Political Stability of the 1984verse

[Darth Smiley]

sooner or later someone is going to push the "Fuck, nuke'em all button" out of believing their own bullshit or some other reason

One of the book's key points is that everybody already believes their own bullshit. The key to Ingsoc is not that people don't know the truth, it's that their concept of truth has been rebuilt from the ground up. Inner Party members realise the charade behind the "war" but they have been conditioned to entertain that notion, and make decisions based upon it, while at the same time believing utterly that the war is completely real.

Well, yes, but the point is that if you give the three factions long enough, eventually someone is going to push the "make everything go boom" button. The question is whether or not the technology advances to the point where said button actually exterminates humanity, or defensive technology outpaces the strategic weapons and no such liberating cataclysm becomes possible.

[Gandalf]

If everyone believes their own lies, why would they even keep building and maintaining nuclear weapons?

They're materially expensive, needs lots of skilled people, and also represent a threat to the stability of the war and Party.

[Junghalli]

The question is whether or not the technology advances to the point where said button actually exterminates humanity, or defensive technology outpaces the strategic weapons and no such liberating cataclysm becomes possible.

1984-verse is heavily implied to be basically technologically static. I doubt they'd advance far enough to build true doomsday weapons or impenetrable missile defense networks.

If everyone believes their own lies, why would they even keep building and maintaining nuclear weapons?

They're materially expensive, needs lots of skilled people, and also represent a threat to the stability of the war and Party.

The materially expensive part, at least, would be a good thing from the Party's perspective. Remember the war doesn't actually serve any purpose except for wasting resources and creating an environment where people will rally around the heads of state.

Maybe they're stockpiling them just in case they face a real rebellion or one of the superstates goes rogue and actually tries to destroy its enemies?

[Thirdfain]

I'm a little surprised no one has noticed the glaring flaw in Orwell's eternal despotism.

The Inner Party is treated as a monolith. They all work together to maintain their control of the whole rest of society. But real oligarchies don't work like that. We see the control mechanisms in place to keep the Outer (lower?) party in check, as well as the proles- but what keeps the Inner Party in check? In even the most repressive police states, you have multiple centers of power- the military, government agencies, and so on. What guarantees are there in place to keep the Ministry of Peace from mounting a coup? Or to keep the thought police from supporting their favored candidates for high office? Orwell's world completely ignores human greed. In a scenario where people wield absolute power, wouldn't they suffer from absolute corruption?

[Gandalf]

The materially expensive part, at least, would be a good thing from the Party's perspective. Remember the war doesn't actually serve any purpose except for wasting resources and creating an environment where people will rally around the heads of state.

Yes, I get that.

But the materials and effort that could be used in nukes could just as easily be thrown in to a floating fortress, tanks, or other pieces of the conventional warfare material dump.

Why bother with nukes if they require a greater knowledge base and serve no real purpose?

[Samuel]

The materially expensive part, at least, would be a good thing from the Party's perspective. Remember the war doesn't actually serve any purpose except for wasting resources and creating an environment where people will rally around the heads of state.

Yes, I get that.

But the materials and effort that could be used in nukes could just as easily be thrown in to a floating fortress, tanks, or other pieces of the conventional warfare material dump.

Why bother with nukes if they require a greater knowledge base and serve no real purpose?

Because they require a greater knowledge base and serve no real purpose. Besides, do you expect them to make nukes that work?

[Setzer]

I'm a little surprised no one has noticed the glaring flaw in Orwell's eternal despotism.

The Inner Party is treated as a monolith. They all work together to maintain their control of the whole rest of society. But real oligarchies don't work like that. We see the control mechanisms in place to keep the Outer (lower?) party in check, as well as the proles- but what keeps the Inner Party in check? In even the most repressive police states, you have multiple centers of power- the military, government agencies, and so on. What guarantees are there in place to keep the Ministry of Peace from mounting a coup? Or to keep the thought police from supporting their favored candidates for high office? Orwell's world completely ignores human greed. In a scenario where people wield absolute power, wouldn't they suffer from absolute corruption?

