Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

Post by General Zod »

KrauserKrauser wrote: There was no direct quote, but multiple times in the article the implied goal was the elimination of nukes altogether.
So why not find a direct quote? Surely it can't be that hard as much as the media clings to everything Obama says. This is like trying to get the gist of a legal document by simply reading a summary even though the summary might have gotten it wrong.
I simply don't like the idea of that degree of an idealism in that powerful of an office. I believe that nukes are here to stay and the desire to put Pandora back in the box stated by our highest office makes me skeptical of the quality of future policy that we may see from Obama.
So idealism in a powerful office is bad. . .because you say so?
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

Post by The Spartan »

KrauserKrauser wrote:
The Spartan wrote:How, exactly?

Embargo them and wreck our weakened economy as the oil from Iran goes somewhere else? Cut off their local uranium supplies? Stop shipments of the centrifuges that they already have? Invade and have the military cut to pieces? Nuke them into a parking lot?
Well if he is going to get the sort of international cooperation necessary for getting the world nuke stockpile reduced or eliminated, then having the international community support the embargo to remove the market for Iran's oil should be possible. We could try incentive based carrots but AFAIK they do not have a history of working with the current regime in Iran.

If Obama really had this as his goal, to reduce the spread of nukes, then he should be much more active in getting Iran to stop development as they are the newest country trying to get into the club. If his efforts fail to get Iran to stop their progress, his influence will be greatly diminished when the next country trys to join. Obviously trade embargoes don't work, force won't be willingly used, threats of force are ignored and bargaining through proxies doesn't help, so his approach should be to find a way to get Iran to stop, not justify an expansion of the missle shield meant to defend against Russian nukes with the future Iranian nuclear force that he was unable to stop from developing.

If Obama wants to work towards reducing the number of countries with nukes, allowing Iran to go nuclear doesn't work in his favor. If they can openly defy the international community, what is to stop any other country in the future? If the Iranians were allowed to develop nukes why can't the Ukraine, Georgia or Saudi Arabia? Venezula? Cuba?
How does any of that answer the question? I asked how you intend to stop Iran from developing nukes and then ticked off the ways you could do it and why they won't work (sarcastically, I admit) and you responded by basically saying that it would be good to stop Iran from getting nukes without mentioning how you intend to do this since all the methods we have of getting them to not build nukes are unworkable. For Christ's sake you actually admit that you have no idea how we can accomplish this even though you insist that we must do it!
My main point was that the comment didn't make any sense. The missle shield is being expanded to defend against non-existent future nuclear missles? Really? Sounds like he wants the missle shield but doesn't Russia to be angry at him for wanting it.
Presuming this is accurate, has it never occurred to you that diplomatic realities may require a nation's leader to use to be circumspect in their explanations?
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

Post by Flagg »

Darth Wong wrote:
KrauserKrauser wrote:It would be easier, if your stated goal was to eliminate or reduce the spread of nukes. If he were able to successfully stop Iran from getting the bomb, it would then stand to reason that it would easier to get other countries to stop developing nuke tech in the future?
So it's "easier" if you simply assume that we can just "stop" them through unspecified means? That's great. Once again, your superior reasoning skills leave us all in awe.
He obviously means invasion or letting Israel try to hit their nuke facilities. Not surprising that a dumbass like him has a hardon for another unwinnable war or a slugging match between Israel and Iran which could easily lead to a regional conflict with the US and NATO stuck in the middle.
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

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KrauserKrauser wrote:Again, if he is unable to stop Iran to get nukes and is covering his ass in case he fails with the missle shield expansion, how is it going to be any easier to stop the next country from developing the bomb if they have the recent Iranian example of success to guide them?
You do realize that developing/building a missile shield is something that was not just started under Obama, but has actually been running for some time now? To be exact, many of those in the "hardcore left" OPPOSE a missile shield (for stupid reasons).

