The FDIC is broke

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J
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The FDIC is broke

Post by J »

WSJ link
FDIC Fund to Be in Red for Years as Bank Failures Jolt System


By DAMIAN PALETTA and MICHAEL R. CRITTENDEN

WASHINGTON -- The government said the fund that protects consumer bank deposits has fallen into the red and will remain there into 2012, a pointed symbol of how the aftershocks of the financial crisis will reverberate for years as banks continue to fail at a high rate.

The negative balance is a headache for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which runs the fund. On Tuesday, it proposed the unprecedented step of having the banking industry prepay $45 billion in fees by the end of the year to give the government more breathing room to handle future failures.

The only other time the fund fell into the red was in 1991, during the savings-and-loan crisis, and it shows how U.S. officials underestimated the impact of this crisis on the government's cash needs.

"Though some of our largest bank failures have already taken place, there are still hundreds and hundreds of banks that are going to fail in this cycle," said Gerard Cassidy, a bank analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

FDIC officials stressed that the fund's depleted state wouldn't affect depositors because federally insured deposits are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.

The prepayment proposal was met with unexpected support from banks. Some saw it as preferable to another option the FDIC seriously considered -- an emergency charge of $5.6 billion on top of the regular fees. This would have likely come directly out of the capital reserves at thousands of banks.

FDIC officials said banks would be able to spread the impact of the fee prepayment over several years by the way they account for it on their balance sheet.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive James Dimon, in an interview, praised the FDIC's plan as "an elegant way for them to do it."

In essence, the FDIC is proposing that most banks hand over by the end of the year their deposit-insurance fees -- the fund's standard source of income -- for the end of 2009 and all of 2010, 2011 and 2012.

The FDIC said that without the new policy, its cash on hand would be outpaced by its cash needs sometime early next year. Bank failures are expected to hit their peak either this year or in 2010.

The FDIC continues to have cash even though its deposit insurance fund has fallen into the red. It has already taken more than $30 billion out of the fund to cover bank failures over the next year. This is the money that is expected to run dry early next year without the prepayment assessments. FDIC officials estimated the deposit insurance fund wouldn't be back to comfortable levels until 2017.

Government officials on Tuesday estimated that bank failures from 2009 through 2013 will cost the FDIC $100 billion, up from a projection several months ago of $70 billion. Ninety-five banks have failed so far this year.

The FDIC's proposal reflects a growing recognition from government officials that more money will be needed to mop up the mess than they projected just months ago. It is also a stark reminder of how the banking sector continues to be strangled by bad loans.

There have been bank failures in most states since January 2008, hitting Georgia, Illinois and California particularly hard. The FDIC had 416 banks on its "problem" list at the end of June, and the number is expected to grow.

FDIC officials project the deposit insurance fund will remain in the red into 2012, despite the prepaid assessments from banks. This is largely an accounting issue -- the FDIC has to count the prepaid assessments as both an asset and a liability because it is technically deferred revenue.

Another option the FDIC considered was to borrow billions of dollars from the Treasury Department. Officials felt such a move would send the wrong message to the public.

"I do think that the American people would prefer to see an end to policies that looked to the federal balance sheet as the remedy to every problem," FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said.

But for the first time, Ms. Bair said Tuesday that she had directed the agency to prepare the "mechanics" for borrowing from the Treasury in case it ever became necessary, although "today is not that day."

The evaporating deposit-insurance fund had $10.4 billion in June, the latest figure available, down from $45.2 billion in June 2008. That posed a public-relations problem for Ms. Bair. She has had to both move rapidly to close failing banks, which is costly for her agency, while retaining public confidence in the FDIC.

The rising number of bank failures has infuriated some politicians who have recently begun pressuring Ms. Bair's regulators to ease up on their increasingly close supervision of the industry.

The FDIC said banks could ask for an exemption if they didn't have the cash on hand to prepay the fees.
I like the final bolded part, if the FDIC stops regulating and closing down banks, we can all pretend they're solvent and everything's a-ok! Nevermind the fact that it's the FDIC's failure to exercise Prompt corrective action which has led to massive losses in its deposit insurance fund when it finally gets around to closing down a bank. Under PCA, banks are supposed to be shut down within 90 days after becoming critically undercapitalized if they can't improve their balance sheets, yet there are hundreds of such banks which are still open months or even more than year after they should've been closed. In fact many of the recent closures had negative capital ratios meaning the FDIC gets to cover a big chunk of the failed bank's deposits, in a few recent failures they had to cover nearly half of the deposits. Under PCA the FDIC should be taking around a 1-2% hit, yet the average damage this year has been around 25% so we know the FDIC isn't doing its job in promptly shutting down insolvent banks, and now that it's broke the politicians want them to loosen up even more which will result in even larger losses.

