Dominion War: who won and will there be another one?

[Kane Starkiller]

OK we all now how the ending of the war was presented to us: Federation cornered the Dominion, Founder learned the true meaning of Christmas and they all lived happily ever after.
Terra victor!

Of course a closer look reveals the following: Federation suffered occupation of at least one major planet; unknown number of planets, among them even Earth, suffered bombings and damage to their industry and a number of their shipyards were lost. There are no canon statements about damage done to the industry of Klingon Empire although Sloan did state it will take decades for them to recover from the war. Ultimately Romulans joined the war late and the impression I had was, even though they lost a number of ships, the war never crossed their borders.
Dominion, even though it was officially defeated, suffered absolutely no damage to their industrial base nor have they lost any territory thus their resource base was also intact.
Furthermore at the end of the war Dominion still had a sizeable fleet in the Alpha Quadrant which was said to pose a threat even to the combined Allied forces. That fleet was then allowed to return to Gamma Quadrant and rejoin the Dominion.

Therefore Dominion actually left the war in a better position than Federation which suffered damage to it's economic base in addition to both sides loosing warships.

On the other hand we know that Dominion ally, Cardasian Union, was effectively destroyed and erased as a major power however this too can be seen as beneficial to the Dominion since it's long term goal was to eliminate major Alpha Quadrant powers. There was no information about the fate of the Breen but seeing the laughably soft terms of Dominion surrender it's very likely they were simply allowed to return to their territory and not forced to disarm. A beaten yet undefeated enemy of the Federation would be a natural ally for the Dominion if there ever is a second war.

Of course a major question is what to do with the Prophets which control the Wormhole. Prophets are not indestructible, there was an episode in which an evil Prophet entered the body of O'Brien's wife forcing him to modify DS9's equipment to emit some kind of beam into the wormhole to destroy the Prophets. As he was doing this Rom figured out they were going to kill the Prophets simply by observing the modifications to the station. Thus there is no reason to believe why the R&D division of Dominion couldn't figure out the way to wipe out the Prophets themselves if they ever decide to return to Alpha Quadrant for a rematch.

Finally there is a question of whether the Dominion will continue to plot for the destruction of the Federation or whether Odo will teach them to live in peace. Now Odo convinced the female Founder to surrender after he cured her however that still doesn't mean she changed her mind about the grand plan. As she was dying it's likely she wasn't even thinking straight and ordered the Dominion to fight to the death simply out of spite. When she was cured instead of being awed by the solids she might have simply decided that, if the terms are right, it's better to surrender and fight another day even if that means going to Federation jail. As it turned out Federation allowed the entirety of Dominion forces in Alpha Quadrant to return home, going to jail was a small price to pay for a patriotic Founder especially since they are so long lived. Even if the female founder truly was changed this still doesn't mean Odo will manage change the minds of the majority in the Great Link. They were fighting the solids for thousands of years and now the Federation beat them back while at the same time taking more damage than the Dominion. Thus Federation revealed itself as a threat and a ripe target at the same time. Second Dominion War seems to follow logically.

[Crazedwraith]

Sisko is A Prophet now though. One imagines he can just stop the Dominion going through the wormhole if he likes it. In the name of protecting Bajor.

[Kane Starkiller]

As I said above Prophets can be killed as simply as modifying existing equipment on DS9. It was a one man job. Certainly Dominion could develop or steal the technology if they set their minds on it.

[Covenant]

You can also collapse the wormhole which, while bad for several people, would certainly slow down the attacking Dominion fleet. I'm pretty sure that whatever it was that made it impossible to shut it down (for a time) probably isn't a permanent modification--or that a strong enough negative effect could still crush it.

We also don't know how many founders died or how badly the damage inflicted by the disease had degraded their control over the other efforts--we'd seen many instances of Jem'hadar going amok due to lack of white throughout the war, so supplies were being misplaced or intercepted. It's possible they had gone apeshit elsewhere, or that the Dominion's temporary lack of control (as well as some big hits on shipping production) could make them unable to focus outside of their own Quadrant for the moment.

