Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

[The Yosemite Bear]

warn me when we start hearing the bell ringers with their pull carts....

actually what scares me is that theirs almost as many reported cases in CA as there is in Mexico, but then that's just confirmed cases so far.... and were only talking single digit here....

definatly not yet in the realm of "Ashes. Ashes all fall down"

---edit 2---

yes, spanky I know that the song's not about the black death, but everyone has too many associations with it and black death now. Simular to red ridinghood, sex, and werewolves.

[Broomstick]

People who think their jobs are more important than their health (or their lives) never cease to amaze me....

Because being sick AND jobless is a much better alternative, da?

Been there, done that - completely sucks, especially in the US, but if you have a job with sick days you should use them when you're sick. My last corporate employer WOULD send people home who showed up visibly ill, and doing it too many times meant you'd be disciplined.

When I worked in long term disability I saw too many people who neglected their health and a treatable problem wound up leaving them disabled. That's not good. You shouldn't take off for every little sniffle, but there's a point where you definitely should.

[Chardok]

I'm not panicking - I'm aghast that someone could know that there is a potentially pandemic flu out there, has flu symptoms, and came to work anyway. That is precisely how things like this get WORSE.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Just buy a mask and wear it everywhere, if you're really, really, worried, and always wear gloves on your hands when touching items, and rub the gloves down with alcohol on a regular basis, carry a little bottle of ethyl alcohol with you.

There, you have done all you need to do, and should continue with your normal day to day life without any change to your routine until such time as quarantines and closures are decided upon by the relevant authorities.

[fgalkin]

I'm not panicking - I'm aghast that someone could know that there is a potentially pandemic flu out there, has flu symptoms, and came to work anyway. That is precisely how things like this get WORSE.

First of all, there are TWO cases from a population of over 1.3 million. The odds of it being swine flu as opposed to any other strain of flu are not very high. Now, I don't know what your company's policy on sick days is (or even what is it you do), but if you were really concerned about spreading the infection, wouldn't it make more sense to alert the management to this and ask her to be sent home?

Instead you go here and rant how a scary sneezing person was sitting close to you, after first screaming at her. That suggests to me you were concerned about yourself, and not thinking clearly.

That is the wrong way to go about this. Spreading panic will make things WORSE.

People who think their jobs are more important than their health (or their lives) never cease to amaze me....

Because being sick AND jobless is a much better alternative, da?

Been there, done that - completely sucks, especially in the US, but if you have a job with sick days you should use them when you're sick. My last corporate employer WOULD send people home who showed up visibly ill, and doing it too many times meant you'd be disciplined.

When I worked in long term disability I saw too many people who neglected their health and a treatable problem wound up leaving them disabled. That's not good. You shouldn't take off for every little sniffle, but there's a point where you definitely should.

Agreed, but that really depends on what Chardok's company's policy is, and what her job is. For example, I can call in sick, but doing so will grind a multi-million dollar business to a halt. So, I'm not going to do it unless I really have to, because it will not endear me to the management. Others are self employed and so a day missed is a day not being paid.

My point is that there is no reason to be "amazed" at people choosing work over health. It's an unfortunate reality of life.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Chardok]

No, Fgalkin I did not SCREAM at her - and she wasn't sneezing, she SAID she had the flu, asshole - and attitudes like that: "Oh, don't be scared of teh sniffley dude rofl" is exactly how shit like this gets worse - you're smart enough to know that. If you're sick - STAY THE FUCK HOME - even if it isn't ZOMGSWINEFLU. and I DID let management know, but only AFTER I found out which was 5 minutes before her shift ended. So stop being a twat. I'm not some random alarmist 15 year old idiot; I know what the hell's going on.

[fgalkin]

No, Fgalkin I did not SCREAM at her - and she wasn't sneezing, she SAID she had the flu, asshole - and attitudes like that: "Oh, don't be scared of teh sniffley dude rofl" is exactly how shit like this gets worse - you're smart enough to know that. If you're sick - STAY THE FUCK HOME - even if it isn't ZOMGSWINEFLU. and I DID let management know, but only AFTER I found out which was 5 minutes before her shift ended. So stop being a twat. I'm not some random alarmist 15 year old idiot; I know what the hell's going on.

