[What If} Massive Killer Asteroid to Hit Earth in 50 Years

[K. A. Pital]

Cool.

The Earth economy becomes so energy-hungry by then, that the advanced space infrastructure could probably decay without a colossal goal which pushed it forward.

Really, if they were building up system defences, and constructing dozens if not hundreds of large Orion ships, what is this whole space infrastructure going to do after the threat is vanquished?

Of course, Orion ships have their value as interplanetary cargo haulers and weapon platforms, so perhaps a "trade and conflict" situation can become common for most colonies of Earth once the grip of central authority which pushed Earth to the limit for evading death weakens itself.

It's a situation where a Kardashev I civilization pushes itself beyond the "one" designation and to system-wide energy gathering since enormous energies are needed to deflect the Earthfucker, but once it's gone, will the system civilization further expand, or will it decay?

[Dave]

Nowhere in the OP do I see the orbital period of this asteroid. If the orbital period were 25 years, so that it swings past us once (making it easier to modify its orbit earlier), then smacks us the second time around, does that change things? What if the orbital period were one year, simply getting closer and closer to Earth until it hits us 50 years from now?

[Junghalli]

Nowhere in the OP do I see the orbital period of this asteroid. If the orbital period were 25 years, so that it swings past us once (making it easier to modify its orbit earlier), then smacks us the second time around, does that change things? What if the orbital period were one year, simply getting closer and closer to Earth until it hits us 50 years from now?

If it orbits close to the sun deflecting it with a giant solar sail becomes a more viable solution, but I have doubts about the feasibility of getting one to it, or even building one at all. It'd hae to be at least 9 billion square kilometers IIRC.

[General Zod]

Nowhere in the OP do I see the orbital period of this asteroid. If the orbital period were 25 years, so that it swings past us once (making it easier to modify its orbit earlier), then smacks us the second time around, does that change things? What if the orbital period were one year, simply getting closer and closer to Earth until it hits us 50 years from now?

If it orbits close to the sun deflecting it with a giant solar sail becomes a more viable solution, but I have doubts about the feasibility of getting one to it, or even building one at all. It'd hae to be at least 9 billion square kilometers IIRC.

A massive solar sail is still a retarded solution. We just don't have the kind of manufacturing infrastructure to build one and successfully attach it to the asteroid. Quite frankly it would be more viable to build a few hundred hydrogen missiles and hope that you blow a big enough chunk out of the asteroid as to knock it off course.

[Sky Captain]

I just found video of a simulation how a collision with object few hundred km in a diameter with velocity of 70 000 km/h or ~20 km/s might look like.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjk-9yJBIG0

Here we are talking about a collision with object roughly 5000 km in diameter going 50 - 60 km/s assuming it has highly elliptic orbit, potentially faster if it is coming from interstellar space releasing roughly four orders of magnitude more energy. If it hits at shallow angle Earth might still be in one piece although turned into glowing ball of magma. If impact occurs at high angle Earth is going to explode into second asteroid belt.

[Solauren]

What about landing a few vehicles on the asteroid and using there engines to accelerate the asteroid so it flys right past us, while at the same time changing it's heading? Say a 15% increase in velocity and a 5% declination from it's heading (assuming a direct flat plane along it's heading to earth)?

If it reached the 'collision point' even a few weeks ahead of Earth, it should go right past and under us without a 'major' problem. (Major being a relative term here).

[General Zod]

What about landing a few vehicles on the asteroid and using there engines to accelerate the asteroid so it flys right past us, while at the same time changing it's heading? Say a 15% increase in velocity and a 5% declination from it's heading (assuming a direct flat plane along it's heading to earth)?

That has about as much viability as a solar sail. We just don't have the manufacturing capability to create vehicles with that kind of accuracy and power. (Landing on the asteroid alone would be a monumental feat).

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

What about landing a few vehicles on the asteroid and using there engines to accelerate the asteroid so it flys right past us, while at the same time changing it's heading? Say a 15% increase in velocity and a 5% declination from it's heading (assuming a direct flat plane along it's heading to earth)?

If it reached the 'collision point' even a few weeks ahead of Earth, it should go right past and under us without a 'major' problem. (Major being a relative term here).

