Pandemic Official

[Surlethe]

BBC

The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared a global flu pandemic after holding an emergency meeting, according to reports.

It means the swine flu virus is spreading in at least two regions of the world with rising cases being seen in the UK, Australia, Japan and Chile.

The move does not necessarily mean the virus is causing more severe illness or more deaths.

The swine flu (H1N1) virus first emerged in Mexico in April.

It has since spread to 74 countries.

Official reports say there have been 28,000 cases globally and 141 deaths and figures are rising daily.

Hong Kong said it was closing all its nurseries and primary schools for two weeks following 12 school cases.

It is the first flu pandemic in 40 years - the last in 1968 with Hong Kong flu killed about one million people.

The current pandemic seems to be moderate and causing mild illness in most people.

One factor which may have prompted the move to a level six pandemic was that in the southern hemisphere, the virus seems to be crowding out normal seasonal influenza.

It is thought the move was not prompted by the situation in any one country but the reports of several pockets of community spread.

The BBC's Imogen Foulkes, in Geneva, says that while the number of cases has made the declaration inevitable, the problem is that the pandemic phase system is designed for a very different type of virus.

WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said it had been expecting something more like the deadlier bird flu.

"It was believed that the next pandemic would be something like H5N1 bird flu, where you were seeing really high death rates, and so there were people who believed we might be in a kind of apocalyptic situation and what we're really seeing now with H1N1 is that in most cases the disease is self-limiting," he told the BBC.

The WHO will have to manage the global anxiety the declaration of a pandemic will generate, our correspondent says.

Pandemic planning

There have been more than 800 cases in the UK with some areas of Scotland being particularly hard hit.

The government has been stockpiling antivirals such as Tamiflu and has ordered vaccine, some doses of which could be available by October.

Chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson said the WHO declaration of a pandemic would not significantly change the way the UK was dealing with swine flu at the moment.

But he added there could be some minor changes to who received antivirals.

"The declaration of a pandemic per se doesn't make a big difference to the to the way we are handling the outbreaks we have.

"We are going to continue to investigate every case that occurs and treat their contacts with antivirals even though they may not be ill.

"The difference is that the Health Protection Agency has learnt a lot about approaching this question of antiviral prophylaxis and they are going to be treating the closer contacts of the cases, rather than the more far-flung contacts, because they feel that that is supported by what they know so far about how the disease is transmitting.

He added: "These flu viruses can change their pattern of attack, so when we come into the flu season in the autumn and winter in this country, when we expect a big surge of cases, we need to watch very carefully to see if the character of the virus is changing."

Scottish health secretary Nicola Sturgeon said a move to level six means that countries need to be ready to implement pandemic plans immediately but the UK was already operating at a "heightened state of readiness".

But it could affect the speed at which the UK gets pandemic vaccine supplies but that had been factored into pandemic planning.

Flu expert Professor John Oxford, said people should not panic as the outbreak was milder than others seen in the past century.

"It is global and fulfilling the requirements of a pandemic but I don't think anyone should worry because nothing drastic has happened between yesterday and today."

Let's hope the symptoms stay relatively mild and it doesn't start killing people.

[Darth Wong]

It will probably remain a "mild" pandemic for those of us in the first world countries who have reasonable access to medical facilities. Tough luck for people in developing countries, though.

I think one of the most disturbing things about this pandemic is not so much the pandemic itself, which may actually be relatively mild, but what it showed us about our containment measures. In short, this pandemic has proven that our containment measures are utterly worthless. Even with early warning and governmental action, it spread swiftly across the entire world. If it were a more deadly disease, we'd be looking at major reduction in global population.

If the next major disease is much deadlier, who knows what could happen? This has proven that we won't be able to contain its spread.

[ray245]

It will probably remain a "mild" pandemic for those of us in the first world countries who have reasonable access to medical facilities. Tough luck for people in developing countries, though.

I think one of the most disturbing things about this pandemic is not so much the pandemic itself, which may actually be relatively mild, but what it showed us about our containment measures. In short, this pandemic has proven that our containment measures are utterly worthless. Even with early warning and governmental action, it spread swiftly across the entire world. If it were a more deadly disease, we'd be looking at major reduction in global population.

