90% drop in rocket attacks since Cast Lead

[[R_H]]

Ynet News

IDF data shows 242 rockets, mortar shells fired at Israel from Gaza since forces left Strip almost one year ago. Since end of operation, IDF struck 143 targets in Gaza
Hanan Greenberg
Published: 12.09.09, 22:13 / Israel News
Since the end of Operation Cast Lead almost one year ago, there has been a 90% decline in rocket attacks on Israel from Gaza. According to IDF data, since the last of the Israeli soldiers left the Strip, 242 rockets, mortar shells, and Grad missiles have been fired at Israel. Only a marginal part of these exploded in populated areas.

According to estimates, Hamas will continue to maintain quiet on the front at this point. But the IDF is also preparing for other scenarios, out of the understanding that the security situation could quickly deteriorate.

"While Hamas may not be firing rockets at this time, it is is intensively working to gather strength, mainly by smuggling weapons through the Philadelphi route.

Since the end of the operation, 91 attempted attacks on IDF forces on the Gaza border have been recorded. Most of the incidents were of small arms shootings.

The IDF, which also deals with defensive activity, has been required to respond to the rocket attacks. IDF numbers show that since the end of the operation, 143 targets have been hit in Gaza, including Hamas facilities, tunnels and terrorists.

Alongside the defensive activity, the IDF is also preparing for the possibility of an escalation in the Strip, and a situation in which a similar operation may be required in the future.
The alignment, by Gaza Division Chief Brigadier-General Eyal Eisenberg and GOC Southern Command Major-General Yoav Galant, is similar to the military's alignment in Cast Lead, in the preparation of the forces and the studying of the enemy.

The Home Front Command continues to prepare what it calls the "second front" in the event of an escalation.

In recent months schools and kindergartens in Sderot have been fortified, and the construction of some 1,500 bomb shelters in Gaza-vicinity communities has been completed.

[Darth Yan]

and of course shep will try to use this to justify it. It could be that the attack damaged Hamas's credibility among their constiuents.

[Sarevok]

and of course shep will try to use this to justify it. It could be that the attack damaged Hamas's credibility among their constiuents.

Why would they need credibility among their constituents to fire rockets ? Is not the whole idea the other way ? Hamas fires rockets and retaliates for Palestinian deaths to gain credibility as opposed to their ineffectual and weak predecessors.

[Coyote]

No, I was thinking along the same lines. Remember, Hezbollah in south Lebanaon got full of themselves and attacked Israel a couple years earlier, and Israel spanked them back. While the fight was carried out poorly by the IDF, and the actual combat was tactically inconclusive, it did make Hezbollah politically weaker because after all that fighting and posturing, nothing was gained by it --and south Lebanon was in ruins. So the Lebanese were like, "Hey, thanks a lot... assholes".

Something similar may have happened here, at least in the short term.

[bobalot]

No, I was thinking along the same lines. Remember, Hezbollah in south Lebanaon got full of themselves and attacked Israel a couple years earlier, and Israel spanked them back. While the fight was carried out poorly by the IDF, and the actual combat was tactically inconclusive, it did make Hezbollah politically weaker because after all that fighting and posturing, nothing was gained by it --and south Lebanon was in ruins. So the Lebanese were like, "Hey, thanks a lot... assholes".

Something similar may have happened here, at least in the short term.

No, Hezbollah's support grew in groups outside of their traditional Shia base. (Source)

[Tellos]

Much as I find the losses of life terrible and the isrealies use of settlments where they break law to be bad I think the palestinians asked for the rather endless fihting. When they voted in Hamas they knew they were people trying to kill other people and they open stated their goal at this point any deaths that happen they have no right to be sad or upset by they asked for war by electing people who stated thye want war and want only that they never claimed to my knowledge that they would stop. The 90% reduction is likely temporary and I doubt it'll last more than a few months or maybe as high as a year but until Hamas gets it through their skull that they will never win or the IDF simply bombards whole sections of Hamas held territory into ruins and says their not aplogizing and will do it again we will see a back and forth until the end of time. I hope I am wrong but so far neither side hasm anaged a real peace process and Hamas has violated their own cease fires when it suits them.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Much as I find the losses of life terrible and the isrealies use of settlments where they break law to be bad I think the palestinians asked for the rather endless fihting. When they voted in Hamas they knew they were people trying to kill other people and they open stated their goal at this point any deaths that happen they have no right to be sad or upset by they asked for war by electing people who stated thye want war and want only that they never claimed to my knowledge that they would stop. The 90% reduction is likely temporary and I doubt it'll last more than a few months or maybe as high as a year but until Hamas gets it through their skull that they will never win or the IDF simply bombards whole sections of Hamas held territory into ruins and says their not aplogizing and will do it again we will see a back and forth until the end of time. I hope I am wrong but so far neither side hasm anaged a real peace process and Hamas has violated their own cease fires when it suits them.

Would you please use correct punctuation and not a massive wall of text?

[Tellos]

Sorry about that my buttons locked up and It made my entire post very bad thank you for pointing that out I appreciate it. here is the post fixed up some so it should be easier to read.

