Automobile What If

[montypython]

If the automobile had remained something strictly for the well-to-do (i.e, upper middle class or higher) from the pre-WWI period onward to the present day, how would this have affected urban and infrastructure development from that point onward?

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

If the automobile had remained something strictly for the well-to-do (i.e, upper middle class or higher) from the pre-WWI period onward to the present day, how would this have affected urban and infrastructure development from that point onward?

This is one of those difficult-to-answer questions, as the sort of circumstances that would make automobiles remain a toy of the rich would drastically alter the landscape by themselves. About the only way you could do it is if the world were much less awash in oil as it was in those days. And if it were, then you'd not have as great a Green Revolution as you did in the OTL, which means we could afford to feed fewer people than we can now, and the explosive industrialization of the 20th century simply wouldn't happen. Not to the scale it did. What this means is that the urban/infrastructure model would likely track closely with what it was at the end of the 19th century and the dawn of the 20th.

[Sea Skimmer]

Instead of building hoards of paved roads, everyone would just build hoards of suburb tramlines and commuter rail lines. Some would just have very low axle load limits; others would be narrow gauge to reduce costs. Urban sprawl would still occur just in a more linear manner. The lines move people during the day and freight at night, dropping it off at a million minor sidings.

This is pretty much what everyone was doing until 1914 anyway. France for example was well along in a plan to connect every town and village over about 1,000 people by rail at the time, but then cars and the War kicked the plan in the teeth. Lots of minor tracks were taken up in France, the UK, Germany and the US during the war to provide rails for military lines and the damage was never really undone even though cars didn’t become common for decades longer.

[Tolya]

It's not only difficult to answer such a question, but also even more difficult to imagine how could that happen.

However, since "HOW" is not the matter of this topic, I'll just skip to "WHAT".

First thing is that automobiles wouldn't be as technologically advanced as today. Since it would be an upper-class toy, I doubt it would generate enough revenue for the car industry to invest in technological advancement. So my guess is that present day automobiles would be about as technologically complex as WWII cars.

As for the infrastructure I think Skimmer and Terwynn summed it up pretty good.

Also, no Top Gear. Maybe Top Rail in that place. Sad stuff.

[PeZook]

Also, no mass production of cheap cars = no wide scale mechanized warfare, which actually runs on trucks more than tanks.

[Tolya]

Also, no mass production of cheap cars = no wide scale mechanized warfare, which actually runs on trucks more than tanks.

Cars and tanks aren't actually that far apart in technological terms, so it begs a question, could we have tanks without cars? Also, without cheap trucks no army would have logistical capabilities of supporting a sizeable tank force in the field. But that's going a bit OT.

[Starglider]

Note that lack of oil on its own wouldn't be a showstopper; industrial nations would simply deploy coal-to-oil on a massive scale, along with direct use of coal dust (in steam cars to start with, probably for large trucks later), methane powered cars (natural gas or coal gas) and electric cars. Fuel costs would be higher and car travel might be a bit less convenient, but there would probably still be at least half as many vehicles as in reality.

[CaptainChewbacca]

If there wasn't oil, another alternative would be the Electrobat, the first ever electric car invented in 1894. Limited utility, but if we'd put our effort into making THAT work instead of internal combustion, we'd probably be further along in electric car technology than we are currently.