Demographics for a colony ship
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Battlehymn Republic
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Demographics for a colony ship
Suppose you were to send 5,000 to 10,000 colonists in cryosleep to a far-off near-Earth type biosphere within 50 years (yes, lots of handwavium here), and Earth was about to die. Think Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri. What kind of colonists would you send in terms of age, ethnicity, ability, etc.?
Re: Demographics for a colony ship
In terms of age? Pretty simple. Only those in the 20 - 30 bracket, with exceptions (obviously an extremely fit 40 year old with extensive survival experience or military training would be exempt, that sort of deal), as it's the optimal age to establish a settlement from. It also allows a good range of experiences and skills, especially with the above exception for valuable individuals.
Ethnicity? Asians, purely because they tend to be smaller and thus you could pack more into a ship.
Ability? Well, take the most qualified individuals in vital fields. Basic metallurgy, mining, mechanical repair, farming, all are vital skills for a new world. Take some scientists, but not too many - perhaps 1/10 of the entire population, at most, if only because their skills might be able to be used in other fields to answer questions resulting from the new conditions of life.
Toss in some genetic screening for maximum genetic health of the initial gene pool, and voila.
Ethnicity? Asians, purely because they tend to be smaller and thus you could pack more into a ship.
Ability? Well, take the most qualified individuals in vital fields. Basic metallurgy, mining, mechanical repair, farming, all are vital skills for a new world. Take some scientists, but not too many - perhaps 1/10 of the entire population, at most, if only because their skills might be able to be used in other fields to answer questions resulting from the new conditions of life.
Toss in some genetic screening for maximum genetic health of the initial gene pool, and voila.
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Coyote
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Re: Demographics for a colony ship
A breakdown that reflects the actual population of the planet.... not that it would matter. With that small a population (the size of a small Midwest town) and no where else to go but their own community, the ethnicities will all be interbred within a couple hundred years.
Something about Libertarianism always bothered me. Then one day, I realized what it was:
Libertarian philosophy can be boiled down to the phrase, "Work Will Make You Free."
In Libertarianism, there is no Government, so the Bosses are free to exploit the Workers.
In Communism, there is no Government, so the Workers are free to exploit the Bosses.
So in Libertarianism, man exploits man, but in Communism, its the other way around!
If all you want to do is have some harmless, mindless fun, go H3RE INST3ADZ0RZ!!
Grrr! Fight my Brute, you pansy!
Libertarian philosophy can be boiled down to the phrase, "Work Will Make You Free."
In Libertarianism, there is no Government, so the Bosses are free to exploit the Workers.
In Communism, there is no Government, so the Workers are free to exploit the Bosses.
So in Libertarianism, man exploits man, but in Communism, its the other way around!
If all you want to do is have some harmless, mindless fun, go H3RE INST3ADZ0RZ!!
Grrr! Fight my Brute, you pansy!
Re: Demographics for a colony ship
I'd recruit the colonist purely based on knowledge and skills necessary to maintain a technological civilization until they get the numbers up.
As far as the ethnicities are concerned, great care must be taken that the colonists are either:
a) All from one homogeneous ethnic/cultural group; or
b) From ethnic/cultural groups that have no history of animosity or conflict with each other whatsoever. The last thing we need is historical baggage causing trouble for the expedition. For example: Swiss + Indians + Brazilians = OK; Palestinians + Israelis + Germans + Russians = Not OK
Beyond that, I’d make sure that the colonists take with them as many frozen embryos from as many different genetic backgrounds as possible, in the tens or hundreds of thousands if available, with the necessary technology and know-how to use them.
As far as the ethnicities are concerned, great care must be taken that the colonists are either:
a) All from one homogeneous ethnic/cultural group; or
b) From ethnic/cultural groups that have no history of animosity or conflict with each other whatsoever. The last thing we need is historical baggage causing trouble for the expedition. For example: Swiss + Indians + Brazilians = OK; Palestinians + Israelis + Germans + Russians = Not OK
Beyond that, I’d make sure that the colonists take with them as many frozen embryos from as many different genetic backgrounds as possible, in the tens or hundreds of thousands if available, with the necessary technology and know-how to use them.
Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.
Salvor Hardin, Isaac Asimov "Bridle and Saddle" (aka "The Mayors", in Foundation), 1942.
Salvor Hardin, Isaac Asimov "Bridle and Saddle" (aka "The Mayors", in Foundation), 1942.
Re: Demographics for a colony ship
Hmmmmm...
First, I screen out genetic diseases. That would limit me right there.
Next, I screen based on positive genetics. i.e Disease resistance.
Next, I screen based on skills.
Next, I screen based on age.
Next, I screen based on psychological elements.
Whatever results, is what is going.
Depending, I'd be very tempted to go the '10,000 colonist, 500,000+ embryo' route. Every 2 years, hatch a new batch of embryo's to raise into the colony.
However, that would be for people more qualified then me to figure out the dynamics of.
First, I screen out genetic diseases. That would limit me right there.
Next, I screen based on positive genetics. i.e Disease resistance.
Next, I screen based on skills.
Next, I screen based on age.
Next, I screen based on psychological elements.
Whatever results, is what is going.
Depending, I'd be very tempted to go the '10,000 colonist, 500,000+ embryo' route. Every 2 years, hatch a new batch of embryo's to raise into the colony.
However, that would be for people more qualified then me to figure out the dynamics of.
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It's so when they comment on or approve of something, I know what pages to block/what not to vote for.
It's so when they comment on or approve of something, I know what pages to block/what not to vote for.
Re: Demographics for a colony ship
I can think of lots of other issues. If you get selected, do you get to bring along your spouse and kids? How is the selection process organized? Who does the choosing? Is the process secret or is the draft televised? If Earth is truly going to die, you can expect that desperate/insane people everywhere will organize attempts to hijack or blow up the spaceship before it is launched. If its a truly international endeavor, like the ISS, you can expect that the most powerful participating nations will demand the right to select their own 'delegates' for the mission. You can expect that desperate billionaires will offer to donate their fortunes to the project in exchange for a 'seat' on the ship.
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Battlehymn Republic
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Re: Demographics for a colony ship
Excellent considerations. I myself am not sure how you would avoid taking entire families to the trip, because the colonists would surely despair without their loved ones. Sure, you can try to find a lot of singles or childless couples, but this is still difficult.
Re: Demographics for a colony ship
If you can bring frozen embryos along, pick mostly young, healthy, fertile women with the right skills and knowledge and make it a requirement that they bear some number of children using the frozen embryos, which were screened for genetic diversity and lack of genetic problems.
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SDNW4 Nation: The Refuge And, on Nova Terra, Al-Stan the Totally and Completely Honest and Legitimate Weapons Dealer and Used Starship Salesman slept on a bed made of money, with a blaster under his pillow and his sombrero pulled over his face. This is to say, he slept very well indeed.
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Guardsman Bass
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Re: Demographics for a colony ship
I assumed we were simply handwaving away all the issues of selection and construction concerning the starship with regards to assembling it in the middle of a great collapse on Earth.
In any case, here are my requirements (and I'm assuming a world basically like Chiron from Alpha Centauri, sans mindworms, sentient planet, etc):
1. Mixed male-female, preferably in couples that are married or partnered for a long-time. Some extended families of siblings might be good (it improves social stability, AFAIK), but you can't take that too far unless you want to limit your genetic diversity.
2. Mixed range of ages, from early-to-mid twenties up to late-thirties/early-forties. There's a risk in reducing your total heavily fertile population, but unless you have been training all of your colonists from their early youth, I don't see how you could get all the specialists you'll need without them.
3. Preferably no children, since they'll largely just be extra mouths to feed from the get-go, and they take away space on ship from other personnel needs. This might be an issue with some of the older couples, but then again, childlessness is rising, so maybe not. Plus, the younger couples will almost guarantee that children will be born on the new world as soon as they get settled.
