Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

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Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by Akkleptos »

A mutant strain of swine influenza has killed dozens in Mexico, many of them healthy adults aged between 25 and 45. Official announcement from the Federal Health Secretary says it is a new kind of influenza. All schools, nurseries, universities (both public and private) ordered closed in Mexico City and neighbouring Mexico State (pop. over 20 million).

Did a search and couldn't find anything about this on the board.
From here:
Time.com wrote:Fernando Navarette fingers his blue mouth mask and eyes other customers suspiciously at the juice stand as he orders a special anti-flu cocktail of pineapple, guava and honey. "I want to get the vitamins in me and then get back home," says the 37-year-old graphic designer, carefully keeping his distance. "I don't want to be in the street any longer than necessary and risk bringing the virus into my house. I have young children to worry about."

Fears of getting a killer bug are sweeping across the Mexican capital as reports erupted about an epidemic of swine influenza that is said to have killed dozens in recent weeks. The government ordered all schools and universities in Mexico City shut and advised people to pull their children out of nurseries and avoid busy places such as restaurants, bars and cinemas. Pharmacies rapidly sold out of hygienic masks and vitamin supplements. Many clinics stuck signs on their doors advising they had run out of influenza vaccines. (See pictures from the last outbreak of bird flu.)

News of the flu had been lingering for several days but surged to national attention late Thursday after a televised announcement from Federal Health Minister José Angel Córdova. "With the information obtained this afternoon, we have before us the threat of a new type of influenza," Cordova said, announcing the first total school closures over the urban area of 20 million since the 1985 earthquake. Mexican authorities said there had been 20 deaths confirmed from the virus in recent weeks, mostly healthy adult men and women, who were in groups not normally considered vulnerable. Then panic increased to fever pitch on Friday when the World Health Organization upstaged the Mexican government by saying that 60 deaths may have been caused by the virus. (Check out a story on how long flu immunity lasts.)

Sources concurred that the virus originated from pigs and mutated into some form that jumped to humans. That raised the terrifying prospect that humans could be completely unresistant to it, potentially leading to a pandemic. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 to 1919 killed about 50 million people. The most recent pandemic was the Hong Kong flu that killed about 1 million people from 1968 to 1969. "We are very, very concerned," WHO spokesman Thomas Abraham said, according the AP. "We have what appears to be a novel virus and it has spread from human to human." WHO convened an emergency meeting on Friday and activated money and personnel to dealing with the outbreak. "It's all hands on deck at the moment." Abraham said. (Read a story about the fear of bird flu.)

Mexican President Felipe Calderón cancelled a trip to the northern state of Chihuahua and called his cabinet ministers, state health chiefs and even senior military commanders to an emergency meeting on Friday. The Mexico City government initially had about 400,000 doses of vaccine left after the influenza season, which normally lasts from December to March. However, these were being used exclusively for medical personnel across the nation's hospitals, where hundreds of people with flu symptoms were being treated. The Mexican federal government was also reported to be handing out a million flu vaccines to the public. But it was still unclear if the vaccines would be effective against this new strain.

It was also unclear how much the virus had spread outside of Mexico. At least seven non-lethal cases of a swine virus had been reported in Texas and California (the U.S. cases seem to be susceptible to antiviral treatment; and, in a hopeful note for Mexicans, preliminary tests show 14 samples from Mexico to be identical to the American strain). Canadian officials have also found the swine virus in one tourist returning from Mexico. A Canadian travel advisory Thursday held back from telling people not to go to Mexico but advised Canadians to get flu shots and warned which Mexican states the virus had been detected in, which include Mexico City, Mexico State, Hidalgo, San Luis Potosí and Oaxaca.