That might lead to the eventual collapse of the system, but even Inner Party members can be imprisoned for thought crimes. I'm sure paranoia about being informed on will keep internal strife down for a while.

[Patrick Degan]

It's really hard to visualize the notion of doublethink on that scale, but we can actually see it in action in modern day global politics.

No, Goldstein's book is a trap —the only persons ever likely to get a copy are potential thought-criminals (by definition).

But it would be appropriate if the trap was also the truth, that they would show the truth to potential thought-criminals and then break them down in Room 101 and reduce them to doublethinking drones to show the true success of their methods.

I mean, it's the best way of making sure your techniques in brainwashing people are working in perfect order. You get some suspicious shmuck like Winston, put him in an elaborate charade where he thinks he's raging against the machine and you introduce him to The Truth in the form of Goldstein's book, which shows reality for what it is. And then you ruin Winston's shit, subject him to the horrors of Room 101 and have O'Brian give him a personal heart-to-heart talk. In the end, despite reading and learning the truth from Goldstein's book, Winston still ends up being a doublethinking drone.

It's the ultimate victory of IngSoc and it's, like, the best way of proving that doublethink works. Confronting the person with the truth and then breaking him down to the point where, despite knowing the truth, he still ultimately ends up accepting the Party's reality wholeheartedly and... loving Big Brother.

The Inner Party members probably know what's in Goldstein's book, the Inner Party members know that they're an oligarchic manipulative bunch of totalitarian bastards, but the doublethink allows them to buy into their own crap as well.

It is entirely possible that reality, as seen in the 1984-verse, can be taken at face value and that Goldstein's book is a true report of the state of affairs in that world. It is also equally possible that Goldstein's book is a fiction designed, even as an entrapment, to maintain an illusion of a world divided into three superpowers in a perpetual state of war with one another. It is not necessary that the book actually be true and accurate about the state of the world for it to function as an entrapment device for thought-criminals. The only thing that is required is that the subject is inexorably led into a situation where he cannot avoid guilt for not only plotting against the Party, but embracing a non-conformity. From that point, mindbending can proceed along it's expected course until the victim is completely broken down and reshaped into a Goodthinkful devotee of Big Brother. Since a key component of this process is to warp the victim's sense of reality, and the Party already practises this on a grand scale to control the population, why not reinforce the Party's construction of reality while also using it to snare thought-criminals by presenting the Big Lie as the Big Truth? You have to admit the implications of Orwell's book point equally well in both directions.

[Samuel]

I'm a little surprised no one has noticed the glaring flaw in Orwell's eternal despotism.

The Inner Party is treated as a monolith. They all work together to maintain their control of the whole rest of society. But real oligarchies don't work like that. We see the control mechanisms in place to keep the Outer (lower?) party in check, as well as the proles- but what keeps the Inner Party in check? In even the most repressive police states, you have multiple centers of power- the military, government agencies, and so on. What guarantees are there in place to keep the Ministry of Peace from mounting a coup? Or to keep the thought police from supporting their favored candidates for high office? Orwell's world completely ignores human greed. In a scenario where people wield absolute power, wouldn't they suffer from absolute corruption?

That might lead to the eventual collapse of the system, but even Inner Party members can be imprisoned for thought crimes. I'm sure paranoia about being informed on will keep internal strife down for a while.

Until someone gets the bright idea to use the military to crush their rivals as the thought police has been infiltrated by traitors and needs to be taken down. Or the head of the thought police gets delusions of grandeur. Or agents start going native and harrass the proles less in return for favors.

[Shroom Man 777]

You have to admit the implications of Orwell's book point equally well in both directions.

Of course, the goddamn brilliance of it is that you can almost NOT tell what's up and what's down and what the color of the sky is, but the book still ends up making you feel disturbed, saddened and horrified.

I prefer to think that Goldstein's book was the Big Truth, just for the sake of dramatic irony (dramirony), like the ultimate symbolic victory of doublethink over truth and stuff. And, well, there has to be SOME exposition of the setting. But then the exposition of the setting could be a complete fabrication because everything could be a lie! Who am I?! I don't know!

