Russia cuts European oil supply

[Ryan Thunder]

I don't have a source, unfortunately, as it was a ticker-tape item on the CBC.

Pretty much, the Russians cut the oil supply to Europe, and the Europeans said this is "unacceptable."

It does remind me that Russia has a strategic advantage over the EU due to their oil supply. I'd be inclined to think that would be at least as unacceptable than the immediate cutoff of oil supplies.

They should probably address this by developing alternatively-fueled engines, I figure, or developing some serious nuclear power and an electric train system, so Russia no longer has them by the balls.

[TithonusSyndrome]

The Times Online

Russians turn off Europe's oil supply
# Alarm at Moscow's strong-arm tactics
# Merkel tells The Times 'we need secure energy'
Tony Halpin in Moscow, Christine Seib and Roger Boyes

Moscow abruptly halted millions of barrels of oil destined for the EU via Belarus in an increasingly hostile wrangle with its neighbour.

The move raised further questions over whether Western Europe can trust Mr Putin for its energy supply. Experts said that Russia had a deeply entrenched habit of manipulating oil and gas supplies as a substitute for diplomatic policy.

Russia’s strong-arm tactics have added resonance in Britain, amid persistent speculation that Gazprom, the Kremlin-controlled gas group, will seek to buy Centrica, the British Gas group, which has 16 million gas and electricity customers in the UK. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, told The Times last night that Germany will use its six-month EU presidency to improve energy security on the Continent. In her first interview with a British newspaper she signalled that she would take a harsher line towards Russia than her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, who is now on the board of a German-Russian consortium constructing a gas pipeline linking Russian gasfields with Western Europe.

“For us, energy is what coal and steel used to be,” she said, referring to the driving forces behind the European project.

Russia’s “gas war” with Ukraine last January caused supplies to Europe to drop briefly by a third during one of the coldest winters recorded. In this case, Mr Putin’s struggle with President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, branded “Europe’s last dictator” by the US, once again reduced the EU to watching nervously from the sidelines as its energy supplies were hit.

Belarus considered itself Moscow’s closest ally until a week ago, but was on the verge of a trade war last night after the bitter flare-up over oil duties. More than 1.2 million barrels of oil a day flow from Russia through the Druzhba, or Friendship, pipeline, providing almost a quarter of Germany’s needs and 96 per cent of Poland’s imports, as well as supplies to Ukraine, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

Andrei Sharonov, Russia’s Deputy Trade and Economic Development Minister, accused Belarus of jeopardising contracts with European customers by imposing a tax on oil passing through the pipeline. Relations between the two countries have soured rapidly since New Year’s Eve, when Belarus and Russia’s state-run monopoly Gazprom came within minutes of failing to agree a gas contract for 2007.

The Government in Minsk was forced to accept a doubling of gas prices to prevent supplies from being cut to its ten million citizens.

The oil dispute centres on a tit-for-tat row over taxes. Minsk introduced a penalty on January 1 on Russian oil crossing Belarus to Europe, in retaliation against Moscow’s decision to slap a duty on oil it sold to Belarus. A government delegation from Belarus flew to Moscow last night to try to negotiate a settlement. But Mr Sharonov said that there would be no talks until Minsk cancelled its tax. Europe should expect to see the natural resources giant use the same ploy in the future to extract market prices for oil and gas out of former Soviet states, experts said.

Andris Piebalgs, the EU Energy Commissioner, said that he was seeking an “urgent and detailed explanation” about the cut in oil deliveries.

As intimidating as the Russian oil machine might seem, this can't be much better for Russia than it is for their European customers.

[Bluewolf]

From the BBC:

European gas supplies disrupted
Several European countries say their supplies of Russian gas have been cut sharply amid an energy price dispute between Moscow and Ukraine.

Turkey said all its gas supplies via Ukraine had been cut. Romania reported a 75% reduction. Bulgaria, Greece and Macedonia are also seeing shortfalls.

The Russian energy giant Gazprom says Ukraine has shut down three of the four pipelines for EU-bound Russian gas.

The European Commission says the supply cut is "completely unacceptable".

The EU depends on Russia for about a quarter of its total gas supplies, some 80% of which is pumped through Ukraine.