I look at it this way: Why is a nuclear armed Iran or North Korea so dangerous, and in return why do they want to get nukes? Because there currently is no real defense against ICBMs. So, the moment you have nukes and a means of delivery you are a VERY SEROUS threat to everyone in range (in the case of ICBMs: everyone on the planet), which means that those countries will have to treat you very differently. A nuclear armed Iraq would not have been invaded.

Now, if you introduce a missile shield, the entire equation changes. Just acquiring nukes and some kind of missile delivery system is not enough anymore. In fact, once everybody starts acquiring effective missile shields, the only possible means of delivery with any chance in hell of getting through is a strategic bomber force able to effectively engage and defeat the defenses of the country you are attacking. How many countries can afford something like that? Not many, and most definitely not countries like Iran and North Korea.

By building an effective missile shield, you've neutered the threat of a nuclear armed Iran and North Korea, and thereby neutered the entire reason for countries like Iran and North Korea to get nuclear weapons.
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

Post by Mr Bean »

Time to step off the dogpile bandwagon and agree with KrauserKrauser. On some points anyway.

Pledging a no nuke policy is not only unrealistic but it's counter-productive because it becomes harder to do tons of things if your goal is nuclear weapon elimination. For example you can reduce the number of nukes you have by switching out all your old 70's and 80's run nukes for modern nukes atop better missiles. Your trading many less accurate nukes for fewer but more effective nukes. Calling for elimination makes such a step harder. Further nuclear weapons are a powerful deterrent, why do you think all the third world shitholes want one? A nuclear weapon is a powerful bargaining chip, even if Iran, NK, Britian, China France, India, Pakistan, Russia, and the US all disarm tomorrow, what's to stop say Cuba from aquring a nuke twenty years down the road and menacing America with it? It's an rather unlikely example, but lets take a more likely one, Iran says fine no nukes, then five years after disarmament, re-arms with nukes? What then? Restarting nuclear production when you've eliminate all weapons takes time, time you might not get if one country or another decides to break the agreement first. Hell if Obama got his wish we'd likely be the first ones to break such an agreement as the next Neo-con administration gets elected 4-12 years down the line.


How bitter would that be to have Obama succeed in elmination the world's nuclear stockpiles only to see President Jeb Bush restart nuclear weapon production after he's out of office? KrauserKrauser is dead right about one thing, global elimination of nuclear weapons is both unrealistic and self-defeating.

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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

Post by General Zod »

Mr Bean wrote:Time to step off the dogpile bandwagon and agree with KrauserKrauser. On some points anyway.

Pledging a no nuke policy is not only unrealistic but it's counter-productive because it becomes harder to do tons of things if your goal is nuclear weapon elimination. For example you can reduce the number of nukes you have by switching out all your old 70's and 80's run nukes for modern nukes atop better missiles. Your trading many less accurate nukes for fewer but more effective nukes. Calling for elimination makes such a step harder. Further nuclear weapons are a powerful deterrent, why do you think all the third world shitholes want one? A nuclear weapon is a powerful bargaining chip, even if Iran, NK, Britian, China France, India, Pakistan, Russia, and the US all disarm tomorrow, what's to stop say Cuba from aquring a nuke twenty years down the road and menacing America with it? It's an rather unlikely example, but lets take a more likely one, Iran says fine no nukes, then five years after disarmament, re-arms with nukes? What then? Restarting nuclear production when you've eliminate all weapons takes time, time you might not get if one country or another decides to break the agreement first. Hell if Obama got his wish we'd likely be the first ones to break such an agreement as the next Neo-con administration gets elected 4-12 years down the line.