I've already addressed this. Several times, in fact. Read the thread. You'd need the sort of power levels commonly achieved in soft sci-fi. The amount of thrust required to deflect the impactor over the course of fifty years would accelerate a Space Shuttle orbiter at nearly 290,000 gees. To attempt an one-shot, instantaneous deflection would require the Death Star.

[Junghalli]

Indeed, as I've said already, you'd probably have better luck trying to move Earth out the way, because at least you don't have to deal with the problem of dragging all the required mega-infrastructure across billions of kilometers of space.

[Lord MJ]

After watching that video I think I should've changed the scenario to an Asteroid the size of Texas so at least we would have a chance...

Thinking about something, the Oceans will boil as a result of the impact, and the Earth will be covered with vaporized rock with will melt the underlying crust. Is it possible that eventually that the crust will re solidify and the ocean water will reconstitute itself? A new primordial soup is formed giving life to single celled organisms, that eventually evolve into more complex organisms and eventually evolving into an advanced sapient species that will eventually reach our level of technology.

Should this hypothetical advanced species come to pass, would there be any trace of human civilization that this race could make the determination that humans once existed, had advanced technology and ruled the Earth? Or would all trace of humanity be erased in the cataclysm leaving no evidence that the human race ever existed at all?

[Samuel]

After watching that video I think I should've changed the scenario to an Asteroid the size of Texas so at least we would have a chance...

Thinking about something, the Oceans will boil as a result of the impact, and the Earth will be covered with vaporized rock with will melt the underlying crust. Is it possible that eventually that the crust will re solidify and the ocean water will reconstitute itself? A new primordial soup is formed giving life to single celled organisms, that eventually evolve into more complex organisms and eventually evolving into an advanced sapient species that will eventually reach our level of technology.

Should this hypothetical advanced species come to pass, would there be any trace of human civilization that this race could make the determination that humans once existed, had advanced technology and ruled the Earth? Or would all trace of humanity be erased in the cataclysm leaving no evidence that the human race ever existed at all?

We will be completely gone. The world without us shows how easy it is normally- pulverization would make it total. It might be interesting how long our space equipment lasts, but that is it and would be blamed on aliens.

[Junghalli]

Thinking about something, the Oceans will boil as a result of the impact, and the Earth will be covered with vaporized rock with will melt the underlying crust. Is it possible that eventually that the crust will re solidify and the ocean water will reconstitute itself? A new primordial soup is formed giving life to single celled organisms, that eventually evolve into more complex organisms and eventually evolving into an advanced sapient species that will eventually reach our level of technology.

The thing about that is Earth will probably on be a water planet for another billion years or so, so unless the second generation life evolves much faster than first generation life it probably won't get beyond bacteria.

Actually, some present life might survive the impact. Bacteria living in wet cracks in the deep crust. Maybe.

[Grandmaster Jogurt]

Even assuming this ball is made of ice, at the relative velocities discussed, such as GrandMasterTerwynn's 51km/s, Earthfucker is going to have kinetic energy in the low 10^31J range. This isn't just going to melt every solid bit of the planet; it's almost enough to scatter Earth's mass entirely. In fact, even if the Earth was entirely solid iron at 300K to begin with, this much energy would be enough to raise the temperature of the entire planet to nearly 9000K, well past the boiling point of iron.

I have a hard time seeing any sort of life survive under those conditions.

[Lord MJ]

Social Politically, once it becomes clear that the Asteroid will hit Earth if not diverted a few things will happen. The politicians don't believe it, in which case we are screwed, the politicians do believe it, but the nations of the Earth spend two decades trying to figure out how to form a one world government whose top and sole priority is to stop Earthfucker from turning Earth into the Earth Memorial Asteroid Belt, in which case we are screwed. Hopefully though enough people in powerful positions realize that we have a 50 year deadline and can comprehend what is necessary to pull off a project of this magnitude, and do away with governments as a result.

