Gaza situation discussion

[Atlan]

Modern artillery is very accurate, we are hardly talking Somme and Verdun anymore...

Pfft, human error is the same.

But artillery is nowadays often aimed with computer input. As long as your position and target (GPS!) are well known, the chances of missing horribly are very small. Air pressure, wind direction, difference in altitude between target and cannon, range, it's all just data to modern fire control. As long as you don't put garbage in, you won't get garbage out.

[Chris OFarrell]

I was under the impression that CEP for non GPS/Laser guided rounds was in the range of 10+ meters 'on average', surely not in the range of a few CM. In fact I thought you only got single digit meter CEP when you used laser guided rounds.

I recall there was an aerial picture posted on this forum at some point, perhaps in HAB, perhaps by Sheppard, which showed a comparison picture of gunners in Iraq firing conventional shells and excalibur rounds. The craters for the former were clustered in a 50 or so meter CEP, the later within 3 meters.

And with modern fire control while you might be able to zero in your fire after a few salvos to hit the same place again and again, its not a good thing in a highly urban environment like Gaza to play around with 'ranging shots' if you want to avoid massive civilian casualties. Because while you might have a lot of data to work with, you'll only know about air currents and so on for sure once you track that first shell in and compensate.

[Broomstick]

OK, this may be somewhat petty, but can we update the thread title? We are past the "third day" by many days. How about just "Gaza situation continues..."?

I can't help but think that in a similar situation a thousand years ago it would have already progressed to war, or even one side steam-rolling the other. Not that that would necessarily be better, but this current strategy of trying to avoid the above, it does not seem satisfactory, either.

[Knife]

Modern artillery is very accurate, we are hardly talking Somme and Verdun anymore...

Pfft, human error is the same.

But artillery is nowadays often aimed with computer input. As long as your position and target (GPS!) are well known, the chances of missing horribly are very small. Air pressure, wind direction, difference in altitude between target and cannon, range, it's all just data to modern fire control. As long as you don't put garbage in, you won't get garbage out.

Lolz, you watch too much discovery channel.

[Atlan]

Pfft, human error is the same.

But artillery is nowadays often aimed with computer input. As long as your position and target (GPS!) are well known, the chances of missing horribly are very small. Air pressure, wind direction, difference in altitude between target and cannon, range, it's all just data to modern fire control. As long as you don't put garbage in, you won't get garbage out.

Lolz, you watch too much discovery channel.

Yeah, maybe. Then again, if the Israelis are going to do a bout of city fighting, then they're hardly going to call down fire which would stand a good chance of landing right on top of their own head, now would they? I mean, we're not talking "middle of the desert, flatten that thar village over there" fire.

[Knife]

Yeah, maybe. Then again, if the Israelis are going to do a bout of city fighting, then they're hardly going to call down fire which would stand a good chance of landing right on top of their own head, now would they? I mean, we're not talking "middle of the desert, flatten that thar village over there" fire.

Again, you watch too much discovery channel.

You, you, this is me. Immediate suppression over.

In military speak, this is the top dog of fire orders. This is a primary fire order if you are a motarman or artilleryman. All guns are directed to this fire order; and all fire orders are secondary to this order. All infantry are trained to call for fire in situations that obstruct their advancement. It is common doctrine in western infantry. It is so common that physical obstructions are arbitrary along with what kind of enemy formation is.

As far as infantry formations go, if you can't fire and manuver around it; call for fire or CIF or CAS around it. All of which are in well regards of IDF doctrine.

Besides which the doctrine and supported training of *danger close* all infantry squads are trained in.

[Edi]

OK, this may be somewhat petty, but can we update the thread title? We are past the "third day" by many days. How about just "Gaza situation continues..."?

Done

[The Grim Squeaker]

Articles:
First: updates:
http://www.haaretz.com

30 soldiers hurt in op, 2 seriously; report: army bisects Gaza
By Amos Harel, Yoav Stern and Yanir Yagana, Haaretz Correspondents, and News Agencies
Tags: Hamas, Gaza, Israel news

Israeli ground troops clashed Sunday morning with Palestinian gunmen in the Gaza Strip, and reportedly bisected the coastal area. Early Sunday, thirty Israel Defense Forces soldiers were wounded, two of them seriously, in clashes with militants.

