Broomstick wrote:Having been preoccupied lately with yet another family crisis and survival issuesI haven't been following this much so I'll probably have some questions that may seem stupid but it's because I'm coming late to the party.
1. Iranians know in their blood to NEVER MARTYR SOMEONE NAMED HOSSEIN. The clerics know that especially well, for obvious reasons.
Why not? This is not obvious to me.
Straha will be able to elaborate further, but it has to two with one of the holy Imams in Shi'ism named Hossein who was martyred and is revered.
I note that a lot of riot footage is making it out over the internet - good for that. The government is finding it impossible to suppress everything, nice to know that defiance is still possible on that level. Also audio - some very good examples of "ugly crowd noise".
Yea, with foreign and local media being either suppressed or highly censored, all video is captured by participants or observers. There are still some wire photographers running around and some media figures providing recorded or written reporting (UKChannel4, BBCPersia and the NYT's Roger Cohen).
The chants are fairly regular in their use. They tend to cycle between "God is greatest" "Down with (death to) the Dictator" "We are not afraid, together we are united" and, to the police "join us."
I was a little surprised not to see mounted riot police - Iranians don't use horses for crowd control? That's pretty standard over here.
I haven't seen any mounted police in any videos or heard any of it in any reports, and I've been following this rather closely.
I've also noticed a dearth of burning vehicles. Yes, there are SOME burning vehicles - I noted a video of burning bus - but there seem to be a lot fewer of those than in riot footage I've seen from the west, particularly the US. Is it just that there are fewer vehicles available or on the street?
Apparently the protesters are doing very little damage themselves to private property. Some vehicles (especially city buses) have been burned, but the protests have been from the outset largely peaceful. The pro-govt. militia Basij are the one's instigating much of the violence. Apparently many riot police are reported to be standing and watching, rather than participate in the crackdown. While video clearly shows anti-riot officers beating protesters, the Basij are the ones doing the shooting.
There are still vehicles parked all over the city of Tehran (which is by no means the only city with unrest, merely the one getting all the reporting). There is video of the BASIJ being the one's vandalizing parked cars and breaking into people's homes. The protesters have, again, been largely non-violent until they are confronted.
Seems to me these protests have taken on a life of their own - is that the case or am I off base? If these crowds have passed beyond Moussavi's control then Iran would seem to be heading towards civil war.
Mousavi has appeared at the events sporadically and continues to call for them, as are former President Khatemi, and Mousavi's fellow reformist candidate Karoubi. The march today (part of which was posted by Straha earlier - assuming that it IS in fact a video from today - which it appears to be) was not organized by Mousavi to my knowledge. Certainly there are a great number of people willing to take great risks for this cause.
The prospects of a civil war remain unclear until the intrigue among the clerics is decided. Rafsanjani is widely reported to be in Qom rallying support in the Expediency Council to remove Khamenei. Depending on how the clerics tip will help determine the future of the movement. Also the proper Army has, thus far, remained neutral in the conflict, with the protesters fighting the Basij militia, anti-riot forces and the Revolutionary Guard. The army could help swing the balance if it decides toget involved. Also there are reports of fracturing within the IRG itself, with several top officers reportedly being taken into custody.
I have mixed feelings about the videos of that young woman Neda dying that are making the rounds. For one thing, young people are exactly the sort who die most frequently in these sorts of street protests so I'm not exactly surprised. I'm torn between those who label it and those who pixelate it, as it is raw, disturbing footage, and showing it raw and upfront - THIS is reality, this is what it looks like when someone dies from gunfire in a riot. It's not pretty, but people need to know the reality and not just sweep it under the rug. Any more details on what happened to her? The bleeding from the mouth and nose would seem to indicate a severe chest wound. I wonder, though, with her eyes sliding so far to the right early on in the video if there wasn't some sort of head wound. She might have been looking towards whoever held the camera and then died, but it might also be a sign of sudden massive brain dysfunction. Yes, bleeding to death can bring that on, but the eyes slide to the extreme right before the massive hemorrhage.
This email has been widely circulated, but is naturally unconfirmed:
"At 19:05 June 20th Place: Karekar Ave., at the corner crossing Khosravi St. and Salehi st. A young woman who was standing aside with her father watching the protests was shot by a basij member hiding on the rooftop of a civilian house. He had clear shot at the girl and could not miss her. However, he aimed straight her heart.
I am a doctor, so I rushed to try to save her. But the impact of the gunshot was so fierce that the bullet had blasted inside the victim's chest, and she died in less than 2 minutes. The protests were going on about 1 kilometers away in the main street and some of the protesting crowd were running from tear gass used among them, towards Salehi St.
The film is shot by my friend who was standing beside me. Please let the world know."
I got this transcript from
Andrew Sullivan
One can only wonder what sort of footage might have come from Tienanmen Square those many years ago, had we had cell phone cameras and the internet as we currently know it back then.
Yea, I think this has ramifications for any government in a developed part of the world that wants to crack down on their citizens. Technology is making it harder to hide atrocity and repression from the world. Raw images and first hand "tweets" are, if unconfirmed, able to make the situation more personal. An aside on China: hhere are reports of the Chinese trying their very best to censor all news coming out of Iran into China.
Are the crowds starting to drive back the police more, or not? I'm not sure how this is going. The police have guns, but the protesters have overwhelming numbers in some of those videos. If they ever get organized they'll steamroll the police even if the front ranks are brought down by guns and tear gas. Any reports of crowds overwhelming the police?
It seems to depend on where they are and when. These are BIG protests all across Tehran (let alone the other cities). The footage is taken from across the sprawling city. In some places the police successfully disperse the crowd with tear gas/water cannon/brute force. In others they are overwhelmed by the crowd.
It should be noted that the police are NOT the ones shooting people. All confirmed kills by firearm have come from the Basij militia, who are also the ones smashing cars and invading homes. The riot police and regular police are not doing this, as far as I know. There is video of the peaceful rallies before the government crackdown that show the anti-riot cops being friendly and smiling with the crowds. The anti-riot forces aren't rabid pro-govt like the Basiji are, and a lot of them don't seem to be putting much into the suppression.
Apparently things have been more violent in other cities like Isfahan and Shiraz, but little news is coming out of those places at the moment.
