Major Exoplanet discoveries

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Zor
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Major Exoplanet discoveries

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One Exoplanet found comprable to earth in size and another in the life belt
HATFIELD, England – In the search for Earth-like planets, astronomers zeroed in Tuesday on two places that look awfully familiar to home. One is close to the right size. The other is in the right place. European researchers said they not only found the smallest exoplanet ever, called Gliese 581 e, but realized that a neighboring planet discovered earlier, Gliese 581 d, was in the prime habitable zone for potential life.

"The Holy Grail of current exoplanet research is the detection of a rocky, Earth-like planet in the 'habitable zone,'" said Michel Mayor, an astrophysicist at Geneva University in Switzerland.

An American expert called the discovery of the tiny planet "extraordinary."

Gliese 581 e is only 1.9 times the size of Earth — while previous planets found outside our solar system are closer to the size of massive Jupiter, which NASA says could swallow more than 1,000 Earths.

Gliese 581 e sits close to the nearest star, making it too hot to support life. Still, Mayor said its discovery in a solar system 20 1/2 light years away from Earth is a "good example that we are progressing in the detection of Earth-like planets."

Scientists also discovered that the orbit of planet Gliese 581 d, which was found in 2007, was located within the "habitable zone" — a region around a sun-like star that would allow water to be liquid on the planet's surface, Mayor said.

He spoke at a news conference Tuesday at the University of Hertfordshire during the European Week of Astronomy and Space Science.

Gliese 581 d is probably too large to be made only of rocky material, fellow astronomer and team member Stephane Udry said, adding it was possible the planet had a "large and deep" ocean.

"It is the first serious 'water-world' candidate," Udry said.

Mayor's main planet-hunting competitor, Geoff Marcy of the University of California, Berkeley, praised the find of Gliese 581 e as "the most exciting discovery" so far of exoplanets — planets outside our solar system.

"This discovery is absolutely extraordinary," Marcy told The Associated Press by e-mail, calling the discoveries a significant step in the search for Earth-like planets.

While Gliese 581 e is too hot for life "it shows that nature makes such small planets, probably in large numbers," Marcy commented. "Surely the galaxy contains tens of billions of planets like the small, Earth-mass one announced here."

Nearly 350 planets have been found outside our solar system, but so far nearly every one of them was found to be extremely unlikely to harbor life.

Most were too close or too far from their sun, making them too hot or too cold for life. Others were too big and likely to be uninhabitable gas giants like Jupiter. Those that are too small are highly difficult to detect in the first place.

Both Gliese 581 d and Gliese 581 e are located in constellation Libra and orbit around Gliese 581.

Like other planets circling that star — scientists have discovered four so far — Gliese 581 e was found using the European Southern Observatory's telescope in La Silla, Chile.

The telescope has a special instrument which splits light to find wobbles in different wavelengths. Those wobbles can reveal the existence of other worlds.

"It is great work and shows the potential of this detection method," said Lisa Kaltenegger, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
Quite a discovery, Hopefully we will be able to detect more earth sized planets and be able to detect more rockey extrasolar planets

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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

Post by Tolya »

This is great news indeed.

We have only discovered around 350 planets outside Sol and we stumbled upon a potential candidate for a habitable-zone world.

Imagine what we could do in the coming years, as new technology is introduced.
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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I recall that there is a replacement telescope for the Hubble called Kepler (I think). And I also recall that it is optimized for exoplanet discovery, although I might be wrong. Going off my shoddy memory.

Anyway, if that is true, then we might be seeing even more prime exoplanet discoveries over the next few years.
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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Prannon wrote:I recall that there is a replacement telescope for the Hubble called Kepler (I think). And I also recall that it is optimized for exoplanet discovery, although I might be wrong. Going off my shoddy memory.
Actually, no, the Kepler is a system designed primarily to look for possible Earth-like planets orbiting other stars. Hubble basically just covers as much of the sky as it can. Saying that the Kepler is slated to replace Hubble isn't really correct since they essentially have differing mission profiles. Besides, from what I recall, NASA isn't retiring Hubble any time soon. They'll apparently keep it up there in working order until it finally goes kaput.
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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Prannon wrote:I recall that there is a replacement telescope for the Hubble called Kepler (I think). And I also recall that it is optimized for exoplanet discovery, although I might be wrong. Going off my shoddy memory.