If the next major disease is much deadlier, who knows what could happen? This has proven that we won't be able to contain its spread.

You're talking about Canada or everyone as a whole?

[Darth Wong]

It will probably remain a "mild" pandemic for those of us in the first world countries who have reasonable access to medical facilities. Tough luck for people in developing countries, though.

I think one of the most disturbing things about this pandemic is not so much the pandemic itself, which may actually be relatively mild, but what it showed us about our containment measures. In short, this pandemic has proven that our containment measures are utterly worthless. Even with early warning and governmental action, it spread swiftly across the entire world. If it were a more deadly disease, we'd be looking at major reduction in global population.

If the next major disease is much deadlier, who knows what could happen? This has proven that we won't be able to contain its spread.

You're talking about Canada or everyone as a whole?

Do you deliberately ask stupid questions? The pandemic swiftly spread across the entire fucking planet, thus demonstrating the impotence of our containment measures. Why the fuck would you think this criticism applies only to Canada?

[Samuel]

Well, it wasn't super-leathal- the fact it could hide as normal flu probably contributed to its ability to spread and not be detected early on. Without a trail of bodies it is harder to track these bugs down.

[Rahvin]

Would different containment procedures have been used if the disease had proven to be more lethal than it actually is? For instance, most of the outbreaks I;ve read about int he news didn't involve quarantining the individuals in a facility suited to the task - they simply sent sick kids home, for instance. I would presume that, say, and Ebola outbreak would result in immediate quarantine of any individual exhibiting symptoms rather than "go home and eat chicken soup until you aren't sick any more, and don't come back before then."

[General Zod]

Would different containment procedures have been used if the disease had proven to be more lethal than it actually is? For instance, most of the outbreaks I;ve read about int he news didn't involve quarantining the individuals in a facility suited to the task - they simply sent sick kids home, for instance. I would presume that, say, and Ebola outbreak would result in immediate quarantine of any individual exhibiting symptoms rather than "go home and eat chicken soup until you aren't sick any more, and don't come back before then."

Depends on how the disease was spread, I imagine. Something that's spread through bodily fluids is much easier to contain than something spread through the air.

[Oskuro]

As it has been related to me by a WHO employee, they are shitting bricks with this one, thus I'd say Mike's evaluation is correct.

[ray245]

Do you deliberately ask stupid questions? The pandemic swiftly spread across the entire fucking planet, thus demonstrating the impotence of our containment measures. Why the fuck would you think this criticism applies only to Canada?

I mean doesn't different nations managed to achieve different degree of containment? I thought that you are criticising Canada's containment measures for not being effective enough compared to other nations.

Guess, I was too quick to jump to conclusion.

[PeZook]

Well, if the disease was actually deadly, we'd be seeing travel restrictions, airport closures, curfews, water rationing and other harsh measures.

They weren't taken because economic costs would far outweigh any benefits. It's another one of those cases where human life, whether we like it or not, has a certain dollar value.

[Darth Wong]

Well, if the disease was actually deadly, we'd be seeing travel restrictions, airport closures, curfews, water rationing and other harsh measures.

They weren't taken because economic costs would far outweigh any benefits. It's another one of those cases where human life, whether we like it or not, has a certain dollar value.

The danger is that if we wait until we know for certain that the disease is "deadly", it's too late.

[Shroom Man 777]

@RAY: Wong was talking about things like "the entire world" and looking at a "major reduction in global population".

Then again, after this pandemic, the whole world might end up consisting of just Canada. But maybe you're just being too optimistic, ray.



Anyway, the head of our (Philippine) Department of Health is talking about how it's "just mild" and he was acting like it's not that (fucking) bad and seemed to try and make people feel better about this. I guess it's the traditional Filipino complacency at work, since he was the same guy who didn't want to suspend schools and shit over the flu. Which is patently stupid, mind you. What happens when this shit mutates into something that's not mild? What if it was something like the goddamn Spanish Influenza? There's a reason why those in the business of saving lives say shit like "hope for the best, prepare for the worse", goddamn it. Being all complacent about this matter is *not* goddamn professional - it will get people killed. Shit.

