Marriage Equality Support Spike - WTF?

[Pint0 Xtreme]

I just noticed this oddity today.

Poll: Gay marriage support jumps 10 percent in month
By The Associated Press
04.28.2009 3:27pm EDT
(New York City) A new national public opinion poll has found support for same-sex marriage has jumped nearly 10 percent in the past month.

The CBS News/New York Times poll found that 42 percent of Americans believe same-sex couples should have the right to marry. Last month a CBS/Times poll found support at 33 percent.
The new poll is the highest support for gay marriage since CBS news began asking public opinion in 2004 the network said on Tuesday.

The new poll also found that opposition to gay marriage is on a steady decline with 28 percent saying same-sex couples should have no legal rights. Only 25 percent told CBS/Times pollsters that gays should have civil unions but not marriage.

CBS reported that support for gay marriage remains strongest among people who identify as liberals, with 69 percent supporting same-sex marriage.

The poll was conducted among a random sample of 973 adults nationwide and interviewed by telephone between April 22 and 26. The margin of error was plus or minus three percentage points.

The timing of the poll was significant. It came after three key same-sex marriage advances - the Iowa Supreme Court ruling allowing same-sex marriage in that state, the Vermont legislature’s legalizing of gay marriage and the announcement by New York Gov. David Paterson (D) calling for legalized same-sex marriage in that state.

Gay marriage is legal in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont and Iowa. Legislation is before the legislatures in Maine and New Hampshire. In California, the Supreme Court is expected to rule in the coming weeks on the legality of Prop 8 the voter approved measure banning gay marriage in that state.

Iowa’s Supreme Court ruling went into effect Monday with nearly 400 same-sex couples obtaining marriage licenses. Dozens of them were able to find judges willing to waive the state’s three-day waiting and wed.

WTF?? Somebody please tell me if this is an outlier or not...

http://www.pollingreport.com/civil.htm

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/04/27 ... 2643.shtml

[Anguirus]

Maybe Iowa shamed them into it.

[Grandmaster Jogurt]

WTF?? Somebody please tell me if this is an outlier or not...

With a sample size of ~1000, the margin of error should only be +/-3% for a 95% confidence interval. Even if you bring the confidence to 99%, it's still only +/-4%, so it would take last month's results being outside a very tight confidence interval one way and this months' being outside an equally tight interval the opposite way for this to not be a jump of at least a few percentage points.

[Nieztchean Uber-Amoeba]

Looks like those among us predicting that Iowa + Vermont's decisions would be the trigger for the avalanche may have been in the right.

[lance]

WTF?? Somebody please tell me if this is an outlier or not...

With a sample size of ~1000, the margin of error should only be +/-3% for a 95% confidence interval. Even if you bring the confidence to 99%, it's still only +/-4%, so it would take last month's results being outside a very tight confidence interval one way and this months' being outside an equally tight interval the opposite way for this to not be a jump of at least a few percentage points.

So, if this pole is +3-4 and last pole was -3-4 then its up by 1-3% not quite worst case. I have to say yay to this. At this rate by the end of the year America will be as gay as Sweden or France or what ever country the right brings up in these cases.

[Duckie]

One possible thing to note is the aggressive push to change from Gay Marriage to Marriage Equality. Rebranding it is important.

Further, my theory is that public support depends upon CNN's maps. Before, Gay Marriage was a coastal thing. Now a giant hole has been shot in the heartland. The average person will support it if they see it winning. For that we need to collect a few sets of states:
-Heartland, to cut a hole in the heart of the opposition and make the original area eyes focus on have gay marriage (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, etc.)
-Corners- California, Washington, and enough of New England that it doesn't look 'weak' (Vermont needs NH to support it, and Maine will help a lot). This will make it so gay marriage is anywhere you look.
-Big States- California, New York, and central US states, to make it so the states who have gay marriage banned look small and insignificant.

Once those 3 sets are partially or totally completed, I theorize there will be a huge shift in momentum as the average person stops caring. It's all about the psychology of who looks like they're winning on a news graphic.

[Pint0 Xtreme]

Nate Silver's take on it

Two National Polls, for First Time, Show Plurality Support for Gay Marriage
by Nate Silver @ 6:00 PM
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Good news, evidently, comes in twos for the gay rights movement. A pair of new polls shows for the first time a plurality of Americans in support of gay marriage, although they are contradicted by some other recent evidence.

There are two basic types of polls on gay marriage. The first type of poll simply asks the respondent whether or not they approve or disapprove of gay marriage; the second type gives them a three-way choice between gay marriage, civil unions and no legal recognition.