Palestinian medics reported that shells fired by IDF troops exploded in the center of Gaza City's main shopping area, leaving five dead and dozens wounded. Doctors and hospital officials also said that 23 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's ground offensive since midnight, with 3 of those killed Hamas gunmen and the rest civilians.

Israel began its ground operation in the Gaza Strip on Saturday night following a week of aerial attacks aimed at halting rocket fire on its southern communities. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Sunday that Israel could not allow residents of southern Israel to be continuously targeted and was left with no choice but to act.

Palestinian sources said that Israeli troops had clashed with Gaza gunmen on the outskirts of Gaza City.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1052336.html

ANALYSIS / Israel's aim in Gaza is to break Hamas resistance
By Amos Harel & Avi Issacharoff
Tags: Israel, Hamas, Israel News

On Saturday night, one week after the start of Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip, the ground operation began. The Israel Defense Forces started deploying combat units to surround Hamas' main power base. The goal is not to chase after and destroy every last rocket launcher, but rather to break the Hamas' resistance and force it to agree to a long-term cease-fire whose terms are more reasonable from Israel's perspective.

Rocket fire into Israel continued apace with the Gaza offensive, but IDF officials believe this time progress can be made at the front before the extent of the casualties in the south begins to resemble that of the Second Lebanon War. At the same time, there is a growing risk that Hezbollah or its satellites will try to open a second front along the Lebanese border.

The final decision on the ground operation came Friday afternoon in a meeting of the security cabinet with military leaders, in the IDF's underground situation room in Tel Aviv. Senior IDF officials reported that the Air Force was nearing the end of its "target bank" and that a ground operation must be launched immediately if the overall operational goals were to be met.

The army believes the incursion into Gaza will do significant damage to Hamas' standing army and at the same time give Hamas leaders a palpable sense that their rule is in danger. The ground invasion will also accelerate the diplomatic stopwatch. A delegation from the European Union "troika" (Germany, France, Great Britain) will reach Gaza on Sunday, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy is expected on Monday. Translated into military terminology that means the IDF has less than a week to make genuine progress in Gaza.

In the past two days the army chief of staff and the head of Southern Command visited troops massing along the Gaza border and approved the final plans. The message from the IDF commanders is: "We will meet our goals. There will be casualties as a result of the thrust into Gaza but they will not stop any part of the operation." This attitude is different from that evinced during the Second Lebanon War, when the army withdrew on more than one occasion in response to casualties. One battalion commander told his company commander on Saturday that it's possible that not everyone will return to meet again in a few days' time.

This knowledge has not affected the army's motivation and readiness, however. Hamas is not Hezbollah and the IDF circa January 2009 is not the IDF of 2006. It is sharper, more determined and better trained. The intelligence is infinitely better this time. The offensive was prepared over a long period of time. It is very aggressive, with massive air and artillery fire preceding the ground and artillery forces.

The army is worried mainly about the explosive charges buried by Hamas underneath roads, about attempts to boobytrap homes and to abduct soldiers. In comparison to Lebanon, the threat of antitank fire is less troubling. IDF headquarters believes the diplomatic developments will bring a rapid end to the military operation, but field commanders are also prepared for a stay of several weeks, including methodical arrest campaigns and searches for weapons caches.

On Saturday night a large number of reserve units were called up, using emergency orders. Starting Sunday they will undergo training to prepare for possible mobilization, in keeping with the security cabinet's directives to the IDF to prepare for the next stages of the conflict. Senior officers hope these preparations will prove to be unnecessary.

How will Hamas respond? It has built a band of fortifications about three kilometers from the border, but later on it will probably want to put its people into populated areas on the assumption that the IDF will seek to avoid warfare in built-up areas. Hamas is likely to use suicide attackers, booby-trapped tunnels and sniper fire against IDF troops. More than 100 militants who trained in camps in Iran for 45 days will lead the fighting against the IDF. Hamas may also use children as "human shields" for weapons caches inside mosques.