It doesn't help that most of our goddamn medical facilities, especially in the provinces, are shit. Just basic. You'd have to be well-off to afford decent first-world standard health services. Hell, some of those tiny small rural health outposts out there are actually unmanned - and that would be great if we had futuristic UAV technology, but with health personnel, but in the Philippines our "unmanned" is the low-tech kind of unmanned. Oh shit. But those don't matter, anyway, since there are those shit provincial hospitals anyway. And they can't help in this either.

So, yeah. Our DOH publicly looks complacent. In light of the fact that first world nations that do NOT have shit facilities now have thousands of cases - and in the USA, fifty have died. Man, that's just brilliant. I'm gonna go tell my dad to acquire some NBC gear now.

Anyway, it sucks to live in a poor country. Know WHY they are so reluctant to amp the emergency measures here? Because emergency measures are expensive - they cost money to get everyone in a panic and to suspend school and businesses and activities and stuff, and waste money on actually enacting measures to try and do something about this. And we're shit out of cash. Total tits.

Now we're starting to have a handful of cases. Like, weeks or a month ago, our DOH guys were like 'huurrrr filipinis are tough we don't get no steeenkin' swine floos' and shit. And now they're talking shit about 'hay look at singapore they've got swine flu too and since their population is tinier than us, that means proportionally they has more sick peoples tee-hee!".

Man, what do you think about that, ray245? The Philippine Department of Health is talking trash at you, mang. Go ancient China on their ass. Rawr!

But yeah, that is seriously unprofessional of our country's head healthcare professional dudes. I can only aspire to be that kind of shitpiece when I become a NUERS.

[Oskuro]

But yeah, that is seriously unprofessional of our country's head healthcare professional dudes. I can only aspire to be that kind of shitpiece when I become a NUERS.

Politics and professionalism rarely go hand in hand, even when lives are at stake.

[Ziggy Stardust]

One of the things that contributed to the quick spread of H1N1 is the fact that the powers that be more or less intentionally implemented less than perfect containment measures. Here in the U.S., anyway, the CDC didn't recommend closing schools, but rather that kids with flu-like symptoms should simply stay at home until they are well for at least 24 hours. Essentially, it has been treated like the normal flu, and not like something more virulent.

[Dooey Jo]

They did a good job at containing SARS, which actually was pretty dangerous. The reason this thing couldn't be contained was because it wasn't (or isn't) dangerous. Thousands were probably already infected when they started noticing the thing as something other than "normal" flu. That most likely would not have been the case if lots of people would have gotten more serious symptoms. Hopefully it doesn't cause AIDS a few years down the line.

[Broomstick]

You'd have to be well-off to afford decent first-world standard health services.

Oddly enough, that is also true in the United States...

Sometimes I think we never left the 19th Century.

We've certainly had cases around here. We've had a few deaths, too, but so far they have all been people with other, pre-existing conditions. Even so, lots of hand sanitizer being sold, and I see a lot of people using it. With everyone staying home more because of the economy it probably has slowed the spread a bit, but the flu is very contagious and very hard to stop.

One of the things that contributed to the quick spread of H1N1 is the fact that the powers that be more or less intentionally implemented less than perfect containment measures. Here in the U.S., anyway, the CDC didn't recommend closing schools, but rather that kids with flu-like symptoms should simply stay at home until they are well for at least 24 hours. Essentially, it has been treated like the normal flu, and not like something more virulent.

That's because, right now, it's not more virulent than "seasonal flu".

[Phantasee]

They did a good job at containing SARS, which actually was pretty dangerous. The reason this thing couldn't be contained was because it wasn't (or isn't) dangerous. Thousands were probably already infected when they started noticing the thing as something other than "normal" flu. That most likely would not have been the case if lots of people would have gotten more serious symptoms. Hopefully it doesn't cause AIDS a few years down the line.

This is probably why it's spread so much, it's not killing too many people, and the people it is killing were likely to die if they got a bad case of the flu anyway, so what's the difference, other than the source?