4. Group isolation and training, preferably in a "demo-colony" in Antarctica. Isolation and "cabin fever" like crap are probably not going to be an issue in a group that big, but it can only help. Not to mention that this might actually be somewhat useful, if you are heading off to a near-Earth planet (in Chiron's case, they couldn't breath the atmosphere due to low oxygen levels, but the environment was good enough that they could walk around in normal clothing with light masks).
5. Comprehensive group of skills, including operating mining equipment (and the making of it), operating farms (and making the tools and products necessary to sustain them - in Chiron's case, the soil was apparently paradise for earth plants, but you may not be so lucky on another world), operating machinery, small industry (including the ability to make the masks and shelters, and whatever survival equipment is a must-have in the case of the colony), and of course all the services a new colony will require, like doctors and so forth.
In fact, I almost wonder if that size population would be enough to sustain a technological civilization in the short-term (long enough for the population to grow bigger), considering the loss of economies of scale. Even assuming they breed quickly, that's still a small population, and they will require a lot of specialists in order to maintain a decent technological status on-site.
6. Extensive screening for heritable diseases and genetic risks of birth defects in children, conditions like alcoholism and the like, sociopathic tendencies (although don't take that too far), and heavy screening for criminal behavior.
7. I don't particularly care about the ethnicity as long as it doesn't produce long-lasting bitterness on-board or on-site, but try to get as much genetic diversity as possible, particularly in the twenties-age group.
In any case, here are my requirements (and I'm assuming a world basically like Chiron from Alpha Centauri, sans mindworms, sentient planet, etc):
1. Mixed male-female, preferably in couples that are married or partnered for a long-time. Some extended families of siblings might be good (it improves social stability, AFAIK), but you can't take that too far unless you want to limit your genetic diversity.
2. Mixed range of ages, from early-to-mid twenties up to late-thirties/early-forties. There's a risk in reducing your total heavily fertile population, but unless you have been training all of your colonists from their early youth, I don't see how you could get all the specialists you'll need without them.
3. Preferably no children, since they'll largely just be extra mouths to feed from the get-go, and they take away space on ship from other personnel needs. This might be an issue with some of the older couples, but then again, childlessness is rising, so maybe not. Plus, the younger couples will almost guarantee that children will be born on the new world as soon as they get settled.
4. Group isolation and training, preferably in a "demo-colony" in Antarctica. Isolation and "cabin fever" like crap are probably not going to be an issue in a group that big, but it can only help. Not to mention that this might actually be somewhat useful, if you are heading off to a near-Earth planet (in Chiron's case, they couldn't breath the atmosphere due to low oxygen levels, but the environment was good enough that they could walk around in normal clothing with light masks).
5. Comprehensive group of skills, including operating mining equipment (and the making of it), operating farms (and making the tools and products necessary to sustain them - in Chiron's case, the soil was apparently paradise for earth plants, but you may not be so lucky on another world), operating machinery, small industry (including the ability to make the masks and shelters, and whatever survival equipment is a must-have in the case of the colony), and of course all the services a new colony will require, like doctors and so forth.
In fact, I almost wonder if that size population would be enough to sustain a technological civilization in the short-term (long enough for the population to grow bigger), considering the loss of economies of scale. Even assuming they breed quickly, that's still a small population, and they will require a lot of specialists in order to maintain a decent technological status on-site.
6. Extensive screening for heritable diseases and genetic risks of birth defects in children, conditions like alcoholism and the like, sociopathic tendencies (although don't take that too far), and heavy screening for criminal behavior.
7. I don't particularly care about the ethnicity as long as it doesn't produce long-lasting bitterness on-board or on-site, but try to get as much genetic diversity as possible, particularly in the twenties-age group.
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-Margaret Atwood
-Jean-Luc Picard
"Men are afraid that women will laugh at them. Women are afraid that men will kill them."
-Margaret Atwood
Re: Demographics for a colony ship
Depends a lot on what the tech level will be when they get there. If they have nanofacturing stuff, that's one thing; but if we're going with the Heinleinesque/Firefly model of "horses are easier to keep going than tractors", that's a very different skill set. (You need to bring lots of livestock and other Earth species anyway, in the frozen embryo/seed/egg stage, because the native life probably won't match our nutritional requirements exactly.)