[NecronLord]

Thus there is no reason to believe why the R&D division of Dominion couldn't figure out the way to wipe out the Prophets themselves if they ever decide to return to Alpha Quadrant for a rematch.

And the guys on the Enterprise could tell that the Borg were constructing an Interplexing Beacon in First Contact, a device that could signal across the galaxy. Yet a Federation ship can't make one (witness Voyager) and the Federation lack that technology.

Put another way, Kirk could figure out what Trelane's mirror was for. Therefore he can make one?

[Gandalf]

I wonder how much the Dominion invested in their Alpha Quadrant expedition. They sent what was apparently a great deal of military and economic aid to Cardassia. This was essentially enough to take them from a "third rate power" to someone able to take on the Federation and Klingons for three months. All of this occurred with seemingly no new ketracel white until Statistical Probabilities or Jem' Hadar until One Little Ship.

Then there was the fleet that was seemingly "deleted" in the wormhole.

Would the Dominion be willing to risk that again?

[Nieztchean Uber-Amoeba]

Not to mention, in the Dominion's eyes, the Federation managed to whip together an Extinction-level pandemic virus to kill the Founders in the course of only months which was averted only by the Federation magnanimously delivering a cure. I highly doubt they'd be particularly excited about dealing with a people who seemingly have better biological warfare and genetic engineering divisions than they do and risking their own annihilation.

[Kane Starkiller]

You can also collapse the wormhole which, while bad for several people, would certainly slow down the attacking Dominion fleet. I'm pretty sure that whatever it was that made it impossible to shut it down (for a time) probably isn't a permanent modification--or that a strong enough negative effect could still crush it.

Yes gaining foothold in the Alpha Quadrant again will be the trickiest part for the Dominion. Once the invasion starts they must keep control over both sides of the wormhole or risk it's destruction by the Federation. Meaning they must be much more determined than the last time and commit large forces immediately rather than slowly building them up.

We also don't know how many founders died or how badly the damage inflicted by the disease had degraded their control over the other efforts--we'd seen many instances of Jem'hadar going amok due to lack of white throughout the war, so supplies were being misplaced or intercepted. It's possible they had gone apeshit elsewhere, or that the Dominion's temporary lack of control (as well as some big hits on shipping production) could make them unable to focus outside of their own Quadrant for the moment.

Female Founder although completely alone had complete loyalty of her forces right to the end. In Gamma Quadrant where Dominion industrial base is secure and intact I don't see why there would be any disruption in their control or shortages of white drug. Of course Dominion will have to rebuild it's forces first, they certainly wont come back a few weeks after the war. I was thinking more in the lines of WW1-WW2 interwar period.

And the guys on the Enterprise could tell that the Borg were constructing an Interplexing Beacon in First Contact, a device that could signal across the galaxy. Yet a Federation ship can't make one (witness Voyager) and the Federation lack that technology.

Put another way, Kirk could figure out what Trelane's mirror was for. Therefore he can make one?

Picard obviously had some knowledge about the beacon since he was able to guess it's purpose. Secondly it's entirely possible Federation can build them but can't build beacons of sufficient range.
In any case this is a technologically superior civilization building new hardware and presumably from components salvaged from the Sphere. Rom and O'Brien merely modified existing discarded Cardassian equipment which was decades old. Rom clearly understood each step and what it will ultimately result in.

I wonder how much the Dominion invested in their Alpha Quadrant expedition. They sent what was apparently a great deal of military and economic aid to Cardassia. This was essentially enough to take them from a "third rate power" to someone able to take on the Federation and Klingons for three months. All of this occurred with seemingly no new ketracel white until Statistical Probabilities or Jem' Hadar until One Little Ship.

Indeed however all the industry that made that remained intact int the Gamma Quadrant. And even the factories set up on Cardassia were so formidable that Sisko worried Dominion remnant could threaten them if allowed to entrench on Cardassia.

Then there was the fleet that was seemingly "deleted" in the wormhole.

Would the Dominion be willing to risk that again?

