SDN World 3 Commentary Thread I

[K. A. Pital]

Yup, I don't want to play the opposing forces either. It's just that in a war you have to destroy and rout the forces of your enemy. If your enemy continues to claim a unit still existing regardless of anything you do, this wouldn't work too well either.

I'm not going to play the entire game locked in this war, anyway. I warned Beowulf I would attack his nation even before game start because he claimed a huge swath of Russia and denied me convenient Pacific access. The sooner I get over that war and continue the industrial development of the USSR, the better.

[CmdrWilkens]

I don't really want to wander into the Stas/beo boondogle but isn't the first rule of STGOD play your own dudes, never play your opponents? Doesn't this just flat out solve most of the issues that have come up so far? Can't we just draw a line in the sand here, say "only play with your own toys" and then just drop rocks on people who don't follow it?

The problem is in conflict you always have to play your opponents a little bit. Now the old schools STGODs tended to be pretty good with this because there were two simple ideas to combat writing:
A) Never claim total and clear cut victory
B) Always leave at least some of the defending forces alive to counter attack
So yes there should be a little playing the opponents forces (its inevitable) but those two maxims should always be at the forefront.

[Norseman]

Seriously I think that we are going to need moderation for these posts, maybe some dice throws with odds that both can agree on (or the moderator can, after consultation perhaps, decide on a good set of rolls). Unless of course you want to go all the way and war game this sucker.

[Thanas]

Germany is a tad concerned about Scandinavias military built up, especially since not a single word of what Scandinavia wants to do with it has reached Germany.

[Ryan Thunder]

I don't really want to wander into the Stas/beo boondogle but isn't the first rule of STGOD play your own dudes, never play your opponents? Doesn't this just flat out solve most of the issues that have come up so far? Can't we just draw a line in the sand here, say "only play with your own toys" and then just drop rocks on people who don't follow it?

Yeah. Beowulf seems to be incapable of realizing this, no matter how many fucking times he's reminded, though.

[Czechmate]

Germany is a tad concerned about Scandinavias military built up, especially since not a single word of what Scandinavia wants to do with it has reached Germany.

Scandinavia was not aware it had to justify internal national affairs to the Reich...

EDIT: ...given that they are not official allies or signatories of any cooperation treaty with Scandinavia.

[MKSheppard]

The Sheppo blockade.

Purple is about 2,500 miles away from Shepistan where the majority of my fleet units etc will be.

Green is abotu 5,000+ miles away from shepistan; and there are one/two cruisers operating there presently as sort of long range patrols to add to communist difficulties in countering blockade.

Countries who will be sunk on sight, or taken as prizes:

Soviet
Dutch
Brazilian

Countries who will be inspected vigoriously due to communist influence on their governments.

Colombia
Peru-Bolivia
Congo

[Steve]

Heh, hope Fort Kamehameha and Hawkins don't seem too extravagant. I'd gone a bit too far in my first plan....

[Siege]

The Yishuv fears an overland attack on the Suez Canal? Such an attack would have to go through Mecca and Medina, which would spur the entirety of the Arabian peninsula plus a good chunk of the rest of the Muslim world into a frenzied Jihad against the attacker. And that's ignoring the terrain itself and the 30 active and 150 reserve divisions that'd be in the way.

The Suez Canal is impossible to attack across either land or sea. It sits in the heartland of the Sultanate, it is guarded by the greatest fortifications in all of Egypt, most of the Sultan's crack troops are quartered only a stone's throw away, and it is quite literally surrounded by the entirety of the Sultanate's armed forces...

[loomer]

Yeah, anyone trying for that, what with defiling Mecca and all, would suddenly be facing down Afghanistan's 30 divisions of reservist infantry.

...oh god, a world war is just getting more and more likely. Damn this divisive! blend of ideological and economic differences!

[Coyote]

Ohh, that's right-- I hadn't thought about the rest of the Muslim world of infidels defile Mecca-- I just thought of the Sultanate reaction. Hmmm...

I first started writing that post with the idea of an overland invasion with long supply lines, like the North Afrikan campaign in WW2-- the more one side retreated, the closer they got to their supplies and the easier it got to rally a counter attack... whereas a successful attacker could push an enemy back across miles of desert, only to outrun his own supply and have the tables turned, etc...