I'm assuming the latter, personally, since you say 50 years away - and keeping high tech stuff across the board running might be too difficult for a small colony. You'd probably end up with a mix of high and low tech, but that's not really a problem - the needs might be different anyway. A lot of the tech we use just to keep big cities alive (all the transportation of mass quantities of food/water, mass communications...) wouldn't be needed in a small settlement.
Genetic diversity won't be too much of an issue as long as you're not purposely stupid about it ; 5000-10000 is huge for a human founder population. (There was a study suggesting all Native Americans may be descended from as few as 70-100 people...) Still, you'll want a wide mix - but just picking everybody best qualified in other ways should give you that. (Since you'll want farmers, it won't even be heavily slanted towards the industrialized nations...) However, I'd try not to get too many feuds (lots of Israelis/Palestinians, lots of Hutu/Tutsis, whatever); it might be best just to pick from Brazil, the US, & other such countries with a multiethnic population which already lives together. However, if Earth is dying, this would get you in big trouble...
But main criteria:
-No genetic disorders, BUT be careful when defining 'disorders'. Definitely bring people with things like high-functioning autism & other mental issues that can increase intelligence - apparently a lot of history's geniuses fell into these categories. Some of the things that are an advantage when heterozygous, a disorder when homozygous, might fit too, but most of those protect against *specific* diseases so wouldn't be a help on another planet.
-Age? Definitely *slanted* towards the 18-30 range, but not 100% by any means; I'd want experienced people & experts in their fields too. Maybe 85% younger, 15% older, with most of those being in technical fields.
-Abilities? Lots of farmers, but mostly those who are used to farming with hand tools and wagons, not with giant machines and gallons of chemicals. The resources of modern agribusiness won't be available at least for the first few generations. People with more 'primitive' craft skills: metalworking with non-mechanized tools, training and working with workhorses,rope making, weaving, pottery, glassmaking. People who can make all the necessities of civilized life without machine aid or computer plans. Some of these skills may be mostly found among historical reenactors and hobbyists these days, but at least the farm-related ones should be obtainable in rural areas of less developed nations.
Then a significant number of scientists - we need to keep a living strand of knowledge, the *techniques* of science, not just facts in a database. Some people with leadership skills.
Then comes the tricky part - should we leave out military skills in hopes that it'll help a more peaceful society develop? Or do we need them to defend us? Are we sure there's no intelligent life? (If we *are*, I would say to leave out military skills - but still bring people who are good at hunting and such in case of dangerous predators.) What about arts - how do we pick what artists to bring? We do need *some*, or a whole segment of human culture will die. What about spiritual and religious matters? What kind of society are we trying to build anyway? These are the really hard questions.
On the other hand, 5000-10000 people is plenty to give us some leeway, so we can include a little of everything. The really hard choices are when you try to do it with 50 or 100 (though it could still be done...)
A society that size can't use the government models we have in the large nations - so what sort of government do we want? Do we want to be careful about bringing charismatic/demagogue type people? I think the most *functional* society under these circumstances would not be one that we 21st century westerners would like...
I'm assuming the latter, personally, since you say 50 years away - and keeping high tech stuff across the board running might be too difficult for a small colony. You'd probably end up with a mix of high and low tech, but that's not really a problem - the needs might be different anyway. A lot of the tech we use just to keep big cities alive (all the transportation of mass quantities of food/water, mass communications...) wouldn't be needed in a small settlement.
Genetic diversity won't be too much of an issue as long as you're not purposely stupid about it ; 5000-10000 is huge for a human founder population. (There was a study suggesting all Native Americans may be descended from as few as 70-100 people...) Still, you'll want a wide mix - but just picking everybody best qualified in other ways should give you that. (Since you'll want farmers, it won't even be heavily slanted towards the industrialized nations...) However, I'd try not to get too many feuds (lots of Israelis/Palestinians, lots of Hutu/Tutsis, whatever); it might be best just to pick from Brazil, the US, & other such countries with a multiethnic population which already lives together. However, if Earth is dying, this would get you in big trouble...
