The Principality of Zeon in Enterprise era Trekverse

[Sidewinder]

They are going to have to deploy significant fleet assets to defend the colony cylinders from sneak-attacks anyway, so they might choose to allow the UE to deploy more ships to observe them. This would make said ships easier to find.

This is a defeatist strategy. Unless each and every one of the United Earth's military and political leaders are criminally incompetent, Starfleet's advantages in FTL propulsion, communications, and sensors allow it to completely and utterly dictate the terms of battle. (Don't give me bullshit like "Starfleet doesn't have FTL comms and sensors," the UESPA and the Novans did not wait 20 years for each message to cross the distance between Earth and Terra Nova, and the way warp drives work in Star Trek means it's downright suicide to go to warp w/out sensors that work at FTL speeds.)

Really, the only way the Principality can beat the UES is if it immediately launches an all out attack to cripple each and every one of Starfleet's command, communication, and shipbuilding facilities, in addition to each and every one of Starfleet's vessels- extremely unlikely, as Zeon warships need months, if not years to get from Earth to Jupiter Station.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

This is a defeatist strategy. Unless each and every one of the United Earth's military and political leaders are criminally incompetent, Starfleet's advantages in FTL propulsion, communications, and sensors allow it to completely and utterly dictate the terms of battle. (Don't give me bullshit like "Starfleet doesn't have FTL comms and sensors," the UESPA and the Novans did not wait 20 years for each message to cross the distance between Earth and Terra Nova, and the way warp drives work in Star Trek means it's downright suicide to go to warp w/out sensors that work at FTL speeds.)

I never tried to claim otherwise. Unlike some of the debaters I've encountered over the years, I do understand that FTL sensors are needed for safe FTL travel.

Really, the only way the Principality can beat the UES is if it immediately launches an all out attack to cripple each and every one of Starfleet's command, communication, and shipbuilding facilities, in addition to each and every one of Starfleet's vessels- extremely unlikely, as Zeon warships need months, if not years to get from Earth to Jupiter Station.

This was pretty much my thinking. This scenario is difficult to declare either way. The perfect Zeon outcome would be as follows:

1) Zeon fleet attacks Earth in force, destroys all warp-capable starships, destroys any hostile orbitals, and captures the shipyards intact, including the partially-constructed NX-class ships. Zeon personnel take control of the Verteron array using Paxton's base. Warp-capable ships will also have been captured or coopted, and will be used to reinforce Mars.
2) Zeon offers amnesty to any and all nations who will accept Zeon leadership, and most if not all acquiesce without resistance. Resisting nations are defeated. Zeon has effective control within six-months to a year. By this point, Mars has been reinforced.
3) Earth's warp scientists and engineers prove cooperative, granting Zeon warp capability and helping either to refit existing vessels or design new ones. The new Zeon regime is thus secure against external opponents.

The first thing that can go wrong is that one or more warp-capable ships avoid destruction. The NX class vessels Enterprise and Columbia are the most likely candidates, being the most capable vessels. It may also prove difficult to take the shipyards or the semi-constructed ships intact, especially if the yard personnel are in a self-sacrificing mood. Things can also go horribly wrong if they don't grab the Verteron array.
In the second stage, anything could happen. The timeframe (and likelihood of success in the extreme) of conquest is dependant on how many nations choose to fight. This will depend on the wider political situation on Earth, and on how well Zeon exploits it. The more nations resists, the longer conquest will take.
The third stage is a complete unknown. Like the second stage, it depends on the effectiveness of Zeon PR. Colony drops, assuming they were practical, might not be a good idea in this context. If the scientists cooperate, Zeon will have warp capability much faster than if they have to research it for themselves. We have no effective time-frame in any case.