You used allcaps, allcaps are usually used to signify shouting. You also said "flu symptoms" *shrug*

I've pointed out why people come to work while sick instead of staying home- I cannot say more without knowing more about what she does. In any case, I never said she should have come to work, quite the opposite, in fact.

The fact that you still refuse to calm down worries me, especially if, as you claim, "you know what's going on."

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Akkleptos]

Airborne Swine flu, an international health hazzard?
Relevant bits from the BBC's "Q&A: Swine flu":

Is this a new type of swine flu?
The World Health Organization has confirmed that at least some of the cases are a never-before-seen version of the H1N1 sub-strain of influenza type A. H1N1 is the same sub-strain which causes seasonal outbreaks of flu in humans on a regular basis. But this latest version of H1N1 is different: it contains genetic material that is typically found in strains of the virus that affect humans, birds and swine.
<snip>

How worried should people be?
When any new strain of flu emerges that acquires the ability to pass from person to person, it is monitored very closely in case it has the potential to spark a pandemic.

The World Health Organization has warned that taken together the Mexican and US cases could potentially trigger a global pandemic, and stress that the situation is serious. However, it is stressed that it is still too early to accurately assess the situation fully.

Currently, they say the world is closer to a flu pandemic than at any point since 1968 - rating the threat at three on a six-point scale.

Nobody knows the full potential impact of the pandemic, but experts have warned that it could cost millions of lives worldwide. The Spanish flu pandemic, which began in 1918, and was also caused by an H1N1 strain, killed millions of people.

The fact that all the cases in the US have so far produced mild symptoms is encouraging. It suggests that the severity of the Mexican outbreak may be due to an unusual geographically-specific factor - possibly a second unrelated virus circulating in the community - which would be unlikely to come into play in the rest of the world.

However, the fact that many of the victims are young does point to something unusual. Normal, seasonal flu tends to affect the elderly disproportionately.

Also, a man in London is under observation after returning from Mexico showing flu-like symptoms (no updates on this one yet as far as I know):

...
Meanwhile, a male British Airways cabin crew member is undergoing precautionary tests in a London hospital after falling ill with "flu-like" symptoms on a flight from Mexico City.

He was taken to Northwick Park Hospital, in Harrow after landing at Heathrow airport at 1400 BST (1300 GMT) on Saturday.

A hospital spokesman said: "He has flu-like symptoms and is responding well to treatment.

"The patient was admitted directly to a side room and the hospital is scrupulously following infection-control procedures to ensure there is no risk to any other individual in the hospital."

So what does it really look like in Mexico (particularly Mexico City), for regular people? Feedback from Mexicans and people in Mexico, also on the BBC:

I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control". As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.
Yeny Gregorio Dávila, Mexico City

The situation in Mexico City is really not normal. There is a sense of uncertainty that borders on paranoid behaviour in some cases. At this very moment, Mexican TV is showing how military forces are giving masks to the people in the streets. Moreover the news is sending alarming messages for the audience. Really, the atmosphere in the city is unsettling, a good example: pubs and concerts are being closed or cancelled and people don't haven thorough information. In this city (and country) there is an urgent need for assertive information, no paranoid messages from the government or the Mexican media.
Patricio Barrientos and Aranzazu Nuñez, Mexico City

Massive events have been cancelled at the National Auditorium - Mexico City's largest indoor venue with capacity of 10,000 - which has been closed. Two soccer games have been cancelled at the Olympic Stadium. A sold out game with 70,000 expected attendance will be played behind closed doors. Another game at the famous Azteca Stadium that would draw an attendance of 50,000 will also be played behind closed doors.
Juan Carlos Leon Calderon, Mexico City

It's eerily quiet here in the capital. Lots of people with masks, Facebook communities exchanging gallows humour, everybody waiting to see if schools and universities will stay closed for ten days (as goes the rumour). All masks have been used up, and we are waiting for new supplies.
Dr Duncan Wood, Mexico City

Yesterday in my office it was a bit surreal walking in to see all in blue masks with deep cleansing of computer equipment and surfaces going on. Let's hope it is contained and does not escalate. The local news is reporting 200 fatalities and reports of flu spreading from areas outside of Mexico City. Given the volume of daily commuter traffic on cramped busses and trains, this may not have to be too virulent to be disastrous in human terms. I wonder what controls there will be on flights in and out.
Will Shea, Mexico City

