Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Lonestar »

Anguirus wrote: Aside from your NK example below, any recently?
While being threatened overtly by other countries is a good reason for ABM, it's an order of magnitude less of a good reason than "accidental launch", which is far, far more common than people think.

Besides some of the public domain instances mentioned, I can think of 4 or 5 instances I've heard through RUMINT from navy buddies working in Colorado Springs where we came close to major oopsies. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess Stuart can think of more than 4 or 5.

Sometimes, accidents just happen. My workcenter(me and the 9 other dudes who stood watch on the same equipment) were directly responsibly for almost knocking the Iranian P-3 out of the sky, because it was night time(so radars were off), we told the TAO where it was through RFDFing, and pulled a WAG for it's altitude. The TAO told the carrier, and the carrier sent two planes to check it out. We could hear the sonic boom of the jets go by, and alarms going off in the P-3, because he happened to be at exactly the altitude we guessed at. USN jets accidentally knocking down a prop-airplane? Ho Ho Ho, it would have been Christmas for some countries!
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by [R_H] »

D.Turtle wrote: Its not about offending them, its about not wanting to restart the Cold War. The prevalent viewpoint is that the Cold War is over, Russia is no longer a direct threat, and ABM might restart an arms race that could stop or reverse disarmament.
What kind of an arms race would ABM restart, strategic bombers?
D.Turtle wrote: The nuclear arms race are way down, conventional forces are way down, and there no longer a strong drastic strategic/political adversary to the US or Europe.
And what kind of arms race are Iran and NK currently in? Conventional forces in Western and Cent. Europe are "way down". "No longer a strong drastic strategic/political adversary"...like say Russia on the issue of ABM?
D.Turtle wrote: What arms race? The only ones still acting like there is a massive arms race and spending accordingly are the US.
And the Russians, and the Chinese, and so forth. They're all modernising and developing new weapon systems. And the US is spending like it's in the middle of fighting a war. Remember what Stuart said about how little of the DoD ABM is?
D.Turtle wrote: Like I said, I favor ABM - it raises the bar to join the nuclear club to such an extent that only very few countries can realistically reach it.
Agreed.

D.Turtle wrote: So you want everybody to always have a wartime military with the appropriate spending? You do realize that many countries almost bankrupted themselves paying for WW2?
Uh, what part of my post implied that?
D.Turtle wrote: Hell, a good argument can be made that WW2 was cause by the victors trying to get the money back they spent in WW1 - and you want to keep that level of spending indefinitely?
And disarmament didn't do anything to prevent WW2, which was my point. Germany was still able to rearm, and then caught a lot of other countries by surprise.
What do you mean by limited ABM?
10-20 interceptors or so - enough to neutralize any theoretical Iranian or NK nukes, not enough to be a real threat to the Russian and American nukes. That is something that I think can be realistically implemented (politically) within a pretty short time frame.[/quote]

10 to 20 for all of Europe? And why not procure enough to threaten American and Russian nukes, after all, the European countries that have nukes don't have enough to act as a deterent. So why not get rid of the nukes and replace them with a whole bunch of ABM?
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Stuart »

Rye wrote: I'll even bet money on it too. £100, that by the end of the next decade that Britain or the US will not be nuked.
That one quote does show that you really don't have any appreciation of the gravity of the situation. UKP100 is chicken feed, I spend more than that taking my wife out to dinner. The even terms comment is even more revealing. Lets make a real bet that reflects teh actual situation. I'll put up UKP0.01. In exchange if you lose you do a five-generation kill on your entire family. That means you personally kill your grandparents, parents, brothers, sisters, children and grandchildren before killing yourself. That puts the odds reasonably in context.
NK threatening the surrounding nations is NOT starting a nuke fight with the US and you know it.
If you check my comments above, you'll find the answer to that. In addition to threats made directly against the USA, we have treaty links with many if not all of the surrounding countries So, threatening them is directly threatening the US.
Nukes for rogue states with any semblance of civilisation are the peacemaker, they want safety, they don't want to be laid waste by everyone else's stockpiles, which is what they damn well understand to be the direct result of launching on anyone else.
I'm sorry but that is simply not in agreement with reality. I suggest you check what has been going on out there. Now, it is true that the possession of nuclear weapons does tend to introduce strategic paralysis but, as pointed out earlier, the rules have changed. Strategic paralysis existed where countries were rational and careful. In too many cases, the latest countries acquiring nuclear weapons are neither. So, new rules, new era.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by D.Turtle »