Bearing in mind warp capability, it is fairly likely that one of the NX class will survive, unless they charge straight at the Zeon fleet and get blasted. If we apply character shield, the survivor will be Enterprise. The survivor has four options:

1) Fight on, get worn down and destroyed. They might have FTL, but one ship will not be able to apply sufficient force on its own. In theory, FTL allows this ship to fight only at the right moments, but Zeon's response will be to ensure that there are no or at least very few right moments (maintain sensor discipline, no ships travelling alone, etc). This will limit Zeon's strategic flexibility, but is unlikely to be enough to make a difference.

2) Launch a guerilla campaign using Jupiter station as a base. This is doable until such time as Zeon acquires warp-capable warships. This option is workable, but unlikely to be successful on its own, for the same reasons as option 1.

3) Make a grab for the Verteron array. Not to be advised, considering the Verteron array is capable of targeting starships. The base itself will contain as many Zeon soldiers as possible (capacity not stated) along with whatever support weapons or vehicles they could squeeze in (from the looks of it, not likely to be much. Even if they dismantle a mobile suit, it will have to be reassembled at length). Since Enterprise will only have MACOs and Security officers to put up against Zeon soldiers, a ground attack will probably fail.

4) Warp out of the system, head for Vulcan or Andoria and scale up some reinforcements. Probably the best option available, for what one warp-capable ship cannot achieve, many can. If the Enterprise avoids Zeon forces early on, they have no means of preventing it from escaping the system (so long as they give the Verteron array a wide berth). The challenge will be in persuading the Vulcans or Andorians (Earth might not have formal relations, but Archer has some credibility on Andoria after P'Jem, and Shran likes him) to help. As before, this could be taken either way. Without their help, Archer can do nothing. With their help, Zeon is pretty much done for.

This was intended to show the difficulty in declaring either way. Starfleets FTL advantage can be arguably balanced out by Zeon's numerical advantage, then again, we might argue otherwise. Starfleet's only undeniable advantage is its FTL capability, thus it becomes a question of whether Starfleet has the numbers and/or destructive force necessary to make a difference.

[Jade Owl]

This was intended to show the difficulty in declaring either way. Starfleets FTL advantage can be arguably balanced out by Zeon's numerical advantage, then again, we might argue otherwise. Starfleet's only undeniable advantage is its FTL capability, thus it becomes a question of whether Starfleet has the numbers and/or destructive force necessary to make a difference.

I'd argue that the Verteron array is the other advantage. As you said, in other to have a chance Zeon would have to launch an all out assault on the UE as soon as possible, which I doubt would leave room for negotiations with Terra Prime. Without that they have no means of getting to the Verteron array before the UE uses their O’Neill cylinder for target practice. And then they'd be screwed.

And I just realized that there's another factor that we haven’t considered in the Zeon/Terra Prime interaction: the fact that in the Star Trek universe there’s a ridiculous amount of aliens that look externally indistinguishable from humans. Given Terra Prime’s level of xenophobia it would take significant convincing and ample genetic testing to convince Paxton and his ilk that this wasn’t just some bunch of aliens trying to pull a fast one. Especially so soon after the Xindi Crisis. And given the tight time constraint Zeon is under to successfully pull off a victory, that’s a kind of time they don’t have. If they launch any kind of attack before securing the Verteron array, they’d be at Starfleet’s mercy. Zeon cannot win unless they secure Paxton’s cooperation first. This is a condition without which they have no possibility of victory.

[Sidewinder]

This scenario is difficult to declare either way. The perfect Zeon outcome would be as follows:

1) Zeon fleet attacks Earth in force, destroys all warp-capable starships, destroys any hostile orbitals, and captures the shipyards intact, including the partially-constructed NX-class ships. Zeon personnel take control of the Verteron array using Paxton's base. Warp-capable ships will also have been captured or coopted, and will be used to reinforce Mars.

This is impossible because are at least four warp-capable freighters under the Earth Cargo Service, and at least one under the Earth Science Institute. The fastest of them can only reach warp 2, but this means at least one is beyond the Zeon forces' reach when the Principality launches its attack.