Will the Dominion be willing to risk not eliminating the Prophets is the bigger question. They clearly allied with the Federation and could make wormhole a one way street: allowing Federation to strike but not allowing Dominion counterattack. Developing weaponry designed to eliminate the Prophets should be on top of their list.

Not to mention, in the Dominion's eyes, the Federation managed to whip together an Extinction-level pandemic virus to kill the Founders in the course of only months which was averted only by the Federation magnanimously delivering a cure. I highly doubt they'd be particularly excited about dealing with a people who seemingly have better biological warfare and genetic engineering divisions than they do and risking their own annihilation.

To which a natural response will be to whip up security dramatically, perhaps splitting Great Link into several parts and ramping up bio screening and quarantine procedures anytime someone leaves or returns to Great Link. As well as preparing plans to ensure the Federation never threatens Dominion again.

[Stark]

Not to mention, in the Dominion's eyes, the Federation managed to whip together an Extinction-level pandemic virus to kill the Founders in the course of only months which was averted only by the Federation magnanimously delivering a cure. I highly doubt they'd be particularly excited about dealing with a people who seemingly have better biological warfare and genetic engineering divisions than they do and risking their own annihilation.

That sort of shit isn't that hard biologically. Frankly I think if there is another war, the Dominion will simply destroy the Federation population with bioweapons, since the 'invincible' Founders are now massively paranoid. How many random raiding fleets would be required to seed all Federation worlds with a fast-acting bioweapon? I'd say 'not many'. And then before all the humans turn to goo, Sisko could say something like 'man, this is exactly why you don't use bioweapons okay Section 13'.

[DaveJB]

Yes gaining foothold in the Alpha Quadrant again will be the trickiest part for the Dominion. Once the invasion starts they must keep control over both sides of the wormhole or risk it's destruction by the Federation. Meaning they must be much more determined than the last time and commit large forces immediately rather than slowly building them up.

"Tricky" is an understatement - unless they left a significant portion of their fleets in the Alpha Quadrant at the end of the previous war, it's likely going to be the single biggest obstacle they would face in any follow-up invasion of the AQ.

If you remember, the Federation managed to prevent being utterly crushed by putting a minefield around the wormhole, thereby keeping Dominion reinforcements from entering the AQ for several months; unless the Dominion manages to pull off some kind of attack that takes the Federation by total surprise, they could probably do the same thing again. Even if they didn't or couldn't set up a new minefield, the Bajoran wormhole is a pretty major chokepoint that the Dominion are dependant on, and you'd think the Federation would beef up their defences in that area in the post-war period.

I suppose they could get round the problem by using a massive fleet of sleeper ships at high warp for 60+ years, but frankly I don't think even the Dominion would be quite that determined.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

As far as battles are concerned, my money's on the Dominion.

Despite what Bashir tried to claim in the Section 31 novel 'Abyss', the Federation did not win because of its 'love of freedom' or because the citizen soldier is somehow inherently more resourceful and adaptable than his professional counterpart (the Jem-Hadar being exceedingly professional). As far as I can see, the Federation's victory was down to two basic factors. One was cutting off the Wormhole, forcing the Dominion to rely on the resource-poor Cardassian Union as a base (as well as the generosity of the Breen and other allies). The other was managing to end the war quickly by reaching Cardassia Prime and persuading the FF to surrender, a factor to which the anti-Founder virus contributed. It is unclear what would've happened if the FF succumbed (though a Vorta research team was searching frantically for a cure, so they might have resolved it themselves).