[R_H] wrote:What kind of an arms race would ABM restart, strategic bombers?
More nukes, bombers, conventional forces.
And what kind of arms race are Iran and NK currently in?
NK and Iran want nukes so that the US won't invade/attack them.
Conventional forces in Western and Cent. Europe are "way down".
Yes.
"No longer a strong drastic strategic/political adversary"...like say Russia on the issue of ABM?
Erm, comparing the controversy over ABM with the Cold War, then yes what I said is true.
And the Russians, and the Chinese, and so forth. They're all modernising and developing new weapon systems.
Compared to the Cold War? No they are not in an arms race.
And the US is spending like it's in the middle of fighting a war. Remember what Stuart said about how little of the DoD ABM is?
The US is spending the money on conventional forces, not on ABM.
Uh, what part of my post implied that?
You espousing not disarming.
10 to 20 for all of Europe? And why not procure enough to threaten American and Russian nukes, after all, the European countries that have nukes don't have enough to act as a deterent. So why not get rid of the nukes and replace them with a whole bunch of ABM?
Because most Europeans don't view every other country as an enemy. We don't think everyone is just waiting for a sign of weakness in order to pounce on us and destroy us. Its simply another view of the world. And that is where the disconnect is.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

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Rye wrote:Yeah. Shit, I'll even bet money on it too. £100, that by the end of the next decade that Britain or the US will not be nuked. Willing to take that bet? I will also bet that thousands more people will die in the US from the debacle that passes for healthcare than nuclear weapons. You willing to take me up on either of those? You're not going to risk American lives, sure, but you're not going to risk your own money on the offchance you're going to get nuked, either, are you?
Congratulations, you fail Probability & Statistics 101. You don't (rationally) make your decisions based on the probability of something happening, you make it based on comparing the expected risk to the expected reward.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by [R_H] »

D.Turtle wrote:
[R_H] wrote:What kind of an arms race would ABM restart, strategic bombers?
More nukes, bombers, conventional forces.
So, for example, if Europe has ABM, countries like Iran would bother expanding their conventional forces? I can only see conventional forces expanding (still talking about about Europe) if it's Russia, or some country that can project enough power or a country that can easily invade/attack Europe. Besides, the noble and civilised EU would consider other option before buying more evil tanks and such. :P
D.Turtle wrote:
And what kind of arms race are Iran and NK currently in?
NK and Iran want nukes so that the US won't invade/attack them.
The US isn't capable of invading them now, and won't be for quite a few years after a pullout in Afghanistan. Plus, their conventional forces are (especially in NK's case) a huge deterrent.
D.Turtle wrote:
Conventional forces in Western and Cent. Europe are "way down".
Yes.
Russia's aren't "way down" though, neither are China's, neither are NK.
D.Turtle wrote:
"No longer a strong drastic strategic/political adversary"...like say Russia on the issue of ABM?
Erm, comparing the controversy over ABM with the Cold War, then yes what I said is true.
It's still an adversary WRT integrating Eastern Europe into NATO and the EU.
D.Turtle wrote:
And the Russians, and the Chinese, and so forth. They're all modernising and developing new weapon systems.
Compared to the Cold War? No they are not in an arms race.
Keep telling yourself that.
D.Turtle wrote:
And the US is spending like it's in the middle of fighting a war. Remember what Stuart said about how little of the DoD ABM is?
The US is spending the money on conventional forces, not on ABM.
D.Turtle wrote:What arms race? The only ones still acting like there is a massive arms race and spending accordingly are the US.
That was you on page three of this thread.

They're not spending like it's an arms race. They're spending the money (on their conventional forces) because they're in the midst of fighting on another continent. And they are spending money on ABM, it's just a drop in the bucket though.
D.Turtle wrote:
Uh, what part of my post implied that?
You espousing not disarming.
No, I was pointing out that disarming did nothing to prevent WW2. I espouse spending enough money to keep capabilities and equipment up to date, and to be able to expand the armed forces as rapidly as possible when needed.