Ukraine's main energy company, Naftogaz, says talks with Gazprom aimed at resolving the crisis are due to resume in Moscow on Thursday. Naftogaz chairman Oleh Dubyna made the announcement, but it has not yet been confirmed by Gazprom.

Russia stopped supplying gas to Ukraine on New Year's Day in a row about unpaid bills. The row comes amid a cold snap across Europe likely to push up demand for gas.

Gazprom accuses Ukraine of an "unprecedented" shutdown of transit pipelines. It says only 40m cubic metres of gas is getting through to Europe, instead of 225m cu m.

Slovakia says it will declare a state of emergency over the drop in gas supplies, though it aims to prevent the shortage hurting key public services and ordinary consumers.

The Austrian energy company OMV said it would now have to tap into its gas reserves after its supply fell to 10% of the expected level.

Bulgaria, almost wholly dependent on Russian gas via Ukraine, says it has sufficient supplies for just a few days. It says no more gas is flowing through a pipeline that also supplies Turkey, Macedonia and Greece.

Gazprom decided to cut exports through Ukrainian pipelines by a fifth in a row over unpaid bills.

Wide impact

Early on Tuesday, Ukraine's Naftogaz said Russia had cut gas transit supplies by more than two-thirds and listed nine countries, including Germany, Poland, and Hungary which would receive reduced supplies as a result.

"Naftogaz of Ukraine considers that in such a case if European users receive less volumes of natural gas, all claims of the noted countries must be directed to Gazprom," said a statement on the company's website.

Russian gas supplies to Turkey via Ukraine have been completely cut, the Turkish government said.

The Turkish government announced it was increasing the flow through an alternative pipeline, under the Black Sea, to compensate.

Turkey gets about 65% of its gas from Russia and about one-third of its daily supply has now been cut, the BBC's Sarah Rainsford reports. But the government says it has sufficient gas stocks to avoid immediate economic hardship.

Czech supplies also fell significantly overnight, and Croatia, which imports 40% of its gas, said supply of Russian gas via Ukraine had completely halted.

EU deplores quarrel

In a statement on Tuesday, a European Commission spokesman said that "without prior warning and in clear contradiction with the reassurances given by the highest Russian and Ukrainian authorities to the European Union, gas supplies to some EU member states have been substantially cut - this situation is completely unacceptable".

"The Czech EU presidency and the European Commission demand that gas supplies be restored immediately to the EU and that the two parties resume negotiations at once with a view to a definitive settlement of their bilateral commercial dispute."

The new EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe are heavily - and in some cases entirely - dependent on Russian gas imports. Yet Germany and Italy together account for nearly half of the Russian gas consumed in the EU.

German Economy Minister Michael Glos called on Russia and Ukraine to resume talks, and is due to hold talks with senior Gazprom officials later on Tuesday.

But he said Germany could cope with any shortages. "Gas storage sites are full. And Germany gets its gas from different sources, for example from Norway or the Netherlands. Supplies from there could be increased," he said.

Many other countries are now tapping strategic reserves, built up to cope with just such a development, says the BBC's Europe correspondent Nick Thorpe.

Gazprom has promised to pump extra supplies through other pipelines - the Yamal from Arctic Russia through Belarus to Germany, and the Blue Stream to Turkey under the Black Sea.

'Gas stolen'

The move to reduce supplies going through the Ukraine by a fifth came after Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin held talks with Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller.

Mr Miller recommended that deliveries via Ukraine should be reduced "by the amount stolen by Ukraine, that is 65.3 million cubic metres of gas".

Ukraine has denied stealing gas, saying technical problems are disrupting the onward flow of gas to Europe.

The row between Russia and Ukraine has been simmering for weeks. Gazprom says Ukraine owes it more than $600m (£413m); Ukraine says it has paid its debt. The two sides have also failed to agree on the price Ukraine should pay for gas in 2009.

A similar row between Gazprom and Ukraine at the beginning of 2006 led to gas shortages in several EU countries.

EU officials have been meeting in Brussels to discuss the dispute and a delegation has also been sent for talks with both Ukrainian and Gazprom officials.

Gazprom wants Ukraine to pay $450 per 1,000 cu m of gas - more than double what Kiev says it is willing to pay, yet still less than what most EU states pay.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7812860.stm

[K. A. Pital]

Russia cut the supplies for the exact same amount Ukraine is stealing from the pipes - 65 000 000 cubic meters of gas.