Despite some panic buying, there are no immediate signs of anyone fleeing Mexico City. Shop owner Humberto Garcia says that he is not worried about getting the virus himself. "I'm strong, I'll resist it," he says, flexing his arm muscles. Architect Maria Aguilera, 31, is also unmoved. "People are just freaking out a bit," she says. However, government worker Victor Mondragon, 45, says he may vacate the city in the next few days. "I want to see how bad this thing is," he says. "If thousands start dropping dead, then I am going to run for my life."
It looks quite alarming, indeed. My thoughts at first were:

1. For once, the government is responding swiftly and effectively to a potential health threat to the population.
2. Or... maybe the situation is quite worse than they're letting on, and that's why they're going to such lengths all of a sudden?

I asked around, and some dismissed this as a political media distraction since elections are coming. But the more I read, the more unsettling it gets.

Here's the CDC's take on the matter:
April 24, 2009

Human cases of swine influenza A (H1N1) virus infection have been identified in the U.S. in San Diego County and Imperial County, California as well as in San Antonio, Texas. Internationally, human cases of swine influenza A (H1N1) virus infection have been identified in Mexico.
U.S. Human Cases of Swine Flu Infection
State # of laboratory confirmed cases
California 6 cases
Texas 2 cases
International Human Cases of Swine Flu Infection
Country # of laboratory confirmed cases
Mexico 7 cases
Cases will be updated daily at 3 p.m. EST
NOTE: Only international human cases confirmed by CDC laboratories will be reported

Investigations are ongoing to determine the source of the infection and whether additional people have been infected with similar swine influenza viruses.

CDC is working very closely with state and local officials in California, Texas, as well as with health officials in Mexico, Canada and the World Health Organization.
So it's there already as well...

Time to stock up in water and canned goods and make for the mountains?
I hope not.
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by Akkleptos »

Addendum: World Health Organisation's report.
WHO wrote:Influenza-Like Illness in the United States and Mexico

24 April 2009 -- The United States Government has reported seven confirmed human cases of Swine Influenza A/H1N1 in the USA (five in California and two in Texas) and nine suspect cases. All seven confirmed cases had mild Influenza-Like Illness (ILI), with only one requiring brief hospitalization. No deaths have been reported.

The Government of Mexico has reported three separate events. In the Federal District of Mexico, surveillance began picking up cases of ILI starting 18 March. The number of cases has risen steadily through April and as of 23 April there are now more than 854 cases of pneumonia from the capital. Of those, 59 have died. In San Luis Potosi, in central Mexico, 24 cases of ILI, with three deaths, have been reported. And from Mexicali, near the border with the United States, four cases of ILI, with no deaths, have been reported.

Of the Mexican cases, 18 have been laboratory confirmed in Canada as Swine Influenza A/H1N1, while 12 of those are genetically identical to the Swine Influenza A/H1N1 viruses from California.

The majority of these cases have occurred in otherwise healthy young adults. Influenza normally affects the very young and the very old, but these age groups have not been heavily affected in Mexico.

Because there are human cases associated with an animal influenza virus, and because of the geographical spread of multiple community outbreaks, plus the somewhat unusual age groups affected, these events are of high concern.

The Swine Influenza A/H1N1 viruses characterized in this outbreak have not been previously detected in pigs or humans. The viruses so far characterized have been sensitive to oseltamivir, but resistant to both amantadine and rimantadine.

The World Health Organization has been in constant contact with the health authorities in the United States, Mexico and Canada in order to better understand the risk which these ILI events pose. WHO (and PAHO) is sending missions of experts to Mexico to work with health authorities there. It is helping its Member States to increase field epidemiology activities, laboratory diagnosis and clinical management. Moreover, WHO's partners in the Global Alert and Response Network have been alerted and are ready to assist as requested by the Member States.

WHO acknowledges the United States and Mexico for their proactive reporting and their collaboration with WHO and will continue to work with Member States to further characterize the outbreak.
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by Flagg »

My time has come!*

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This is some scary shit. Aren't humans and pigs remarkably similar biologically?
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by Chardok »

the scariest part is the M&M report - the most affected populations are the ones who would normally survive - healthy adults and young adults. my mom (Who works for Duval county health dept. in florida - sent me warnings on this before it was even on the news. There have been two confirmed cases right here in San Antonio - and it's FIESTA here, so we've got visitors from Mexico swarming all over the place, out in public, touching things, touchingeach other, touching other people, etc. etc. etc.. I can see this getting very bad very quickly.
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by Alyrium Denryle »

Flagg wrote:My time has come!*

*Obligatory 'The Stand' reference.