D.Turtle wrote:
10 to 20 for all of Europe? And why not procure enough to threaten American and Russian nukes, after all, the European countries that have nukes don't have enough to act as a deterent. So why not get rid of the nukes and replace them with a whole bunch of ABM?
Because most Europeans don't view every other country as an enemy. We don't think everyone is just waiting for a sign of weakness in order to pounce on us and destroy us. Its simply another view of the world. And that is where the disconnect is.
Not everyone is an enemy, but a lot people in Europe don't realise what a dangerous place the rest of the world is.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Serafina »

[R_H] wrote: Not everyone is an enemy, but a lot people in Europe don't realise what a dangerous place the rest of the world is.
I think it is necessary to point out that this only applies to the populace, not the military.
Although the german military seems to have a rather fatalistic worldview: "if any major war happens, we are screwed anyway".
Of course, i only have some friends in the military on personell and NCO-level, not in the general staff :D
- so, their worldview is mostly unknown to me.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by The Grim Squeaker »

Serafina wrote:
[R_H] wrote: Not everyone is an enemy, but a lot people in Europe don't realise what a dangerous place the rest of the world is.
I think it is necessary to point out that this only applies to the populace, not the military.
Although the german military seems to have a rather fatalistic worldview: "if any major war happens, we are screwed anyway".
Of course, i only have some friends in the military on personell and NCO-level, not in the general staff :D
- so, their worldview is mostly unknown to me.
Speaking as someone with a friend in the higher echelons of the German military, they too realize how dangerous most of the world is. Of course, they're a political minority :P
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by [R_H] »

Serafina wrote:
[R_H] wrote: Not everyone is an enemy, but a lot people in Europe don't realise what a dangerous place the rest of the world is.
I think it is necessary to point out that this only applies to the populace, not the military.
I understand that. The other people that understand that are perceived as fools who are stuck in the Cold War. However, the (moronic, highly opinionated) populace determines their (moronic, highly opinionated) representatives who then create policies. And the military has to trot obediently behind their idiot civilian masters.
Serafina wrote:Although the german military seems to have a rather fatalistic worldview: "if any major war happens, we are screwed anyway".
No positive thinking? :mrgreen: At least if Russia's the threat, then Germany has Poland as a speed bump (sell more Leopards to them!). :twisted:
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

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Regarding ABM expenditures (as with any other defense expenditure), one guy I strongly respect on the web made an excellent point elsewhere:

'Military spending is inherently consumptive, is economically a sunk cost, like insurance, and generates little to no capital, like insurance, so the best policy is "as much as you can afford, but as little as you can get away with".'
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Stuart »

montypython wrote:Regarding ABM expenditures (as with any other defense expenditure), one guy I strongly respect on the web made an excellent point elsewhere: 'Military spending is inherently consumptive, is economically a sunk cost, like insurance, and generates little to no capital, like insurance, so the best policy is "as much as you can afford, but as little as you can get away with".'
Which all goes to prove that cute sayings do not make a good argument. That one is wrong on all counts.

Military spending is not a sunk cost. Some countries, for example France, Russia and Israel generate substantial foreign currency earnings from their military equipment sales. When one tries to sell defense equipment, the first question the potential buyer will ask is "do your own forces use this equipment?" If the answer is "No." the next sound heard is the banging of the door as the ex-potential buyer leaves with the contract still in his pocket. So, military expenditure generates valuable returns. Mostly, it also goes straight back into the economy and generates life there, providing jobs, supporting factories and communities. There's a reason why part of FDRs New Deal was a major boost in defense expenditure.

As to the insurance issue, the cute aphorism is all wrong. What determines insurance coverage is what you have at risk and how those are at risk. If you have a house full of valuable paintings but don't drive a car, you don't buy a mass of car insurance because its less expensive. Likewise, you don't buy even more paintings instead of insuring the one's you have. Risks are assessed in terms of potential loss and the potential losses from a nuclear weapon being initiated in a U.S. city are astronomic
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

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Stuart wrote:
montypython wrote:Regarding ABM expenditures (as with any other defense expenditure), one guy I strongly respect on the web made an excellent point elsewhere: 'Military spending is inherently consumptive, is economically a sunk cost, like insurance, and generates little to no capital, like insurance, so the best policy is "as much as you can afford, but as little as you can get away with".'
Which all goes to prove that cute sayings do not make a good argument. That one is wrong on all counts.

