Killer swine flu outbreak in Mexico, government alarmed

[Chardok]

Hmm

The Texas Department of State Health Services today announced that all 14 schools and district facilities in the Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City Independent School District will be closed effective immediately after several more flu-like illnesses have been discovered in the department’s ongoing swine flu investigation.

All extra-curricular activities also are cancelled.

The move follows the closing of the district’s Byron Steele High School, announced on Saturday. Swine flu has been lab-confirmed in two students from that school who have recovered. Lab confirmation is pending on a third case who is recovering.

“We don’t have lab confirmation for any of the additional flu-like illnesses yet, but we’ve found enough illnesses associated with some of the other schools that we believe it’s prudent to close all of them before classes resume on Monday,” said Sandra Guerra, M.D., DSHS regional director and the public health authority for Guadalupe County.

She urged students not to be around each other while the schools are closed, noting that would “defeat the purpose of the closings.”

DSHS is urging the schools’ staff, faculty, students and their household members to avoid contact with others, especially if they have symptoms of a respiratory illness.

Symptoms of swine flu in people are similar to those of regular or seasonal flu and include fever, fatigue, lack of appetite and coughing. Some with swine flu also have reported runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.

Health officials say everyone should follow standard precautions to reduce the spread of any respiratory illness.

•Stay home when you are sick to avoid spreading illness to others.

•Cough or sneeze into the crook of your elbow or a tissue and properly dispose of used tissues.

•Wash hands frequently and thoroughly with soap and warm water or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer.

To reach the Health Department, call 888-777-5320. This is a toll-free, non-emergency number.

Pretty aggressive.

[The Yosemite Bear]

The worst are the fucking bosses who will bitch at you for coming in sick and then give you just as much shit for calling in sick. I had around 3 of those.

The only way to placate that kind of boss is to come in and look like death warmed over, and then drag your ass around the office until he tells you to go home.

Sounds like my college civil service boss. made me come in with a 106 fever and pnumonia (yeah everyone else gets mono the first time the make out as a virgin, I got Pnumonia), then ordered me to go home after I fucked all the paperwork up, working while higher then a kite on morphine based cold meds, that and his boss caught me passed out cold (or should I say hot) at my desk, with all the AC's running enough to turn my little outer office into a fridge. (trying to bring down my fever)

[Cecelia5578]

Looks like we already have sides-those who think this is gonna be a disaster of epic proportions, and those who are trying to advocate calmness.

To bring up what Broomstick said,

That's all very cheerful for the US, except remember that 1 in 6 Americans do not have health insurance and will probably wait past the window of greatest effectiveness before getting the anti-virals - if they go to a doctor at all. That is, of course, where our system breaks down. You will be treated if you have either insurance or money. If you have neither you will not receive anti-viral drugs until you are in the ER in critical condition, by which time you will have spread this to others.

I would seriously expect, if this gets as bad as you are thinking it will, people will start showing up to emergency rooms well before they reach the end of the road, where it is Federal law that everyone gets treated, regardless of income. Of course, it could ruin your credit record with collections and whatnot, though I have no idea what the cost of anti-viral treatment would be (i.e. if over night care would be required, if it was on an outpatient basis, etc.). I guess my point is, given how Americans tend to overreact to things, and how popular the ER is for even minor, trivial complaints, I think you are being a tad too pessimistic.

EDIT: All of this is to say that I think the local ER will be the logical first choice for people, not their non existent family doc via their non existent health insurance.

[Akkleptos]

WHY NOT AS DEADLY?

The acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr Richard Besser, told the briefing there were 20 confirmed cases of swine flu in the United States. All patients had recovered and only one person had to be hospitalized.

It appeared to be the same strain as the virus that has killed scores in Mexico, he said, although it was not yet clear why it had not proven as deadly in the United States. Health officials from the United States and Canada were now in Mexico to try to answer this "critical question," he said.

It's important to mention that most of the dead in Mexico have been otherwise healthy adults, whereas in the US it's been mostly young people and teenagers, IIRC.

In any case, anything that is airborne and transmited by contact is dangerous, IMHO. That's probably why the WHO and the CDC are so spooked.

Well it supposedly is more lethal to people between 25 and 50 and kills around 10% of those infected, so that's worse than SARS if true. SARS only had like a 2% mortality rate.

Wasn't the mortality rate of the Spanish Influenza of 1918 around 2% as well?

... [excerpt]

The effect of the influenza epidemic was so severe that the average life span in the US was depressed by 10 years. The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%. The death rate for 15 to 34-year-olds of influenza and pneumonia were 20 times higher in 1918 than in previous years (Taubenberger). People were struck with illness on the street and died rapid deaths. One anectode shared of 1918 was of four women playing bridge together late into the night. Overnight, three of the women died from influenza (Hoagg). Others told stories of people on their way to work suddenly developing the flu and dying within hours (Henig). One physician writes that patients with seemingly ordinary influenza would rapidly "develop the most viscous type of pneumonia that has ever been seen" and later when cyanosis appeared in the patients, "it is simply a struggle for air until they suffocate," (Grist, 1979). Another physician recalls that the influenza patients "died struggling to clear their airways of a blood-tinged froth that sometimes gushed from their nose and mouth," (Starr, 1976). The physicians of the time were helpless against this powerful agent of influenza...