Anyway, if that is true, then we might be seeing even more prime exoplanet discoveries over the next few years.
Kepler is a purpose-built planet-hunting mission, and has nothing to do with Hubble whatsoever. Though given that we've spotted a truly terrestrial-mass planet at close distance to a red dwarf . . . this suggests that the first habitable Earth-sized planet may, in fact, be found with an Earth-based observation program, using present techniques. Pretty cool, that.
Ilya Muromets wrote:Besides, from what I recall, NASA isn't retiring Hubble any time soon. They'll apparently keep it up there in working order until it finally goes kaput.
Not quite. The final Hubble servicing/repair mission goes up next month, and is designed to keep the observatory operational through 2014. However, one of the things they're installing is a docking port to attach a rocket motor (to be launched in the future) so they can de-orbit it.
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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So, that makes four planets around Gliese 581. It definitely should be one of our first targets upon getting Kepler up and running; I'm curious as to how many planets are actually in the system.
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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I'm just a biochemist, but it would seem to me in order for our solar system to be something unique (Earth-ish planets included), than it would follow that the formation of our solar system would have to be something out of the ordinary. The most physics I've ever taken was the year of calc based physics for scientists and engineers, a year of physical chemistry (in third quarter of that), and a quarter of astronomy, so there could be incredible factual errors in what I just said, but it makes sense to me.

Life, from the perspective of someone studying biochemistry, could be all over the place in one form or another, but intelligent life is something I'm not sold on. However, we have seen that on Earth, the laws of evolution clearly indicate the presence of convergence, where life on lots of different branches of the evolutionary tree converged (the eye, for example). It is probable that if life (that replicates with errors) exists on a planet somewhat like our own, that evolution could push them toward intelligence. Perhaps they don't figure out technology (like the other great apes, cephalopods, dolphins, dogs, etc), but it is advantageous to be smarter than your prey or those that seek to predate you.
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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Count Dooku wrote:I'm just a biochemist, but it would seem to me in order for our solar system to be something unique (Earth-ish planets included), than it would follow that the formation of our solar system would have to be something out of the ordinary. The most physics I've ever taken was the year of calc based physics for scientists and engineers, a year of physical chemistry (in third quarter of that), and a quarter of astronomy, so there could be incredible factual errors in what I just said, but it makes sense to me.

Life, from the perspective of someone studying biochemistry, could be all over the place in one form or another, but intelligent life is something I'm not sold on. However, we have seen that on Earth, the laws of evolution clearly indicate the presence of convergence, where life on lots of different branches of the evolutionary tree converged (the eye, for example). It is probable that if life (that replicates with errors) exists on a planet somewhat like our own, that evolution could push them toward intelligence. Perhaps they don't figure out technology (like the other great apes, cephalopods, dolphins, dogs, etc), but it is advantageous to be smarter than your prey or those that seek to predate you.
Yeah, but it's a big jump from the other great apes, cephalopods, dolphins, dogs, etc., to humans. Being smart has its costs; the human brain is ridiculously expensive to operate, causes serious problems with childbirth, and requires extremely long childhoods to fully develop. If you assume endothermy is metabolically necessary for sapience, sapeince could have evolved anytime in the last two hundred million years, and yet it didn't until very recently. The therapod dinosaurs never made the jump and they were social, big-brained upright walkers with manipulating hands! It seems like it should have been trivial for the positive feedback loop to get started with them, but it never did, despite having most of the Mesozoic in which to do so.

I suspect this might be the answer to the Fermi paradox. We know now that planets are common, and the signs are pointing towards Earth-sized planets and planets in the goldilocks zone being reasonably common, and we know the universe is slam-full of the chemicals for life. Life should be common, but the galaxy is silent and apparently empty. It could be that human-like intelligence is a major bottleneck that just not that many species ever achieve.
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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RedImperator wrote:Yeah, but it's a big jump from the other great apes, cephalopods, dolphins, dogs, etc., to humans. Being smart has its costs; the human brain is ridiculously expensive to operate, causes serious problems with childbirth, and requires extremely long childhoods to fully develop. If you assume endothermy is metabolically necessary for sapience, sapeince could have evolved anytime in the last two hundred million years, and yet it didn't until very recently. The therapod dinosaurs never made the jump and they were social, big-brained upright walkers with manipulating hands! It seems like it should have been trivial for the positive feedback loop to get started with them, but it never did, despite having most of the Mesozoic in which to do so.

I suspect this might be the answer to the Fermi paradox. We know now that planets are common, and the signs are pointing towards Earth-sized planets and planets in the goldilocks zone being reasonably common, and we know the universe is slam-full of the chemicals for life. Life should be common, but the galaxy is silent and apparently empty. It could be that human-like intelligence is a major bottleneck that just not that many species ever achieve.
While I agree with that, I have to wonder just how well "communication" signals would carry in the universe before they were drowned out, even if they did coincide with the relatively short time we've had the technology to communicate off our own planet reliably. With the supremely weird shit in the sky like the Great Attractor, I have to wonder what else the vacuum can throw out there when it comes to distortion and weirdness that might fuck up any long-distance signals. I suspect stuff like SETI is just futile.
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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Rye wrote:
RedImperator wrote:Yeah, but it's a big jump from the other great apes, cephalopods, dolphins, dogs, etc., to humans. Being smart has its costs; the human brain is ridiculously expensive to operate, causes serious problems with childbirth, and requires extremely long childhoods to fully develop. If you assume endothermy is metabolically necessary for sapience, sapeince could have evolved anytime in the last two hundred million years, and yet it didn't until very recently. The therapod dinosaurs never made the jump and they were social, big-brained upright walkers with manipulating hands! It seems like it should have been trivial for the positive feedback loop to get started with them, but it never did, despite having most of the Mesozoic in which to do so.