Military spending is not a sunk cost. Some countries, for example France, Russia and Israel generate substantial foreign currency earnings from their military equipment sales. When one tries to sell defense equipment, the first question the potential buyer will ask is "do your own forces use this equipment?" If the answer is "No." the next sound heard is the banging of the door as the ex-potential buyer leaves with the contract still in his pocket. So, military expenditure generates valuable returns. Mostly, it also goes straight back into the economy and generates life there, providing jobs, supporting factories and communities. There's a reason why part of FDRs New Deal was a major boost in defense expenditure.

As to the insurance issue, the cute aphorism is all wrong. What determines insurance coverage is what you have at risk and how those are at risk. If you have a house full of valuable paintings but don't drive a car, you don't buy a mass of car insurance because its less expensive. Likewise, you don't buy even more paintings instead of insuring the one's you have. Risks are assessed in terms of potential loss and the potential losses from a nuclear weapon being initiated in a U.S. city are astronomic
The devil is indeed in the details, but even so the point still stands, for one thing exporting arms may generate revenue for the seller but unlike civilian tools like tooling for construction equipment, integrated circuits and such there is no comparable net gain in added value, for arms remain consumptive by nature. Arms exports just shove that cost to someone else but the cost remains. This is why military Keynesianism is a socioeconomic and political dead end cumulatively. And as for insurance, you don't insure what you don't have, but what you do have isn't insured with a blank check. This is true even for people living on coastal areas with flood insurance.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Starglider »

[R_H] wrote:
D.Turtle wrote:
[R_H] wrote:What kind of an arms race would ABM restart, strategic bombers?
More nukes, bombers, conventional forces.
So, for example, if Europe has ABM, countries like Iran would bother expanding their conventional forces? I can only see conventional forces expanding (still talking about about Europe) if it's Russia, or some country that can project enough power or a country that can easily invade/attack Europe.
It's not that simple. One thing Stuart isn't saying here, but which he's almost certainly thinking, is that ABM will force a whole series of second and third tier nations to give up on challenging the hegemon (that's the US). We're in this situation because ICBMs in the absence of ABM make excellent and relatively cheap blackmail tools. Even being able to say 'my big conventional army could invade your regional ally and destroy lots of infrastructure before you can push us out' - which is the best a conventional arms build-up is going to get you - that pales into insigificance, in poltical terms, compared to 'if you don't give in to my demands I will destroy your major cities'. Stuart and most of his colleagues are maximal realists, they believe that nations will only challenge the hegemon if it looks weak, and lack of ABM effectively gives the US a massive weak spot. Proliferation of missile technology means the tools for exploiting that are getting pretty cheap, so lots of little nations are deciding to 'challenge the hegemon'.

By contrast, developing intercontinental bombers and cruise missiles, capable of penetrating a modern air defence network, plus their logistics base and the trained personnel to operate them, is extremely expensive. It's on a par with developing a carrier strike force capable of constant presence in potential trouble spots - and only the US has managed that, with only a few of the biggest and richest powers with any hint of matching that capability (and most of those are US allies). ABM does in fact help to promote and maintain US dominance, even if everyone gets it and the US gets rid of all its ICBMs. Maximal realism predicts that if you take the affordable opportunities away, they'll give up and start co-operating instead (or at least avoid overt challenges).