Can't say I sympathize with either. Ukraine's economy is in shambles, and it just has nothing to pay the debt with most likely. Gazprom on the other hand might be a Russian party, but the money extolled from the Ukrainians will not improve the welfare of the general Russian worker much... if at all.

Ukraine's people will eventually suffer as a result of a business quarrel, and I never approve of economic profits received from the suffering of people.

[Siege]

It's unfortunate for South-East Europe (West Europe doesn't appear to be affected, we've other sources of gas), but I can't really fault Russia for refusing to let Ukraine steal its gas and not paying the bills. At any rate, if I recall correctly there's several pipelines being built right now, from Russia to Europe and from the Middle East to Europe, that would decrease the chances of something like this happening in the future.

[Bounty]

Russia has been saying that they will 'honour their contracts' with the rest of Europe, which makes Gazprom either hilariously optimistic about Ukraine or wilfully negligent. Anyone could have predicted that Ukraine would tap some of the gas for itself, which makes wonder if me Gazprom might be trying to prod its European customers into pressing Ukraine for the money. Whatever the case may be, Gazprom is playing a damn dirty game.

[folti78]

Local news(in hungarian) repoted gas supply to Hungary stopped around 15:30CET.

EDIT: Hungary uses its stored supply since this morning (source)

[Tiriol]

This whole incident, which has been all over the news here in Finland, might have the effect of almost forcing the EU into considering other sources for energy than Russian gas. Whether Gazprom is at fault or not, this will put a lot of pressure on politicians and officials to avoid future similarities - and very likely at Russia's (financial) expense. Georgia Crisis and now this? Russia doesn't have a lot of friends in Europe, just because of the general bad feelings about it, no matter Russia's actual fault or lack of in this case.

[Bounty]

This whole incident, which has been all over the news here in Finland, might have the effect of almost forcing the EU into considering other sources for energy than Russian gas.

Definitely. When a minor contract spat with one country cuts off half the Union, it's time to reconsider energy policies.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Hypothetical question, what if one fine day one EU country doesn't pay the bill? Let's say a melt down like what happened in Iceland happens to a EU nation and then the nation can't pay and Russia lowers the tap. What happens?

[M]

This whole incident, which has been all over the news here in Finland, might have the effect of almost forcing the EU into considering other sources for energy than Russian gas.

Definitely. When a minor contract spat with one country cuts off half the Union, it's time to reconsider energy policies.

Ukraine gas row hits EU supplies

Ukrainian officials had warned of the risk to EU supplies

EU nations have started to feel the impact of Russia's axeing of gas supplies to Ukraine, as Moscow accused Kiev of stealing EU supplies.

Hungary and Poland were the first EU states to have supplies disrupted.

[...]

Sound familiar? That's the BBC report from January 2006. I don't doubt that there are (and were since at least 2006) EU politicians who'd prefer energy independence from Russia. But the 2006 crisis didn't translate into major political capital, and assuming this incident will get resolved in a reasonable timeframe I doubt it'll be much different this time around.

[Tiriol]

Sound familiar? That's the BBC report from January 2006. I don't doubt that there are (and were since at least 2006) EU politicians who'd prefer energy independence from Russia. But the 2006 crisis didn't translate into major political capital, and assuming this incident will get resolved in a reasonable timeframe I doubt it'll be much different this time around.

If every year or so the public at large has to worry about their source for warmth because a nation has a quarrel with another, a quarrel entirely unrelated to the rest of the EU, then the pressure to do something about it will grow. The gas shortage didn't hit Finland back then nor now, but there is still a growing resentment towards any energy reliance on foreign powers (and often specifically on Russia, the traditional bogeyman). What about those nations directly affected by this? I could imagine that there will be more and more demands for their leaders to do something, almost ANYTHING to lessen the energy dependence.

[[R_H]]

Another reason not to build gas power plants along side the alternate energy power plants. Not that the Greens and Socialists care about where we're getting our gas from.

[Chris OFarrell]

I know France get a lot of their power from Nukes, why can't the rest of the EU follow suit and generate their heat from electrical power instead of Gas, using nukes?