Much as I find the losses of life terrible and the Israelis use of settlements where they break law, I also think the Palestinians asked for the endless fighting When they voted in Hamas, they knew they were people trying to kill other people and they open stated their goal at this point any deaths that happen they have no right to be sad or upset about they asked for war by electing people who stated they want war and do not plan to change their position to my knowledge. The 90% reduction is likely temporary and I doubt it'll last more than a few months or maybe as high as a year, but until Hamas gets it through their skull that they will never win or the IDF simply bombards whole sections of Hamas held territory into ruins and says their not apologizing and will do it again we will see a back and forth until the end of time. I hope I am wrong but so far neither side has managed a real peace process and Hamas has violated their own cease fires when it suits them.

[Darth Wong]

If the Palestinians laid down their arms, the Israelites would just happily continue building settlements. They'd continue slowly squeezing the Palestinians into smaller and smaller pockets of land, walled off, isolated with checkpoints, and under-supplied with water. And the world would shrug and do nothing.

[cosmicalstorm]

It seems to me that they will be pushed away from the areas they currently inhabit no matter what they do. I'm wondering how this conflict will progress into the future, can Israel just continue to expand forever or will some other regional power be able to halt them at some point?

[Coyote]

The Arab states, for the most part, have decided to quit challenging Israel militarily, although they don't have much of a problem supplying the Palestinians and letting them do the fighting.

What is really needed is a powerful third party to step in and tell Israel to knock it off with the damn Settlements-- a third party that is powerful enough to enforce that, and willing to do the enforcing. Right now, the only country with that kind of leverage is the USA, but there is a powerful pro-Israel lobby in the USA with a lot of voting power. A lot of these people are not just religious Jews who want to beat up Palestinians, but also religiously "neutral" Jews who want to "support Israel" and don't stop to think about what that truly means, and of course a teeming horde of evangelical Christians who believe that they have to support Israel for the purpose of provoking Armageddon and opening the door to bring back Jesus.

[Shroom Man 777]

Could the European Union be such a third party, haven't they recently made big statements regarding IvP? Or would Germany's collective guilt re: Holocaust stymie that? How about Russia? Or China?

[CJvR]

Arguing settlements in relation to Hamas and Gaza is rather pointless since there are no Israeli settlements there. They were all abandoned and destroyed when the area reverted to Palestinian control.

[Coyote]

Could the European Union be such a third party, haven't they recently made big statements regarding IvP? Or would Germany's collective guilt re: Holocaust stymie that? How about Russia? Or China?

The problem with the EU in general, and Russia as well, is that these countries have a... troubled histories with dealing with the Jews fairly, or at least that's the perception. One of the reasons that America has such an advantage with Israel is because we don't have that taint in our history (antisemitism certainly exists in the USA, but compared to the thousand years and government-sanctioned antisemitism of Europe, ours is paltry in comparison).*

China would probably be dismissed as someone who has no business interfereing in the area, although that might actually make them ideal partners as well.

[EDIT]: Actually, the problem with China is that they may be too impartial. Neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians would accept them as arbitrators. The Israelis have very little internal leverage with China (no pro-Israel voting bloc) so they fear that the Chinese would come up with a solution that would favor the Palestinians. The Palestinians fear the close commercial and military ties Israel has with the PRC (One of the few times Israel thumbed its nose at American interests was for a lucrative arms deal with the Chinese). The Palestinans do not have this kind of economic partnership with the PRC and could not offer it in the near future, so they probably feel that the Chinese would throw favor behind an Israeli plan.







*I'm just pointing out the perception problems with Europeans telling Jews what to do. I'm not saying that the perception is valid, or that everyone in Israel adheres to the perception, just that it is there and has been used in the past. The whole "criticism of Israel = anti-Semitism" argument, basically.

[cosmicalstorm]

So basically nobody is going to do anything about the Israeli expansion.

How much time will it take before they have completed the expulsion of the Palestinians?
And does anyone know how they will deal with the Arabs currently in possession of Israeli citizenship? I remember that they elected some guy (Avigdor?) who said some pretty harsh things about them.

(I'm sorry to be asking a lot of questions, but on every other messageboard I have ever tried to ask these questions the topic has invariably descended into dirty flame-wars.)

[The Grim Squeaker]

So basically nobody is going to do anything about the Israeli expansion.

Probably around the same time someone deals with the rocket attacks or suicide bombers. No one wants to get their hands dirty with either side.

How much time will it take before they have completed the expulsion of the Palestinians?

Expulsion...to where?
No country wants them, and they're currently staying where they are, and have been for the past 60 odd years. If their net population was shrinking you might have a case

And does anyone know how they will deal with the Arabs currently in possession of Israeli citizenship?

Er, deal with? They're citizens, same as everyone else, they even have greater rights in the fact that they're exempted from conscription.

I remember that they elected some guy (Avigdor?) who said some pretty harsh things about them.

Probably Avigdor Leiberman, head of the (relatively) far right wing Russians/right wing party. Also our new minister of foreign affairs ("eye roll"). He's a nut, and panders to his own demographic, that doesn't necessarily mean that he believes or even intends to do anything from what he proclaims to that much of a degree.