All that said, even if you're dead set against the idea of US dominance, turning the world into a nuclear powder keg by letting tinpot dictators and religious nuts acquire ICBMs with no defence... any sane person should agree that that is far worse.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

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There's nothing really difficult these days about missile technology; it's very well dispersed. For example, North Korea and South Korea have both launched satellites, that proves they have ICBM capability. So has Japan. Indonesia as well. Pakistan and India have both IRBMs and are developing ICBMs. India is developing an SLBM. China has ICBMs SLBMs and IRBMs
If NK has true ICBM capability, then why is the US disputing that claim? South Korea I am less worried about, given their close working relationship with the US. Japan has no nukes. Indonesia has sworn off nuclear testing. Pakistan and India developing ICBMs doesn't really surprise me, but at least both currently have relatively close strategic ties with the US AFAIK. China was on my list.
Let's see, Japan in 1941, North Korea in 1950, the USSR in 1956, China in 1958, China in 1963, North Korea in the late 1960s and 1970s (several times), the USSR in 1968, USSR in 1973
I sholud have qualified "recently." WWII took place at a time when the US was not the dominant superpower of the planet, and only relatively astute political and military theorists had grasped what a strong position it was in back when our army was trailing Portugal's. During the Cold Wars we were perceived as relatively equal partners in antagonism with the USSR.
Iraq 1991, China 1996, North Korea (several more times).
Iraq lost their (non-nuclear) bet. China's nuclear threat in 1996 I was unfamiliar with. I promptly Googled it, and aside from editorials all I managed to come up with was At the height of the confrontation, General Xiong made headlines in America when he told a US academic: "Americans care more about Los Angeles than Taiwan." The remarks were widely interpreted as a veiled threat of nuclear strikes on America's West Coast So yes, this is extremely bad, but not an official ultimatum...it was a remark from a high-ranking Chinese official to a former defense official, who then reported it to the White House. In 2002, the same Chinese official was scolded by Condoleeza Rice, and nuclear devastation failed to ensue.

Was this a well-nigh inexcusable remark? Yes. Should this guy have been fired instead of promoted? Yes. But it wasn't exactly state-to-state nuclear blackmail, and it's hard to say if China "won" this "round" considering that Taiwan continues to conduct its own affairs, and the US naval intervention at the time seems to have had a rather intimidating effect.

(Bizarrely, I did a fair amount of research for a report on the China-Taiwan conflict and the danger of the US commitment to Taiwan around 2003-2004, and while I concluded that the region was dangerous and the Taiwanese were in a troubling position, I turned up none of this "China threatened LA" story at all.)
Finally, the damage that will result from even a limited attack on the mainland is so horifying that they subconsciously don't want to think about it. If they don't, it won;t happen. You're doing exactly the same thing by the way. Don't be embarrassed about it, that's what most people do.
Ok, I'll try not to be embarrassed by your rhetorical strategy. It's ok to just call me an idiot on this board you know, it would probably go over better than patronizing me. :roll:

You've made a good point, but is it not true that the horror of nuclear devastation affects politicians all around the world, not just the US? What leaders are sufficiently motivated to cause such devastation in the US, and then undoubtedly face similar destruction in their own country?

You've made your point that investing in ABM and trying to obsolete ICBMs is a good idea, but is it a good idea at this particular moment in time? Starting another arms race is pretty much the last thing anyone wants, and this fear may also be affecting politicians. As I observed, it would probably take a great deal of political capital to convince the legislators and their constituents of this, barring some foreign policy disaster (like an actual, blatant threat from China to use their ICBMs to try to score a political victory).
Straw man. Nobody has ever said we should drop everything else. And if you haven't heard Pentagon people sceraming that ABM is needed, you haven't been listening
Assuming that we maintain the current proportion of military funds, then its a strawman. However, I support spending a lot less money on the military period. I'm most interested in maintaining air supremacy and readiness of the weapons systems we currently have. Once again, perhaps my ignorance has asserted itself, but dropping a bunch of money into R&D during the current crisis struck me as a bit odd, especially since the fiscal conservatives are currently screaming about the massive deficit (some of whom even cares about the deficit when it was Bush's) and everyone is currently occupied with the Herculean tasks of the economy and healthcare.