I would have thought strategically that being so *utterly* reliant on Russian oil and gas, when Russia has always been more of a strategic opponent then an ally, was always a very odd thing. Year after year when the EU tries to rattle its saber at Russia over this or that, Moscow just shrugs and reaches for the gas and oil taps and like magic, the EU backs right off.

Not to mention the fact that fossil fuel reserves continue to deplete...

[Admiral Valdemar]

Gas has always been cheaper and more efficient than electricity, plus the added anti-nuke movement didn't help either.

This is why globalisation is a farce. Relying on political powers to supply you for the good of the free market is a surefire way to fuck yourself hard in the future, just as having your major industries outsourced is. No nation should be reliant for essentials on neighbours, especially ones who are less than stable.

[Bilbo]

Russia cut the supplies for the exact same amount Ukraine is stealing from the pipes - 65 000 000 cubic meters of gas.

Can't say I sympathize with either. Ukraine's economy is in shambles, and it just has nothing to pay the debt with most likely. Gazprom on the other hand might be a Russian party, but the money extolled from the Ukrainians will not improve the welfare of the general Russian worker much... if at all.

Ukraine's people will eventually suffer as a result of a business quarrel, and I never approve of economic profits received from the suffering of people.

Do we know for a fact that Ukraine is doing this? Russia and Putin are not good sources for anything these days and Russia has had an axe to grind with Ukraine since day 1.

[[R_H]]

I know France get a lot of their power from Nukes, why can't the rest of the EU follow suit and generate their heat from electrical power instead of Gas, using nukes?

I would have thought strategically that being so *utterly* reliant on Russian oil and gas, when Russia has always been more of a strategic opponent then an ally, was always a very odd thing. Year after year when the EU tries to rattle its saber at Russia over this or that, Moscow just shrugs and reaches for the gas and oil taps and like magic, the EU backs right off.

Not to mention the fact that fossil fuel reserves continue to deplete...

I have no idea, other than idiots are allowed to vote, and they tend to vote for idiots like them (anti-nukes, Greens, Socialists, Green Liberals etc.). The worst part about gas power plants in Switzerland is that a huge deal for gas delivery was signed with Iran. Great idea.

[folti78]

Russia cut the supplies for the exact same amount Ukraine is stealing from the pipes - 65 000 000 cubic meters of gas.

<snip>

Do we know for a fact that Ukraine is doing this? Russia and Putin are not good sources for anything these days and Russia has had an axe to grind with Ukraine since day 1.

Sadly, no. Although Naftogas tapped european supplies back in 2006:

Naftogas has publicly denied Gazprom's allegations. But in January 2006, the company did tap pipelines destined for Europe to cover its own shortfalls in the midst of a harsh winter. Supplies dipped across Europe, sparking a loud outcry that pushed Kiev and Moscow to solve the dispute quickly.

[folti78]

Local news(in hungarian) repoted gas supply to Hungary stopped around 15:30CET.

Same news in english:

Hungary gas deliveries from Ukraine halted
Tuesday 17:36, January 6th, 2009
Hungary's gas deliveries from Ukraine stopped at 15:25 on Tuesday, minister in charge of energy affairs Csaba Molnár and János Zsuga of MOL Földgázszállító, the gas transmission unit of Hungarian oil and gas company MOL, said after a meeting of the Gas Supply Crisis Committee.

Zsuga said gas deliveries to Hungary via Austria were halved to 3 million cubic meters from the amount stipulated in the supply contract.

The crisis committee called on power plants that have access to alternative energy sources to limit their gas consumption from 11:00 on Wednesday.

Limiting consumption of the power plants is expected to “save” a daily 6 million – 8 million cubic meters of gas, Zsuga said.

Preparations being made to release gas from Hungary's 500 million-cubic-meter strategic reserve. The reserve is capable of releasing 3.6 million cubic meters a day.

Hungary also has a little more than 3 billion cubic meters of commercial gas stores capable of releasing a daily 51.5 million cubic meters.

Daily gas consumption on Tuesday was expected to reach 68 million cubic meters. (MTI – Econews)

Gas to Croatia, Bulgaria, Turkey, Greece and Macedonia has been cut off too:

Russian Dispute With Ukraine Worsens, Hitting Europe (Update3)
By Daryna Krasnolutska and Rachel Graham

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Russia’s natural gas dispute with Ukraine worsened, shutting off fuel shipments to Europe for the first time in three years and driving energy prices higher.