2) Zeon offers amnesty to any and all nations who will accept Zeon leadership, and most if not all acquiesce without resistance. Resisting nations are defeated. Zeon has effective control within six-months to a year. By this point, Mars has been reinforced.

It'll be downright impossible for significant numbers of nations to acquiesce w/out resistance to the Principality, unless you magically replace the entire Zeon military and political leadership w/ people who will not indiscriminately kill 2.8 billion non-combatants in one day.

For a real world example, let's look at Iraq. That relatively small nation remained unpacified for at least five years after the US overthrew Saddam Hussein- this with an invader that actually tried to limit collateral damage and casualties among non-combatants, if only for propaganda. Are you delusional enough to believe the Principality- whose government won't even give a fuck about "winning hearts and minds"- can control an entire planet within one year?

3) Earth's warp scientists and engineers prove cooperative, granting Zeon warp capability and helping either to refit existing vessels or design new ones. The new Zeon regime is thus secure against external opponents.

This is downright impossible. If their actions during the One Year War is any indication, the Principality will not be satisfied with ruling one planet, and will seek to expand. This means the Vulcans, Andorians, Klingons, and Romulans will fall under the Principality's crosshairs, which means the Principality will fall under the Vulcans, Andorians, Klingons, and Romulans' crosshairs. I doubt all the resources available to the entire human race in the 22nd century, will match that of empires that have endured centuries or even millenia of major and minor wars.

In theory, FTL allows this ship to fight only at the right moments, but Zeon's response will be to ensure that there are no or at least very few right moments (maintain sensor discipline, no ships travelling alone, etc). This will limit Zeon's strategic flexibility, but is unlikely to be enough to make a difference.

W/out FTL sensors and communication? That's like saying blinding and deafening an entire army will have little effect on this army's ability to wage war.

2) Launch a guerilla campaign using Jupiter station as a base. This is doable until such time as Zeon acquires warp-capable warships. This option is workable, but unlikely to be successful on its own, for the same reasons as option 1.

If the Principality actually conquers Earth, do you seriously believe Starfleet remnants on Jupiter will do nothing during the months, if not years Zeon forces need to build a fleet of warp-capable ships?

Starfleets FTL advantage can be arguably balanced out by Zeon's numerical advantage, then again, we might argue otherwise. Starfleet's only undeniable advantage is its FTL capability, thus it becomes a question of whether Starfleet has the numbers and/or destructive force necessary to make a difference.

This is like saying a gang of carjackers- on foot- can defeat a tank platoon by jacking any tank that's not buttoned up. Unless every single officer in Starfleet is criminally incompetent, FTL capability will be such an overwhelming advantage, the Principality's numerical advantage is downright meaningless. Again, try to beat me when I'm in a main battle tank- road speed of 68 km/h, offroad speed of 48 km/h, operational range of 450 km, w/ night and infrared vision to let me see further and more clearly than you, w/ encrypted communications w/ air support and other friendly units- and you're on foot.

[Darksider]

Even if Juubi's perfect Zeon-wank scenario did come about, The UE remnants at Jupiter station and throughout the solar system would surely recieve at least supplies and weapons from the Vulcans, more than enough to make the Zeeks lives a living hell.

And I know at least one Andorian starship captain that's gonna be pissed if the NX-01 goes down.

This Scenario is in no way whatsoever "Difficult to declare either way." An absolute best case scenario for the Principality has them being ground down through attrition by earth and allied forces, a worse case scenario involves UE forces using their superior mobility to fuck their shit up right proper and annexing them in the ensuing peace treaty.

Either way, the Zeon are fucked.

[Darwin]

a worse case scenario involves UE forces using their superior mobility to fuck their shit up right proper and annexing them in the ensuing peace treaty..

Which interestingly the Zeon would likely not be against, as it gives them several years to achieve technological parity before trying it again, see Neo Zeon circa UC0093.

[Darksider]

a worse case scenario involves UE forces using their superior mobility to fuck their shit up right proper and annexing them in the ensuing peace treaty..