How bitter would that be to have Obama succeed in elmination the world's nuclear stockpiles only to see President Jeb Bush restart nuclear weapon production after he's out of office? KrauserKrauser is dead right about one thing, global elimination of nuclear weapons is both unrealistic and self-defeating.
Where was anyone suggesting that we eliminate nukes entirely as opposed to just reducing them? Krauser was getting his shit jumped for attacking points that nobody was making, not even the article.
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

Post by Mr Bean »

General Zod wrote: Where was anyone suggesting that we eliminate nukes entirely as opposed to just reducing them? Krauser was getting his shit jumped for attacking points that nobody was making, not even the article.
His very first post, the first post right after the OP was the following
KrauserKrauser wrote:Here's Obama's thought process on this:

1) Get rid of all the Nukes
2) ???
3) Profit

Change we can believe in!

He's being extermely idealistic to the point of being naive. He's good at making big speeches, I question his ability to actually get anything resembling this accomplished.
Minus the tired change we can believe in mock(It's a good go to but it really is over-used Krauser) his first post is essentially correct.

To quote the first line of the story
President Barack Obama on Sunday said all nations must strive to rid the world of nuclear arms and that the U.S. had a "moral responsibility" to lead because no other country has used one.
It's not a direct quote, but his speech said essetionaly the same thing, we must eliminate nukes and prevent their spread. The second part I can get behind, but the first part IS naive.

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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

Post by General Zod »

Mr Bean wrote: It's not a direct quote, but his speech said essetionaly the same thing, we must eliminate nukes and prevent their spread. The second part I can get behind, but the first part IS naive.
That's my problem with it. Taking a summary and using it as gospel. His full speech, 5 seconds of Googling.
relevant bits wrote:Now, let me describe to you the trajectory we need to be on. First, the United States will take concrete steps towards a world without nuclear weapons. To put an end to Cold War thinking, we will reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy, and urge others to do the same. Make no mistake: As long as these weapons exist, the United States will maintain a safe, secure and effective arsenal to deter any adversary, and guarantee that defense to our allies -- including the Czech Republic. But we will begin the work of reducing our arsenal.

To reduce our warheads and stockpiles, we will negotiate a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with the Russians this year. (Applause.) President Medvedev and I began this process in London, and will seek a new agreement by the end of this year that is legally binding and sufficiently bold. And this will set the stage for further cuts, and we will seek to include all nuclear weapons states in this endeavor.

To achieve a global ban on nuclear testing, my administration will immediately and aggressively pursue U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. (Applause.) After more than five decades of talks, it is time for the testing of nuclear weapons to finally be banned.

And to cut off the building blocks needed for a bomb, the United States will seek a new treaty that verifiably ends the production of fissile materials intended for use in state nuclear weapons. If we are serious about stopping the spread of these weapons, then we should put an end to the dedicated production of weapons-grade materials that create them. That's the first step.

Second, together we will strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a basis for cooperation.

The basic bargain is sound: Countries with nuclear weapons will move towards disarmament, countries without nuclear weapons will not acquire them, and all countries can access peaceful nuclear energy. To strengthen the treaty, we should embrace several principles. We need more resources and authority to strengthen international inspections. We need real and immediate consequences for countries caught breaking the rules or trying to leave the treaty without cause.

And we should build a new framework for civil nuclear cooperation, including an international fuel bank, so that countries can access peaceful power without increasing the risks of proliferation. That must be the right of every nation that renounces nuclear weapons, especially developing countries embarking on peaceful programs. And no approach will succeed if it's based on the denial of rights to nations that play by the rules. We must harness the power of nuclear energy on behalf of our efforts to combat climate change, and to advance peace opportunity for all people.

But we go forward with no illusions. Some countries will break the rules. That's why we need a structure in place that ensures when any nation does, they will face consequences.

Just this morning, we were reminded again of why we need a new and more rigorous approach to address this threat. North Korea broke the rules once again by testing a rocket that could be used for long range missiles. This provocation underscores the need for action -- not just this afternoon at the U.N. Security Council, but in our determination to prevent the spread of these weapons.