As for the Pentagon, my Google-fu is weak again. Who is doing the screaming?
Ask Pakistan.
Pakistan doesn't have infrastructure and population?
The argument about "there are other things we should buy first" is seductive but its fundamentally fallacious. There are always other things we need.
How is it fallacious? Yes, there ARE always other things we need, and like everything else, we need to make judgment calls. I'll confess that your arguments have led me to bump ABM a few places up my mental list, but conversely you have failed to convince me that we are under some sort of imminent nuclear threat. ABM is something to be developed and constructed with the support of other nations (i.e. don't just go to Russia and wave a list of changes you want in the ABM treaty at them) as protection for everyone in the world.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Serafina »

[R_H] wrote:
Serafina wrote:Although the german military seems to have a rather fatalistic worldview: "if any major war happens, we are screwed anyway".
No positive thinking? :mrgreen: At least if Russia's the threat, then Germany has Poland as a speed bump (sell more Leopards to them!). :twisted:
Nah, its more like "they will nuke us, anyway. Because no one without nukes will declare war on us."
Which kinda proves the point that ABM is a necessity.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Starglider »

Anguirus wrote:South Korea I am less worried about, given their close working relationship with the US. Japan has no nukes. Indonesia has sworn off nuclear testing. Pakistan and India developing ICBMs doesn't really surprise me.
So you've been proven wrong, but it's ok, because well this one doesn't surprise you, that one isn't so bad, those ones probably won't go to war, probably... how are you not seeing the problem here? Rapid profileration is underway, the list of ICBM armed powers is expanding at a rate of several a decade after being static for at least two decades. Even if there isn't a power that worries you too much, not yet, they don't seem too unreasonable... how long is it going to take before truly dangerous states (in your opinion... in my opinion we've already got plenty of truly dangerous states with nuclear missiles) do prove a grave threat?

Bear in mind that ABM isn't something you can magically wish into existence the minute you conceed that yes, actually there is a threat now. It takes years to design, test, produce and deploy the system. Through the dedicated effort of people who refused to let US ABM development die, despite very effective political opposition, the US is in a fairly good position. AFAIK rolling out effective, national ABM coverage (on the scale of the Sentinel program) is still going to take the best part of a decade, though a partial screen can go up faster given funding. Maintaing the ability to deploy ABM in a few years or even a few months is useless when you find yourself in an actual crisis - particularly when people like you don't seem to accept any number or severity of crises as justification for proceeding with the rollout, unless and until some unfortunate city gets vaporised.
So yes, this is extremely bad, but not an official ultimatum...it was a remark from a high-ranking Chinese official to a former defense official
You're only getting the unclassified story. We can see how close the Cuban Missile Crisis was now, with the benefit of hindsight, because most of the relevant material has been declassified. The media of the time or even twenty years later had no idea. I very much doubt the modus operandi of international diplomacy and brinkmanship has changed much in the interim.
But it wasn't exactly state-to-state nuclear blackmail,
Think about this for just a minute. Why would a state trying to blackmail another state announce it openly in the press? Most of the time that decreases the chance of success, because it means that if the opposing state caves they look weak in front of their own people and the world at large. That causes western politicians to lose elections, dictators to be the subject of popular revolutions and/or military coups, and even if that doesn't happen you're only inviting a string of further blackmail attempts in the future. Blackmail is most likely to work if you allow the opposition the means to save face. Obviously this isn't my field, but I'd imagine that ambigious, deniable remarks like the Chinese one you mentioned are ideal for raising the pressure without removing options from either side.
It's ok to just call me an idiot on this board you know, it would probably go over better than patronizing me.
It's a legitimate observation. Stuart has been in many, many debates on ABM, he's certainly in a position to generalise across the usual mistakes his opponents make, particularly beginner ones.
Once again, perhaps my ignorance has asserted itself, but dropping a bunch of money into R&D during the current crisis struck me as a bit odd
This is unrelated to the above, but R&D spending is a better economic stimulus than producing tanks or expanding military payroll. It almost always produces spin-off benefits for other defence programs and (for basic research) civillian industry, in addition to providing business for suppliers the way production does and employment for valuable technical staff that you want to keep in the country (instead of generic infantrymen).
As for the Pentagon, my Google-fu is weak again. Who is doing the screaming?
Google didn't exist before 1998. This debate has been raging for fifty years now, mostly in closed, classified forums. Don't expect to find all the details laid out for you on a handful of web pages.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Simon_Jester »