It's totally awesome, like an artsy fartsy mindfuck that those fancy snobby film festival types totally dig. Except it's done in a subtle and sublime kind of way that's not overblown (without anime-style trippy nonsensical scenes, or European arthouse type symbolic imagery or something) but still nonetheless 100% effective.

[Bounty]

1984-verse is heavily implied to be basically technologically static. I doubt they'd advance far enough to build true doomsday weapons or impenetrable missile defense networks.

Not just implied, outright stated. All factions are working on crackpot superweapon projects, but they're set up in a way so that they'll never get results. An effort to make weaponized earthquakes drains resources and looks good on the news, but it can never be allowed to actually work lest the balance of power tips to one side.

Until someone gets the bright idea to use the military to crush their rivals as the thought police has been infiltrated by traitors and needs to be taken down. Or the head of the thought police gets delusions of grandeur. Or agents start going native and harrass the proles less in return for favors.

This assumes that the very concept of "delusions of grandeur" even still occurs to Inner Party members.

[Samuel]

This assumes that the very concept of "delusions of grandeur" even still occurs to Inner Party members.

It does. It is the basis for their system- the lust for absolute power. It is a short move from that to the idea that yu should have power over the party as well. After all, it really isn't true power if you can be replaced so easily. Why not be Big Brother?

[Thirdfain]

It does. It is the basis for their system- the lust for absolute power. It is a short move from that to the idea that yu should have power over the party as well. After all, it really isn't true power if you can be replaced so easily. Why not be Big Brother?

Precisely! The Orwellian society is fundamentally unstable- it relies on an upper class which exists SPECIFICALLY to exercise absolute power to act in a selfless manner.

I remember reading 1984 for the first time. By the time I was done with the book I was in a great mood. Why? Because the flaws in the system were so obvious. A boot stomping on a human face, forever? Not likely.

[Junghalli]

Of course, there's no guarentee that whatever replaces it will be all that much better.

[Thirdfain]

Sure, but the central point stands- Ingsoc is a doomed political system. So long as there is instability, there's the hope that something better will develop eventually. The Party relies on it's aura of invincibility to shape it's subjects- how long can that aura persist in the face of political upheaval of any sort?

[Junghalli]

Yeah, that is why I found the society depicted in Brave New World scarier, because it's something that actually very well could last forever. You can't get a slavocratic society more stable than one in which the masters actually are mentally superior to the slaves.

[Samuel]

Of course, there's no guarentee that whatever replaces it will be all that much better.

Why not? 1984 is about the worst you can possibly imagine. It is hard to get much worse without falling apart.

Sure, but the central point stands- Ingsoc is a doomed political system. So long as there is instability, there's the hope that something better will develop eventually. The Party relies on it's aura of invincibility to shape it's subjects- how long can that aura persist in the face of political upheaval of any sort?

More to the point, how do they deal with the military? Is it composed of only party members? What happens if a general decides to carve out some territory as his own private fiefdom- and trys to bloster his populatity with the natives to back him? Even better, what happens if he makes a deal with his opposing counterpart in order to do so- they both send back reports and pretend to fight while making themselves kings.

Yeah, that is why I found the society depicted in Brave New World scarier, because it's something that actually very well could last forever. You can't get a slavocratic society more stable than one in which the masters actually are mentally superior to the slaves.

You know, some people find BNW to be pretty close to a utopia.

[Mayabird]

Thing is, we never did see the inner workings of the Inner Party or the military, assuming they even exist as supposedly they do. The Inner Party could be drugged up to their eyeballs or the whole deal might be some giant cruel psychological experiment for all we know. We have no idea how stuff works or if it works.

[Pelranius]

They could have performed brain surgery of sorts on the Inner Party folks to keep them in line by inhibiting their ambition (sort of a variation on the lobotomy that MAY have been done to Julia). Or they're just really well conditioned fanatics who believe religiously in the Inner Party's mission (though in that case, the Party will probably go the way of the early Catholic Church after Constatine).