The recent drop in the number of rockets being fired at Israel points to a decline in the number of rocket launchers, possible due to IAF strikes on the smuggling tunnels in Rafah. It is also possible that Hamas is focusing more on defensive actions than offensive ones.

Hamas' biggest problem now is that for it the ground operation is a battle for the survival of its governmental control in the Strip. The organization's leaders have raised Gazans' expectations regarding the IDF invasion. In the past several days they have promised that "Gaza's children will collect body parts of the Zionist soldiers." Khaled Meshal spoke of "a few more Gilad Shalits," if the IDF dares to launch a ground operation. It can be assumed that the fighting spirit of the Hamas militants will be greater than the zero motivation displayed by their counterparts from Fatah and the Palestinian Authority security forces during Operation Defensive Shield in the West Bank in 2002. Still, the balance of forces is clear. If Hamas does not cause serious casualties among the Israeli forces, the operation will be considered a failure for the organization in the Arab world.

The true picture in Gaza should become clearer Sunday, once some of the fog imposed by the IDF censor clears.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1052360.html

IDF bombs mosque during Gaza operation, killing 13 worshippers
By News Agencies
Tags: Israel, Hamas, Israel News

As Israel's military operation against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip entered its ninth day, Palestinians were reeling from an attack on what the Israel Defense Forces claims was a mosque which was being used as a weapons cache.

The IDF raided the mosque in the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya, killing 13 people and wounding 33, according to a Palestinian health official.

One of the wounded worshippers, Salah Mustafa, told Al-Jazeera TV from a hospital that the mosque was packed.

"It was unbelievably awful," he said, struggling to catch his breath.

It was not immediately clear why the mosque was hit, but Israel has hit other mosques in its air campaign and said they were used for storing weapons.

On the third day of the operation early Monday morning, the IAF obliterated symbols of Hamas power, bombing the Islamic University.

Thousands protested Friday against Israel's air offensive targeting Hamas at demonstrations in the Middle East and several continents.

Similar protests have been held daily across the Middle East since Israel launched the bombing campaign last Saturday. But these gatherings held mostly after Friday prayers were larger - mainly because Friday prayers are a traditional gathering opportunity for Muslims - and seemed to be more far-reaching in the number of countries where protests occurred.

The Israeli offensive has killed more than 400 Palestinians and sparked outrage among the Arab public. Israel says its offensive is aimed at silencing Hamas rockets.

In Tehran, a crowd of about 6,000 stretching for a half-mile (kilometer) marched from prayers at Tehran University to Palestine Square, chanting "Death to Israel" and "Death to America" and burning Israeli flags.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki warned Israel that entering Gaza "by land will be the biggest mistake of the Zionist regime."

Iran is a major backer of Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, giving it millions of dollars. The U.S. and Israel accuse Iran of giving weapons and rockets to Hamas, though Tehran denies arming Hamas.

In Egypt, authorities clamped down hard to prevent protests Friday. Hundreds of riot police surrounded Cairo's main Al-Azhar Mosque, where a rally had been called, and scuffled with would-be protesters, keeping most from approaching.

Police also arrested 40 members of the opposition Muslim Brotherhood that called for protests.

More than 3,000 people marched in the northern Sinai city of el-Arish.

Many governments in the Arab world such as Egypt have been wary about protests at home over Israel's Gaza assault lest the protests spiral out of control.

In Jordan, police fired volleys of tear gas and scuffled with protesters who tried to reach the Israeli Embassy in Amman. A few of the protesters threw stones at police, but the security forces dispersed the group, arresting several.

About 30,000 Jordanians gathered at a stadium in Amman shouting their support for Gaza and calling for the abolition of the Jordanian-Israeli peace treaty signed in 1994.