Russia and Ukraine blamed each other for cuts as supplies from OAO Gazprom through Ukraine plummeted, deliveries to the Balkans halted and Slovakia declared an emergency. The spat over prices, transit tariffs and debt caused U.K. gas to jump as much as 27 percent and came amid freezing temperatures across Europe.

The dispute, the second in three years, shows how Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin are willing to use natural resources as a weapon to achieve political goals. European nations are burning more gas, the source of 24 percent of the world’s energy consumption last year, to reduce emissions linked to global warming.

“If Russia does not ensure gas supplies, other alternatives will be considered,” said Alexander Rahr, director of Russian programs at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “Both Russia and Ukraine will lose trust in eastern Europe. There won’t be winners.”

NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy Chief Executive Officer Oleh Dubina said he would return to Moscow Jan. 8 to resume talks. In 2006, Russia turned off all Ukrainian gas exports for three days, causing volumes to fall in the European Union, and also cut shipments by 50 percent last March during related debt claims.

Shipments Halted

Gazprom Deputy Chief Executive Officer Alexander Medvedev told Bloomberg Television that Ukraine shut three export pipelines and said “unilateral action of the Ukrainians” caused the shortfall. Naftogaz spokesman Valentyn Zemlyanskyi said Gazprom cut shipments to Europe through Ukraine to 74 million cubic meters a day, compared with about 300 million normally.

As the dispute intensified, Arctic air from Siberia pushed into Central Europe, northern France, Italy and parts of the U.K., bringing snow and temperatures below minus 25 degrees Celsius (minus 13 degrees Fahrenheit).

The moves came after Russia and Ukraine agreed yesterday to resume talks on their dispute and as Gazprom warned that Ukraine risks amassing a debt of “billions of dollars” if the conflict continues. Russia, which supplies a quarter of Europe’s gas, cut shipments to Ukraine on Jan. 1.

Russian gas flows to Bulgaria, Turkey, Greece and Macedonia were halted at the Ukrainian-Romanian border, Bulgaria’s Energy and Economy Ministry said. Gazprom pumps 17.8 billion cubic meters of gas a year through Bulgaria to the four countries under a 30-year contract signed in 2006. Bulgaria consumes about 3.5 billion cubic meters of that volume.

Gas Climbs

Bulgaria raised supplies from its only gas storage facility at Chiren today to 4.3 million cubic meters and called for emergency measures, the ministry said. Russian gas flows through Ukraine and then Romania to the southern Balkan states.

U.K natural gas for immediate delivery gained 13 percent to 67 pence a therm, a two-month high, as of 4:49 p.m. London time, according to broker ICAP Plc. That’s equal to $9.91 a million British thermal units. A therm is 100,000 Btus. Gas for tomorrow climbed 14 percent to 69 pence.

Temperatures plunged in Europe overnight, boosting demand for gas to heat homes and businesses. Ukrainian temperatures sank as low as minus 16 degrees Celsius today, according to forecaster CustomWeather Inc. That compares with a seasonal norm of minus 5 degrees.

German Cuts

E.ON Ruhrgas AG, the natural gas unit of Germany’s biggest utility, said it would experience “significant” cuts in gas deliveries, with Russian supplies piped through Ukraine forecast to fall to zero at the Waidhaus gas transit point on the German- Czech border in the course of the day.

The utility said it would still be able to supply clients as it sourced the fuel from and through other countries. Germany’s BDEW energy industry group said today that the same is true of its rivals.

“Our options will also reach their limits if these drastic supply cuts continue and temperatures stay at their very low level,” Bernhard Reutersberg, Chief Executive Officer of E.ON Ruhrgas, said in a statement.

OMV AG, central Europe’s biggest oil company, reported a “significant” cut in Russian gas supplies today. It said Russia warned overnight of a 30 percent to 40 percent reduction in supplies to the Baumgarten hub today, and further cuts in the early hours of this morning meant 10 percent of Russian gas was being delivered. It said supplies to Austrian customers were unaffected for now.

Effects Spreading

Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek said the dispute between Russia and Ukraine on gas prices is becoming “more serious” and the effects are spreading across Europe.