This has the potential to become really ugly. If enough people find out about this and figure out what it means, well, can you say "national bank run"?
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Re: The FDIC is broke

Post by MKSheppard »

I read this on Hotair.com and thought about posting it here. But you went and beat it to me!
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Re: The FDIC is broke

Post by Alyeska »

Clinton and Bush are both responsible for this. Clinton told the FDIC to stop collecting premiums from the banks, and Bush continued the policy. That means the FDIC has less money then it should have. Just think what the FDIC could have done had it been collecting premiums at the height of the mortgage crisis and housing bubble. A little slice of that pie would have gone a long ways to helping provide the FDIC with more emergency funds.
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Re: The FDIC is broke

Post by Surlethe »

If worse comes to worst, they'll just borrow the money from the Treasury, which gets its money from the Fed. That is, they'll just print money to replace the deposits at the failed banks. I'm not sure why they don't do that already; it seems to make sense, because there's not a significant inflation risk if that happens.

Edit: There's also the point, staring everyone in the face, that it's a regime of poor regulation that's exacerbating the crisis. Clearly the answer is no regulation at all!

PS- I'd also like to point out that the FDIC's work taking care of failed banks has probably done as much as anything else to prevent this downturn from becoming another Great Depression.
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Re: The FDIC is broke

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Surlethe wrote:If worse comes to worst, they'll just borrow the money from the Treasury, which gets its money from the Fed. That is, they'll just print money to replace the deposits at the failed banks. I'm not sure why they don't do that already; it seems to make sense, because there's not a significant inflation risk if that happens.
Well, this is a bit of a two part problem, maybe three parts. The US is getting pretty close to its debt ceiling again so they might not have the space to sell & monetize the debts, shouldn't be too hard for Congress to add another couple trillion to the ceiling so this isn't a serious issue. The big problem I think is perception; how will holders of US Treasury bonds, currency traders, and other such parties feel & react if the US starts printing up dollars for the FDIC to cover dead banks, and how will bank customers react when they realize the FDIC is itself insolvent? If the various parties I mentioned feel threatened and panic then the entire US economic system implodes with a chance of the '92 L.A. riots taking place in major cities complete with games of banker hangman. The powers that be aren't ready to risk that. The odds of the worst case scenario aren't very good, but the consequences are bad enough that no sane person wants to risk it.

The other part is, sad to say, the bankers in charge don't care about the FDIC, afterall, the FDIC protects the little people not the mavens of Wall Street. JP Morgan doesn't care if one of its competitors goes belly up and leaves millions of Americans without their savings, in fact JPM will dance a jig of joy as it picks over the dead carcass to add to its assets and boost quarterly profits. The same is true of Goldman-Sachs, Citibank, Wells-Fargo and all the other majors, a printed dollar going towards insuring deposits is a dollar that isn't going to them, they want first dibs on Treasury and screw the FDIC.
PS- I'd also like to point out that the FDIC's work taking care of failed banks has probably done as much as anything else to prevent this downturn from becoming another Great Depression.
So far. So far. It's still early in the game.
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Re: The FDIC is broke

Post by Uraniun235 »

The big problem I think is perception; how will holders of US Treasury bonds, currency traders, and other such parties feel & react if the US starts printing up dollars for the FDIC to cover dead banks, and how will bank customers react when they realize the FDIC is itself insolvent? If the various parties I mentioned feel threatened and panic then the entire US economic system implodes with a chance of the '92 L.A. riots taking place in major cities complete with games of banker hangman.
If the system implodes as a result of FDIC failing (whether directly by failing to cover insured assets, or indirectly by failing to maintain depositor confidence), will it really matter if anyone has money in hand?
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Re: The FDIC is broke

Post by Winston Blake »

J wrote:and how will bank customers react when they realize the FDIC is itself insolvent?
Well,
How did citizens react when they realized that the Iraq War had nothing to do with 9/11 and the WMDs were a lie?
How did citizens react when illegal wiretaps infringed on their freedoms?
How did citizens react when torture scandals destroyed U.S. international credibility?
How did citizens react when billions were funneled into the socialising the losses of the rich?
Further, how did citizens react when Obama proposed a mildly socialised healthcare system?