Up until now, according to the database compiled by PollingReport.com, the closest gay marriage had come to achieving a plurality on the first type of poll was from a Time/SRBI survey in August, 2008, in which likely voters were evenly divided 47-47 on their support for gay marriage rights. However, a new poll from ABC News and the Washington Post gives gay marriage an outright plurality, with 49 percent of adults supporting gay marriage and 46 percent opposed.

In the second type of poll -- the "three-way" poll where the respondent may pick civil unions rather than marriage or nothing -- support for gay marriage is typically slightly lower, as about 5-10 percent of respondents appear to have a preference order of civil unions > gay marriage > nothing, where gay marriage is preferred to nothing, but civil unions are preferred to both alternatives. Gay marriage had yet to poll a plurality in this type of survey either -- until this week, when a CBS/NYT poll put support for full marriage rights at 42 percent, versus 25 percent for civil unions and 28 percent for no legal recognition. This represents a significant increase from an identical CBS/NYT poll in March, where the numbers were 33 percent for marriage, 27 percent for civil unions, and 35 percent for no recognition.

Although these polls represent cheerful news for supporters of gay marriage, they are contradicted by some other recent evidence. In particular, a Quinnipiac poll, also released today, had just 38 percent in favor of gay marriage against 55 percent opposed. Quinnipiac did show a 57 percent majority in support of civil unions.

Two other polls on gay marriage had been conducted in December, meanwhile, following the passage of Proposition 8 in California: a CNN poll put support for gay marriage at 44 percent against 55 percent opposed, and a Newsweek poll put support at 39 percent against 55 percent opposed.

In addition, both the CBS/NYT and ABC/Post polls contained a very low number of Republicans, although because that trend has been reflected in several other recent surveys, it is hard to tell whether it is a statistical fluke or represnts some sort of emerging trend.

Personally, I think it is somewhat unlikely that gay marriage has in fact achieved plurality support, although I suspect it has come fairly close, and momentum clearly seems to be on its side. A summary of all gay marriage and civil unions polling since the passage of Proposition 8 follows below.

[Darth Wong]

I find it difficult to believe peoples' attitudes could change so dramatically so quickly. And I think we need to be wary about applying those "margin of error" figures. They are based on assumptions about the representative nature of the sample, the professionalism of the study, the unambiguity of the question, etc.

[Pint0 Xtreme]

I remain pretty skeptical about the CBS poll as well. But as Nate Silver said, even though it's unlikely that there is actual plurality support for same-sex marriage, the momentum is clearly on our side. New Hampshire and Maine are the next state contenders. Hopefully, both bills will pass legalizing same-sex marriage in 5 out of the 6 New England states.

[Slacker]

There's a big push in New York for it as well, legislatively. One or two senators are basically the only thing holding it from happening literally right now as opposed to the next few months-we've got a couple of idiot Democrats that spout the traditional family values line that'll have to be bought off.

[Coyote]

Probably activist groups noted the poll and directed all their partisans to participate?

[neoolong]

Probably activist groups noted the poll and directed all their partisans to participate?

It says its a random sample, so I don't think you can volunteer like that.

[Darth Wong]

Probably activist groups noted the poll and directed all their partisans to participate?

It says its a random sample, so I don't think you can volunteer like that.

No, but unhappy Republicans might be sullen and tend to refuse participation in the survey.

[Duckie]

Well, in news in Maine, supporters of gay marriage outnumbered the opponents 2 or 3-to-1 at a York* town hall, which is tantamount to declaring legislative victory. Now, I must admit, my old home rocks much more than the rest of the state, where gay marriage support is a mere 55 percent or the like.

The Senate passed the gay marriage bill with a near-veto-override amount. The House is expected to pass it too. The Governor, Baldacci, was anti-gay-marriage in 2008 but in January when the bill was proposed he announced he's reconsidering his beliefs.

Unfortunately if Baldacci vetoes, Maine is going to be stonewalled- every Democrat save a pastor already voted for it, and the Republicans are in lockstep. NH looks even less likely if the Governor gets in the way.

*York isn't the capital but it's the most significant town in the south and a huge hotbed of sodomy and gomorrity (whatever gomorrah means)- for the longest time I thought the Maine state flag was 6 fesses, from top to bottom, a fess gules, a fess orange, a fess or, a fess vert, a fess azure, and a fess purpure.