This is some scary shit. Aren't humans and pigs remarkably similar biologically?
Yes. Yes we are. I am going to head to CVS and grab some latex gloves...
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by Broomstick »

The Spanish Flu of the early 20th Century had the skewed kill profile of mostly young/healthy adults because, it is believed, it triggered an immune cascade and that is what killed many victims. Basically, the immune system over-reacts and kills the body. Those with a strong immune system are more likely to have a fatal reaction. Those with a weak one will not have such a strong reaction and, paradoxically, more likely to survive (though they can still die from other flu effects and things like pneumonia).

Given that my immune system tends to be hyperactive anyway that's sort of the last type of virus I'd want to pick up. To add insult to injury, I'm also allergic to flu vaccine.

>sigh<

Well, I suppose the bright side to all this is that I no longer work in downtown Chicago or take mass transit, which may help me avoid a major pandemic should it reach this far.

Better yet - let's all hope this is a local phenomena that soon disappears on its own.
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by Mayabird »

Another hypothesis about the deadliness of the Spanish flu was that it was killing people who were asymptomatic carriers of tuberculosis, since the number of cases of TB dropped dramatically immediately afterward and didn't reach their previous levels of infection for another two decades. Of course, with fifty million people dying, it could've had both effects.

On the bright side, the flu seemed to respond well to the antivirals that the Americans received, so we might have a partial treatment if people get infected. On the negative side, with all the international travel (even after the reductions from the world economy going down the shitter) it can spread quickly and easily all over the world.

Also note that there are levels of epidemics between nothing and "OMG WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!" Between the Spanish flu pandemic and now, there was the Asian flu epidemic of 1956-1958 (1-4 million deaths) and the Hong Kong flu epidemic of 1968-1969 which was less severe. So while preparations are always good, don't panic. Panic just makes it worse.
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by Korvan »

If this new strain can also cause an immune cascade effect, I wonder if it would make any sense to try to lower one's immune system a bit. Basically just ignore all the advice my mom has given me over the years. Get less sleep, eat a bit less regular, stress out a bit more, get your feet wet, sit on cold concrete (or is that last one for hemorrhoids?).
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by loomer »

This is a bad time to have a nasty flu of my own. Reading this? 'OH CRAP OH CRAP OH CRAP' illogical alarm bells went right off.
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by Akkleptos »

Update on it. There are no vaccines, as this is a new strain. On a nicer note, the Mexican Health Secretary has enough antiviral medicine to go around at least for now:
The Canadian Press, through Google News wrote:Mexico swine flu deaths spur closure of schools, museums, libraries

2 hours ago (as of 10:40 pm Central)

MEXICO CITY — A unique strain of swine flu is the suspected killer of dozens of people in Mexico, where authorities closed schools, museums, libraries and theatres in the capital on Friday to try to contain an outbreak that has spurred concerns of a global flu epidemic.

The worrisome new virus - which combines genetic material from pigs, birds and humans in a way researchers have not seen before - has also sickened at least eight people in Texas and California.

The outbreak caused alarm in Mexico, where more than 1,000 people have been sickened. Residents of the capital donned surgical masks and authorities ordered the most sweeping shutdown of public gathering places in a quarter century. President Felipe Calderon met with his cabinet Friday to co-ordinate Mexico's response.

Authorities in Mexico urged people to avoid hospitals unless they had a medical emergency, since hospitals are centers of infection. They also said Mexicans should refrain from customary greetings such as shaking hands or kissing cheeks. At Mexico City's international airport, passengers were questioned to try to prevent anyone with flu symptoms from boarding airplanes and spreading the disease.

In Mexico City, "literally hundreds and thousands of travellers come in and out every day," said Dr. Michael Osterholm at the University of Minnesota.

