasefire. "Our demand is clear – stop the attacks immediately, lift the siege, and open the crossings," he said.

"We know we have no depth and that our abilities are modest, but our faith is exceptional. This battle has been imposed upon us, but we are ready for the challenge and we will win," the Hamas leader added. "We haven't threatened the enemy with words but with acts. We will protect our land after having prepared for this well ahead of time. We will defeat all of your forces. We are the victim and you are the executioners. We are the righteous and you are the exploiters," he concluded.

[Axis Kast]

Though it hasn't been talked about, there's another variant of (3): convince Hamas' Gaza leadership to break with the leadership abroad.

Hamas' top levels are not in Gaza, but rather in Damascus - and they tend to be considerably more hard-line. If you've been following the news as the cease-fire unravelled (or the prisoner exchange negotiations, for another example), Haled Mashaal was insisting on a considerably more extreme line than the relatively conciliatory positions of Ismaeel Haniyeh (the Hamas PM in Gaza). However, since the Damascus leadership controls the financial flow and has influence in the military wing, they've been able to get their way. It's possible this will induce a split, or at least a greater willingness to ignore those who, ultimately, aren't paying the price for their instransigence.

Thanks kindly for an interesting piece of news and analysis.

[CJvR]

The IDF have started using artillery rockets and at least one major secondary explosion is reported from the impacts.

[Kanastrous]

I wonder if Arab leaders have any inkling of how downright comical their 'you will drown in a sea of blood' and 'curse of your history' and 'children will play with your corpses' rhetoric is, to people outside their own societies. I mean, in the sense of very black comedy; while getting hideously gut-punched they just can't seem to think of anything but flowery ridiculous detached-from-reality trash-talk. Hard to believe that even does anything for their domestic base, who you think would be sick of it, by now.

Not that talk is the worst of anybody's problems, this week.

[CJvR]

IDF troops are crossing the border.

EDIT: False alarm, just artillery -so far...

EDIT EDIT: No, the IDF are on the move!

[The Grim Squeaker]

Update: ISrael's TV news have IDF troops entering Gaza.
Damn....

[[R_H]]

BBC

Israeli troops 'move into Gaza'

Israeli ground troops have begun to enter the Gaza Strip, Israeli military officials have confirmed.

Palestinian witnesses said a small column of vehicles had crossed the border near the town of Beit Lahiya.

Earlier, Israeli artillery and tanks massed near the border bombarded the territory for the first time since the campaign against Hamas began last week.

In one raid, at least 13 people were killed when a missile hit a crowded mosque in Beit Lahiya, medics said.

Why did only a small column go in, and how small is small (any estimates of how many went in)?

Edit: Apparently between 10 and 15 vehicles crossed the northern border

[MKSheppard]

Why did only a small column go in

I think what the IDF is doing is trying to provoke a HAMAS reaction; if they send in a large number of tanks and troops, then HAMAS will just sit tight, and engage the IDF in a stalingradesque battle. However, if the IDF makes limited incursions, the onus is on HAMAS to engage the IDF, and that means leaving the support of their bunkers to engage the IDF....

[Knife]

Why did only a small column go in

I think what the IDF is doing is trying to provoke a HAMAS reaction; if they send in a large number of tanks and troops, then HAMAS will just sit tight, and engage the IDF in a stalingradesque battle. However, if the IDF makes limited incursions, the onus is on HAMAS to engage the IDF, and that means leaving the support of their bunkers to engage the IDF....

Meh, could be anything. Could be bait, could be insertion of small unit teams, could be a point raid, could be an extraction team, who knows.

[[R_H]]

Why did only a small column go in

I think what the IDF is doing is trying to provoke a HAMAS reaction; if they send in a large number of tanks and troops, then HAMAS will just sit tight, and engage the IDF in a stalingradesque battle. However, if the IDF makes limited incursions, the onus is on HAMAS to engage the IDF, and that means leaving the support of their bunkers to engage the IDF....

Hamas' AT capabilities aren't as good as Hizbullah's, right? With the exception of their 'homemade' weapons, have they been acquiring any ATGMs or up-to-date RPGs?

[Knife]

Why did only a small column go in

I think what the IDF is doing is trying to provoke a HAMAS reaction; if they send in a large number of tanks and troops, then HAMAS will just sit tight, and engage the IDF in a stalingradesque battle. However, if the IDF makes limited incursions, the onus is on HAMAS to engage the IDF, and that means leaving the support of their bunkers to engage the IDF....

Hamas' AT capabilities aren't as good as Hizbullah's, right? With the exception of their 'homemade' weapons, have they been acquiring any ATGMs or up-to-date RPGs?

Mobility kills are just as good as an actual kill in an urban environment.

[CJvR]

IDF Para, Armored and engineer troops have engaged Hamas.
Seems as this could be a major operation, the balloon is definetly up.

[Sarevok]

Though it hasn't been talked about, there's another variant of (3): convince Hamas' Gaza leadership to break with the leadership abroad.

Hamas' top levels are not in Gaza, but rather in Damascus - and they tend to be considerably more hard-line. If you've been following the news as the cease-fire unravelled (or the prisoner exchange negotiations, for another example), Haled Mashaal was insisting on a considerably more extreme line than the relatively conciliatory positions of Ismaeel Haniyeh (the Hamas PM in Gaza). However, since the Damascus leadership controls the financial flow and has influence in the military wing, they've been able to get their way. It's possible this will induce a split, or at least a greater willingness to ignore those who, ultimately, aren't paying the price for their instransigence.

Thanks kindly for an interesting piece of news and analysis.

Seems like good thinking. It's easy to be macho when you are in another country manipulating the people who are losing life and limb. Maybe the Gaza based hamas members will realize this and refused to be played like pawns by people living comfortably in Damascus.

[Chris OFarrell]

This could get very bloody, very quickly, far more then the airstrikes have been. From what I've heard, they started using heavy field guns, thats going to far less 'clean' -if you can call it that- then the airstrikes using precision guided weapons. Even if they are hitting civilian areas, at least laser guided bombs generally hit where you aim. Big 155mm shells are going be landing 'approximately' in the area you fire them for the most part.

This is also going to risk having the West Bank start getting uppity now. Though I'm sure Fatah are quietly quite happy seeing Hamas being blasted by the IDF -privately- publicly they HAVE to scream loudly or risk the people in the West bank moving against them.

[Kanastrous]

Big 155mm shells are going be landing 'approximately' in the area you fire them for the most part.

Does the IDF use laser-guided artillery rounds? Or are those at-best 'approximate' when it comes to accuracy, too?

[Knife]

Big 155mm shells are going be landing 'approximately' in the area you fire them for the most part.

Does the IDF use laser-guided artillery rounds? Or are those at-best 'approximate' when it comes to accuracy, too?

Accuracy has more to do with the gunners and firecontrol, in the USMC we had the 200 mil club. That's 200 mils off target and it wasn't an award.

[CJvR]

Modern artillery is very accurate, we are hardly talking Somme and Verdun anymore...

[Knife]

Modern artillery is very accurate, we are hardly talking Somme and Verdun anymore...

Pfft, human error is the same.