I work for the government as a head of a computer infrastructure operations department. At work we are doing several actions to try not to expose workers. We sent several home. I support the Pumas football team and the very important match with the Guadalajara team will be played behind closed doors. My family and I are going to stay home all weekend. We feel a little scared and confused with the feeling that we are not given being told the truth. Many people think the numbers of dead people is higher than we are being told.
Marcos, Mexico City

The whole city is affected, I have a very bad feeling about this. Two of my friends at work are sick, they were sick for a couple of days, they went to the hospital and they sent them back to work. The doctor told them it was just a flu until Friday when the alarm was spread, then they were allowed to go home. I work in a call centre and I'm worried because there are no windows in the building so it cannot be ventilated and around 400 people work there.

We all have talked to our supervisor but no one has done anything not even sterilise or disinfect the area. We will be sick soon and, well, do the math - 400 can infect at least another two per day. The authorities say there's nothing they can do since it's a private company and I can assure you, the company I work for is not the only one like this in the whole city. Us workers don't have much protection from our government and if we want to keep our jobs we have to go anyway.
Adriana, Mexico City

My sister got influenza like symptoms two weeks ago. She is fine now, thank god, but similar cases have been showing up since two weeks ago. I work for a bank and we were told to take our laptops because there is a high possibility to work from home. I have gone out to buy some face masks.
Ruben Farfan, Mexico City

I'm a college student in Mexico City, and I can only say that the information that the media has provided doesn't seem to be enough, we do not now how serious it is because they have failed to mention it. There have been two ways of responding to this event, the ones that have entered themselves into quarantine claiming that the government is hiding something much more serious, and those who take this as a joke saying that everyone is overreacting. To put a cherry on top all kind of crazy rumours are flying around - that they are going to quarantine Mexico City, that a school and some specific branches of offices and jobs are going to be suspended for days to come, and so on. I wish more info was available, for example how to prevent it? Have there been many deaths? Is there a threat of an epidemic?
Mari A, Mexico City

I didn't hear about the flu epidemic until last night at 2330. Yesterday the streets were almost empty compared to a normal Friday afternoon. The media is bombarding the same information over and over again, but the authorities haven't said anything new yet, only that they have enough vaccines for those with the flu and that we should avoid public spaces.
Paulina, Mexico City

This is another blow to the tourism industry in Mexico, even though non of the events that is taken place is anywhere near the tourist areas of Cancun, Playa del Carmen or Puerto Vallarta, the news comes across as all of Mexico is affected! After wrong reports of drug related violence, military presence etc. in Cancun, which hurt the industry tremendously, now people think that all of Mexico is affected by a virus that is mostly present in the capital. I guess the problem is that this is a country where the capital carries the same name as the country, thus when people hear news about Mexico, albeit it refers to Mexico City, they assume it is affecting the whole country.
Rainer, Cancun

It seems some people just cannot get their facts straight. There is NO VACCINE, as this is a new strain. The illness does respond to certain antivirals, though, and of those, the Health Secretary has enough to distribute for the moment, to be administered only to patients with a confirmed infection.

Also, it's important that this is going on mostly in the capital, Mexico City and a handful other cities in the country. The bad thing is that almost 20% of the total population of the country reside in Mexico City and the neighbouring Mexico State (also affected). People there are reportedly taking it calmly -meaning there's still no mass hysteria, people abandoning their workplaces en masse, riots, looting, martial law or anything remotely like it. In the rest of the country we just watch the news and... well, we get a tad worried, but nothing special.

Some extraordinary meassures are being taken by the Federal Government: Personnel authorised by the Health Secretary will be able to get into any house or business without any kind of warrant in the interesting of public health. The infected -or those suspected of being infected- will be isolated by this same personnel (I take that to imply "even against their will"). Sort of martial law-ish. This was on the news here an hour ago or so.

I've also heard rumours -unconfirmed as of yet- about the government shutting down cable TV in Mexico City -so people can only watch the big networks over the air? Why?- I'll believe it when I see a trustworthy report on it.

A nicer, but also important note:

...
One encouraging sign is that Mexican doctors say they have not seen an exponential rise in the number of infections, as had been feared.