Which interestingly the Zeon would likely not be against, as it gives them several years to achieve technological parity before trying it again, see Neo Zeon circa UC0093.

I can't see the UE being retarded enough to allow a re-armament right on their watch. Superior sensor capability means any Neo-Zeon movement will be considerably easier to detect. Not to mention that Enterprise-earth doesn't have as many resources in orbit for them to use. UC earth had a ton of resource satillites towed into orbit, whereas the UE Just uses their FTL to go out to the asteroids.

Once defeated by the UE and their allies, I seriously doubt the Zeeks will be able to re-arm to the level of being a major threat without the UE detecting them and ruining their shit again.

Not to mention that the time frame your talking about would place it squarely in the middle of or after the Romulan war, when the proto-federation would be in existance and have fleets of experienced veterans in numbers similar to what zeon had at it's peak.

[Beowulf]

FTL is meaningless if Zeon can force battle on their terms. Since battle at warp is the exception rather than the rule in Star Trek (I haven't watched enough enterforaprize to know much about that series specifically), they should be able to. Warp gives the UE immense strategic mobility, but not so much in terms of tactical mobility.

As for how to force battle: threaten Earth. If they don't fight, you force the surrender of the various earth nations under threat of orbital bombardment. Starfleet doesn't have MBTs, they have paratroops: they can get there fast, but they aren't sufficiently (if at all) faster or stronger in real space then Zeon.

[Darwin]

FTL is meaningless if Zeon can force battle on their terms. Since battle at warp is the exception rather than the rule in Star Trek (I haven't watched enough enterforaprize to know much about that series specifically), they should be able to. Warp gives the UE immense strategic mobility, but not so much in terms of tactical mobility.

As for how to force battle: threaten Earth. If they don't fight, you force the surrender of the various earth nations under threat of orbital bombardment. Starfleet doesn't have MBTs, they have paratroops: they can get there fast, but they aren't sufficiently (if at all) faster or stronger in real space then Zeon.

I mentioned yesterday that all-out attack and forcing a stand-up fight was Zeon's only hope.

and I think you underestimate the UE's impulse ability, which is going to be at even the most conservative estimates several percent of C, and realistic estimates of .3-.4 C. They can travel at impulse between the earth and the moon in minutes and accelerate at far greater gees, vs a couple of days for a Musai which is still reliant on orbital slingshots and long acceleration and deceleration burns and such for any real speed. In realspace, the Zeon assets may as well be treated as standing still.

[Darksider]

FTL is meaningless if Zeon can force battle on their terms. Since battle at warp is the exception rather than the rule in Star Trek (I haven't watched enough enterforaprize to know much about that series specifically), they should be able to. Warp gives the UE immense strategic mobility, but not so much in terms of tactical mobility.

As for how to force battle: threaten Earth. If they don't fight, you force the surrender of the various earth nations under threat of orbital bombardment. Starfleet doesn't have MBTs, they have paratroops: they can get there fast, but they aren't sufficiently (if at all) faster or stronger in real space then Zeon.

UE forces do have far greater tactical mobility than Zeon forces. As stated earlier, at maximum speed, UC warships can take days to move around in earth orbit. They are significantly slower than the UE's space forces.

as for relative strengths, the UE fleet's vessels are considerably stronger and more manuverable than any of Zeon's space assets. Zeon's main weapons have been stated to be roughly analagous to phase cannons and torpedoes, and their main weapons are essentially one shot kills against any comparable vessels they hit (more than that actually as there are incidents of beam cannons punching all the way through UC ships) whereas UE vessels are considerably more durable thanks to their proto-shield "hull polarization" (check out youtube for the pounding the Enterprise takes at the end of "Azati Prime" for a good example). This is one of the few debates where the UE also posseses better space warfare tactics than their enemies as well. NX-class and other ships can manuver and fire in multiple arcs, whereas Zeon tactics seem to consist of "launch mobile suits, then move capital ships in a straight line while firing main guns directly foreward."