More than 10,000 Muslims marched through Indonesia's capital Jakarta to protest the ongoing bombing raids in Gaza, aiming fake missiles labeled "Target: Tel Aviv, Israel" at the U.S. Embassy.

Protests were also held after Friday prayers in other cities in the world's most populous Muslim country, in what was the largest turnout since Israel began the operation.

In the Afghan capital of Kabul, about 3,000 people gathered outside a prominent mosque, according to police estimates. Men in the crowd threw stones and shoes at an effigy of President George W. Bush.

Dozens of demonstrators gathered in the Philippines capital Manila, carrying placards saying Israel is a "butcher of children."

In Turkey, Israel's closest ally in the region, some 5,000 people denounced the Israeli raids outside a mosque in Istanbul, burning Israeli and U.S. flags and reciting funeral prayers for the victims.

In Syria, some 2,000 marched in a Palestinian refugee camp in Damascus, carrying Palestinian flags and chanting "jihad will unite us."

Syrian President Bashar Assad talked with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon Friday and called on the U.N. Security Council to adopt a resolution forcing Israel to immediately halt its Gaza offensive, Syria's official news agency SANA reported.

In Sudan, thousands marched in downtown Khartoum, urging Muslims to jihad and denouncing Israel and America.

Protests erupted as well in the Palestinian territories.

In the West Bank city of Ramallah, thousands demonstrated in solidarity with Gazans, calling for Palestinian unity and accusing Arab leaders of silence over Israel's bombardment.

There were also protests in the United States. Thousands gathered in Washington to express outrage over Israel's attacks, marching from the Israeli embassy Friday to the Egyptian embassy to criticize Egypt's handling of the attacks.

In Los Angeles, about 350 protesters and counterprotesters demonstrated. The pro-Palestinian demonstrators gathered outside the Israeli Consulate, while supporters of Israel lined the opposite side of the street. No incidents were immediately reported.

Ex-Eurythmics singer Annie Lennox and other celebrities, including activist Bianca Jagger, comedian Alexei Sayle and former London mayor Ken Livingstone, held a news conference in London demanding Israel halt the onslaught.

In Sao Paulo, Brazil almost 200 people led by local Muslim leaders gathered outside the Sao Paulo Art Museum to protest the Israeli offensive in Gaza. Several demonstrators carried Palestinian flags, and banners reading "End the Genocide in Gaza."

In Bern, Switzerland, hundreds of people marched, calling for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza and demanding the international community impose sanctions against Israel.

Russian authorities detained about 37 people after a small protest outside the Israeli Embassy in Moscow demanding an end to attacks on the Gaza Strip.

Hundreds of Muslims held a rally at the main mosque in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi, hoisting banners that said "Palestinian Blood Is Human Blood" and shouting for Kenya to sever ties with Israel.

Meanwhile, Abu Musab Abdul Wadud, the leader of al-Qaida in Islamic North Africa, an offshoot of Osama bin Laden's terrorist network, has issued a message urging Muslims to attack Jews everywhere, according to the SITE Intelligence, a group which monitors extremist Web sites.

The message was issued on jihadist forums on Thursday, SITE said.

Israel okays call-up of tens of thousands of IDF reservists
By Barak Ravid, Haaretz Correspondent, and Reuters

Israel's government has approved the call-up of tens of thousands of reservist soldiers, it was annnounced Saturday, almost simultaneously with the launch of a Gaza ground incursion aimed at halting rocket fire on Israel's southern communities.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office said in a statement that, in accordance with a secret cabinet discussion Friday, the government ordered the armed forces "to draft the necessary reservists, on a scale of tens of thousands of troops."

The Gaza ground operation launched Saturday had actually been approved last week, but Olmert promised his ministers that when the time came to begin the offensive, it would first be brought for fresh approval by the security cabinet. On Thursday night, Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak held a meeting that lasted until 4 A.M., during which it was decided that that time had come.

On Friday afternoon, at around 2 P.M., the security cabinet convened at Olmert's office at the Defense Ministry building in Tel Aviv. The meeting was held in utmost secrecy, and the military censor even banned reports that the discussion had taken place.