Literally 100% of Earth's economic and industrial infrastructure would need to be devoted to the project. All other concerns are non-important. The US government will probably have to go with either the President assuming dicatorial powers, or the military simply killing the entire government and taking over. This will probably need to happen on all other first world nations as well. In the end a supra national PMO office will need to be created to manage all the Earth's resources. The first world nations will need to come together to form this. All nations will be subservient to this office. If this doesn't happen within 5 years at the latest, we're screwed. As for the third world nations, they will be compelled to cooperate with the PMO office. And when I mean compelled, I mean if the PMO Office asks BlahBlahStan for materials or human labor and they refuse, BlahBlahStan's Capitol City is a smoking crater less than 24 hours later. Anyone that refuses to cooperate with the PMO office will be destroyed. Obviously Democratic Elections will cease ( can't afford any distractions given the time table.) It would be every NWO Conspiracy Theorists worst nightmare.

Projects to both save the planet and evacuate to Mars will be undertaken.

Populations of areas like Africa will be virtually enslaved to provide the human labor needed for the massive industrial programs. Activists will protest this slavery, and will be promptly executed shortly thereafter.

Chances are this still wont stop Earthfucker, but at least we may successfully colonize Mars.

If we do stop Earthfucker, Earth would have been reduced to a barely habitable wasteland, all our resources will be depleted (though Mars and Earthfucker will provide good sources of raw material). The PMO office will either maintain power indefinitely, or will collapse and the world breaks out into an apocalyptic World War. The only benefit to come out of this (other than the successful saving of Earth) is we would now have advanced Space Travel technology. Other than that though we will be inhabiting a screwed up planet and our morals will be barley above barbarism. Large numbers of people will quickly die off as a result.

Earthfucker is the end of human civilization no matter whether it hits or not.

[PeZook]

Jesus christ...executions? Killing off governments? Blasting uncooperative shitholestanis with nuclear weapons?

You know, it's entirely possible to implement a command economy and mobilize it for war (let's not kid ourselves, we are waging war here) without executing dissidents and violent dictatorships and the inevitable civil war...

Just implement national planning comittees, pass special "Prevent Species Dieout" bills which make all enterprises subject to those comittees, then form an international body which will manage the industrial program necessary.

And slave labor? Please. We need to build massive amounts of spaceships, not dig shiny rocks from the ground. Unqualified slave labor will be completely useless here.

And BTW, with 7 billion 100 megaton warheads needed to deflect Earthfucker, I really don't think we can spare any for nuking Botswana.

[Samuel]

It is obviously Stalinism... In Space!

Thanks for sanity Pezook.

the population control is done in an extreme fashion by a scientific bureau, just as much of the work (Planners), and individual human lives are no longer considered to have any ultimate value - only the survival of the species. The control is more than totalitarian, with CCTV and the full might of modern technologies, up to implants in humans, collecting the data about the personal life, even the thoughts of each human. All decisions are taken on the basis of industrial utility for space exploration (which is measured in the usefulness for their space satellite energy grid, and any plight of humans is totally disregarded). Widespread and heavy chemical conditioning is used to make humans conform to this civilization - the dire situation allowed scientists to experiment on humans en masse and thus create very potent and efficient biochemical control agents.

Except all resources will be aimed for getting the program to work... AND the system will break down with the disturbances from the near collision.

Why would you need a eugenics board?
Why would you need thought control?
Why would you need total conformity?

[K. A. Pital]

Except all resources will be aimed for getting the program to work... AND the system will break down with the disturbances from the near collision.

Why? The political center of this system would be relocated from Earth quite obviously to ensure survival in case of failure.

Why would you need a eugenics board?

Did I specify one?

Why would you need thought control?

To ensure the authoritarian government knows fully that "every man does his part". It depends on the industrial ease of thought control. If it's industrially feasible at a smaller cost than the cost of losses due to lack of information about people's actions, it may not be implemented.

Why would you need total conformity?

Because the government would not have the luxury of being able to divert resources to people's consumption. Generally, in the past, social unrest was mitigated by the governments setting higher wages and forcing higher standards of consumption, helping the disenfranchised. In this new system there is no resources to do it.

Basically, the concentration of all economic surplus would be on production, not consumption. This means that people's consumption would be fixed, or go down even, but not rise. Category Prime (heavy space industry) will grow at the expense of current consumption for a total of 50 years - that's a lot of time, so control is required.