As for orbital bombardment, has Zeon ever demonstrated orbital bombardment capabilities beyond dropping an empty O'neil cylinder? Because per the op, they haven't got any of those lying around

[Commander 598]

Though not canon, Gundam Century states Zeon used hidden lunar mass drivers to bombard the Earth, which isn't any big stretch on the technology side. F90 had some old Zeon vets building a giant railgun at Olympus Mon (Mars) with plans to use it to bombard the Earth. You could say that shooting shit at the Earth is a very simple procedure...

[Darksider]

Dropping shit on earth, or shooting things at it is relatively simple, It's not like a planet is hard to miss.

The question is whether or not Zeon has anything strong enough to do significant damage to the UE government, since there aren't any conveniently abandoned colonies or resource satellites lying around.

That Jormungand beam cannon thingy might be useful for a first strike operation ('cause let’s face it, they aren't gonna hit any UE fleet ships with it) but UE's superior mobility, durability, and firepower means it's going to be taken out pretty quick once it's marked as a priority target.

The problem with a Zeon blitz attack is the fact that the UE's forces are much faster and more mobile than theirs. They take days to set their forces up for an attack on the moon, or orbital facilities. Those are days which proto-Starfleet can use to launch harassing strikes on their assets. The Zeeks surprise blitz attack worked against the Earth Federation because they were just as slow to mobilize as they are. United Earth forces would be able to react much faster the second they spotted the Zeon fleets start to move.
Weather the Principality can launch a successful surprise attack against the United Earth depends on how much the Minovsky particles can affect their sensors, 'cause once they see Zeon start to move, they will strike back, and they'll do it a lot faster than the Earth Federation did.

[Sidewinder]

FTL is meaningless if Zeon can force battle on their terms. Since battle at warp is the exception rather than the rule in Star Trek (I haven't watched enough enterforaprize to know much about that series specifically), they should be able to.

Are you serious? FTL propulsion & sensors provide such overwhelming advantages, comparing United Earth to Zeon is like comparing Hal Moore's 7th Cavalry Regiment w/ George Armstrong Custer's 7th Cavalry Regiment.

Moore's helicopters let him rapidly move reinforcements, weapons & ammo, & supplies to wherever they're needed, whenever they're needed- or if worse comes to worse, he can rapidly move his men & equipment out of harm's way. The helicopters and friendly aircraft- which Moore can call on for help, thanks to his radios- also provide vantage points from which scouts can provide real-time info on enemy activity, i.e., "Hey, Colonel, we just spotted a battalion of VC in grid coordinates XXXX. They're moving in XXXX direction, towards your position at XXXX. You better get ready."

As for how to force battle: threaten Earth. If they don't fight, you force the surrender of the various earth nations under threat of orbital bombardment. Starfleet doesn't have MBTs, they have paratroops: they can get there fast, but they aren't sufficiently (if at all) faster or stronger in real space then Zeon.

Starfleet has FTL sensors; Zeon doesn't. Starfleet has FTL propulsion; Zeon doesn't. Starfleet vessels have impulse engines that let them go from Earth to Jupiter in 1.8 hours; if the Tsiolkovsky is comparable to the Jupitris class, Zeon vessels can go from Earth to Jupiter in seven years. That means if Zeon decides to launch an attack, Starfleet gets plenty of warning, and plenty of time to do something about it, i.e., launch a preemptive attack against Zeon bases, intercept Zeon warships and threaten Zeon supply lines, move reinforcements to Federation bases before Zeon assembles a force powerful enough to threaten this base, send expeditionary forces to overwhelm Zeon bases before reinforcements arrive in time to save these bases...

[Ford Prefect]

Starfleet vessels have impulse engines that let them go from Earth to Jupiter in 1.8 hours;

Starfleet of Kirk's time could do that: Enterprise is set over a hundred years before The Motion Picture.

[Darksider]

Starfleet of Kirk's time could do that: Enterprise is set over a hundred years before The Motion Picture.