"You'd have to believe there's been more unrecognized transmission that's occurred."

Epidemiologists are particularly concerned because the only fatalities so far were in young people and adults.

Mexico's Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordoba said 68 people have died of flu and the new swine flu strain had been confirmed in 20 of those deaths. At least 1,004 people nationwide were sick from the suspected flu, he said.

The geographical spread of the outbreaks also concerned the WHO - while 13 of the 20 deaths were in Mexico City, the rest were spread across Mexico - four in central San Luis Potosi, two up near the U.S. border in Baja California, and one in southern Oaxaca state.

Cordoba said Mexico has enough of the flu-fighting drug Tamiflu to treat one million people, but the medicine will be strictly controlled and handed out only by doctors.

Mexico's government had maintained until late Thursday that there was nothing unusual about the flu cases, although this year's flu season had been worse and longer than past years.

The sudden turnaround by public health officials angered many Mexicans.

"They could have stopped it in time," said Araceli Cruz, 24, a university student who emerged from the subway wearing a surgical mask. "Now they've let it spread to other people."

The city was handing out free surgical masks to passengers on buses and the subway system, which carries five million people each day. Government workers were ordered to wear the masks, and authorities urged residents to stay home from work if they felt ill.

Closing schools across Mexico's capital of 20 million kept 6.1 million students home, as well as thousands of university students. All state and city-run cultural activities were suspended, including libraries, state-run theatres, and at least 14 museums. Private athletic clubs closed down and soccer leagues were considering canceling weekend games.

The closures were the first citywide shutdown of public gathering places since thousands died in the devastating 1985 earthquake.

Mexico's response brought to mind other major outbreaks, such as when SARS hit Asia. At its peak in 2003, Beijing shuttered schools, cinemas and restaurants, and thousands of people were quarantined at home.

In March 2008, Hong Kong ordered more than a half-million students to stay home for two weeks because of a flu outbreak. It was the first such closure in Hong Kong since the outbreak of SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome.

"It's great they are taking precautions," said Lillian Molina, a teacher at the Montessori's World preschool in Mexico City, who scrubbed down empty classrooms with Clorox, soap and Lysol between fielding calls from worried parents.
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

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Wonderful. And I work at the airport so I'm probably going to be one of the first people to get hit by an epidemic. I need a job.
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

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Korvan wrote:If this new strain can also cause an immune cascade effect, I wonder if it would make any sense to try to lower one's immune system a bit. Basically just ignore all the advice my mom has given me over the years. Get less sleep, eat a bit less regular, stress out a bit more, get your feet wet, sit on cold concrete (or is that last one for hemorrhoids?).
If you are young and healthy it is unlikely you could lower your immune system enough by doing what you suggest.
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

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oh shit oh shit oh shit oh shit......................

Is that actually human to human infections?
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

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Broomstick wrote:
Korvan wrote:If this new strain can also cause an immune cascade effect, I wonder if it would make any sense to try to lower one's immune system a bit. Basically just ignore all the advice my mom has given me over the years. Get less sleep, eat a bit less regular, stress out a bit more, get your feet wet, sit on cold concrete (or is that last one for hemorrhoids?).
If you are young and healthy it is unlikely you could lower your immune system enough by doing what you suggest.
Increase the Ts cells or all sorts of inhibitory drugs for lymphocytes.
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But as far as board culture in general, I do think that young male overaggression is a contributing factor to the general atmosphere of hostility. It's not SOS and the Mess throwing hand grenades all over the forum- Red
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

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PainRack wrote:Is that actually human to human infections?
Yes
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by hongi »

For me, it came out of nowhere. It was the first time I heard about it...I didn't even realise that it wasn't a joke until someway into the article. It's incredibly scary to think that one day everything's fine, and the next you get a human-to-human infectious disease making headlines.
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

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hongi wrote:For me, it came out of nowhere. It was the first time I heard about it...I didn't even realise that it wasn't a joke until someway into the article. It's incredibly scary to think that one day everything's fine, and the next you get a human-to-human infectious disease making headlines.

