Israel declares unilateral cease-fire

[Bounty]

Israeli is to halt its three-week military offensive against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has said.

Mr Olmert said a unilateral Israeli ceasefire would take effect from 0200 (2400 GMT).

Earlier, a Hamas spokesman said it would fight until its demands were met, including an Israeli withdrawal.

Nearly 1,200 Palestinians have been killed since the violence began on 27 December. Thirteen Israelis have died.

Minutes before Mr Olmert was due to speak, a rocket was fired from Gaza, a BBC producer in Gaza said.

The Israeli prime minister's announcement came in a televised address following a late-night cabinet meeting.

Israel's operation in Gaza had fully achieved its aims, Mr Olmert said, with Hamas badly damaged both militarily and in terms of infrastructure.

But the success of the ceasefire depended on Hamas, he said.

If militant rocket fire into Israel continued, Hamas would respond with force, he said.

Good news for all involved I'd think. Let's hope it holds.

[Elfdart]

It'll hold until Israel decides to break the cease-fire, when they'll blame the Palestinians for it.

[Pablo Sanchez]

It'll hold until Israel decides to break the cease-fire, when they'll blame the Palestinians for it.

To be fair to Israel, they probably won't break the ceasefire, they'll just make an agreement with Hamas and then refuse to ever live up to it, so that the onus will be on Hamas to attack. You know, like with the 2008 ceasefire.

Nearly 1,200 Palestinians have been killed since the violence began on 27 December. Thirteen Israelis have died.

Yeah, that sounds like a just, reasonable response to aggression.

[MKSheppard]

Apparnetly if there's rocket attacks from Gaza on Israel, the ceasefire is off.

I interpret this as "sustained rocket attacks"; Israel's willing to overlook scattered firing that dies down as people get the message (TM), but not continued volleys of rockets at it's communities.

[Mr Bean]

Apparnetly if there's rocket attacks from Gaza on Israel, the ceasefire is off.

I interpret this as "sustained rocket attacks"; Israel's willing to overlook scattered firing that dies down as people get the message (TM), but not continued volleys of rockets at it's communities.

A question, considering all the random artillery fire in Iraq we(The US military) bought dozens of anti-mortar and anti-rocket attack units. Things like landbound CIWS(phalanx), lasers and the like. I know Gaza's a rather large area but why has Israel never bought some of these things stuck them on mobile units(I've heard converted 18-wheeler flatbeds) and stationed them outside Gaza or inside these towns?

I know you need to a nice radar to paint the targets but why has Israel never done this? (Excuse my ignorance on this subject)

[Ryan Thunder]

It'll hold until Israel decides to break the cease-fire, when they'll blame the Palestinians for it.

Did Hamas even respect the last ceasefire? I heard they were ceaselessly firing rockets over the border in spite of it.

Nearly 1,200 Palestinians have been killed since the violence began on 27 December. Thirteen Israelis have died.

Yeah, that sounds like a just, reasonable response to aggression.

I feel like saying something to the effect of "Counter-attacks can be a bitch, eh?", but then again, almost half of those are civilians, which is a tragedy in and of itself.

The violence most certainly did not begin on December 27th, though. I'd like to know what their criteria is for determining what is violence and what is not.

[cosmicalstorm]

Are there any bets for how this conflict will work itself out over the coming decades?
Is Israel stable in the longterm perspective or will they tear themselves apart somehow?

[Siege]

Call me cynical but it strikes me as clever maneuvering by Israel: they call a unilateral cease-fire "because all objectives have been achieved", then if Hamas sticks to it Olmert can call it a victory (because Hamas follows Israel's lead), and if Hamas breaks the cease-fire Israel can throw up its hands in mock surprise, proclaim it at least tried to be reasonable with those darned Palestinians, and resume bombing post-haste.

It fits with the Israeli strategy to delegitimize Hamas. After all, if Hamas keep up the rocket attacks despite the cease-fire the Israelis are all the more justified -in the eyes of many at least- to keep hitting back, and if Hamas accepts the cease-fire it would appear to have been beaten into submission. Either way Hamas can't claim the moral victory like Hezbollah did in the 2nd Lebanon War.

[Sea Skimmer]

A question, considering all the random artillery fire in Iraq we(The US military) bought dozens of anti-mortar and anti-rocket attack units. Things like landbound CIWS(phalanx), lasers and the like.

It’s hardly dozens, more like ten, and consist of exactly one system C-RAM 20mm guns. No lasers. The system only has a 60% shoot down rate, and presents a tremendous safety hazard to friendly aircraft. All it can really do is kill the first one or two rockets of a salvo, buying a few extra seconds for people to take cover. If nothing else it will run out of ammunition before it can destroy the dozen plus rocket salvos Hamas was launching.

Guess what our main defence against rockets in Iraq is and always has been? Killing rocket crews with helicopters and UAVs, and aggressive ground patrols around our bases to prevent them from ever even firing and to find and destroy arms caches and launchers. That’s rather close to what Israel is doing right now.