[fgalkin]

I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control". As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.
Yeny Gregorio Dávila, Mexico City

Huh? A doctor who does not realize that a new strain is not affected by existing vaccines? How strange.

Either that person is not a doctor, or she's lying (or both!), or something else is going on that we're not being told about.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Akkleptos]

I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control". As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.
Yeny Gregorio Dávila, Mexico City

Huh? A doctor who does not realize that a new strain is not affected by existing vaccines? How strange.

Either that person is not a doctor, or she's lying (or both!), or something else is going on that we're not being told about.

Ah, yes. It sounded like someone who just wanted to stir up some shit (the bull- kind, that is) to me, too. But I wanted to report it as it was on the original site. Or, as you say, something else might be going on, that we're not being told, but I hope not. And if you knew how incompetent so many people just out of Med School are in Mexico (at least from the big public universities) you'd be surprised. Nevertheless, if she says she's a resident doctor, that would imply she has specialised on something, and the Speciality Test is quite difficult, it's what weeds out the deadbeats. But, in short, I don't buy it.

The rest is more consistent with things as we have been seeing (at least, as reported by the media) here in Mexico, though. I have yet to see what my girl's relatives from Mexico City have to report (they're coming to my sister-in-law's wedding. I'm not planning on shaking anyone's hands or kissing anyone's cheeks, just in case).

[Chardok]

Okay, Fgalkin - I see that I did type the first part of my post in allcaps. Sorry about that, I should not have jumped on your assessment - I will clarify by saying it was meant to convey incredulousness, not necessarily volume - totally my mistake. I work in an office environment (And a call center at that) Yelling would not be appropriate or indeed tolerated. I was just shocked, is all. There are only a few things which truly scare me, and highly transmissible diseases are one of them (Along with flying, asteroids, nuclear war). I take preventative measures against transmission very seriously and when there is a warning about a potentially deadly flu strain, I just find that coming to work where you will certainly expose many other people to it to just be the height of selfishness and stupidity.

Also - our proximity here to the percieved epicenter and our position as a major travel hub for people travelling from said epicenter worries me - all the more reason to be cautious and not take stupid risks like coming to work when you have even mild flu symptoms.

Again, I'm sorry for knee-jerking - you didn't deserve it.

[Kodiak]

There was a "breaking-news" bulletin in my inbox today.

The United States government declared a public health emergency Sunday as the number of identified cases of swine flu in the nation rose to 20.

The declaration is part of a "standard operating procedure" that will make available additional government resources to combat the virus, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said at the White House.

Additional cases of swine flu are expected to be reported in the coming days, added Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

No one has died in the U.S. from swine flu, officials said Sunday.

In New York City, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said eight students at St. Francis Prepatory School in Queens have tested positive for swine flu. More than 100 students at the school were absent with flu-like symptoms last week, he said.

State public health officials in Ohio confirmed one case of swine flu on Sunday. There have been seven confirmed cases in California, two in Kansas, and two in Texas, Besser said.

The World Health Organization advised all countries to be on the lookout for "unusual" outbreaks of flu, after an emergency meeting Saturday as the seriousness of the outbreak became clear.

By Sunday, 81 deaths in Mexico had been deemed "likely linked" to swine flu. Viral testing has confirmed 20 cases, said Dr. Jose A. Cordova Villalobos, Mexico's health secretary.

In Mexico City, the massive downtown Cathedral of Mexico City was open but Masses were not scheduled. Dozens of worshippers put on masks and went inside the church anyway to pray on their own.

Canada confirmed its first cases of swine flu on Sunday, with four people said to have the virus in the eastern province of Nova Scotia, health officials said.

Dr. Robert Strang, Nova Scotia's chief public health officer, said the cases were among students who had recently traveled to Mexico.

Strang said the people affected were only "mildly ill," and all are recovering. He said people who had recently been traveling should call their doctor and stay home if they suffer flu-like symptoms.

The H1N1 strain of swine flu is usually associated with pigs. When the flu spreads person-to-person, instead of from animals to humans, it can continue to mutate, making it a tougher strain that is harder to treat or fight off.

Symptoms of swine flu include fever, lethargy, lack of appetite, coughing, runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea, according to the CDC.

President Obama recently returned from a trip to Mexico, but has not shown any signs of flu-like symptoms, the White House said.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said the outbreak "is of great concern to the White House," and Obama is receiving regular briefings on the issue.