Still, I've never seen any indication that it takes them days to move around in earth orbit. The Zeon ships seem cripplingly slow compared to the Proto-feddies.

[Ford Prefect]

Still, I've never seen any indication that it takes them days to move around in earth orbit. The Zeon ships seem cripplingly slow compared to the Proto-feddies.

I don't really give a shit about that, but correcting that particular point is important. In all probability the NX-class ships probably do have large, soft sci-fi accelerations, but using a movie set a hundred and twenty years later to establish this is not good form. Neither is using the Tsiolkovsky to determine the abilities of the Jupitris class, which is both not necessarily accurate and lazy. I know the Tsiolkovsky is complete carbon copy of the Jupitris, but CE also has Zakus which are outwardly identical to the real deal and yet completely different in performance.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Even if Juubi's perfect Zeon-wank scenario did come about, The UE remnants at Jupiter station and throughout the solar system would surely recieve at least supplies and weapons from the Vulcans, more than enough to make the Zeeks lives a living hell.

And I know at least one Andorian starship captain that's gonna be pissed if the NX-01 goes down.

This Scenario is in no way whatsoever "Difficult to declare either way." An absolute best case scenario for the Principality has them being ground down through attrition by earth and allied forces, a worse case scenario involves UE forces using their superior mobility to fuck their shit up right proper and annexing them in the ensuing peace treaty.

Either way, the Zeon are fucked.

That's why I labelled it a perfect scenario. Have you ever known a plan to turn out perfectly in war? Based on the available information, things do not look good for Zeon. ZAFT might've stood a better chance (augments, mecha and pink-haired princesses! Oh my!), but as before, I have no useful quantifications.

[Vanas]

I don't really give a shit about that, but correcting that particular point is important. In all probability the NX-class ships probably do have large, soft sci-fi accelerations, but using a movie set a hundred and twenty years later to establish this is not good form. Neither is using the Tsiolkovsky to determine the abilities of the Jupitris class, which is both not necessarily accurate and lazy. I know the Tsiolkovsky is complete carbon copy of the Jupitris, but CE also has Zakus which are outwardly identical to the real deal and yet completely different in performance.

IIRC, Jupitris and it's sister ships have a mere 5/6-year round trip, backed up by This Guy running the numbers. So, somewhat faster than their undoubtedly stupidly acronymed clones, but still utterly fucked.

[Sidewinder]

Neither is using the Tsiolkovsky to determine the abilities of the Jupitris class, which is both not necessarily accurate and lazy.

Sorry, but I was unable to find detailed info on how the hell long it took a UC vessel to travel from Earth to Jupiter. If you have such info, i.e., let me know how long it took for Paptimus Scirocco to get from Jupiter to Earth, I'm all ears.

<snip>

This Scenario is in no way whatsoever "Difficult to declare either way." An absolute best case scenario for the Principality has them being ground down through attrition by earth and allied forces, a worse case scenario involves UE forces using their superior mobility to fuck their shit up right proper and annexing them in the ensuing peace treaty.

Either way, the Zeon are fucked.

That's why I labelled it a perfect scenario. Have you ever known a plan to turn out perfectly in war?

Good plans always include contingency plans, in case something does not go according to the original plan. The perfect scenario you described will not work if anything doesn't work the way the Principality wants, i.e., warp-capable vessels surviving the initial blitz (extremely likely, considering the time Zeon vessels need to get from Earth to UES shipyards on Mars & Jupiter), UE military & political leaders escaping capture during the initial blitz (guaranteed, considering the UES has FTL sensors, communications, & propulsion), pockets of resistance surviving the initial blitz (guaranteed, if history is any indication), UE allies intervening before Zeon can reverse-engineer UES warp drives, delays in the Zeon warp drive program...

[Commander 598]

...but CE also has Zakus which are outwardly identical to the real deal...