Well, not to diminish the seriousness of the situation, but really such things have been the norm for most of human history. Just not the last couple generations. As scary as this shit is, our species and our various civilizations have pretty much suffered and endured these things since we started rubbing two sticks together for fire.
They say, "the tree of liberty must be watered with the blood of tyrants and patriots." I suppose it never occurred to them that they are the tyrants, not the patriots. Those weapons are not being used to fight some kind of tyranny; they are bringing them to an event where people are getting together to talk. -Mike Wong

But as far as board culture in general, I do think that young male overaggression is a contributing factor to the general atmosphere of hostility. It's not SOS and the Mess throwing hand grenades all over the forum- Red
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by CaptainChewbacca »

If it's combining human, avian, and porcine DNA in a way never before seen, what are the odds it wasn't created in nature?
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

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CaptainChewbacca wrote:If it's combining human, avian, and porcine DNA in a way never before seen, what are the odds it wasn't created in nature?
Minuscule.

Flu viruses, as far as we know, have always evolved by recombining DNA between their various strains. "Swine flu" is so called because it was originally a pig flu that made the jump to humans, long before we could manipulate genes. The combination is new but the mechanism is old.
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by fgalkin »

The flu has probably reached New York City:
WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) - Students at a New York City school have tested positive for Type A influenza, CNN reported on Saturday, but more tests are needed to see if they have the unusual new flu virus involved in an outbreak in Mexico, it said.

The television network, quoting local health officials, said the New York City health department was sending samples from nine students who had flu-like symptoms to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta for more detailed testing.

About 100 students at a school in the New York City borough of Queens became sick last week, prompting the tests, according to local media reports.

A quick throat swab test can tell if a person has influenza but further testing is usually required to determine the strain.

CDC officials said earlier on Saturday they were waiting for local health officials to ask for help and that they were not involved in the New York investigation. They noted that outbreaks of respiratory illness are common and do not necessarily mean that people have flu.

Public health officials in the United States, Canada and Mexico are on heightened alert to flu outbreaks because of a new influenza strain in the A/H1N1 family suspected of killing as many as 68 people in Mexico and infecting more than 1,000 more, including eight in the United States.

World Health Organization experts are set to declare the outbreak is a "public health event of international concern" and are assessing the risks the outbreak will turn into a pandemic. [ID:nN25474808] (Reporting by Roberta Rampton) (For full coverage of the flu outbreak, click on [nFLU])
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

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There was a lady who came to work today with flu symptoms (In San Antonio, where we already have 2 confirmed cases of the new virus) Goddammit, she sits 4 seats over - when she said she was sick I actually said "ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! What are you doing here?! Are you aware there is a flu outbreak with ~10% mortality rate?!"

Her answer? "No one else could come in to cover for me so I could not call in sick"


God-fucking-dammit.
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

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People who think their jobs are more important than their health (or their lives) never cease to amaze me....
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by fgalkin »

Cease your panic. This sort of attitude is precisely what we don't need right now.

There have been 18 confirmed deaths out of more than a 1000 cases, and another 40 or so unconfirmed ones, all of them in Mexico. Going by the statistics, even if you do get it, you have a 9.5/10 or thereabouts chance of getting out of this just fine, even if you do nothing at all beyond the usual flu treatment. If that is not enough, the virus has been shown to respond to antiviral treatments. No US fatalities have been reported.

The much greater damage will come from the probable economic disruption that will likely take place in case of epidemic. THIS is what your running around like a headless chicken is going to cause, so don't do it.

Granted, the woman still should not have come to work.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin
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Furlong
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by Furlong »

I am glad to see some people are reacting rationally and calmly to this news. The way it is being reported you would think that the end was upon us.
It is said that when three Unitarian Universalists are together, among them on any subject there are at least four opinions!
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fgalkin
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Re: Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

Post by fgalkin »

Broomstick wrote:People who think their jobs are more important than their health (or their lives) never cease to amaze me....
Because being sick AND jobless is a much better alternative, da?

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin
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