They'll watch TV and think whatever the TV tells them to. Else they'll change channels and think nothing of it.

Really, the best solution is to pour Pachelbel's Canon through all the media tubes and gently coo 'Everything is fine, everything will be alright, anyone who says otherwise is a fool. You're not a fool, are you? Of course not - everything will be alright, darlings'.
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Re: The FDIC is broke

Post by KrauserKrauser »

Sometimes I wish I had more artistic talent than I do.

A cartoon of Obama and Geithner standing in front of a flaming breaking apart FDIC with their hands held out saying "Move along, nothing to see here" would just be too good.

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Re: The FDIC is broke

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I'd rather see a 5k Dow at Christmas than some fake ass 10k +. Nothing seems to sink the economy quicker than when the magical money Wall Street puffs into existence, goes puff out of existence at a moments notice.
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Re: The FDIC is broke

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J wrote:The big problem I think is perception; how will holders of US Treasury bonds, currency traders, and other such parties feel & react if the US starts printing up dollars for the FDIC to cover dead banks, and how will bank customers react when they realize the FDIC is itself insolvent?
Well, I'd imagine they wouldn't react at all if the US started printing money for the FDIC to cover dead banks: that will have zero impact on the money supply, with no risk of inflation, because a bank collapse essentially means the disappearance of money: instead of the, say, $10 billion the bank's depositors thought they had, they suddenly have $1 billion. Deflation. Fed prints money for the FDIC, money supply goes from $10 billion to ... $10 billion (maybe a little less, since some big guys might have more than $250k in an account). Zero net effect.

Your average bank customer, I think, is either too stupid to realize what it means or knows that the federal government won't let the FDIC stop bailing out banks.
The other part is, sad to say, the bankers in charge don't care about the FDIC, afterall, the FDIC protects the little people not the mavens of Wall Street. JP Morgan doesn't care if one of its competitors goes belly up and leaves millions of Americans without their savings, in fact JPM will dance a jig of joy as it picks over the dead carcass to add to its assets and boost quarterly profits. The same is true of Goldman-Sachs, Citibank, Wells-Fargo and all the other majors, a printed dollar going towards insuring deposits is a dollar that isn't going to them, they want first dibs on Treasury and screw the FDIC.
True enough. We all know that rich people are disproportionately unaffected by recessions, and if Wall Street can get rent at the Treasury at the FDIC's expense, I'm sure they will try.
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Re: The FDIC is broke

Post by J »

Surlethe wrote:Well, I'd imagine they wouldn't react at all if the US started printing money for the FDIC to cover dead banks: that will have zero impact on the money supply, with no risk of inflation, because a bank collapse essentially means the disappearance of money: instead of the, say, $10 billion the bank's depositors thought they had, they suddenly have $1 billion. Deflation. Fed prints money for the FDIC, money supply goes from $10 billion to ... $10 billion (maybe a little less, since some big guys might have more than $250k in an account). Zero net effect.
While there's no net effect on the money supply there's a definite effect on the amount of debt outstanding. When the FDIC needs money from the government it calls upon its credit lines with Treasury, which then has sell a few (or a lot) billion in debt which is either sold through T-bill auctions to raise funds or outright monetized, after which the proceeds are passed back to the FDIC to cover the failures. Problem - the US is getting uncomfortably close to the saturation point for how much debt (T-bill/notes) it can sell in its Treasury auctions (which incidentally is why they're monetizing their debt and doing back door buybacks) so adding additional auctions to cover the FDIC's needs risks toppling the balance the wrong way and starting a panic sell-off, this would be the dreaded bond market dislocation. When will it happen, nobody knows, and the powers that be aren't particularly anxious to find out.
Your average bank customer, I think, is either too stupid to realize what it means or knows that the federal government won't let the FDIC stop bailing out banks.
Probably, however once again I think this is more a problem of perception. All it takes is a few people at the wrong time going "oh dear god the FDIC is broke and my bank just went under!" and between Twitter, Facebook and all the other social networking sites it won't take long for a panic & bank runs to start.
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Re: The FDIC is broke

Post by Winston Blake »

Apparently instead of printing money, they're doing... er... something else.
Link wrote:First Bernanke went to Congress and asked them to pass a law that no one would pay any attention to, let alone understand the implications of… a law allowing the Fed to pay interest on deposits. Up until that was allowed, no one left funds on deposit with the Fed… but since then, things have changed. Are you feeling it? They didn’t need to print the money. All they had to do was vacuum it up from financial institutions and individuals who were hoarding it… by paying interest on deposits held at the Federal Reserve.