I don't think so Tim.

http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b329/ ... Comp-1.jpg

[Ford Prefect]

I don't think so Tim.

tim is the other tasmanian

Well, don't I look like a goit.

IIRC, Jupitris and it's sister ships have a mere 5/6-year round trip, backed up by This Guy running the numbers. So, somewhat faster than their undoubtedly stupidly acronymed clones, but still utterly fucked.

I think that page is actually more interesting because it reminded me that the Jupitris could build an entire mobile suit in a day, which is pretty impressive.

[Swindle1984]

Couldn't the Zeeks disguise their initial assault as, say, attempts at large-scale commerce or even something as stupid as a parade to celebrate their newfound friendship with the UE? And invite the UE to bring all of its ships to one location so they can pull a sneak attack and cripple or capture the whole fleet?

And why wouldn't the Zeeks wait around to see what the UE was like, gather intelligence, and maybe try to close the technology gap before launching their blitzkrieg?

Also, if Zeon did lose, wouldn't Terra Nova likely ally itself with any Neo Zeon movement afterward? Terra Nova hid itself pretty well, they can probably help Neo Zeon hide its activities too.

[Darwin]

Couldn't the Zeeks disguise their initial assault as, say, attempts at large-scale commerce or even something as stupid as a parade to celebrate their newfound friendship with the UE? And invite the UE to bring all of its ships to one location so they can pull a sneak attack and cripple or capture the whole fleet?

And why wouldn't the Zeeks wait around to see what the UE was like, gather intelligence, and maybe try to close the technology gap before launching their blitzkrieg?

It might be a better chance for them. Especially if they can organize a parade event that gathers the UE fleet together in one place so a single superweapon strike can cripple them, A-la Operation Stardust. It would rely on the UE being as epically stupid as the EFSF post 0082 though, making it a longshot at best.

[avatarxprime]

Still, just up and appearing around ST Earth, Zeon would want to get intelligence before attacking anyone and we all know Starfleet would want to go check these new people out. It is possible Zeon can enter into friendly relations with Starfleet while building themselves up to actually pose a threat by acquiring FTL tech.

[Sidewinder]

Couldn't the Zeeks disguise their initial assault as, say, attempts at large-scale commerce or even something as stupid as a parade to celebrate their newfound friendship with the UE? And invite the UE to bring all of its ships to one location so they can pull a sneak attack and cripple or capture the whole fleet?

The Earth Federation has negligible assets outside Earth orbit, as noted in these three articles; therefore, it's possible to bring the entire Earth Federation fleet to one location, where all the ships can be crippled.

United Earth has considerable assets outside Earth orbit, even outside the Solar System! Starfleet cannot afford to bring all of its ships to one location; in fact, I doubt Starfleet has a monopoly on warp-capable ships w/ human crews.

And why wouldn't the Zeeks wait around to see what the UE was like, gather intelligence, and maybe try to close the technology gap before launching their blitzkrieg?

Zeon must close the gaps in number of warp-capable vessels, number of trained & experienced crews capable of operating warp-capable vessels, tactical doctrines so they can exploit FTL sensors & communications as well as FTL propulsion, in addition to the gap in technology. It'll take years, if not decades to close these gaps- years a competent foe will not let the Principality have.

Also, if Zeon did lose, wouldn't Terra Nova likely ally itself with any Neo Zeon movement afterward? Terra Nova hid itself pretty well, they can probably help Neo Zeon hide its activities too.

You mean Terra Prime? Terra Prime's ideology made sense to 22nd century humans, especially after the Xindi attacked Earth & killed 7,000,000 people.

Zeon ideology would not make sense because

1) Human colonists were not forced to emigrate from Earth,

2) Zeon propaganda about "protecting spacenoids from Earth elites" may be misinterpreted as "protecting aliens from human beings," when the opposite- "protect human beings from aliens"- is on people's minds,

3) Humans have already been emigrating to space for decades, so propaganda about "accelerate the evolution of the human race into Newtypes" will collapse due to lack of evidence.