I suspect this might be the answer to the Fermi paradox. We know now that planets are common, and the signs are pointing towards Earth-sized planets and planets in the goldilocks zone being reasonably common, and we know the universe is slam-full of the chemicals for life. Life should be common, but the galaxy is silent and apparently empty. It could be that human-like intelligence is a major bottleneck that just not that many species ever achieve.
While I agree with that, I have to wonder just how well "communication" signals would carry in the universe before they were drowned out, even if they did coincide with the relatively short time we've had the technology to communicate off our own planet reliably. With the supremely weird shit in the sky like the Great Attractor, I have to wonder what else the vacuum can throw out there when it comes to distortion and weirdness that might fuck up any long-distance signals. I suspect stuff like SETI is just futile.
The thing about the Fermi paradox is, the paradox doesn't say, "Why don't we hear them?" It says "Why aren't there here?" Even with the lightspeed barrier, an advanced civilization could expand across the entire galaxy in less than a million years. The oldest population I stars (the ones most likely to have planets) are ~6 or 7 billion years old. If you assume that Earth's development was typical and it takes four billion years to get from planet formation to multicellular life, and toss in another billion to get from there to intelligent life (it only took 500 million years here), the galaxy has had two billion years to produce an expansionist civilization. Even if you assume the early pop I's aren't metallic enough and you need to go to the intermediate age pop I's (like the sun), there's still multiple hundreds of millions of years where the galaxy could have produced an expansionist civilization before we showed up. Even if 99% of civilizations stall, die out, or never leave their home solar systems, it would only take one to overrun the entire galaxy.

So where are they? I suppose you could take the position that civilizations are common but expansionist civilizations are not (I have my doubts ours will ever become one), but you still need every single one to stay home. The problem isn't being unable to communicate, it's not having anyone to communicate with. I hate to say it, but I think the galaxy is empty except for us. If it is full of intelligent life, that life is probably stuck in one bottleneck or another; trapped in the stone age, or economically exhausted before they could establish a permanent presence in space, or simply not physiologically suited to tool use (ocean-dwellers, for example), or something like that. If they're out there, we're going to have to go to them.
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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I think rather that there may well be other civilisations but that they do not leave their own solar system unless mass migration becomes a necessity. A civilisation expands for three reasons: living space, more material resources, and sources of energy. But a typical solar system can provide all that for an orbital civilisation for hundreds of millions of years or longer, if the natives have actually learned to customise their home sun to extend it's life cycle. There is no reason to go galavanting off into galactic space to conquer yourself a huge empire, no way to do so in practical terms, and no material benefit greater than what you've already got around your own star. Therefore, it makes sense that there would not be a general galactic communication network and therefore again, no sign of advanced civilisation that we could detect with our available instrumentation.

In short, if the above is true, then it's pretty much a given that everybody in the galaxy is alone.
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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Has anyone read "Probability 1" by Amir Aczel?
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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Intio wrote:Has anyone read "Probability 1" by Amir Aczel?
No; could you give a hint about it?

(Note for the future: generally, in SLAM, the mods want you to post more than this; something like, "Has anybody read about X? The author talks about concepts A, B, and C, there". You can use spoiler tags if you don't want to give away plot points. Just some friendly advice from a former mod).
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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Thanks for the advice. I actually meant to include some info, and I've now looked out my old copy.

It's been a while since I read it but essentially the author details, and fleshes out, Drake's equation for calculating the probability of life elsewhere.

A lot of Drake's equation is based on conjecture, and so I believe the author (or was he referring to others?) biases the conjecture against there being life elsewhere. Nonetheless, the chances for some kind of life being somewhere in our galaxy turns out to be 0.9999999 etc., as close to probability 1 as we can reasonably get.

I really ought to read it again, because I can't remember if he was taling about any form of life, or intelligent life. Flicking through the book, he does deal with intelligent life emerging on our planet, just not sure if he applies this to all planets.
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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If it is full of intelligent life, that life is probably stuck in one bottleneck or another; trapped in the stone age, or economically exhausted before they could establish a permanent presence in space, or simply not physiologically suited to tool use (ocean-dwellers, for example), or something like that. If they're out there, we're going to have to go to them.
This strikes me as one of the more likelier possibilities, if you're assuming that life is relatively common and there's been billions of years for complex life to develop. There are literally countless different possibilities for technological development for intelligent life that don't lead to space travel and/or radio communication. Off the top of my head -

1. Ocean-going intelligent life with no access to fire (hell, they could have basic tools, and yet without fire they're not getting anywhere near rockets);

2. Intelligent life that never really gets into sedentary congregations large enough to really develop complex divisions-of-labor (or the alien equivalent) for biological/social reasons (maybe they're carnivores who travel in small family groups);

3. Intelligent life lacking some type of sensory perception that inhibits advanced technological development and space travel (what if, for example, they have no equivalent to eyesight - I'm including things like echolocation here - and get around by sense of smell only).