[PeZook]

Why would you need a eugenics board?
Why would you need thought control?
Why would you need total conformity?

I think he's talking about the post-crisis society which did not abandon their emergency measures after Earthfucker missed.

[His Divine Shadow]

A sufficiently huge one might do the trick.

Good luck making one big enough with our current manufacturing capabilities.

Not to mention asteroid most likely would be spinning making impossible to keep that sail aligned against the sun.

So why not send those nukes we got into it's side one after another and try and turn the asteroid into a kind of orion drive.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

So why not send those nukes we got into it's side one after another and try and turn the asteroid into a kind of orion drive.

Mostly because you'd need at least 700 billion of them. Of course, I assumed that you had them stored at Earth, and you shot them, via mass-driver, at a remote Orion drive that would attempt to produce a deflection (so the Orion wouldn't have to haul its own fuel mass,) I assumed 100% of the kinetic energy of the kamikaze Orion would go into pushing Earthfucker into the direction we want it to go (meaning the estimate is on the low side,) and I completely disregarded the acceleration in the general direction of Earth that Earthfucker would experience because of its mutual gravitational attraction to the Sun (because I'm too lazy to do the integration, meaning the estimate is really on the low side.) All these nukes and requisite infrastructure would also be built in time for an intercept twenty years in (otherwise my estimate is so low as to have about as much relation to reality as that report of WMDs in Iraq.) We'd need over three billion times as many nukes as existed on Earth at the height of the Cold War.

[Samuel]

Why? The political center of this system would be relocated from Earth quite obviously to ensure survival in case of failure.

The majority of humanity will be on Earth and you have to control them with people on Earth. Unless you get the orbital mind control lasers up and running. Give me that and the Semi-Concious Liberation Army and the world is yours

Did I specify one?

the population control is done in an extreme fashion by a scientific bureau,

Population control on its own would not need a scientific bureau- the only way this makes sense is if they were choosing based on genes.

To ensure the authoritarian government knows fully that "every man does his part". It depends on the industrial ease of thought control. If it's industrially feasible at a smaller cost than the cost of losses due to lack of information about people's actions, it may not be implemented.

Finally, a solution to the free-rider problem! I don't think that it can be worth it for this use though- you need an additional industry to make the mind control tech. Still, the black market could become large enough to warrent it.

Because the government would not have the luxury of being able to divert resources to people's consumption. Generally, in the past, social unrest was mitigated by the governments setting higher wages and forcing higher standards of consumption, helping the disenfranchised. In this new system there is no resources to do it.

Basically, the concentration of all economic surplus would be on production, not consumption. This means that people's consumption would be fixed, or go down even, but not rise. Category Prime (heavy space industry) will grow at the expense of current consumption for a total of 50 years - that's a lot of time, so control is required

That doesn't require total conformity. What you do is you jack down the standard of living at the start and slowly increase it over the following 50 years. Or eliminate the safety net so that any complaints get replaced by third worlders.

[K. A. Pital]

Or eliminate the safety net so that any complaints get replaced by third worlders.

Riots and armed rebellions by the people who are replaced aren't going to be easy to contain unless your information system and conformity level in society is high.

The majority of humanity will be on Earth and you have to control them with people on Earth.

I'm talking about the post-Earthfucker society mostly. It's political center is relocated, so it can temporarily be at ease with the destruction of the Earth political system, if it controls all or most technical resources and orbital nuclear-armed spaceships.

[PeZook]

By the way, the name "Earthfucker" cracks me up. Hell, it cracks my wife up, and she doesn't care about this discussion.

I constantly get images like: "Mr. President, here's the briefing pertaining to operation 'Screw Earthfucker' "

[Deathstalker]

Just a pie in the sky thought. Is it possible to deflect Earthfucker into Venus, scouring that planet clean? Or, as I imagine should we just take our deflection and call it even?

[CaptainChewbacca]

Just a pie in the sky thought. Is it possible to deflect Earthfucker into Venus, scouring that planet clean? Or, as I imagine should we just take our deflection and call it even?

We have a hard enough time hitting a missile with a rocket, I seriously doubt we can hit a planet with a planetoid.