Hopefully the advances we've had in medical science and treatment will make a big difference this time around.

[SirNitram]

And the secretary of the HHS is still locked in a childish filibuster because the GOP is whining about her pro-choice stances in the past.

Oh well. At least this is getting Texas to STFU about secession.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Well, I have free treatment through the school clinic though I'd have to pay the price of the tamiflu, but that isn't that bad. Whether or not you've had a flu shot is irrelevant, it won't work against this new strain. Of course I'll admit to being personally fortunate--Pullman is in bumfuck nowhere, 2.5 hours drive from Spokane, six from Seattle. But, really, I would not be remotely concerned in the US.

My big fear is what happens when this hits Africa and India like I said--I think the death toll could equal the Asian Flu of 1957 - 1958 as a proportion of world population, very easily. It was about 1.5 million for that flu, and so in the modern era might easily end up 3 - 5 million with a similar flu like this, but it's going to be almost entirely concentrated in the undeveloped areas of the world. It's spreading so rapidly that I don't think there's any way to prevent that, either, except for sheer luck.

[loomer]

I can't give a news article for this, but apparently there is a suspected case in New Zealand. My mother is here to look after me what with the good ol' regular flu I've got, and saw something about it on the news or somesuch.

Could be bullshit, I don't know, but an interesting possibility.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I can't give a news article for this, but apparently there is a suspected case in New Zealand. My mother is here to look after me what with the good ol' regular flu I've got, and saw something about it on the news or somesuch.

Could be bullshit, I don't know, but an interesting possibility.

It's confirmed, actually, there was a group of language students who flew back from Mexico City with it.

[phongn]

The Daily Telegraph has a report the suspected case in NZ.

[Cecelia5578]

I think a good reason why young people have caught it is that either they recently got back from spring break in Mexico, or had some school related reason to go there.

[Darth Wong]

To be honest, I never entirely understood the great appeal of Mexico as a vacation destination. It's a third-world country. What does it offer that you can't get at more civilized destinations? If you go to the beach on the California coast line, is this a vastly different experience than going to the beach in Mexico?

[Cecelia5578]

To be honest, I never entirely understood the great appeal of Mexico as a vacation destination. It's a third-world country. What does it offer that you can't get at more civilized destinations? If you go to the beach on the California coast line, is this a vastly different experience than going to the beach in Mexico?

Quite possibly because underage people can drink, and...well, that's the only logical reason I can think of.

[loomer]

Don't forget weed, cocaine, hookers, underage hookers, and the whole 'no one really cares what you do' deal.

[Kamakazie Sith]

To be honest, I never entirely understood the great appeal of Mexico as a vacation destination. It's a third-world country. What does it offer that you can't get at more civilized destinations? If you go to the beach on the California coast line, is this a vastly different experience than going to the beach in Mexico?

Apparently it's "exotic". I agree with you so I probably don't understand either.

So, we know that there are reported cases in the US, and that there are reported cases in Mexico. The only deaths, so far, have occurred in Mexico. I think I'll hold off on the mouth guards and apocalypse preparations...this seems a lot of like the SARS scare. The best advice I've heard so far is don't panic and maybe wash your hands more often.

(Famous last words)

[Mayabird]

Mexico's probably a lot cheaper than other places, like that California beach, while still having that "exotic" factor. But then again, other third world countries would probably be cheaper too, and some of them suck much less. Does Mexico do a lot of advertising for tourism?

[Questor]

There is advertising, but mostly for the resorts. Most of the attraction is what has been stated above, particularly the drinking, at least for teens. The fact that an American of moderate means can play rich is also an attraction.

I will also suggest that part of the appeal is the danger. I know I have heard more students talking about traveling to Mexico since the issues of the cartels have become more common knowledge.

The only attractions Mexico ever had for me was visiting the historical sites, but I doubt I'd ever go. There are a number of more civilized areas with history just as interesting. The historical sites of Europe are much higher on my list.

[Akkleptos]

Thirld World, eh?

*Ahem* Bullshit.
At least not in the sense Guatemala, Thailand, or the like...

See also...

