Darth Wong wrote:
Terrorist campaigns have a 99% failure rate? How is this established? Don't ethnic or political groups which use terrorism often achieve at least some of their goals?
I’m hard pressed to think of any example in which terrorism has worked actually within the last 150 years, except for a period of success by Pablo Escobar, which ended when the Columbian government took off the gloves, used his own tactics against him and then splattered his brains across a rooftop. And hell even then all Escobar got was his precious ban on extradition, something which had widespread support for other reasons, and which many nations have independent of any terrorist campaigns. But it did him no good in the end at all anyway.
I discount any examples older then that because the fact is the world simply operated under different rules and slaughtering civilians was normal anyway. The starting 150 year old example would be the KKK, and while they managed to kill a fair number of people in the end they got broken up, then after turning to political means accomplished far more with jim crow laws then they did with open violence.
At best it’s been an ajunt to successful insurgencies which had widespread support and thousands of armed fighters who can actually take to the streets and give battle. Its basically a delaying tactic. Such tactics are a vital part of militarily strategies… but they don’t do a damn thing when you have nothing else. Each attack merely hardens public resolve against future attacks. Thus the need for spectacular events each of increasing scale, as Al-Qaeda very well understood
Bombings-arsons-assassinations-sabotage as a means of attempting to alter national policy by a small minority group just doesn’t work. While in some cases terrorist groups have had certain goals accomplished while they still exist as organizations, usually that is because those goals were actually reasonable things that would have happened anyway and which are in many cases actually delayed by the terrorist campaign, like say the power sharing government in Northern Ireland. And hell even that is a full terrorist failure since the IRA always wanted unity with the rest of Ireland, not a stronger local government that London can still pull the plug on at any time it chooses.
Meanwhile it’s easy to find cases in which terrorism has backfired enormously, like the Moscow apartment bombings which killed hundreds in 1999, and caused the Russian government to blast the crap out of Chechnya and destroy any pretext of independence it ever had. Now all the same band of assholes can manage is derailing a train, vs. fielding tanks and artillery and armed helicopters. Heck Oklahoma City destroyed the militia movement in the US, even though most of it never even had terrorist leanings in the first place. Terrorist certainly did the Tamale Tigers no good either, and it was a huge factor in why the Anbar Awakening could take hold in Iraq even when US troops killed hoards of civilians as well. In those cases the terrorists actually had the aid of large conventional and convetionalish forces too.
This really should be no surprise. If massive bombing raids involving thousands of aircraft didn’t break public moral or government resolve, nor did a single atomic bomb, then how the hell is blowing up a train going to do anything? That’s why I’m glad someone (I forget who and it doesn’t matter) invoked Churchill’s old line from the height of the blitz after the 2005 bombings.
"London can take it.
"This cult of special forces is as sensible as to form a Royal Corps of Tree Climbers and say that no soldier who does not wear its green hat with a bunch of oak leaves stuck in it should be expected to climb a tree"
— Field Marshal William Slim 1956