Rules must be binding. Violations must be punished. Words must mean something. The world must stand together to prevent the spread of these weapons. Now is the time for a strong international response -- (applause) -- now is the time for a strong international response, and North Korea must know that the path to security and respect will never come through threats and illegal weapons. All nations must come together to build a stronger, global regime. And that's why we must stand shoulder to shoulder to pressure the North Koreans to change course.

Iran has yet to build a nuclear weapon. My administration will seek engagement with Iran based on mutual interests and mutual respect. We believe in dialogue. (Applause.) But in that dialogue we will present a clear choice. We want Iran to take its rightful place in the community of nations, politically and economically. We will support Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy with rigorous inspections. That's a path that the Islamic Republic can take. Or the government can choose increased isolation, international pressure, and a potential nuclear arms race in the region that will increase insecurity for all.

So let me be clear: Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile activity poses a real threat, not just to the United States, but to Iran's neighbors and our allies. The Czech Republic and Poland have been courageous in agreeing to host a defense against these missiles. As long as the threat from Iran persists, we will go forward with a missile defense system that is cost-effective and proven. (Applause.) If the Iranian threat is eliminated, we will have a stronger basis for security, and the driving force for missile defense construction in Europe will be removed. (Applause.)

So, finally, we must ensure that terrorists never acquire a nuclear weapon. This is the most immediate and extreme threat to global security. One terrorist with one nuclear weapon could unleash massive destruction. Al Qaeda has said it seeks a bomb and that it would have no problem with using it. And we know that there is unsecured nuclear material across the globe. To protect our people, we must act with a sense of purpose without delay.

So today I am announcing a new international effort to secure all vulnerable nuclear material around the world within four years. We will set new standards, expand our cooperation with Russia, pursue new partnerships to lock down these sensitive materials.
So there's a stated goal of eventual total disarmament, but the immediate goal is eliminating access to loose nuclear materials. It sounds to me like he fully knows that completely eliminating them is in fact, idealistic and probably not going to happen anytime soon.
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

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Zod wrote:That's my problem with it. Taking a summary and using it as gospel
(Pt 1)Now, let me describe to you the trajectory we need to be on. First, the United States will take concrete steps towards a world without nuclear weapons.

(P2)And to cut off the building blocks needed for a bomb, the United States will seek a new treaty that verifiably ends the production of fissile materials intended for use in state nuclear weapons. If we are serious about stopping the spread of these weapons, then we should put an end to the dedicated production of weapons-grade materials that create them. That's the first step.

(P3) The basic bargain is sound: Countries with nuclear weapons will move towards disarmament, countries without nuclear weapons will not acquire them, and all countries can access peaceful nuclear energy.

-President Obama
It was reported as President Obama wants to get rid of nukes, he phrased it, that he wanted to have a world without nukes, and he spoke on how a program could be created to control nuclear material.

Obama IS calling for no nukes. And your response was essentially a straw man. A strawman with a quote of the speech, but a Strawman non the less.

*Quote me less than twenty minutes ago

It's not a direct quote, but his speech said essentially the same thing, we must eliminate nukes and prevent their spread. The second part I can get behind, but the first part IS naive.[/quote]
*end quote

To which you respond with a quote and...

Zod wrote:So there's a stated goal of eventual total disarmament, but the immediate goal is eliminating access to loose nuclear materials. It sounds to me like he fully knows that completely eliminating them is in fact, idealistic and probably not going to happen anytime soon.

He knows it's idealistic... how does that counter my point in any way that to seek a global elimination of all nuclear weapons is... foolish? Because it is, it is foolish to assume that we can at this point short of world government eliminate all nuclear weapons and expect that happy state of affairs to continue for more than a few years. Nuclear weapons are the great "leave me alone" card for third world regimes. Once you have nukes, they can't threaten you anymore. Once they have nukes you can't be invaded. True you might get nuked instead but lets face it, we(the 1st world) have spent the last few hundred years have spent considerable time and resources on imposing our will on 3rd world countries. Face it, less that fifty years ago we were still in the "Imperialism fuck yeah!" stage when we(1st world) took what we wanted from 3rd worlds and revealed in it. Less than a 100 years since the British Empire was an Empire in more than name, and now Nukes are seen as a sure-fire "leave us the hell alone" card.