"I would tell people it's certainly not a time to panic," Gibbs told reporters. "If you're sick, stay home, get treatment, go see a doctor." But he added, "The government is taking all the steps it needs to and must do to take the precautions to deal with whatever size and scope we may be facing."

In New Zealand, officials said 22 students and three teachers back from a three-week-long language trip to Mexico may have been infected with the swine flu virus.

The 25 students and teachers at Auckland's Rangitoto College returned to New Zealand via Los Angeles on Saturday.

Fourteen have shown flu-like symptoms, with four "more unwell than others," said Dr. Julia Peters, clinical director of Auckland Regional Public Health Service. It is not clear whether anyone else who was on the plane with them has shown signs of the disease.

Health Minister Tony Ryall said 10 students tested positive for influenza A. The specimens will be sent to WHO to determine whether it is H1N1 swine influenza.

H1N1 influenza is a subset of influenza A. The WHO results are expected back by midweek. The group remains quarantined at home.

"It certainly has not been confirmed that they have swine flu," said Dr. Craig Thornley of Auckland Regional Public Health Service. "We already have provisional information that some of the group have influenza A. We won't know if they have the type of influenza A that is swine flu."

A British Airways crew member developed flu-like symptoms during a flight from Mexico City to London and was tested for swine flu, but the results came back negative.

"I can confirm that the patient doesn't have swine flu," said Jonathan Street, a spokesman for Northwick Park Hospital in north London. "We have done all tests, and they all came back negative."

The flight attendant is back at work, British Airways told CNN.

Britain is not putting travel restrictions in place, according to British Airways and Heathrow airport operator BAA, and the country's Port Health Authority has no reason for concern over swine flu, BAA said.

The Mexico Tourist Board said Saturday there are no restrictions on travel to the country.

In Israel, doctors are running tests on a man who recently returned from Mexico with light flu symptoms.

U.S. health officials said Friday that some cases of the virus in the United States matched samples of the deadly Mexican virus.

All the patients have recovered or are expected to.

The panic over the virus prompted Canada to issue a travel health notice, saying the public health agency was "tracking clusters of severe respiratory illness with deaths in Mexico."

South Korea said it will test airline passengers arriving from the United States. Japan will convene a Cabinet meeting Monday to develop measures to block entry of the virus into the country.

The United States has not issued any travel warnings or quarantines.

But US Airways said Saturday it would allow passengers to change plans if they wanted to because of the outbreak.

Airline spokeswoman Michelle Mohr said it was not asking people not to travel to Mexico, but wanted to "give them that flexibility" if "they don't feel comfortable."

Gregory Hartl of the World Health Organization said the strain of the virus seen in Mexico is worrisome because it has mutated from older strains.
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"Any time that there is a virus which changes ... it means perhaps the immunities the human body has built up to deal with influenza might not be adjusted well enough to deal with this new virus," Hartl said.

Mexico City has closed all of its schools and universities until further notice because of the virus.

So, to recap: There are 20 confirmed cases in the US, 80 deaths in Mexico "likely linked" to the outbreak, and unconfirmed reports in the UK, Canada, and New Zealand. Excuse me while I stock up on canned food and latex gloves. Also, staying home from work is now endorsed by the Health Department.

[Cairber]

I went out today to restock our emergency kit. I had not done this since Ruby was born, so I did not have items necessary for her- such as infant versions of medication, droppers in case we need to rehydrate her that way, diapers, etc. We also stocked up a face masks and gloves. I figure it may be alarmist, but it's good to have these things anyway.

Kodiak- with your new one you may need to adjust your emergency supplies as well!!

[Darth Wong]

Agreed, but that really depends on what Chardok's company's policy is, and what her job is. For example, I can call in sick, but doing so will grind a multi-million dollar business to a halt. So, I'm not going to do it unless I really have to, because it will not endear me to the management. Others are self employed and so a day missed is a day not being paid.

My point is that there is no reason to be "amazed" at people choosing work over health. It's an unfortunate reality of life.

I've worked on a "don't come in, don't get paid" basis for most of my professional life, and I still occasionally took time off when sick. You have to be able to decide whether this is the kind of illness you can work through or the kind where a refusal to take time off would only make you more sick, and eventually force you to take more time off.