As the cabinet debate dragged on, the two ministers from the ultra-Orthodox Shas party said that they would stay at the meeting despite the imminent onset of the Sabbath, as the discussion constituted "pikuah nefesh" (the saving of human life which allows Jews to break religious laws). Olmert told the two to go home, but to each leave a note with their votes on the issue of a ground operation.

In the voting, 10 ministers were in favor of the operation, while two - Haim Ramon of Kadima and Eli Yishai of Shas - abstained.

[[R_H]]

The army is worried mainly about the explosive charges buried by Hamas underneath roads, about attempts to boobytrap homes and to abduct soldiers.

Some info about Hamas' IEDs

Shaped charge IEDs are not new in the Middle East insurgency wars. The IDF Bomb Disposal crews have uncovered, what they designate as Kela type IEDs, in Lebanon and in Gaza. Activated through catapulted triggering devices, the weapon uses an improvised chemical shaped charge type, between 10-50kg and can be launched from stand-off or electrical fuze from several meters distance. The initial types have been relatively ineffective against armored vehicles, but the heavier versions have caused catastrophic results in softer or lightly armored vehicles.

Other types of IED used by Hamas and Hezbollah are super-heavy "belly" explosive devices, also frequently packing some special types of shaped charge explosives to penetrate AFV hulls from the vulnerable bottom. Penetration by chemical jet stream into the fighting compartment activated catastrophic secondary explosions in unprotected internal tank ammunition stores. Israeli experts assumed that the know-how about the preparation and use of such devices was imported from Iranian demolition experts.

Accordingly, latest IDF versions of (Low Intensive Combat) LIC Merkava tanks have been fitted with armored steel base-plates, which can absorb the blast. US experts consider a similar trend to take place in Iraq, as know-how is transferred to Iraqi insurgents by Hezbollah and their Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps sabotage instructors. Iraqi insurgents have already adopted such tactics utilizing a variety of shaped charges. Some have been hung from overpasses others planted on roadsides, One of the heaviest IEDs used so far contained 600 pounds of explosives placed in an under devastated an Amphibious armored vehicle killing four marines. Another ambush which used four stacked mines buried in a road, destroyed another amphibious carrier and killed 14 marines. Other methods of operations call for placement of heavy IEDs in road underpasses, and most lately - mounted in suicide vehicles.

[MKSheppard]

Lolz, you watch too much discovery channel.

Oooh Oooh, Mr. Knife, can I answer? Can I Can I?

*Holds up hand excitedly*

*Knife sighs and points at Shep*

"While modern artillery is very accurate; due to the results of about 75 years of increasingly advanced computational methods being applied to all phases of shell flight, we're a long ways from where we were in 1914, where it was "uh, don't shoot beyond visual range, you can't hit the target", there's still a lot of ways to mess up."

1.) Atmospheric conditions may change unexpectedly, due to sudden wind changes, driving shell off course

but mostly....

2.) Human Error.

---The guy misreads the GPS coordinates and/or does a typo when entering in the coordinates for the fire mission in the gun computer.

---The guy misreads the charge table, loads 4 bags instead of the 3 called for by the shoot.

---Someone's given you the wrong coordinates -- I believe one of the incidents where the USAF bombed a Canadian or was it British platoon was because the guy in the platoon had changed the batteries on his GPS target marker, and instead of showing the coordinates for the target he was designating, it was showing that GPS unit's present position. Oops.

I'm sure there's others that I've forgotten; but one of the primary contributing factors is fatigue. Remember in the military, you might be calling in a fire mission on just 40 minutes of sleep in a 48 hour period, or on the artillery side, you've been firing shells for several hours straight without a rest."

Deeed I get it right mr knife? do i get a gold star?

[[R_H]]

Updates: BBC reported that Hamas radio and TV (didn't they get bombed?) is reporting the capture of two Israeli soldiers during the fighting, but the Israeli army says it has no knowledge of the claim

NTV (German news channel similar to CNN) is reporting that one Israeli soldier is dead, and 31 are injured.