Other countries can’t be “held hostage” by Russia over gas supplies, Topolanek told reporters in Prague today. Ukraine may have to compromise on gas fees in the disagreement, he added. The Czech Republic holds the EU’s rotating presidency for the first six months of the year.

Slovakia declared emergency measures after gas supplies from Russia dropped 70 percent, allowing Slovensky Plynarensky Priemysel AS, the country’s dominant gas company, to restrict deliveries to some customers.

“Ukraine is trying to raise stakes as highly and as quickly as possible to force the EU to the negotiating table,” Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib Financial Corp., said by phone from London. “It would suit both Ukraine and Russia to have the EU as a mediator.”

Russian gas deliveries to Romania fell 65 percent, with supplies through the Isaccea 2 entry point cut entirely at 3:05 a.m. today, Romanian Economy Minister Adriean Videanu said. The country also gets gas from a second entry point. Croatia’s supply of gas from Russia via Ukraine was halted early this morning, its Economy Ministry said.

Polish Limits

Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe I Gazownictwo SA, Poland’s largest gas company, said supplies from Russia via Ukraine fell to 15 percent of planned volumes. The Warsaw-based company was using stored gas to meet demand and would ask its largest industry clients to limit usage of the fuel, Gornictwo said.

Italy’s supplies of Russian natural gas have dropped to about 10 percent of normal levels following OAO Gazprom’s cut in shipments through Ukraine, according to Gianni Di Giovanni, a spokesman for oil company Eni SpA.

Gazprom raised its demands on Jan. 4 as Chief Executive Officer Alexei Miller cited a possible price of $450 per 1,000 cubic meters for deliveries to Ukraine this month, reflecting the average price in countries bordering Russia’s neighbor. Ukraine paid $179.50 for its Russian gas last year and says $201 would be fair in 2009.

The EU sought to help defuse the conflict, sending a delegation headed by Czech Industry Minister Martin Riman for talks with Ukrainian officials.

IMF Bailout

Ukraine’s political leaders, President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko, are grappling with a financial crisis that has forced it to seek a $16.4 billion International Monetary Fund bailout.

“Neither of them wants to be seen to give in to Gazprom,” said Igor Kurinnyy, an oil and gas analyst with ING Groep NV.

The former Soviet state got the first tranche of $4.5 billion last month. An IMF mission will visit Kiev this month to check how the country implements the program and will decide on the second tranche, expected in February.

There were “no warnings” from the Russian side on cutting gas shipments, Naftogaz’s Dubina said in Kiev. “They probably decided to stop deliveries to Europe via Ukraine completely.” He said Ukraine urged the EU to mediate in talks.

Gazprom’s Medvedev traveled to Berlin to meet German Economy Minister Michael Glos today. Earlier in London Medvedev said Gazprom is working to diversify its export routes to Europe which bypass Ukraine, including two planned pipeline projects.

“Nord Stream and South Stream will be executed as soon as possible,” Medvedev said. The Nord Stream link, in which Gazprom owns 51 percent, is planned to run from Russia via the Baltic Sea to Germany. South Stream, where Eni is a partner, will run from the Black Sea to Bulgaria, where it will split into a southern route to Italy and a northern route to Austria.

To contact the reporters on this story: Daryna Krasnolutska in Kiev on dkrasnolutsk@bloomberg.net; Rachel Graham in London on graham13@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 6, 2009 12:06 EST

[M]

If every year or so the public at large has to worry about their source for warmth because a nation has a quarrel with another, a quarrel entirely unrelated to the rest of the EU, then the pressure to do something about it will grow. The gas shortage didn't hit Finland back then nor now, but there is still a growing resentment towards any energy reliance on foreign powers (and often specifically on Russia, the traditional bogeyman). What about those nations directly affected by this? I could imagine that there will be more and more demands for their leaders to do something, almost ANYTHING to lessen the energy dependence.

