Russo-Japanese War prolonged (RAR!)

[Force Lord]

I was reading the book The Americans and it mentioned something about the Russo-Japanese War. It says that Japan was running out of men and money as a result of its victories against Russia, something they kept secret. As a result, they accepted a US-backed cease-fire so they could consolidate their gains. What if Russia found out Japan had feet of clay and prolonged the war enough to win? This assumes Theodore Roosevelt fails in his peace initiative. What would be the consequences of a Russian victory? What would change in Russia, Japan, and Asia?

[Zor]

I was reading the book The Americans and it mentioned something about the Russo-Japanese War. It says that Japan was running out of men and money as a result of its victories against Russia, something they kept secret. As a result, they accepted a US-backed cease-fire so they could consolidate their gains. What if Russia found out Japan had feet of clay and prolonged the war enough to win? This assumes Theodore Roosevelt fails in his peace initiative. What would be the consequences of a Russian victory? What would change in Russia, Japan, and Asia?

The Russians were not doing so well either you know. After the Battle of Tsushima, the Russian Imperial Navy was effectively removed from the equation (And would remain so until well after the Hammer and Sickle replaced the Two Headed eagle of the Tsardom). At the same time, their are the logistical issues of sending men and equipment from the Western Industrialized provinces to eastern Siberia to keep up the fight while the Imperial Japanese Army had basically oused them from Korea. This is of course leaving aside the dislike of the Russian People for the War and the threat of Revolution.

Zor

[montypython]

I was reading the book The Americans and it mentioned something about the Russo-Japanese War. It says that Japan was running out of men and money as a result of its victories against Russia, something they kept secret. As a result, they accepted a US-backed cease-fire so they could consolidate their gains. What if Russia found out Japan had feet of clay and prolonged the war enough to win? This assumes Theodore Roosevelt fails in his peace initiative. What would be the consequences of a Russian victory? What would change in Russia, Japan, and Asia?

The Russians were not doing so well either you know. After the Battle of Tsushima, the Russian Imperial Navy was effectively removed from the equation (And would remain so until well after the Hammer and Sickle replaced the Two Headed eagle of the Tsardom). At the same time, their are the logistical issues of sending men and equipment from the Western Industrialized provinces to eastern Siberia to keep up the fight while the Imperial Japanese Army had basically oused them from Korea. This is of course leaving aside the dislike of the Russian People for the War and the threat of Revolution.

Zor

A long war of attrition would have been favorable to the Russians (with more plentiful manpower and resources to draw on), while the Japanese were straining resource-wise from the existing fighting, so it could end up going from a Japanese victory to a Russian one.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

The Russians had performed logistic feats of the impossible to support something like 800,000 men, potentially, entirely via the Trans-Siberian single-track railroad... And they were doing it successfully. Japan was exhausted, financially bankrupt, and had suffered heavy casualties. Had the Russians fought on, they would have won, without question. That is however ignoring the fact that Russia was in a state of revolution in the same period which was hampering the war economy. However, the severity of the state of revolution was exacerbated by the defeat in the war, and before that, the defeat at Tsushima. Therefore the most reasonable (and it is quite reasonable) solution is if the fleet is never sent to face the Japanese and the Russians rely entirely on their Army. Harbin will be defended successfully, the Japanese tide will break, the severity of the discontent will be reduced and will not spread with the end of the war, allowing the Tsar to (very much in the short term--it just delays problems for a while after the end of the war!) restore order and press home counterattacks with a large and reasonably equipped army in Manchuria. Port Arthur will still fall to the Japanese, but they will soon find themselves besieged in it as the Russian counterattacks inevitably grind their way in blood back to the Yalu, except of course that the Japanese can resupply by sea.

The Japanese, broke, would have to accept terms, such as the restoration of Port Arthur to the Russians and recognition of Russian suzerainty / influence over Manchuria by that point, though the Russians probably could not successfully invade Korea against Japanese opposition even with their economy bankrupt. It might, however, be attempted though it's liable not to succeed.

It will probably however prevent WW1, as a victory in the east as well as a solidifying of Russian control over Manchuria means that instead of flailing around in the Balkans to regain national prestige after 1905 (which nearly led to war in 1908 and then did in 1914), the Russians will be playing games against the British for control of China which will seriously threaten any idea of the Triple Entente.

[Coyote]

I wonder if, seeing their Japanese masters getting beaten, the Koreans might stiffen up and resist them. Perhaps get arms from the Russians...

[Prannon]

IIRC, the Revolution of 1905 was initially sparked when the Russian Black Sea fleet mutinied to avoid the fate of the Pacific and Baltic fleets. If Russia had accepted the initial defeat at Port Arthur and kept their other fleets at home while focusing on keeping their armies organized and supplied, then they may have had a chance of outlasting the Japanese. Basically what Duchess says. If Russia averts the Revolution in 1905, keeps their army supplied long enough, and keeps pressing the point, then they win.

So, Russo-Japanese War prolonged? Simple answer: Russians win.

[Sea Skimmer]

The spark of the 1905 revolution was when striking workers were massacred by the Tsars troops as they approached the Winter Palace. The 1905 mutiny in the Black Sea Fleet came much later near the end of the year and after the war had ended. The Black Sea Fleet inherently could not be sent to the Pacific, the Ottomans would never have allowed it through the Bosporus and at the time no treaty existed requiring them to allow passage.