In terms of ground combat, the Jem-Hadar proved themselves quite capable early on. 'The Siege of AR-558' is often cited as an example of their incompetence, but I argue against this. The Jem-Hadar seen walking towards the Federation position in 'Napoleonic' fashion turn out to be hologram decoys, and it is difficult to get a clear idea of what the Jem-Hadar are doing later on, because of the camera work (lots of slow-mo and focussing on the defenders). Any drop-off in Jem-Hadar capabilities can be blamed on the inexperience of the Alphas (churned out on-site), as opposed to the Gammas, who were part of the Dominion's standing force when the war started, so would have recieved the full training. The arrogance displayed by the Alphas in the execrable 'One Little Ship' could not have helped matters. Ketracel-white is also cited as a weakness, but it must be remembered that it is not simply a drug, but the Jem-Hadar food source. Shortages don't just mean withdrawal, but actual starvation also (itself pretty debilitating). Being able to get by on small ampoules of white liquid is a significant logistical advantage. On the other hand, removing the addiction would allow the option of foraging and looting in the survival context.

In terms of starship combat, the attack ship and the two cruiser variants are already well-known. The ship worth talking about is the technobabble-immune battleship, weighing in at 1200-1500 metres long and capable of pounding a Defiant-class starship to scrap with minimal-to-nonexistant damage in return. There has been talk of 5km long monstrosities (on the basis of one scene), and while there are precedents for such large vessels (Borg cubes, Voth city ships etc), I won't count those without further evidence. We did not see battleships until the war was in full swing, likely explanations being that they are a new design that the FF put into production on-site out of necessity, or that the battleships are the Dominion's trump card and not often used (thus none were sent through before the war).

For actual combat to take place, it would be necessary to either secure the Wormhole or find some other means of spanning the distance (another wormhole, perhaps). Therefore, the logistical problems faced by the Dominion in the previous war would not be an issue (at least not to the same extent). We can therefore expect to see fully-trained Jem-Hadar and a fair few battleships. Perhaps more importantly, we can expect that the Dominion will have learned from some of its mistakes. An army which last knew defeat is in many respects more dangerous than an army who last knew victory. Victory brings with it victory disease, whereas defeat provides harsh lessons and a determination born of humiliation and loss. The Jem-Hadar are without doubt proud, and will be determined that such a defeat should never happen again. Their most glaring weakness was the lack of an infantry support weapon, with which their battles at AR-558 would have been a lot easier. Such weapons do exist, such as the Breen CRM-114 (DS9, Business as Usual), and the grenade launcher used by Worf in ST: Insurrection, so it should not be beyond the Dominion to design and build one. We can thus expect better-armed Jem-Hadar as well.

Overall, the only factors preventing another Dominion war are the practical matter of distance (making control of the Wormhole a priority) and Odo's influence on the Founders. It ultimately depends on how much their thinking has changed since the first war.

[Kane Starkiller]

I don't think we really need to delve into details such as what kind of rifles each side has or even what kind of battleships they have. The only really important thing is that Federation-Romulan alliance never fought the Dominion. They fought the Dominion expeditionary forces that got stuck in the Alpha Quadrant and were completely cut off from Dominion itself and all its factories and logistical support. Even so they proceeded to lay the smack down on the Federation and the Klingons and it took the Romulans to balance things out.
If the Dominion manages to control the Wormhole the second time around outcome of the war is a no brainer.

As for penetrating the minefield there is no reason why Dominion couldn't try simple brute force. We know they can put 2800 ships into the wormhole in a single go so it's not as much of a bottleneck as people think. Sending drone ships or firing torpedoes and detonating them around the wormhole will destroy the mines nicely.

[Bilbo]

Do we know how much of the Dominion home fleet 2800 ships represented? For all we know they stripped themselves down to bare minimum to send that fleet on the assumption that the war would end in a matter of weeks and the fleet could come home.

If it was a sizeable part of the fleet then I would imagine that the Founders have a crapload of work ahead of them. Theuy have to rebuild the fleet and keep thei Dominion in order. Considering how quick they were to invade the Alpha Quadrant I doubt most "members" of the Dominion are happy members. They could be facing decades in civil strife and rebellion as various subject races see this weakness as a time to move.

This could be made worse by the fact that the Dominion may not control a sizeable portion of their own military production. In one episode we meet an alien who says he supplies torpedoes to the Dominion. If they farm out a large part of their military production then it makes revolt even easier.

So over the next 40 years we could have another invasion of the Alpha Quadrant or we could have the wholesale self destruct of the Dominion from internal strife. Consider it a galactic Balkans event.