[Thirdfain]

They could have performed brain surgery of sorts on the Inner Party folks to keep them in line by inhibiting their ambition (sort of a variation on the lobotomy that MAY have been done to Julia).

There's really no evidence whatsoever in the book to suggest that this happens. It's been a while, but doesn't the party official who "converts" our hero in the end explicitely say that the Inner Party is in it for power? This would make it unlikely that they have inhibited ambitions...

Or they're just really well conditioned fanatics who believe religiously in the Inner Party's mission (though in that case, the Party will probably go the way of the early Catholic Church after Constatine).

Even well-conditioned fanatics have power struggles. "MY leadership would be better than yours, so I'm going to take steps to seize power... All for the good of the Mission, of course!"

[Patrick Degan]

Thing is, we never did see the inner workings of the Inner Party or the military, assuming they even exist as supposedly they do. The Inner Party could be drugged up to their eyeballs or the whole deal might be some giant cruel psychological experiment for all we know. We have no idea how stuff works or if it works.

We can, at the very least, assume that Oceania and the Party are real, that Oceanian society is as depicted, and that the Party has an ironclad grasp on power. I would doubt that the Inner Party members are drugged up to their eyeballs, since an entire state apparatus of nonfunctional persons could never maintain the Party's control and somebody has to be directing the activities of the Thought Police. It is violating Occam's Razor to assume another unseen mechanism at work here when the theory that the Inner Party holds power and directs the Thought Police, as depicted in the book, are indeed the facts of the matter. We can question the reality of the war since the book itself opens the door to multiple interpretations of what may or may not really be going on beyond the confines of Airstrip One.

[Junghalli]

Why not? 1984 is about the worst you can possibly imagine. It is hard to get much worse without falling apart.

An ordinary tinpot dictator would probably be doing a lot of the same stuff as the Party (repressing dissidents, spying on the populace, fighting bloody wars for his own self-aggrandisement). Would the difference really be all that great?

You know, some people find BNW to be pretty close to a utopia.

Some people might, but I'd hardly consider a society built on slave labor to be a utopia. The fact that the slaves are too stupid to understand how they're being shafted doesn't really make it any more attractive to me.

[Samuel]

An ordinary tinpot dictator would probably be doing a lot of the same stuff as the Party (repressing dissidents, spying on the populace, fighting bloody wars for his own self-aggrandisement). Would the difference really be all that great?

Yes. If he didn't use all the resources for self glorification, he would devote some to inproving the country, insuring the future would be better than the present.

Some people might, but I'd hardly consider a society built on slave labor to be a utopia. The fact that the slaves are too stupid to understand how they're being shafted doesn't really make it any more attractive to me.

They are organic robots. Someonw has to do the dirty work- why not get people who enjoy it?

[NoXion]

You know, some people find BNW to be pretty close to a utopia.

Some people might, but I'd hardly consider a society built on slave labor to be a utopia. The fact that the slaves are too stupid to understand how they're being shafted doesn't really make it any more attractive to me.

How is that any different from using animal labour?

[Big Orange]

The over elaborate form of surveillance with the telescreens would inevitably fall apart after a couple of decades, since who watches the watchers? It would be a very, very mindnumbing experience to watch the same apartments 24/7 so there would be huge hours long gaps where the assigned Thought Police officers would be playing chess or something instead.

While there is no proof that the Oceania has a presence in North America, even the British Isle would be hard to have 100% security and surveillance over it with remote mountainous areas in Ireland, Scotland, and Wales big enough to have a fair few dissidents hiding out in secret cottages. The Thought Police had trouble bugging London's parklands alone and 1950s style helicopters are not as wide reaching or anywhere near as perceptive as 21st century helicopters.

Newspeak was a tool to degenerate the English language into simple jargon talk, but surely it was mainly for the serf like Proles instead of the elite Inner Party? It seems like Newspeak is another potential seed for IngSoc's destruction if people have limited enough language to not expand and maintain civilization.