D.Turtle wrote:...Hell, a good argument can be made that WW2 was cause by the victors trying to get the money back they spent in WW1
Ah... this is not my understanding of events. Could you explain the argument to me, preferably with some numbers?
[R_H] wrote:
D.Turtle wrote:
[R_H] wrote:That's, IMO, pretty close minded and, well stupid, almost as dumb as "disproportionate" force. Who does this opposition come from? And are they unaware that ABM is already employed, and was the subject of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty which was signed in 1972? Besides, Patriot, SM-3, S-300/400, Arrow and in the near future THAAD and MEADS all have ABM capability.
Opposition to ABM runs through all parties - some more some less. The only ABM system that could get enough support would be a combined system with the Russians -to make it absolutely clear that it is not aimed at them.
So because they don't want to upset the Russians, there's opposition to any system that doesn't include those poor Russians. What about the alternative of reducing dependancy on Russian gas and telling them to fuck off?
Bad idea.

Put simply, the Russians have the power to massively fuck Germany over with or without having control over their supply of natural gas. If they can count on the Americans it might not end with Germany occupied by Russia, but that won't be much comfort to the enormous number of Germans who would be killed in the crossfire.

So if Germany isn't looking at probable existential threat from Russia, it makes sense for them to concentrate on taking steps to reduce the probability of the threat by calming them and making sure they stay that way. Even if that makes it harder for them to reduce the severity of the threat by building up defenses.

Remember what Stuart said about multiplying the probability of a threat by the amount of damage it can do? Some nations react to that kind of calculation by trying to lower the probability, not lowering the amount of damage that they'd suffer if it happened.

So my guess is that the Germans calculate that a German ABM system that didn't stop enough Russian missiles, or that stopped missiles but did nothing against their conventional forces, would not protect Germany thoroughly enough to justify raising the threat Germany poses in the eyes of the Russians themselves. There's a danger of being caught in the middle, with enough firepower to get someone to take you seriously and try to knock you down hard without having enough to defend yourself when they do.

So I can see why Germans would think ABM is a bad idea, even though I have no idea whether they're doing the math right. German strategic calculations don't necessarily have to parallel American calculations. Germany is not nearly as high-profile a target for a lot of the nuttier nations in the world; they're not the one the crazies call the Great Satan.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Starglider »

Simon_Jester wrote:
D.Turtle wrote:...Hell, a good argument can be made that WW2 was cause by the victors trying to get the money back they spent in WW1
Ah... this is not my understanding of events. Could you explain the argument to me, preferably with some numbers?
He means the theory that the crippling reparations imposed on Germany were essential to creating an environment where the Nazi party could rise to power. Personally I don't buy that, and even if I did Europe would still have been a powder keg. Reducing or eliminating reparations may have changed the details of the war, but I very much doubt they would have prevented a war.
So if Germany isn't looking at probable existential threat from Russia, it makes sense for them to concentrate on taking steps to reduce the probability of the threat by calming them and making sure they stay that way.
Ironically this is exactly the attitude that lead the 1930s British government to appease Nazi Germany. Not that the current situation is comparable, but the logic is.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Gil Hamilton »

I think it interesting that if the capacity to put a satellite into orbit is the hallmark of a potential ICBM armed power, institutions like MIT and CMU could easily become their own nuclear power. To use those two institutions as an example, both have facilities and staff easily skilled enough to build a nuclear bomb and probably could actually order fissile material if they asked nicely enough. In the case of MIT, launching a satellite was considered a trivial problem. I know for a fact that they were working on a launch system that could put a satellite into orbit... on the budget of a medium sized high school. The fact that a unversity like MIT is one really well written proposal from having its own nuclear arsenal, given that the certainly have all the know-how to launch their own weapons program, is somewhat disturbing.

Nuclear weapons aren't THAT hard. I understand that Japan could be a first rate nuclear power about three months after they decided they really had to be and in fact have stockpiles of fissile material and parts ready to go. The only thing really stopping them is that they have a Thing about nuclear weapons because some jokers might have rubbed out two of their cities with them, or something, and the political motivation to make them doesn't exist.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Starglider »

Gil Hamilton wrote:I think it interesting that if the capacity to put a satellite into orbit is the hallmark of a potential ICBM armed power, institutions like MIT and CMU could easily become their own nuclear power.
ICBM != Nuclear. You don't see non-nuclear nations building ICBMs because it isn't useful to do so; a conventional ICBM would be a huge amount of money and a massive provocation for very little actual damage. Theater ballistic missiles are a whole different story.
probably could actually order fissile material if they asked nicely enough.
Power reactor grade fissile, sure. Weapons grade, I think not, and enrichment from the former to the later is extremely expensive. Iran is doing it, but they have large oil revenues, North Korea is starving their own people to do it. I don't think MIT's discretionary budget quite runs to a large scale gas centrifuge plant.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