Maybe I came off too strong. I don't disagree with the principle, but I think you are somewhat overestimating the direct pressure this crisis will generate (again, assuming it gets resolved relatively quickly and without Europe actually having to go without heat or having to pay notably exorbitant prices). As the BBC article from January 2006 and the above Time Herald article TithonusSyndrome linked to (which is actually from January 2007) show, the European public at large already has had to worry about their source of gas every other winter for a number of years. But if you look at some of the proposed solutions such as the Baltic Sea pipeline or the South Stream pipeline, they are extensions of existing pipelines from Russia that bypass the Ukraine. The supporters of these pipelines see the Ukraine as the problem, not the dependence on Russia in general. Admittedly, every time Gazprom cuts the supply, the Nabucco pipeline proposal (which would be used to import gas from the Caspian Sea) also gets some upwind, but there's far from a clear move away from dependency on Russia. Part of the problem is that is unclear whether other countries would be able to match Russia's supply (which is one of the arguments against the Nabucco pipeline). Switching to other fossils would be more expensive and curb EU anti-global warming efforts. Nuclear energy is often met with public resistance, and so-called alternative energy sources are nowhere near ready to support a larger portion of the power grid. Basically, there are a lot of competing interests and no easy solutions (certainly none that could be implemented EU-wide), and I think whether energy independence from Russia becomes the top priority depends a lot on how the current conflict unfolds.

Of course I'm viewing this conflict through the lense of my own country. The EU is not a single unified entity in questions of energy policy. For Finland the current gas crisis is largely academical as you get your gas through a different pipeline; yet maybe the "traditional" distrust of Russia will result in an active change of energy policy sooner than in other EU countries. Do you happen to know if Finland is actively considering alternative energy policies? And can you quantify the growing resentment towards energy dependence you mentioned?

I know France get a lot of their power from Nukes, why can't the rest of the EU follow suit and generate their heat from electrical power instead of Gas, using nukes?

I would have thought strategically that being so *utterly* reliant on Russian oil and gas, when Russia has always been more of a strategic opponent then an ally, was always a very odd thing.

As I said above, not every EU country follows the same energy policy. As the 2007 BBC article notes, Germany "only" gets a quarter of its energy needs from Russia. Generally, the further west you go the less absolute the dependence becomes. So, far from every EU country but France is "utterly" reliant on Russian oil and gas.

That said, Germany currently gets a little less than a third of its energy from nuclear power. However there is fairly strong public opposition to Nuclear power. Under current German law, no new nuclear plants may be built and the existing ones will be taken offline after a running time dependent on age etc., the latest in 2021. In 2006 62% of the population approved the current nuclear exit policy or even wished to accelerate it. Last year, there has been a bit of movement on that front in the sense that Germans are now at least evenly divided on whether to extend the running times of the existing plants (which I suspect is more due to rising oil prices than periodic gas shortages), but I wouldn't expect a major policy shift.

Keep in mind that for Europeans, the Chernobyl disaster basically happened "next door". Regardless of its real implications for nuclear safety, it holds considerable emotional power.

[Patrick Degan]

I know France get a lot of their power from Nukes, why can't the rest of the EU follow suit and generate their heat from electrical power instead of Gas, using nukes?

Because nukes are BAD —the Greens say so. In fact, it's amusing to see Germany's Merkel bleat about the need for secure, reliable sources of energy considering how her country voted to phase out nuclear power generation by 2020.

[Thanas]

I know France get a lot of their power from Nukes, why can't the rest of the EU follow suit and generate their heat from electrical power instead of Gas, using nukes?

Because nukes are BAD —the Greens say so. In fact, it's amusing to see Germany's Merkel bleat about the need for secure, reliable sources of energy considering how her country voted to phase out nuclear power generation by 2020.

It is not that funny considering she opposed that move and that her party has tried to get rid of that utterly useless promise.

[Axis Kast]

Russia can't play this game for long, but they're probably keen on raising prices at a time when energy costs are plummeting due to the global downturn. In that sense, raising a stink now makes perfect sense.

Moscow might shoot itself in the foot in the long run, though, because increasingly visible strong-arm tactics will bolster support for the Nuboco pipeline out of Central Asia, not Southstream (which passes through Russia).

[mr friendly guy]

If Europe does become less reliant on Russian gas, is there another buyer Russia can go to? I know China is keen to gain gas from the central Asian states and already buys from us, but diversifying their sellers can't hurt. Any thoughts?

[Axis Kast]

Russia would undoubtedly turn to China, which might build any number of pipelines. It would take time, though, and the Chinese would probably prefer an overland route from Turkestan rather than transit governed by Russia, with whom they are far more likely to have serious policy disputes, meaning that something would have to trigger the change. A very major reduction in European dependence could do it, but I don't expect that anytime soon.