[DaveJB]

As for penetrating the minefield there is no reason why Dominion couldn't try simple brute force. We know they can put 2800 ships into the wormhole in a single go so it's not as much of a bottleneck as people think.

It's not just how many ships you can fit through the wormhole in one go, though - any defenders on the other side of the wormhole will know your precise exit vector, and how many ships are likely to be coming out of the wormhole mouth. That means that once they've taken casualties from the minefield (assuming the Federation put one up) they'd likely have to contend with a whole fleet of starships that can lay down a deadly crossfire by the mouth of the wormhole.

Sending drone ships or firing torpedoes and detonating them around the wormhole will destroy the mines nicely.

The mines the Federation used were self-replicating ones. Just blowing a bunch of them up wouldn't achieve anything, as replacements would just be created on the fly, and you'd think that firing a few torpedoes into the minefield would have been the first thing the Dominion tried after taking DS9. Also, if the Federation are smart, they'd put another minefield up at the Gamma Quadrant end at the first available chance, which they didn't really get to do in the original conflict.

There's also the fact that if the Dominion could have pushed enough ships through the minefield while still maintaining an acceptable casualty rate, they would probably have just done that in the original war rather than waiting several months for the people on the other side to figure out the minefield's weakness. After all, the Dominon have shown the past they aren't adverse to sacrificing their ships.

[Bilbo]

As for penetrating the minefield there is no reason why Dominion couldn't try simple brute force. We know they can put 2800 ships into the wormhole in a single go so it's not as much of a bottleneck as people think.

It's not just how many ships you can fit through the wormhole in one go, though - any defenders on the other side of the wormhole will know your precise exit vector, and how many ships are likely to be coming out of the wormhole mouth. That means that once they've taken casualties from the minefield (assuming the Federation put one up) they'd likely have to contend with a whole fleet of starships that can lay down a deadly crossfire by the mouth of the wormhole.

Sending drone ships or firing torpedoes and detonating them around the wormhole will destroy the mines nicely.

The mines the Federation used were self-replicating ones. Just blowing a bunch of them up wouldn't achieve anything, as replacements would just be created on the fly, and you'd think that firing a few torpedoes into the minefield would have been the first thing the Dominion tried after taking DS9. Also, if the Federation are smart, they'd put another minefield up at the Gamma Quadrant end at the first available chance, which they didn't really get to do in the original conflict.

There's also the fact that if the Dominion could have pushed enough ships through the minefield while still maintaining an acceptable casualty rate, they would probably have just done that in the original war rather than waiting several months for the people on the other side to figure out the minefield's weakness. After all, the Dominon have shown the past they aren't adverse to sacrificing their ships.

Go check the main website. The number of mines, how quickly they can replace, and how large an area they cover, all mean that they are really nothing more than a bluff.

[Themightytom]

Although better arguments have been made that the Dominion can't kill the wormhole aliens, I think thats probably the central issue here, as there would be no round 2 unless both parties have transportation to the ring.

If the wormhole prophets have the ability to see beyond linear time, couldn't they prevent themselves from being killed by not opening the wormhole when the person pointing the gun at them would actually succeed? The pah Wraith posessing Obrian's wife wasn't going to succeed so they didn't care?

Given the centralized totalitarian nature of the Dominion, wouldn't it be easier for them to find a race with slipstream technology and either buy or capture one for reverse engineering? They are "Adjacent" to the Delta quadrant which has a few examples, and being larger and more unified than the AQ powers they could either divert a LOT of research effort or pretty much trade a ship for a planet. Instead of funneling their forces through the haunted house wormhole, ALL of their ships could strike anywhere in the Alpha quadrant.

[NecronLord]

Picard obviously had some knowledge about the beacon since he was able to guess it's purpose. Secondly it's entirely possible Federation can build them but can't build beacons of sufficient range.

In short, there's no justification for your assumption that because one set of "mortals" can tell that a "god" is building an anti-god weapon, they too can build an anti "god" weapon if they just put their minds to it.