Instead of printing new money, Bernanke simply got the banks to give him their “old money”. And then he used that old money to buy the assets that would inflate the Fed’s balance sheet. It’s a very technical change, and most people don’t read before they talk, so while everyone’s running around screaming: ”inflation is coming, inflation is coming,” it’s actually not. In fact, we should be so lucky to find a little inflation coming. Chief Green Shoots figured out a way to pull the banks out of their death spiral without printing the money he needed, which would have certainly led to hyperinflation. He’s sneaky… yes. But he’s no dummy, and he’s definitely got skills.

[...]

Now, with minds like this in charge of finance in Washington, would someone like to explain to me why they can’t seem to competently address the foreclosure crisis? See what I mean… if they wanted to, they could. But with the accounting rules now set to allow banks to delay write-downs of level three assets for an indefinite period of time, and plenty of government cash to keep things stable, foreclosures aren’t such a bad thing… for banks that is. For regular people, maybe not so much.
I don't really understand it, to me it sounds like a game of 'Go Johnny Go, Go, Go, Go', where Bernanke and Geithner know the rules but nobody else does.
Link wrote:MR BEST:
Don’t you know ANY card games, Doc?

DOC:
Yes – whist, knock out whist, rummy, Pontoon…

MIKE:
Oh come on! Let’s have a game of Go Johnny Go, Go, Go, Go!

MR BEST:
Fine idea, young sir!

MIKE:
I’ll just sort through these…

DOC:
I don’t know that one, either!

MIKE:
Oh, everyone knows Go, Johnny, Go, Go, Go, Go!

DOC:
Well, I don’t!

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You do! It’s like a cross between Hoover and Eight Men Down!

DOC:
Well I don’t know how to play those either!

MIKE CHUCKLES.

MR BEST:
It’s alright. We’ll just have to explain the rules to you, then.

MIKE:
It’s very simple…

MR BEST:
Jacks are worth ten, kings are worth three.

MIKE:
Apart from one eyed jacks which are wild cards!

MR BEST:
We’ll come to those in a minute.

MIKE:
Round one you get a hand of nine, round two a hand of seven…

MR BEST:
Now, two’s a wild card…

MIKE:
But we’ll come to those in a minute!

MR BEST:
Apart from diamonds which retain their face value…


MIKE:
Except the king of diamonds, obviously.

MR BEST:
Obviously! We play in sequence unless you can match a pair…or play a card in ascending or descending order.

DOC IS GETTING THOROUGHLY CONFUSED AT THIS.

MIKE:
And that’s a Go, Johnny, Go, Go, Go, Go.

MR BEST:
You stand up, pick up all the cards on the table and shout “Go, Johnny, Go, Go, Go, Go!”

MIKE:
The winner is the man with the most tricks after fifteen hands…

MR BEST:
You’ll pick up the rest as we play. Shall we say….a pound a round?

DOC:
I’m not really sure how to start…

MR BEST:
Well, just put a card on the table.

MIKE:
Come on!

MR BEST:
Hurry up, Doc!

DOC PUTS A CARD DOWN. MIKE AND MR BEST LOOK AT IT.

MIKE:
A three?

MR BEST:
You can’t lead with a THREE!

MIKE:
This is Go, Johnny, Go, Go, Go, Go, not Bamalama-Fizz-Vaj!

DOC:
Sorry.

MR BEST:
Start again!
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Re: The FDIC is broke

Post by KrauserKrauser »

Isn't there something in the Fed charter that forbids them from owning things?

I know jack shit about Fed regulations but the Fed suddenly being able to take back money seems like bad news.
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Re: The FDIC is broke

Post by Surlethe »

KrauserKrauser wrote:Isn't there something in the Fed charter that forbids them from owning things?
That would be why Bernanke had to go to Congress to get them to let the Fed pay interest on deposits, if Winston's article is to be believed.
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Re: The FDIC is broke

Post by KrauserKrauser »

So if I follow correctly Bernanke is using the current financial crisis to turn the Fed into the US Bank 2.0?

I guess it makes sense, why help out Goldman Sachs when you can simply make your own mega bank instead.
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