It might be a "fun" campaign, but it would bog down. About halfway through, I realized that an overland invasion would not work, for these reasons and more (and now add the Muslim reactions worldwide) but I figured that a raid, OTOH, might be carried out by specialized commando forces. I changed the words if not the tone to reflect that.

The Yishuv isn't so much worried about a realistic "take-and-'hold" attack by land or sea; they're thinking more along the lines of a raid that would sink shipping in the canal and render it useless for awhile. Let's face it, between Shepistan and the Dominion, either is crazy enough to try at any given time.

Really, the Yishuv just wants to be a contributing partner to regional defense and if the Sultanate asks, show that they've taken possibilities into consideration and are ready to do what is needed, etc. It's more of a show of solidarity than anything else, the chances of either happening are slim to none.

[Steve]

As of now I figure that Stas' attacks broke through the Manchurian lines in the space of a day due to the weight of the attack. The Manchurian defenses would have been hard to knock out and did a fair job in inflicting losses. The 37mm anti-tank guns from those heavy forts in the attack zone would have proven quite nasty to the tanks making the attack. But the Russian forces had enough artillery and enough mass to puncture.

Day 2 would likely be spent widening the breach for the most part while cavalry moved up to scout out exact positions for Line Yi and the approaches to it, as well as picking off any Manchurian troops fleeing their positions. Infantry would move through as well but it can't move far until a supply line is ensured.

Given the march of 10 miles to Line Yi - apparently Beo moved it further up - I figure Day 3 would see the first attacks on it, but it may take some more time to bring more troops up into attack positions to attempt a major assault. No sooner than, say, Day 4, giving an extra day to build up supply dumps on the Manchurians ide of the Argun and to move some artillery further in to shell Line Yi.

Since the Manchurians began mobilizing, say, 24 hours before the Soviet attack, they would have army formations starting to arrive near the front soon. The distances are longish after all but they had reservist formations in activation training already and regulars are generally posted more thickly in the north.

Is there any objection to my determination? Please provide any historic examples you feel contradict it.

[Coyote]

How is horse fodder supply looking at that time of year? Horse fodder was a huge amount of the British supply train in WW1. The speed with which cavalry outstrips its supplies may be another gold star for tanks as nations watch this universe's Great War unfold in some pretty difficult terrain and under difficult conditions. Cavalry may make some significant advances at first, but it'll peter out and become attrition warfare.

This war will definitely underscore logistics as the lynchpin of future success. The Soviets have a big task ahead of them, and it isn't easy on the Manchurians either. IIRC a lot of that are, at least closer to Korea, is definitely not "tank country".

The mobility phase of this may not last long. Tanks at this point are still not the Blitzkrieg machines they will become. Especially if the other side has enough to make their enemies move cautiously.

The Soviets have the sheer manpower and will, as well as the industry. But the Manchurians are retreating over their home territory; they know every rock and have time to prepare, and a desperate population that will probably defend their homes (unless the Manchu leaders have done something to make the Sovs "greeted as liberators" like the Ukrainians did --at first-- to lead elements of the Germans in WW2). This will not be won on the battlefield at all, I think, but at the negotiating table.

[K. A. Pital]

Given the march of 10 miles to Line Yi - apparently Beo moved it further up

Uh...? *shocked* Fluid defences? *smiles*

Is there any objection to my determination? Please provide any historic examples you feel contradict it.

None. I would like to know my losses. I know that a week of fighting of an entire Army Group against heavy fortifications consumes up one division' worth of losses, roughly (that's how much the Soviet group lost in Finland constantly storming the Mannerheim line for 1 week when they finally got the necessary large-caliber artillery support with 81 guns above 203mm caliber - however, not without results either, destroying 162 fortifications of them 52 concrete pillboxes). In my view even one week with enough artillery support should be quite draining, though breaking the enemy defences.

One division's worth of losses for a week yields roughly 2000 soldiers dying every day for the first week of the war while I claw through Beowulf's fortifications. Maybe slightly less because I'm doing it in summer, and so not so many soldiers will die from freezing being wounded (in IRL Finnish war, around 40% died due to climate, freezing or incapable of being delivered even to field hospitals due to deep snow and mud); also, storming forts would be easier in summer.