I knew a guy once who used that "I can't take time off just because I'm sick. Are you going to pay my bills for me?" line. His illness escalated into pneumonia and he ended up being hospitalized and taking more than a month off anyway.

[weemadando]

Yeah, I'm thinking that I might hit up some long-term solutions for food while I'm on leave at the moment. Glad I'm not at work though - about the worst place you could possibly be is in a social security office...

[Flagg]

Agreed, but that really depends on what Chardok's company's policy is, and what her job is. For example, I can call in sick, but doing so will grind a multi-million dollar business to a halt. So, I'm not going to do it unless I really have to, because it will not endear me to the management. Others are self employed and so a day missed is a day not being paid.

My point is that there is no reason to be "amazed" at people choosing work over health. It's an unfortunate reality of life.

I've worked on a "don't come in, don't get paid" basis for most of my professional life, and I still occasionally took time off when sick. You have to be able to decide whether this is the kind of illness you can work through or the kind where a refusal to take time off would only make you more sick, and eventually force you to take more time off.

I knew a guy once who used that "I can't take time off just because I'm sick. Are you going to pay my bills for me?" line. His illness escalated into pneumonia and he ended up being hospitalized and taking more than a month off anyway.

The worst are the fucking bosses who will bitch at you for coming in sick and then give you just as much shit for calling in sick. I had around 3 of those.

[Darth Wong]

Is this a serious threat, or is it another SARS-like exaggeration? The flu kills a fair number of people every year as a matter of course, and has done so for our entire lifetimes.

[Flagg]

Is this a serious threat, or is it another SARS-like exaggeration? The flu kills a fair number of people every year as a matter of course, and has done so for our entire lifetimes.

Well it supposedly is more lethal to people between 25 and 50 and kills around 10% of those infected, so that's worse than SARS if true. SARS only had like a 2% mortality rate.

[Darth Wong]

The worst are the fucking bosses who will bitch at you for coming in sick and then give you just as much shit for calling in sick. I had around 3 of those.

The only way to placate that kind of boss is to come in and look like death warmed over, and then drag your ass around the office until he tells you to go home.

[Furlong]

I, for one, am not panicking.

Remember the media reports things int he most sensational way. For instance, I saw a headline earlier stating that a Public health emergency had been declared. The way it was written seemed to imply disaster was imminent. A quick glance on Google told me that it is a "declaration of emergency preparedness", according to Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano.

*edit*

Just saw this from Reuters...

* US to release 25 percent of anti-viral stockpile

* Health chief recommends planning for school closures

* Too early to determine impact on economy

By Ross Colvin

WASHINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - The United States declared a public health emergency on Sunday because of an outbreak of swine flu that has been diagnosed in 20 people in this country -- the same strain suspected of killing 81 people in Mexico.

The outbreak is yet another distraction for President Barack Obama, who is focused on rescuing the economy from its worst crisis in decades. His administration will also be mindful of the lasting damage to former President George W. Bush over his government's inept handling of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

"At this point, a top priority is to ensure that communication is robust and that medical surveillance efforts are fully activated," John Brennan, assistant to the president for Homeland Security, told a White House briefing.

Health and Homeland Security officials announced steps to release some of the country's stockpiles of anti-flu drugs, Tamiflu and Relenza. They recommended that local authorities plan for possible school closures and for people with flu-like symptoms to stay at home to reduce the possibility of transmission.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said it was too early to say what impact the outbreak could have on efforts to get the economy back on its feet. Spiraling health-care costs are already a huge drain on the economy.

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said the declaration of the public health emergency was necessary to free up federal, state and local agencies' resources and authorize the release of funds to buy more antivirals.

"This is standard operating procedure," Napolitano stressed, adding that similar declarations had been issued in the past to help states cope with flooding or to help them prepare for approaching hurricanes.

WHY NOT AS DEADLY?

The acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr Richard Besser, told the briefing there were 20 confirmed cases of swine flu in the United States. All patients had recovered and only one person had to be hospitalized.

It appeared to be the same strain as the virus that has killed scores in Mexico, he said, although it was not yet clear why it had not proven as deadly in the United States. Health officials from the United States and Canada were now in Mexico to try to answer this "critical question," he said.