Agriculture > products
corn, wheat, soybeans, rice, beans, cotton, coffee, fruit, tomatoes; beef, poultry, dairy products; wood products
Big Mac Index $2.66 [21st of 65]
Debt > External $182,000,000,000.00 Time series [26th of 136]
Distribution of family income > Gini index 50.9 Time series [6th of 43]
Economic freedom 2.2 [59th of 156]
Economic importance 5.6 [14th of 25]
Exports $271,900,000,000.00 Time series [15th of 189]
GDP $839,181,900,000.00 Time series [14th of 203]
GDP > PPP $1,014,514,000,000.00 [12th of 163]
GDP > Real growth rate 3.2% Time series [142nd of 198]
GDP per capita in 1973 $4,189.00 [30th of 52]
GINI index 46.05 Time series [7th of 40]
Gross National Income $550,000,000,000.00 [10th of 172]
Human Development Index 0.814 [53rd of 178]
Income category Upper middle income
Population below poverty line 13.8% Time series [18th of 46]
Poverty > Share of all poor people 1.43 % of world's poor [9th of 80]
Public debt 22.8 % of GDP Time series [87th of 121]
Technological achievement 0.39 [30th of 68]
Tourist arrivals 19,351,000 [8th of 152]

More of what they call an "Emerging market" or "Developing country", rather than "Thirld World country" as in Nigeria or Bolivia, &c. Lots of poor people, yes, and a dramatic change upon crossing the border from the US, but quite far from the "shithole" lot, except for the ones obsessed with the man sleeping the siesta under the sombrero stereotype. Seriosly, go ask someone who has actually lived in a regular-sized city in Mexico. Speedy Gonzalez... Pfft!

Why do so many people come to Mexico? Dollars and Euros are worth more here. It's got beautiful beaches, picturesque colonial cities, as well as busy, modern cities, mountains, deserts, jungles (it's one of the 18 biologically megadiverse countries)... The list goes on.

Spring breakers on Mexican beaches indulge in underage drinking? As bad as it is, it isn't like tourist destinations everywhere don't show special leniency to tourists.

The lack of information going around is dizzying.

Influenza, people! WHO, the CDC, what's going on, what are the prospects? Let's focus!

[TimothyC]

Mexico's probably a lot cheaper than other places, like that California beach, while still having that "exotic" factor. But then again, other third world countries would probably be cheaper too, and some of them suck much less. Does Mexico do a lot of advertising for tourism?

It is cheaper. I'm not supposed to know how much, but people shouldn't post "Management Eyes Only" documents on a public [physical] bulletin board. As for advertising. I see a fair bit, more than any other countries in Latin America other than Jamaica and The Bahamas.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

From the WHO:

The likelihood of dying from SARS in a given area has been shown to depend on the profile of the cases, including the age group most affected and the presence of underlying disease. Based on data received by WHO to date, the case fatality ratio is estimated to be less than 1% in persons aged 24 years or younger, 6% in persons aged 25 to 44 years, 15% in persons aged 45 to 64 years, and greater than 50% in persons aged 65 years and older.

So only 2%? The diease is pretty uncurable, and it really depends on how the body rides out the virus. Some survivors were crippled.

[Broomstick]

Link to a map showing locations of outbreaks. Although it come up centered on the US it's really a world map, move it around to find, say New Zealand (which is reporting a case) or Europe (see Spain, France, UK).

I'm not in panic mode - but I am interested and watching.

[Darth Wong]

Thirld World, eh?

*Ahem* Bullshit.
At least not in the sense Guatemala, Thailand, or the like...

...

More of what they call an "Emerging market" or "Developing country" ...

I hate to break it to you, but for those of us in first-world countries, "developing countries" and "third world countries" are pretty much the same thing.

Sorry, but when you say "we're not a third world country, we're a developing country!", that comes off as quasi-comical hair-splitting rather than an important correction.

[loomer]

Well, according to TEN news, it may have spread to Australia. Key word: May. The Australian Medical Association is confirming nothing at this point, but New Zealand IS awful close.

Weee! Great news to get when you're sick with the flu, huh?

EDIT: RSOE EDIS have set up a pandemic monitoring map. Basically shows you who, what, and where is believed to be infected or under suspicion. http://www.idemc.org/

[Bounty]

Note that the European "outbreaks" are mostly individuals coming back from Mexico with potential flu-like symptoms who have been quarantined and are undergoing tests. As of this morning, there was no single confirmed case of this strain of the flu.

[Tolya]

I have a question for those more medically competent. How do you diagnose the swine flu? Wiki says that a sample specimen of the virus must be sent to a lab (CDC in US) for investigation, but Im careful when it comes to stuff written there.

[weemadando]

I have a question for those more medically competent. How do you diagnose the swine flu? Wiki says that a sample specimen of the virus must be sent to a lab (CDC in US) for investigation, but Im careful when it comes to stuff written there.

It's pretty much a case of potential cases (severe flus with matching symptoms) would have blood samples taken and sent to the WHO or CDC, whoever has the closest labs for testing.

A doctor can go: "Ayup, that there's a flu." But without actually looking at hte little buggers, to the best of my knowledge it's practically impossible to distinguish between strains without extended periods of observation.