But main criteria:
-No genetic disorders, BUT be careful when defining 'disorders'. Definitely bring people with things like high-functioning autism & other mental issues that can increase intelligence - apparently a lot of history's geniuses fell into these categories. Some of the things that are an advantage when heterozygous, a disorder when homozygous, might fit too, but most of those protect against *specific* diseases so wouldn't be a help on another planet.
-Age? Definitely *slanted* towards the 18-30 range, but not 100% by any means; I'd want experienced people & experts in their fields too. Maybe 85% younger, 15% older, with most of those being in technical fields.
-Abilities? Lots of farmers, but mostly those who are used to farming with hand tools and wagons, not with giant machines and gallons of chemicals. The resources of modern agribusiness won't be available at least for the first few generations. People with more 'primitive' craft skills: metalworking with non-mechanized tools, training and working with workhorses,rope making, weaving, pottery, glassmaking. People who can make all the necessities of civilized life without machine aid or computer plans. Some of these skills may be mostly found among historical reenactors and hobbyists these days, but at least the farm-related ones should be obtainable in rural areas of less developed nations.
Then a significant number of scientists - we need to keep a living strand of knowledge, the *techniques* of science, not just facts in a database. Some people with leadership skills.
Then comes the tricky part - should we leave out military skills in hopes that it'll help a more peaceful society develop? Or do we need them to defend us? Are we sure there's no intelligent life? (If we *are*, I would say to leave out military skills - but still bring people who are good at hunting and such in case of dangerous predators.) What about arts - how do we pick what artists to bring? We do need *some*, or a whole segment of human culture will die. What about spiritual and religious matters? What kind of society are we trying to build anyway? These are the really hard questions.
On the other hand, 5000-10000 people is plenty to give us some leeway, so we can include a little of everything. The really hard choices are when you try to do it with 50 or 100 (though it could still be done...)
A society that size can't use the government models we have in the large nations - so what sort of government do we want? Do we want to be careful about bringing charismatic/demagogue type people? I think the most *functional* society under these circumstances would not be one that we 21st century westerners would like...
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Eden Trilogy by Harry Harrison
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War Planets
Mission of Gravity/Star Light by Hal Clement
Midworld by Alan Dean Foster
Eden Trilogy by Harry Harrison
Favorite sci-fi TV series:
War Planets
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Guardsman Bass
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Re: Demographics for a colony ship
That's something I didn't even think about. Good point.Vultur wrote:Depends a lot on what the tech level will be when they get there. If they have nanofacturing stuff, that's one thing; but if we're going with the Heinleinesque/Firefly model of "horses are easier to keep going than tractors", that's a very different skill set. (You need to bring lots of livestock and other Earth species anyway, in the frozen embryo/seed/egg stage, because the native life probably won't match our nutritional requirements exactly.)
It depends on how "near-Earth" the planet actually is. In the case used in the OP (the case of Planet/Chiron), the oxygen concentration in the atmosphere was too low for humans to breath without some type of light mask, but plants from earth more or less thrived in the soil and atmosphere, making agriculture easy. At the very least, you'd need the capability to make your breath-masks.I'm assuming the latter, personally, since you say 50 years away - and keeping high tech stuff across the board running might be too difficult for a small colony. You'd probably end up with a mix of high and low tech, but that's not really a problem - the needs might be different anyway. A lot of the tech we use just to keep big cities alive (all the transportation of mass quantities of food/water, mass communications...) wouldn't be needed in a small settlement.