Right.

Oh, added bonus, there's no garuntee that with the Prophets gone, the Celestial Temple will remain intact. That'd be rather an own goal for a Dominion war strategy now wouldn't it?

[Solauren]

Considering the Prophet (and Pah-Wraith) that took over Kira and Jake Sisko couldn't foresee Kia Wheen interfering in 'The Reckoning', and were driven out / nearly killed by Chroniton radiation, I wouldn't count them up as invulnerable to attack.

All it would take if the Dominion developing some kind of Chroniton Torpedo (ala the Krenim), or similiar weapon, and the Prophets and Pah-Wraith are a non-factor.

In fact, (ignoring Odo's influence, if any) if the Dominion was smart, they'd build up a massive invasion fleet in secret while playing nice, and once they had a 10:1 advantage, kill the Prophets and come out of the wormhole with a vengance.

Bonus points if they develop Cloaking Technology, come through the wormhole in secret, and then pounce multiple major targets at once.

[Starglider]

The acquisition of quantum slipstream (or subspace conduit) technology by either side will make a massive impact here. There is a reasonable chance of the Federation being able to develop it after Voyager's return; they have the data on the original enhancements used to catch up with the Dauntless, the experiment in Timeless, Voyager's utilisation of Borg transwarp coils and whatever else they got from Seven and future Janeway. Structural difficulties may make it impractical on full starships for some time, but a superfast missile similar to the Cardassian 'dreadnought' weapon would probably be easier. If the Federation can develop this (and presumably mass-produce the other technological advancements brought back by Voyager), then I would say they have a fighting chance against the Dominion. If the Dominion get it then they are utterly, hopelessly screwed.

[Crazedwraith]

After they deleted the fleet in 'Sacrifice Of Angels' didn't the Prophet's also prevent anymore Dominion reinforcements for the rest of the war? If the Dominion could kill the prophets; they would have likely do it then.

[Solauren]

Considering the limited number of species we've seen using Chroniton or temporal technology (The Federation, the Borg, presumably the Krenium in this timeline, and eventually the Klingons), it's possible the dominion has yet to develop Chroniton technology.

Lack of the technology would make it difficult to weaponize it.

[AirshipFanboy]

The Federation and its allies technically "won" the Dominion war, as they achieved their goal of pushing the Dominion out of their quadrant. But yeah, the OP makes good points that I was too dumb to think of; the Dominion was barely scratched and could probably could win a rematch if it applied enough innovation.

The Founder woman only surrendered so that the cure could be delivered to the rest of the Founders. As the whole Dominon exists only to protect the Founders and refusing to surrender would mean their extinction, not surrendering and continuing to fight to dominate the Alpha Quadrant would make little sense.

As paranoid as the Founders are, NOT trying to wipe out the Federation would be out-of-character for them. The Federation has shown itself to be especially threatening (by making a bio-weapon that almost killed every Changeling), and the Founders justify their galactic conquest by claiming its necessary to neutralize potential threats.

The female-Changeling said that the Dominion would never bother the Alpha Quadrant again, but she's hardly trustworthy. I doubt that Odo would individually be able to convince the entire Great Link that the solids aren't a threat or are anything more valuable than dog shit. Odo was more than susceptible to the influence of a single changeling, let alone a whole ocean of them.

But, several Voyager and Enterprise episodes with time travel indicate that the Federation survives into the 29th century. For whatever reason, the Dominion doesn't annex it before that time.

[DaveJB]

Go check the main website. The number of mines, how quickly they can replace, and how large an area they cover, all mean that they are really nothing more than a bluff.

You'd better show me which page you're talking about, because the only one I can find says that they wouldn't be effective against the Empire; it says nothing about the Dominion.

Anyway, like I said above, if the Dominion could have just brute-forced their way through the minefield without losing too many ships, they would have just done that. A civilisation that mass-produces disposable warriors and warships isn't going to sit at the GQ entrance of the wormhole for three months just because they were afraid of the consequences of running into the Federation's big bad minefield - the casualties it would have caused were obviously too much for the Dominion's liking, and that was when they controlled the AQ entrance. The situation would likely be a whole lot worse for them if it was the Federation in control.