[Stark]

In Australia some states even pretty much over-reacted and absurd quarantine ideas were floated ... yet the measures were useless. As Mike said, if it was something that was a real killer we wouldn't have stopped it.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

We can still shut down transmission in the case of something exceptionally bad by mobilizing the whole military and emergency services with NBC gear and shoot-on-sight orders for anyone who leaves their place of residence. The disease would burn itself out when everyone infected and their relatives die in each house / community that we can't fully blockade. It may not be as drastic, or literally house to house, but we could block off all cities from each other, close all roads and other means of transmission, and generally get a handle on things relatively quickly, though it would still involve millions of deaths.

Though in this case it's fairly obvious that it's only killing people with underlying medical conditions, especially morbid obesity.

[Broomstick]

So, Marina, how do you plan to supply food, water, and power to the quarantined areas while you let the infection "burn itself out"? Because if you don't some people will manage to slip out.

Also, outside of rabies, I don't know of anything with a 100% fatality rate. Would be a shame if those who survive the disease die of starvation or thirst.

[PeZook]

So, Marina, how do you plan to supply food, water, and power to the quarantined areas while you let the infection "burn itself out"? Because if you don't some people will manage to slip out.

America doesn't have an emergency water distribution system?

Every city in Poland can supply its citizens with clean water via water trucks for several days at least. The amounts would be tightly rationed, the trucks would need military escort, but it would be doable.

Especially if you'd be willing to quarantine on a per sector rather than per household basis: eg. you cordon off a neighborhood, deliver food and water to distribution points and let it go from there, so that you don't have to drive by every single house.

Add a 6 P.M. curfew, distribute masks and latex gloves, and most diseases would burn themselves out pretty quickly. It stars becoming a problem when we get hit with an engineered bug with a long incubation time, high lethality and airborne. Most natural diseases tend to be either virulent or deadly, rarely both at the same time.

Let's face it: if swine flu was deadly (say, 20% - like the Spanish Flu), we'd have almost five thousand dead people and much harsher measures in place already. It would be a bad outbreak, but not catastrophic. Even if we assume that only 10% of all cases get recognized, that's still 50 thousand dead - really, really bad but not a massive extinction event.

And that's after months and months of nigh-unchecked spreading! With a deadlier disease, we'd start harsh containment much sooner, starting with airport closures (stops intercontinental spreading dead).

[Shroom Man 777]

A minor nitpick. Virulence and deadliness are synonymous in the dictionary. Virulence also relates to how fast the disease's symptoms progresses and how bad it gets. In the case of deadly viruses like Ebola, the problem is that they're too virulent - people get sick and the symptoms progress so fast that within a short time they die. Because it's so virulent, the people become very sick and/or dead too fast for them to travel around obliviously contaminating people. Before they can infect anyone else, they're already in a hospital. Or a morgue.

Now if a deadly disease was not so virulent, in that it takes longer for its symptoms to manifest, or a while for it to kill you, then that's gonna be problematic. Because THEN you've got seemingly-healthy infected people wandering around obliviously, infecting other people, before they start manifesting any symptom and find out that they're sick.

Stuff like HIV and hepatitis and stuff are like the latter. They can be contagious even though they don't feel/look sick, even though they won't get sick or die until quite some time later.

[PeZook]

Ah. Well, a case of mistaken translation. I meant...damn...the speed and ease of transmission? What's the actual English term?

[Broomstick]

So, Marina, how do you plan to supply food, water, and power to the quarantined areas while you let the infection "burn itself out"? Because if you don't some people will manage to slip out.

America doesn't have an emergency water distribution system?

Every city in Poland can supply its citizens with clean water via water trucks for several days at least. The amounts would be tightly rationed, the trucks would need military escort, but it would be doable.

What? Something so communist in the Land of Rugged Individualism?

Seriously - yes, the capacity is there, but it's not very formally organized. Americans have been told repeatedly about stockpiling in their residence and being able to go it on their own for 48-72 hours. At least. As Katrina showed, you may have to save your own ass.

[PeZook]

Seriously - yes, the capacity is there, but it's not very formally organized. Americans have been told repeatedly about stockpiling in their residence and being able to go it on their own for 48-72 hours. At least. As Katrina showed, you may have to save your own ass.

That's always a good idea, actually. Water trucks or not, having an extra 48 hours of living supplies increases survival chances exponentially. It can only help.

Which reminds me that I should get around to building an emergency cabinet at my home already...