[CJvR]

That came from Damascus IIRC so it is hopefully only wishful thinking from Hamas rear echelon.

[Beowulf]

With regard to the mosques getting hit: the use of any protected structure (hospital, church, etc) for storage of munitions strips the protection from that structures. Mosque is used to store munitions? It's quite legitimate to hit it. Of course once it's known that some mosques are used to store munitions, it becomes much harder to sort out which do, and which don't. Palestinian violations of the laws of armed conflict can result in mistakes being made. It doesn't mean that it's entirely, or even mostly the Israeli's fault.

[CJvR]

With regard to the mosques getting hit: the use of any protected structure (hospital, church, etc) for storage of munitions strips the protection from that structures. Mosque is used to store munitions? It's quite legitimate to hit it. Of course once it's known that some mosques are used to store munitions, it becomes much harder to sort out which do, and which don't. Palestinian violations of the laws of armed conflict can result in mistakes being made. It doesn't mean that it's entirely, or even mostly the Israeli's fault.

Absolutely true. Now try selling that to the media. Dry legal paragraph explaining why a strike was perfectly legit vs. blood and splatter of "civilian" victims of this latest "atrocity".

Heard a rather alarming rumor that Hamas is storing some of it's best rockets in the Gaza hospital basement... That's a disaster waiting to happen.

EDIT:
Actually you can get som intresting nuggets of information from the reporting. A doctor, IIRC a Norwegian, said that 45% of the injured arriving at Gaza hospital were women and children as well as 25% of the dead so it seems the IDF is still reasonably on target despite having chased Hamas into civilian population.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The media works on emotions like most things. It is not about what is rational, it is about injustice on a personal level. Imagine this dying child was your child. Therefore, Israel is wrong. It's no different to criminal justice where you try and win a conviction and sentence based on appealing to the jury's own emotional state, which is a fallacy there, just as it is here.

If tugging at the heartstrings is a valid form of debate, then I could legitimately win anything with the careful application of a sob story and pathetic imagery. Sadness and rage are NOT the tools of justice or the military-industrial complex, no matter how outraged you may be.

[Coyote]

Always remember, and keep in th eback of your minds, this truism:

The Media is a Business. It's Purpose is not to give Information; it's purpose is to Make Money.

[Kanastrous]

What kind of weapon, is that? ^

[Admiral Valdemar]

Isn't the Jericho a little heavy handed for that?

Okay, it's not a Stark Industries weapon, but that effect looks like a cluster munition, though from the videos I've seen it struck me as being illumination flares. There are other images of airbursts with smoky debris falling in tentacle like patterns.

[The Spartan]

but that effect looks like a cluster munition,

Don't those usually explode after they hit the ground, not before?

[CJvR]

Not sure what that is.

Doesn't look like any cluster weapons I have seen, more like flares but that hardly makes sense...?

[Ender]

It looks like tracers and explosions from AAA battery fire, but that can't be it.

[Master of Ossus]

It looks like the air-burst shells to disperse leaflets, to me, but I've only seen those during daylight and those... things... seem to be glowing instead of just refracting visible light, and they also seem to be giving off smoke and moving in a hurry.

[Knife]

Doesn't look like anything I know of either. Perhaps some sort of flare package.

[Chris OFarrell]

I've seen videos of these bursts on the news, they are pretty clearly flares, but not on 'chutes as they fall quite quickly.

They are airbusrting quite low and spreading out quickly, I don't think they are for illumination. I was half thinking they might be fired and airbusted as the IDF sends attack helicopters or jets in, to try and counter any MANPADS Hamas might have smuggled in or something, otherwise I have no idea what the deal is with this...

[Admiral Valdemar]

I agree with Chris. Catching the video again, they are low and fast, but definitely flares as no secondary explosions occur and leaflets now would be a bit late. They must be clearing streets using these and airburst concussion shells.

Also, I hear reports of DU shells and the usual screams of dirty nuclear warfare. Typical, though it's not like Hamas have anything warranting such ordnance.