Which is why every country that can wants them. If you have nukes ready to go, then the US, the EU, Russia and China will be a lot less eager to mess around with your country.

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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

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Oh for fuck's sake Bean, saying "we want to live in a world free of nuclear weapons" is like saying "we want to live in a world without war". It's a lofty statement of ideals, not something you're going to seriously make a realistic plan to achieve.

PS. Krauser was getting shot down for saying that the easiest solution to Iran's nukes is to simply "stop" them. I don't know where you got the idea that it's all about his disbelief in the realism of a totally nuke-free world.
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

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Darth Wong wrote:Oh for fuck's sake Bean, saying "we want to live in a world free of nuclear weapons" is like saying "we want to live in a world without war". It's a lofty statement of ideals, not something you're going to seriously make a realistic plan to achieve.
Re-read Obama's stated goal. What he purposes is the outlines of a plan for a nuclear weapon free world. It's more than a lofty statement of ideals, he spent a good deal of his speech outline exactly how he purposed to get to a nuclear free world.

1. Clamp down on the spread of nuclear weapon making information and target the sources of lose nukes(All well and good)
2. Stop production of all weapons grade materials, set up fine/punishment system
3. Establish an international bank for nuclear material for all nations to pursue civilian nuclear power and prevent weapons grade production.
4. Reduce stockpiles of weapons. With 2 this will lead to nukes that are increasing more and more likely to fizzle instead of initiating correctly
5. Reduction of stockpiles + no more weapons grade material means eventual nuclear free world unless someone cheats and holds back some nuclear material. Which depending on how effective step 3 is could be impossible.

He set out everything he needed to do to achieve his goal minus the fact that the non-participation of any nuclear nation would simply leave one nuclear armed stated and lots of non-nuclear armed ones.

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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

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Mr Bean wrote:
Darth Wong wrote:Oh for fuck's sake Bean, saying "we want to live in a world free of nuclear weapons" is like saying "we want to live in a world without war". It's a lofty statement of ideals, not something you're going to seriously make a realistic plan to achieve.
Re-read Obama's stated goal.
:roll: That is the boilerplate on every nuclear arms reduction effort over the last 30 years. Did you even read what you were responding to?
Mr Bean wrote:He set out everything he needed to do to achieve his goal minus the fact that the non-participation of any nuclear nation would simply leave one nuclear armed stated and lots of non-nuclear armed ones.
If you actually think that plan would realistically lead to nuke-free world, you're on drugs. It might, at best, lead to arms reductions and a limitation of proliferation.
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

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Mr Bean wrote:Which is why every country that can wants them. If you have nukes ready to go, then the US, the EU, Russia and China will be a lot less eager to mess around with your country.
Which is exactly why none of these countries are bothering Iran, or North Korea, right?
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

Post by Crayz9000 »

The biggest issue with anything nuclear is that the barn door's already wide open. However, nuclear weapons, while somewhat scary, are still in essence conventional. You still have to use a conventional transport mechanism to deliver said warhead. This limits their use to powers that can afford the development program and cost of delivery systems. A country like North Korea is only a threat to very few people with nuclear weapons; they could perhaps hit two or three cities, after which the country would cease to exist. Eliminating ICBMs instead of nuclear weapons is a far more laudable goal.