"We expect to see more cases of swine flu. As we continue to look for cases, we expect that we will find them," he said.

Besser said the closure of two schools in New York City, where there had been a cluster of swine flu cases, and in Texas had been the right way to go.

"If there are other communities where we saw cases in a school, we would be recommending they take those actions as well," he said.

Napolitano said the United States would release 25 percent of the 50 million anti-flu drugs from the strategic national stockpile. The Department of Defense has also bought 7 million courses of Tamiflu for for defense personnel, she said.

Tamiflu, a pill made by Roche AG ROG.X and Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD.O), and GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK.L) (GSK.N) and Biota's (BTA.AX) Relenza, an inhaled drug, can treat influenza if given quickly. They have been shown to work against this new flu strain.

Gibbs said Obama, who recently returned from a trip to Mexico, had shown no symptoms of the virus and had therefore not been tested. (Additional reporting by Kim Dixon; editing by Chris Wilson) (For full coverage of the flu outbreak, click on [nFLU])

(Emphasis added)

[weemadando]

Is this a serious threat, or is it another SARS-like exaggeration? The flu kills a fair number of people every year as a matter of course, and has done so for our entire lifetimes.

Well it supposedly is more lethal to people between 25 and 50 and kills around 10% of those infected, so that's worse than SARS if true. SARS only had like a 2% mortality rate.

In addition it's been getting morbidity in the young healthy adult demographic which is always worrying.

I'm hoping that we've nipped this one in the bud due to there actually being good early reporting of cases. It'll be China that the big one comes from in all likelihood as they'll just cover and deny and ignore until it has gone pandemic, then say: "oh yeah, we've had some cases of that now, it must have been filthy capitalist gwai lo who brought it into the austere beautiful clean nation of China".

[The Duchess of Zeon]

We have 81 deaths out of 2000 probable infections in Mexico; that isn't 10% of the infected killed, that's 4.05%, so it's only twice as lethal as SARS in Mexico right now. Furthermore all cases in the United States have successfully recovered with two out of four available anti-viral drugs working successfully in treating this strain of influenza. Now, Mexico City is a huge, sweltering place of around 20 millions filled with smog and guaranteed to have a very high incidence of respiratory illness, and I certainly doubt that they're all that effective in getting anti-virals to the people who need them. Quite simply, if you get seriously sick in the US with this thing, we will treat you with anti-virals and you will get better. That's what all the indications are so far, since the actual number of infections in the USA may be in the hundreds, especially with that school in New York.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Also remember that we've got 57 million doses of the two effective anti-virals stockpiled in this country, and that generally even in worst case scenarios only about 50% of a population will actually be infected by a pandemic. So we can treat something like the worst 35 - 40% of the flu cases in the USA even with a general pandemic (the actual figure will be somewhat higher because we're both producing the two drugs in overdrive now, certainly, and also have more in regular circulation), when only the worst 4.05% are the ones who are dying.... You can certainly see, then, how this is not in fact a serious health issue at all, at least in the first world. God knows what would happen if it hits India and Sub-Saharan Africa.

[Broomstick]

That's all very cheerful for the US, except remember that 1 in 6 Americans do not have health insurance and will probably wait past the window of greatest effectiveness before getting the anti-virals - if they go to a doctor at all. That is, of course, where our system breaks down. You will be treated if you have either insurance or money. If you have neither you will not receive anti-viral drugs until you are in the ER in critical condition, by which time you will have spread this to others.

[Master of Ossus]

We have 81 deaths out of 2000 probable infections in Mexico; that isn't 10% of the infected killed, that's 4.05%, so it's only twice as lethal as SARS in Mexico right now. Furthermore all cases in the United States have successfully recovered with two out of four available anti-viral drugs working successfully in treating this strain of influenza. Now, Mexico City is a huge, sweltering place of around 20 millions filled with smog and guaranteed to have a very high incidence of respiratory illness, and I certainly doubt that they're all that effective in getting anti-virals to the people who need them. Quite simply, if you get seriously sick in the US with this thing, we will treat you with anti-virals and you will get better. That's what all the indications are so far, since the actual number of infections in the USA may be in the hundreds, especially with that school in New York.

4% untreated is still a lot worse than SARS and West Nile Virus (perhaps my vote for the most exaggerated "epidemic" threat in recent memory.)