4. Intelligent life that doesn't suffer from the above, but ends up stuck in the stone age for climatological/environmental reasons (humanity spent most of its existence as hunter-gathers, although there is evidence of technological advancement over the tens of thousands of years).

5. Technological paths that don't lead to space travel. What if the civilization, for example, ends up in a permanent agrarian state?
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Re: Major Exoplanet discoveries

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Patrick Degan wrote:I think rather that there may well be other civilisations but that they do not leave their own solar system unless mass migration becomes a necessity. A civilisation expands for three reasons: living space, more material resources, and sources of energy. But a typical solar system can provide all that for an orbital civilisation for hundreds of millions of years or longer, if the natives have actually learned to customise their home sun to extend it's life cycle. There is no reason to go galavanting off into galactic space to conquer yourself a huge empire, no way to do so in practical terms, and no material benefit greater than what you've already got around your own star. Therefore, it makes sense that there would not be a general galactic communication network and therefore again, no sign of advanced civilisation that we could detect with our available instrumentation.

In short, if the above is true, then it's pretty much a given that everybody in the galaxy is alone.
Doing some BOTE calculating, if we assumed a civilization created a Dyson Swarm at 1 AU, and devoted it to nothing but housing people, and the population density of that civilization was that of the modern city Mumbai, India, then you have a theoretical maximum population of 8.5x1021 inhabitants. Large number, but the easy part is filling our Dyson swarm with people. A population growth rate of 1% for ~2800 years will result in our Dyson swarm being packed with people. A population growth rate of 0.1% extends this to ~27,900 years, but for a civilization capable of building a Dyson swarm, either one of these is essentially trivial time. Even a population growth rate of 1/1000th of 1% requires a mere 2.8 million years to fill the Dyson swarm. The limiting factor will become one of how fast can a civilization construct living space.

A civilization might mitigate this if it's the sort that's capable of carpeting its system with so-called "computronium," as the space requirements for the collection of bytes representing a citizen is presumably lower than the space requirements of aforementioned citizen + required life-support infrastructure. Though, as not everybody will wish to become fully uploaded, or transplant into a low-maintenance synthetic body, you will still bump up against very real space restrictions at some point in a civilization's history.

Therefore, if a civilization exists long enough, it may consider the insane cost of founding interstellar colonies to be worth it. This will be undertaken more on the desire to increase a given civilization's redundancy, rather than relieve crowding, since you cannot possibly hope to dispatch anywhere near enough people to make an appreciable dent in a system population which may be in excess of billions of trillions of people. So we might assume that expansion, if it exists, is very slow. Say 1/1000th of 1 light-year per year, which is a snail-like pace, since it assumes that a given civilization is dispatching ships capable of going 1% the speed of light every 100,000 years or so. Even at this sluggish pace, a single civilization ought to fill the entire ~8 trillion cubic light-year volume of the galaxy in just twenty million years. Taking the low figure from the first paragraph, this is merely seven times longer than the time it took to fill the civilization's home system.

And my numbers are probably excessively pessimistic. Although a civilization capable of existing for millions of years could probably produce a tightly-knit interstellar empire restricted to special relativity, the individual systems of this civilization may have sufficient biological and cultural differences that each one will decide that their particular example of civilization is worth backing up to other systems, and may do this more than once, as group-think drifts in and out of alignment with the notion of establishing colonies. So even one civilization that is even casually interested in expansion ought to fill the galaxy, provided it's got a few tens of millions of years. Once you get to the point where you're thinking about this sort of expansion, there's virtually nothing natural that can kill you, so if it can do it, it has the time to do it in.

This would tend to indicate that the solution to Fermi's Paradox is simply that no civilized species has ever survived to become a Type II civilization. Since it's harder to kill a species transitioning from a Type I to a Type II civilization (presumably the act of achieving Type I and expanding towards Type II ought to give a system enough population to render it unkillable by stupidity, and unkillable by anything short of a direct GRB-intensity blast,) than it is to kill a species struggling to reach Type I in the first place, we can guess that virtually no species has made it to Type I, with the survivors not making it to the threshold of functional invincibility. Naturally, this is all predicated on the assumption that to even think of interstellar colonization, a civilization absolutely needs to have the energy production and utilization capabilities of a Type II.
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