It depends on who is funding the expedition, I suppose. In any case, I was focusing solely on the demographics, and handwaving the obvious issues associated with organizing such an expedition in the "dying earth" scenario hypothesized.Genetic diversity won't be too much of an issue as long as you're not purposely stupid about it ; 5000-10000 is huge for a human founder population. (There was a study suggesting all Native Americans may be descended from as few as 70-100 people...) Still, you'll want a wide mix - but just picking everybody best qualified in other ways should give you that. (Since you'll want farmers, it won't even be heavily slanted towards the industrialized nations...) However, I'd try not to get too many feuds (lots of Israelis/Palestinians, lots of Hutu/Tutsis, whatever); it might be best just to pick from Brazil, the US, & other such countries with a multiethnic population which already lives together. However, if Earth is dying, this would get you in big trouble...
You basically need enough young people (and couples, but particularly young women) in order to get a decent birth rate going to sustain and grow the colony. That would seem to call for a mix of a relatively young group (twenties) with an older group consisting of administration and some specialists.-Age? Definitely *slanted* towards the 18-30 range, but not 100% by any means; I'd want experienced people & experts in their fields too. Maybe 85% younger, 15% older, with most of those being in technical fields.
I'd leave out the artists and the musicians, or have them "double" in other roles (in the "Alpha Centauri" case, Miriam apparently doubled as the "psych chaplain", which sounds like some cross between a priest and a shipboard psychiatrist). You're going to get artists and musicians appearing anyways, once the population gets settled to the point where they can feed them.Then comes the tricky part - should we leave out military skills in hopes that it'll help a more peaceful society develop? Or do we need them to defend us? Are we sure there's no intelligent life? (If we *are*, I would say to leave out military skills - but still bring people who are good at hunting and such in case of dangerous predators.) What about arts - how do we pick what artists to bring? We do need *some*, or a whole segment of human culture will die. What about spiritual and religious matters? What kind of society are we trying to build anyway? These are the really hard questions.
As for the "military skills", with a population that size, you'll at least need a group of people trained to do some kind of law enforcement, particularly in an environment where you may or may not be able to survive completely exposed.
It depends on how survivable the world is, and how concentrated your colony is. If the world doesn't need strict control for the colony to survive, then I could see them developing something like a cross between direct democracy and a current democratic city government. Eventually, at least - presumably the early years would be under the control of the mission officers.A society that size can't use the government models we have in the large nations - so what sort of government do we want? Do we want to be careful about bringing charismatic/demagogue type people? I think the most *functional* society under these circumstances would not be one that we 21st century westerners would like...
“It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life.”
-Jean-Luc Picard
"Men are afraid that women will laugh at them. Women are afraid that men will kill them."
-Margaret Atwood
-Jean-Luc Picard
"Men are afraid that women will laugh at them. Women are afraid that men will kill them."
-Margaret Atwood
Re: Demographics for a colony ship
I don't think such a colony would be uncomfortable for westerners. 10,000 people is enough for a good sized town. That many people could easily maintain at least a victorian era level of technology. probably an early 20th century level really. With modern understanding of medicine ,decent legacy tech and lacking the social inequities of the past that lifestyle could be very pleasant. It could also expand at a very comfortable rate of the colonists choosing.
For I dipt into the future, far as human eye could see,
Saw the Vision of the world, and all the wonder that would be;
Saw the heavens fill with commerce, argosies of magic sails,
Pilots of the purple twilight dropping down with costly bales;
Heard the heavens fill with shouting, and there rain'd a ghastly dew
From the nations' airy navies grappling in the central blue;
Saw the Vision of the world, and all the wonder that would be;
Saw the heavens fill with commerce, argosies of magic sails,
Pilots of the purple twilight dropping down with costly bales;
Heard the heavens fill with shouting, and there rain'd a ghastly dew
From the nations' airy navies grappling in the central blue;
Re: Demographics for a colony ship
One thing I have not seen mentioned when screening is religious/cultural issues, and morality in particular. What will the tech level be on the new planet? What challenges will the colonists face? If there is a large loss of life among the men (assuming no stored embryos) how will the women get pregnant if the morality mandates one man/one woman? I think something along Heinlein's line family, or any mix of polygamy/polyandry as required to maintain population while still growing the colony. Just because the planet is 'Earth like' does not mean it will be easy. I would assume that with 50 years travel the system is not well scanned.