Say, 1200 to 1500 people dying each day of this first week of advance, on my side. Grim math of war.

As for tanks, 10% didn't take part in the attack due to tech. issues as I already specified. Of those which made it into battle, I'd say about a dozen light tanks on each front knocked out in the first two days of the battle, in total 20-30 tanks lost due to enemy action. Mendeleev heavy tanks, now - say, two lost to enemy heavy artillery, about ten went out of service due to tech. issues, but as the advance rolls on they just broke down and became stationary - they will be repaired. A total of 12 heavy tanks currently out of action.

6 M-24 seaplanes lost in the North to Beo's fighters; routine flights stopped until 46 fighters arrive from the West. One Shkval-class monitor lost to a mine. In the South, I'd say ten R-1s, one Ilya Muromets and four Fokkers D.XI lost to enemy action.

Objections?

[Steve]

The logistics issue is the one I'm mostly concerned with in determining not just success but tempo of operations. The Soviets break through Line Yat, sure, good for them... now they have to move up supplies to commence an attack on the next defensive line, and every passing day brings more Manchurian soldiers up to reinforce Line Yat. And they're doing this thousands of miles from their main defense plants - though I grant that places like Irkutsk and Chita could have their own to help with the situation - while the Manchurians have the advantage of the shorter supply line.

Hailar, which is about 60 miles from the Argun, may be not so easy to take as the Soviets hope.

And Stas, that casualty rate is acceptable. It might have been heavier the first two days - reflecting actually attacking Line Yi, both to achieve breakthrough and then to widen it to prevent harassment of supply trains - then tapering off in Days 3-4 or so, reflecting solely skirmishes by the cavalry and deaths from troops too near the Manchurian artillery range at Line Yi - then it picks up again at Day 5-6 when you commence operations to hit Line Yi. Or if you attack Yi on Day 4 that would be when the casualties tick back upward.

[K. A. Pital]

The Soviets break through Line Yat, sure, good for them... now they have to move up supplies to commence an attack on the next defensive line, and every passing day brings more Manchurian soldiers up to reinforce Line Yat. And they're doing this thousands of miles from their main defense plants - though I grant that places like Irkutsk and Chita could have their own to help with the situation - while the Manchurians have the advantage of the shorter supply line.

Actually, I get ammunition and a hefty share of food supplies from Mongolia (from Nisleel Khuree, IRL Ulan Bataar, to Ulan-Ude in the USSR and from there to Chita). The Mongols assist me economically because the USSR would allow them to have a swath of seacoast if we are successful.

Now, I stacked up supplies and ammunition for about a month of fighting at Chita. After that month passes, I'll have to ship ammo, shells, etc. by the Trans-Siberian to replenish the stocks.

P.S. I'll let Beowulf raise objections and only then post into the IC thread to solidify the advances. Also, I wonder how much damage would do dumping around a thousand floating mines into the river Amur and use it's stream as a natural weapon against downstream targets (Shep? Need your advice). I.e. is there a good chance to sink enemy ships, if any present, and blow up his bridges.

[Steve]

The Soviets break through Line Yat, sure, good for them... now they have to move up supplies to commence an attack on the next defensive line, and every passing day brings more Manchurian soldiers up to reinforce Line Yat. And they're doing this thousands of miles from their main defense plants - though I grant that places like Irkutsk and Chita could have their own to help with the situation - while the Manchurians have the advantage of the shorter supply line.

Actually, I get ammunition and a hefty share of food supplies from Mongolia (from Nisleel Khuree, IRL Ulan Bataar, to Ulan-Ude in the USSR and from there to Chita). The Mongols assist me economically because the USSR would allow them to have a swath of seacoast if we are successful.

Now, I stacked up supplies and ammunition for about a month of fighting at Chita. After that month passes, I'll have to ship ammo, shells, etc. by the Trans-Siberian to replenish the stocks.

*nod* So a month worth of stores, barring any mishaps like a barge hitting an uncleared mine or a pontoon bridge failing, etc. Not that I'd inflict that on you. Well, not without rolling a 2 or 3 out of 12 to simulate a Soviet difficulty.