I know Gaza's a rather large area but why has Israel never bought some of these things stuck them on mobile units(I've heard converted 18-wheeler flatbeds) and stationed them outside Gaza or inside these towns?

Because C-RAM can only defend about a 500 yard radius. Hamas now has 60km range rockets. That means you’d need hundreds and hundreds of the things to get a 60% chance of downing a single rocket over all the communities under bombardment. That’d be billions of dollars spent which Isreal does not have, untop of the millions now being spent to fortify houses, and even build whole steel roofs over schools. Also, all the debris, and 20mm shells, still rain down, and the larger pieces are still lethal and destructive. No one would or fucking should accept that as a ‘solution’ to constant bombardment of there homes. Hamas just fucking needs to stop, but they don’t and wont because all the power they have comes from continuing ‘the struggle’ no matter how clearly futile it is.

Israel has been working on an active defence against rockets employing a very small guided missile called Iron Dome that should be far more reliable and cover an area which actually makes it practical to defend towns and cities, but it is still years from entering service.

[Master of Ossus]

A question, considering all the random artillery fire in Iraq we(The US military) bought dozens of anti-mortar and anti-rocket attack units. Things like landbound CIWS(phalanx), lasers and the like. I know Gaza's a rather large area but why has Israel never bought some of these things stuck them on mobile units(I've heard converted 18-wheeler flatbeds) and stationed them outside Gaza or inside these towns?

I know you need to a nice radar to paint the targets but why has Israel never done this? (Excuse my ignorance on this subject)

We had a thread about the potential to develop a laser-based interceptor for this. The Israelis deployed the Arrow system to Ashkalon, but found it too expensive and ineffective. Even the American system provides only about a 60% intercept rate, and only over a very limited area to protect major bases and such. Basically, these systems are very expensive to deploy over any sort of a large area like Southern Israel or Gaza, and they're not good enough to provide anything resembling a comprehensive defense, yet.

IIRC, Hamas has also been firing rockets in salvos of as many as a dozen rockets, which would quickly overwhelm even modern systems.

[bobalot]

It'll hold until Israel decides to break the cease-fire, when they'll blame the Palestinians for it.

No, you are wrong. Israel will keep up the blockade (While letting a trickle of trucks through for PR purposes), which will continue starving the Gaza strip of food, medicine and fuel. Any viable businesses will collapse, driving more into abject poverty. Eventually, living in a modern day ghetto will make somebody snap and Israel will have its excuse. Apparently starving 1.5 million people is within bounds of a "ceasefire".

[Master of Ossus]

Are there any bets for how this conflict will work itself out over the coming decades?
Is Israel stable in the longterm perspective or will they tear themselves apart somehow?

Israel's fundamental problem is that it has to choose between ceding territory to the Palestinians (which it's sort of been doing), forgetting about being a Jewish state, or forgeting about being a democratic one. Nonetheless, it's pretty stable, and despite its VERY long-run demographic issues it's not going anywhere. The Israelis are pretty darn well unified, and aren't about to engage in civil conflicts that would be destructive enough to remove it as the preeminent power in the region.

[TheKwas]

It'll hold until Israel decides to break the cease-fire, when they'll blame the Palestinians for it.

Did Hamas even respect the last ceasefire? I heard they were ceaselessly firing rockets over the border in spite of it.

That would be a myth.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYhGYZxl-f8

Over the time of the ceasefire, 15 rockets were launched in total and none of them were launched by Hamas, but by rival groups trying to undermine Hamas. The ceasefire was broken when Hamas was supposedly digging a tunnel into Israel to capture an Israeli soldier, and Israel responded by air-strikes.

[MKSheppard]

Link

From 04 November through 18 December 2008, Hamas and affiliated Palestinian terrorist groups fired 213 rockets and 126 mortar shells into Israel.

Pretty uh....ACTIVE for a "truce". Doesn't matter if it's HAMAS or not firing them. See, HAMAS is the elected government of Gaza, and thus uh, responsible.

[TheKwas]

The ceasefire was, for all intents and purposes on BOTH sides, over after the November 4th incident. Legally it was in place until December but neither side respected it at that point and it was open hunting season. However, saying that the truce effective ended a month before it legally ended is a very different matter from saying: "they were ceaselessly firing rockets over the border in spite of it."

Up until the abduction plot and the air-strikes, Hamas didn't fire a single rocket and was actively policing other groups to do the same.

Also, it certainly does matter if Hamas is the one firing the rockets or not. If the FLQ decides one day that they want Maine to join an independent Quebec for whatever crazy reason, and decides to fire rockets into maine despite government efforts to stop them, The American government still has no right, either moral or legal, to declare war on the Canadian government.

[Xon]

Also, it certainly does matter if Hamas is the one firing the rockets or not. If the FLQ decides one day that they want Maine to join an independent Quebec for whatever crazy reason, and decides to fire rockets into maine despite government efforts to stop them, The American government still has no right, either moral or legal, to declare war on the Canadian government.