[Starglider]

Anyway, like I said above, if the Dominion could have just brute-forced their way through the minefield without losing too many ships, they would have just done that.

We don't know how good their intel on the minefield was. It was hastily conceived and executed by a small number of DS9 personnel, and information about it was doubtless very carefully controlled. Certainly the Federation officers involved destroyed all materials that might help with reverse engineering before they left DS9. Even given the presence of Dominion operatives in Starfleet, they may not have been able to confirm the exact mechanism and number of mines deployed (i.e. they probably wouldn't have the data we get in the DS9 technical manual). Certainly you would expect Starfleet Intelligence (and possibly Section 31) to do everything they could do give the Dominion the impression that the minefield was more potent than it actually was.

Since the minefield was going to be taken down fairly quickly anyway, and there was no pressing need for the reinforcements (the existing expiditionary force was in no danger of defeat or even serious withdrawal right up to the campaign to retake DS9), the Dominion's decision not to risk unpredictable damage to their fleet by forcing the minefield was understandable.

A civilisation that mass-produces disposable warriors and warships isn't going to sit at the GQ entrance of the wormhole for three months just because they were afraid of the consequences of running into the Federation's big bad minefield

The founders are accustomed to thinking on long time scales. Three months is nothing. If the alpha quadrant forces were losing that would be one thing, but in fact they were firmly in control of DS9 and if anything advancing.

the casualties it would have caused were obviously too much for the Dominion's liking

The plausible upper limit of the casualties the minefield might cause, based on the limited intel the Dominion had, was higher than the expected benefit of having the ships available in the alpha quadrant a few months earlier. I'm sure if the plan to take down the minefield hadn't worked, they would've rushed it. No one could have predicted that letting the Defiant get into the wormhole would instantly destroy the entire Dominion fleet.

[DaveJB]

We don't know how good their intel on the minefield was. It was hastily conceived and executed by a small number of DS9 personnel, and information about it was doubtless very carefully controlled. Certainly the Federation officers involved destroyed all materials that might help with reverse engineering before they left DS9. Even given the presence of Dominion operatives in Starfleet, they may not have been able to confirm the exact mechanism and number of mines deployed (i.e. they probably wouldn't have the data we get in the DS9 technical manual). Certainly you would expect Starfleet Intelligence (and possibly Section 31) to do everything they could do give the Dominion the impression that the minefield was more potent than it actually was.

They might not have know the exact capabilities of the minefield, but they would have been able to get some idea by sending some drones or Jem'Hadar ships through on suicide missions.

Since the minefield was going to be taken down fairly quickly anyway, and there was no pressing need for the reinforcements (the existing expiditionary force was in no danger of defeat or even serious withdrawal right up to the campaign to retake DS9), the Dominion's decision not to risk unpredictable damage to their fleet by forcing the minefield was understandable.

Well, as I understand it, the real problem they had was not being able to replace their fleets fast enough if the AQ powers did somehow score a crucial victory, as well as the Ketracel White supply being bottlenecked (and then cut off completely), but that's a fair enough comment.

The plausible upper limit of the casualties the minefield might cause, based on the limited intel the Dominion had, was higher than the expected benefit of having the ships available in the alpha quadrant a few months earlier. I'm sure if the plan to take down the minefield hadn't worked, they would've rushed it. No one could have predicted that letting the Defiant get into the wormhole would instantly destroy the entire Dominion fleet.

Again, fair point. Weyoun did seem concerned about the prospect of not being able to get reinforcements, but that's not really enough to base an argument on (and more likely due to him being a careful planner).

In any case, we've gotten away from the original point I was making, which is that a minefield would be more problematic if the Federation controlled the Alpha Quadrant end of the wormhole, as it would combine with the already limited exit path from the wormhole and the obstacle of a heavily fortified space station (possibly a fleet as well) to make getting their forces into Federation space a serious problem for the Dominion.