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Google didn't exist before 1998. This debate has been raging for fifty years now, mostly in closed, classified forums. Don't expect to find all the details laid out for you on a handful of web pages.
I feel like this is one of the problems here. I'm pretty much taking all of the facts that you are giving me at face value (and thus am a relatively friendly audience). However, I can hardly help being skeptical when statements such as this are made. I remember when thinking Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction made me shockingly naive, and ignorant of all the facts.

I have a feeling that I'm about as convinced as you're going to make me at this point. I now agree that ABM should be a military priority for the United States. However, if you don't mind a little constructive criticism, the military-industrial complex isn't going to make much headway by telling citizens and lawmakers that "you'd be just as paranoid as us if you knew what we knew." Sorry, once burned twice shy. Give us the facts. Apparently, those facts are not getting out there, if not disseminated by people on message boards.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Samuel »

Starglider wrote:
Simon_Jester wrote:
D.Turtle wrote:...Hell, a good argument can be made that WW2 was cause by the victors trying to get the money back they spent in WW1
Ah... this is not my understanding of events. Could you explain the argument to me, preferably with some numbers?
He means the theory that the crippling reparations imposed on Germany were essential to creating an environment where the Nazi party could rise to power. Personally I don't buy that, and even if I did Europe would still have been a powder keg. Reducing or eliminating reparations may have changed the details of the war, but I very much doubt they would have prevented a war.
Wasn't the German war debt a larger portion than reperations.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Darth Raptor »

The arms industry is just as much to blame for the resistance to ABM as anyone else. After all the money we've spent on entirely worthless toys, you can't be too surprised when people who can get it up for things other than missiles are fed up with your shit. So when you have a project that isn't a massive corporate welfare boondoggle and offers a non-imaginary return on investment, we want nothing to do with it. Shocking.

So yeah, build all the ABM defenses you want. I'm sure there are a couple of guided missile cruisers or supersonic stealth fighters or endless counter-insurgency operations we could axe to pay for them all.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Starglider »

Anguirus wrote:
Don't expect to find all the details laid out for you on a handful of web pages.
I feel like this is one of the problems here. I'm pretty much taking all of the facts that you are giving me at face value (and thus am a relatively friendly audience). However, I can hardly help being skeptical when statements such as this are made.
I didn't say the information wasn't available, I said that it wasn't neatly laid out in the first 10 Google results. When I first had this debate with Stuart about two years ago I was pretty skeptical of ABM as well, though more for more technical reasons than you. He recommended some books (e.g. Shield of Faith, Wizards of Armageddon), I bought them and read them. My knowledge on the subject went from negligible to sufficient to appreciate all the basic arguments - you don't need classified material for that, not today anyway (you probably did in the 60s and 70s).

Maybe in another decade or so we'll be at the point where you can expect to find pertinent information on everything online, but we certainly aren't there yet. I get this in my field pretty often actually, people ask 'where can I find out all about AI online', and they act surprised when I say 'actually all the online resources I know of suck, go read these books'. And that's for a topic that centers around computers. Really now that you can get almost any book you want for $5 off Amazon (second hand), a few clicks and shipped to your door overnight, you have no excuse not to read up on topics you'd like to debate.
Give us the facts. Apparently, those facts are not getting out there, if not disseminated by people on message boards.
The problem seems to be a massive opposing disinformation scheme. If that sounds like a conspiracy theory, it shouldn't. Just look at how effectively environmental groups sabotaged nuclear power, mostly using outright lies and for idiotic and self-serving reasons.
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Re: Ted Kennedy and the ABM system

Post by Xisiqomelir »

Stuart wrote:For your information, it's a standing rule. One never, ever plans on enemy intentions, one always plans on the basis of their capabilities.
Question, Stuart (since you worked with Bruce-Riggs): Do we apply the same level of suspicion to our nuclear allies?
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