Which is even better, because the capital had a sea of 80% support (they all wore a colour to signify their support) with 4,000 people attending. Maine looks like it could be tipping- they've passed legislatively and had removed via referendum gay rights bills before, but Nate Silver at least thinks that Maine would reject a ban, and with the tepid right wing response and the massive surge of supporters showing up everywhere there, it might just work. If only a single man doesn't gum up the legislature and overrule the government as is usual.

A few other things: If Maine and NH or at least just Maine can get this passed, that'll be another spur on to action for both sides, although Marriage Equality is running out of states that aren't shitholes- I'm imagining in 2010 there will be a few more southern states passing bans, but it's worth it since there's no way in hell they'd pass it or not ban it anyhow.

[Darth Wong]

Again though, does that mean support is on the rise, or does it mean that sullen, whiny, pouty Republicans are withdrawing from politics and hiding in their delusional Michigan militia anti-government SPARTAFREEDOMERICA lunatic world?

[Mr Bean]

Again though, does that mean support is on the rise, or does it mean that sullen, whiny, pouty Republicans are withdrawing from politics and hiding in their delusional Michigan militia anti-government SPARTAFREEDOMERICA lunatic world?

...No please... no Mike... oh damnit it Mike why do you have to use that phrase. A Shroomian phrase no less. The debate and question aside since the board owner has now used SPARTAFREEDOMERICA it's officially in the lexicon here, and worse what starts here ends up in all of Canada. So the next time I go aboard to the frozen north I be forced to deal with ever so polite people asking how SPARTAFREEDOMERICA is doing these days and if Democracy has broken out yet here or it's still a few years off.

How will we SPARTAFREEDOMERICA's live this down?
I honestly don't think we can....



That said, this is a simple issue, they are dieing off in greater numbers. Republican support comes a few highly specific areas, when the populations of those groups decline the Republicans fall in turn. What is happening now is the Republicans are becoming Dixiecans. Much like the white southern mostly racist Dixiecrats of the 1940s-1970s there vote areas are solidly based around areas where it's mostly White, and mostly southern. Or southern influenced such as Ohio. When those influences decline the part must either evolve or die. The only question is if the Republicans are going to go the route of the Whigs and slowly die out over the next twenty years and some new party takes it's place(Bull-Moose MK II?) or if they die out and the Democratic Part tears itself a part twenty years from now to form the new second party.

[Havok]

Again though, does that mean support is on the rise, or does it mean that sullen, whiny, pouty Republicans are withdrawing from politics and hiding in their delusional Michigan militia anti-government SPARTAFREEDOMERICA lunatic world?

Good. Then the rest of us rational people can get on with getting this country actually into the 21st Century with regards to these issues. Let 'em eat canned bean in their shelters.

[Pint0 Xtreme]

It's immensely frustrating. Every single time where there is a legislature willing to legalize same-sex marriage, there is a governor willing to stand in its way (Vermont). And where there is a governor willing to sign a same-sex marriage bill, there is a legislature that is less than willing to make it a reality (New York).

[Themightytom]

It's immensely frustrating. Every single time where there is a legislature willing to legalize same-sex marriage, there is a governor willing to stand in its way (Vermont). And where there is a governor willing to sign a same-sex marriage bill, there is a legislature that is less than willing to make it a reality (New York).

Wow that is as true as anything I've ever heard, that is exactly like the situation here in NH. On the other ahnd i think whenever there is a mass stampede of opinion from one side to the other its because vocal minorities are dictating the response rather than a consistent deep set belief shared by the masses. under Bush's regime dissention was squashed, and one vocal minority had less influence than the other.

note my wording, one group had less INFLUENCE, they did NOT have less to say. I really respect my coworker who is our political advocate, she has walked up to the governor at award luncheons and functions and what not and challenged him on some of these issues. its a little hard for him to use the classic defenses as she is a nun.

people like her are probably why he will let the bill pass into law unsigned rather than veto it.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/new_ha ... nh_senate/

[Shroom Man 777]

Looks like SPARTAFREEDOMERICA is losing ground to those boy-loving Athenians in the Homoponnesian War.

Even if the Republicans are just being emo about having an uppity black man in power and having their wet dreams backfire and turn into their worst nightmare, isn't this still progress? After segregation was put down, you could say that the white supremacists also got pouty and sullen and stopped answering Gallup surveys and holed up in their Klanlands as well, allowing a more progressive society to leave them in the dust.

(Of course, the white supremacists didn't just shut up and things did get violent, but that was ultimately detrimental to their deranged cause.)

The same could be happening now that brave Leonidas has fallen and they're shutting up, the Persian hordes will definitely take advantage of this lull.