Though, a sea coast? I mean, I suppose that if the USSR were so wildly, insanely successful that it conquered all of Manchuria without China becoming involved. Otherwise I thought your goal was simply to get more Pacific coast?

[K. A. Pital]

You see, the Soviet Union would not attach the territories captured to itself. Instead, a Manchurian Soviet Socialist Republic would be created, and that MSSR would be a puppet state that would grant Pacific ports. I'll allow Mongolia to have a lifeline (something like a railroad and possibly one port) to the East. I certainly don't want to capture entire Manchuria, and I wouldn't aim to take Korea or anything close to China or something.

I would demand of the Manchurian government to cease the lands I need through diplomacy even after having moderate success, and will continue to do it until I have actually captured them. Actually, even taking Amur alone (and everything north of it) is good enough for me.

The task is to finish hostilities in around one-two years, and lose no more than 2 billion roubles on that, so that the war is economically rationalized (it shouldn't become more expensive than a permafrost railway to Kamchatka which Beowulf suggessted).

P.S. As for Beowulf's continuous refusal to admit the Russians could call Amur, well, "Amur", despite it being in the territory of a foreign nation, that's just stupid. Russia calls Bejing Pekin, and uses the Mongolian name Dalainor for lake Hulun despite all of those being in territories far away from Russia. Danube is called Dunai, and so forth. Chang Jiang is called Yangtze by most other nations. Hope we can finally get over that matter and he stops being dense.

[Thanas]

Germany is a tad concerned about Scandinavias military built up, especially since not a single word of what Scandinavia wants to do with it has reached Germany.

Scandinavia was not aware it had to justify internal national affairs to the Reich...

EDIT: ...given that they are not official allies or signatories of any cooperation treaty with Scandinavia.

C'mon. A country either plans to or has already mobilized close to 4/5 of a million men - and has borders with Germany - and the only logistical supportable attack of that size would be at Germany - and you think germany would not be alarmed?

[Steve]

He probably should have specified where they are, as in our IM conversations it seems he's not raising his Danish reserves.

[Thanas]

No matter what he plans to, an army that size cannot be committed to an attack in Scandinavia. The logistics won't allow that, they never did. Which again leaves Germany as the only logical transit point....hence me being worried since no requests for transit have been made so far.

unless he plans to go by sea, but you cannot transfer a million strong army via the sea immediately. Not without leaving equipment behind and halting all merchant shipping in the baltic. And imagine the confusion that would ensue if my HSF has to pass through the Kattegatt for a deployment or training maneuvers...

[Steve]

True, true.

[Czechmate]

First, Steve is right. I should've mentioned that none of the reservists being raised are in Denmark.

Second, what makes you think I'm preparing for a fight against Germany? I already risked part of my Navy to support you before. Northwest Germany isn't even worth the trouble of an invasion, either.

A strong militarily build-up is perfectly justified by the chaos erupting around the world and the blatant Soviet land grab in the Far East. My territory stretches across the baltic and north atlantic and borders half a dozen major nations, including the Soviet Union, and will require a lot of men to keep protected.

It's simply unfortunate that you aren't taking into account that the foreign affairs of Scandinavia do not revolve around Germany.

[Thanas]

First, Steve is right. I should've mentioned that none of the reservists being raised are in Denmark.

Second, what makes you think I'm preparing for a fight against Germany? I already risked part of my Navy to support you before. Northwest Germany isn't even worth the trouble of an invasion, either.

A strong militarily build-up is perfectly justified by the chaos erupting around the world and the blatant Soviet land grab in the Far East. My territory stretches across the baltic and north atlantic and borders half a dozen major nations, including the Soviet Union, and will require a lot of men to keep protected.

It's simply unfortunate that you aren't taking into account that the foreign affairs of Scandinavia do not revolve around Germany.

Frankly, OOC I have no reason to worry about you.

IC however, the only way you can support an army that size logistically out of your territory is Germany. Which is why I am getting IC a bit concerned. Therefore, in IC, my character prepares a bit of a counter-mobilization. Don't be alarmed by it, if I were to suddenly raise a million strong army that has to march through your territory to get any kind of decent logistical support I bet you would have done the same had I not told you about my intentions.

[Lonestar]

Annnnddd....we're finding a use for some of the less capable volunteers.