Bioweapons, on the other hand, can be delivered by anybody, on any side. All it takes is one person to become infected and shake hands with, or sneeze on, someone else to spread. With that kind of capability, a country like North Korea could become a threat to the entire world.
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

Post by phongn »

Ziggy Stardust wrote:
Mr Bean wrote:Which is why every country that can wants them. If you have nukes ready to go, then the US, the EU, Russia and China will be a lot less eager to mess around with your country.
Which is exactly why none of these countries are bothering Iran, or North Korea, right?
What Iranian nukes? And do note that everyone treads carefully around the DPRK, not the least because of its non-nuclear deterrent (read: the hundreds of artillery pieces in range of Seoul and its horde of ballistic missiles in range of South Korea and Japan).
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

Post by Ziggy Stardust »

phongn wrote:What Iranian nukes? And do note that everyone treads carefully around the DPRK, not the least because of its non-nuclear deterrent (read: the hundreds of artillery pieces in range of Seoul and its horde of ballistic missiles in range of South Korea and Japan).
You're missing my point. Both countries are under intense international scrutiny, pressure, and sanctions just on the suspicion that they want nuclear weapons. I am merely contesting the idea that third world countries having nukes gives them license to do whatever they want without the West intervening, which was Mr. Bean's implication.
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

Post by Axis Kast »

Obama will be capable of negotiating a reduction in nuclear armaments, but little more.

His program will never reach tunnel’s end. Who can quantify, precisely, what level of surety will be required before we dismantle our last nuclear warhead? No one.

The Russians will, in the end, retain their nuclear weapons. So will the Chinese. They simply “make sense” as a measure of Great Power status, and the ultimate proof against what dangers may come. The Pakistanis and Indians will keep their nukes. Israel will maintain its own arsenal. Britain and France may make drastic cuts, but the latter, at least, have face invested in the preservation of an independent deterrent. Iran and North Korea are unlikely to go along with Obama’s program: neither have anything to gain by gambling, considering what they’ve paid to get this far.

There are certain levers that can be used against the Iranians, but we are unlikely to apply the kind of sticks that will change their calculations from pursuit to retreat.

As regards our own arsenal, I think it unwise to cease research into new and superior weaponry.
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

Post by Kanastrous »

Darth Wong wrote:
Solauren wrote:Sorry Obama, we need nukes.

And not for use on each other.

We need them if we are going to have a chance in hell of stopping a large incoming piece of space debris.
You don't seriously think they can just retarget an ICBM to deflect an incoming asteroid, do you? There's no reason why a pre-existing ICBM arsenal would help us deflect an incoming asteroid. An asteroid deflection arsenal would have to be purpose-built and designed.
Would we save anything by extracting the present warheads from their strategic carriers and installing them in anti-asteroid vehicles? Or would we need to engineer different new warheads for asteroid-deflection purposes?
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Re: Obama seeks to disarm world's nukes

Post by K. A. Pital »

I'm with Axis. This is a statement of ideals, sure, but these ideals do not make sense. They hardly have a shred of realism about them.

Sure, people may point out that Krauser and Axis are right-wingers. That is not the issue here. Bean's assessment of Obama's proposal was correct.

Also - yes, it's basically a lot of talk sort of like the previous arms reduction treaties between US and USSR. Difference? US and USSR never actually considered abolition of nuclear arsenals; and it was a game of wit and competition more than a real goal of "no nuclear weapons" - both nations looked at unsettling technologies in the other's inventory, like effective tactical SRBMs, bomber-launched ALCMs and so forth, declared them "off-hands" and tried to trade the loss of ability X for the adversary losing ability Y.

This program is nothing like that. There's no one to play with. Nobody will be playing. It's boring now. What can the US give in exchange for someone not keeping nuclear materials? Abolish Anti-Ballistic Missile Defense shield - the only really unsettling technology against ICBMs and SLBMs? Yeah, it can. One time in a century. Then we can see how many people would agree to abolish their nuclear weapons or reduce arsenals in exchange for that. I think the number would be zero or close to that.

Nuclear weapons are not a usual weapon - they haven't killed a single person since 1945, but probably prevented more deaths than all other weapons in the world combined. The idea of handicapping them only works as a chess match between two great powers. If the players are not interested in the match, the call will be left un-answered and all powers will just carry on with their business.
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