Sure they do. The only thing which makes it 'legal' for another country to invade another is having the force of arms todo so.

The morality is another issue entirely.

[MKSheppard]

HA!

2:19 AM Almost made it to bed, Israel breaks ceasefire as IAF hits rocket launcher about to launch from Northern Gaza. That didn't last very long at all

[Bilbo]

It'll hold until Israel decides to break the cease-fire, when they'll blame the Palestinians for it.

What do you base this on? How many times with no provocation has Israel broken a ceasefire?

[Ryan Thunder]

The ceasefire was, for all intents and purposes on BOTH sides, over after the November 4th incident. Legally it was in place until December but neither side respected it at that point and it was open hunting season. However, saying that the truce effective ended a month before it legally ended is a very different matter from saying: "they were ceaselessly firing rockets over the border in spite of it."

Ah, my mistake. Sorry.

Also, it certainly does matter if Hamas is the one firing the rockets or not. If the FLQ decides one day that they want Maine to join an independent Quebec for whatever crazy reason, and decides to fire rockets into maine despite government efforts to stop them, The American government still has no right, either moral or legal, to declare war on the Canadian government.

They would if we did nothing to stop the FLQ from firing rockets into Maine.

[ray245]

HA!

2:19 AM Almost made it to bed, Israel breaks ceasefire as IAF hits rocket launcher about to launch from Northern Gaza. That didn't last very long at all

I really have to question the lines of communication among the Hamas. If orders are not send in time to one rocket unit, we will have a war on our hands.

[Lonestar]

A question, considering all the random artillery fire in Iraq we(The US military) bought dozens of anti-mortar and anti-rocket attack units. Things like landbound CIWS(phalanx), lasers and the like. I know Gaza's a rather large area but why has Israel never bought some of these things stuck them on mobile units(I've heard converted 18-wheeler flatbeds) and stationed them outside Gaza or inside these towns?

I know you need to a nice radar to paint the targets but why has Israel never done this? (Excuse my ignorance on this subject)

This is anecdotal, but I have a co-worker who was at Camp Victory for 2 years, and he had derision for the C-RAM's ability to shoot down mortar attacks, and to a lesser degree rocket attacks(it didn't do too well stopping mortar rounds, it did somewhat better stopping rocket rounds). It could be that Israel has determined that there is nothing on the market that is "super-cool stops-all" and decided that the best defense is a good offense.

[Guardsman Bass]

HA!

2:19 AM Almost made it to bed, Israel breaks ceasefire as IAF hits rocket launcher about to launch from Northern Gaza. That didn't last very long at all

How fast are Hamas's lines of communication? It's possible they hadn't reached every little rocket crew running around firing rockets into Israel.

If they had, then that was a very short cease-fire indeed.

[Master of Ossus]

From the statements Hamas is putting out, it doesn't seem like they're particularly interested in "honoring" the cease-fire. And Israel did declare it without talking to them, so I don't know why Hamas' continued fighting would raise any eyebrows.

On the other hand, hopefully they'll see this as an opportunity to start licking their wounds while the Israelis get out of Dodge.

Edit:

According to Reuters, Hamas has rejected the cease fire and renewed rocket attacks on Southern Israel.

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Palestinian rockets fired from the Gaza Strip hit the southern Israeli town of Sderot on Sunday, the first such attack since a unilateral Israeli ceasefire went into effect, Channel 10 television reported.

Seconds after Israel Radio announced that a rocket alarm had sounded in Sderot, a Channel 10 reporter in the town said he heard two explosions. Channel Two television said six rockets had been fired at southern Israel.

Earlier, Israeli forces and Palestinian militants waged a brief gun battle in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli military and Hamas sources said. Hamas has rejected the ceasefire, saying it would continue fighting as long as Israeli troops remained in the territory.

(Writing by Jeffrey Heller, Editing by Ori Lewis)

[Minischoles]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle ... 835981.stm

Rocket salvo tests Gaza ceasefire

A volley of rockets has been fired into southern Israel from Gaza, hours after a unilateral Israeli ceasefire began.

At least four out of six rockets landed near the town of Sderot, with no reports of injuries. Israel launched an air strike on Gaza in response.

The exchange puts an immediate strain on the ceasefire, which followed three weeks of fighting.

Israel says its troops will not pull out for now, but Hamas said it would not accept an Israeli presence in Gaza.

Nearly 1,200 Palestinians and 13 Israelis have been killed since Israel launched its offensive against Hamas on 27 December.

Shortly before the rockets fell, Israeli troops briefly traded fire with Hamas militants in the north of the Gaza Strip after coming under attack, Israeli military officials said.

[Korto]

Hamas has no moral obligation to honour this cease-fire.
They weren't asked about the cease-fire.
They weren't involved in writing up the cease-fire.
They never signed the cease-fire.

Besides which, as long as Israel stays within Gaza and concedes nothing, Hamas can't stop, or they'll look defeated. As long as they continue firing, they're not defeated. They may look like Monty Python's Black Knight, but they're not defeated.