(I'm sorry to be asking a lot of questions, but on every other messageboard I have ever tried to ask these questions the topic has invariably descended into dirty flame-wars.)

other?

[Darth Wong]

How much time will it take before they have completed the expulsion of the Palestinians?

They can't complete this operation. The long-term goal seems to be to emulate the American example, and slowly herd the remaining Palestinian population onto reserves.

The interesting question is what they will do when assimilated Israeli Arabs outnumber Israeli Jews, which is projected to happen sometime this century if current trends continue. If and when that happens, I expect to see Israel openly throw democracy into the ditch and institute some kind of sliding-scale apartheid.

[Thanas]

To answer another question raised in the thread - there is no way Germany will ever intervene. Can you imagine the global storm this will cause if German troops shoot a jewish fanatic trying to kill palastineans?

Nevermind that Israel barely got over Wager (well, they still haven't, really), so I do not expect them to take a German peacekeeping force well.

[Guardsman Bass]

How much time will it take before they have completed the expulsion of the Palestinians?

They can't complete this operation. The long-term goal seems to be to emulate the American example, and slowly herd the remaining Palestinian population onto reserves.

That's probably the idea - herd them on to some densely populated enclaves where they can be controlled, isolated, and completely cut off if they do anything violent (like what Hamas has done in Gaza, or even rioting). And if thousands of them, including those with money and the skills that would be necessary to build a Palestinian state end up saying, "Fuck this - I'm leaving", well, all the better from their (the "Greater Israel" crowd) view.

The interesting question is what they will do when assimilated Israeli Arabs outnumber Israeli Jews, which is projected to happen sometime this century if current trends continue. If and when that happens, I expect to see Israel openly throw democracy into the ditch and institute some kind of sliding-scale apartheid.

That's only if you include Gaza and the West Bank as a mass of potential citizens. The population of Israeli Arabs in Israel proper is, if I recall correctly, supposed to level off at somewhere around 25% in the next century.

Of course, at the way they're going, they'll make a separate Palestinians state in the West Bank impossible (if it ever was possible), and we'll end up in your scenario.

[Tellos]

This is why I wished the United States my own country would grow a pair for one moment stop beating up on every tiny nation who cannot harm us, stand up and tell Israel we will cease recognizing them as a nation unless they abide by international law and cease their settlements. If they continue we should disarm Israel and force them to fight on the same level as those they used our military aid to bully. While I am not against them defending themselves I am against them pushing the Palestinian's around. I think this harkens back to my views that we should leave all these nations alone lock them in their region with each other and force them to get their shit together. Trouble is much as I would feel good about doing something it always back fires Japan was a fluke in fixing problems and everything else the US gets stuck into becomes a blood bath.

Whats worse is that we seem stuck on the idea of being world police who we are not suited for nor do we have a right to be. And where is the UN? Oh yes their spinelessly doing nothing with the billions we send them and the armies we offer them. I guess to stop my rambling before I just piss everybody off I'll say we need to either stay out or do something serious about this not more pointless talks and photo ops.

[Darth Wong]

So basically nobody is going to do anything about the Israeli expansion.

Probably around the same time someone deals with the rocket attacks or suicide bombers. No one wants to get their hands dirty with either side.

The difference is that only one of the two sides is affluent and comfortable. It's a lot more difficult to apply political pressure to people who are already mired in deprivation, which is why I have always felt that if anyone is ever going to end this (which I do not expect in my lifetime), it would have to be the Israelis first.

[cosmicalstorm]

So basically nobody is going to do anything about the Israeli expansion.

Probably around the same time someone deals with the rocket attacks or suicide bombers. No one wants to get their hands dirty with either side.

How much time will it take before they have completed the expulsion of the Palestinians?

Expulsion...to where?
No country wants them, and they're currently staying where they are, and have been for the past 60 odd years. If their net population was shrinking you might have a case

And does anyone know how they will deal with the Arabs currently in possession of Israeli citizenship?

Er, deal with? They're citizens, same as everyone else, they even have greater rights in the fact that they're exempted from conscription.

I remember that they elected some guy (Avigdor?) who said some pretty harsh things about them.

Probably Avigdor Leiberman, head of the (relatively) far right wing Russians/right wing party. Also our new minister of foreign affairs ("eye roll"). He's a nut, and panders to his own demographic, that doesn't necessarily mean that he believes or even intends to do anything from what he proclaims to that much of a degree.

(I'm sorry to be asking a lot of questions, but on every other messageboard I have ever tried to ask these questions the topic has invariably descended into dirty flame-wars.)

other?

Well perhaps expulsion was a bad way of putting it, what I'm trying to figure out is if they are trying to annex those parts that are Palestina and how much time this will take. And yes, I realize flame wars about this subject have happened on here too but there seems to be very strict rules here.

How much time will it take before they have completed the expulsion of the Palestinians?

They can't complete this operation. The long-term goal seems to be to emulate the American example, and slowly herd the remaining Palestinian population onto reserves.

The interesting question is what they will do when assimilated Israeli Arabs outnumber Israeli Jews, which is projected to happen sometime this century if current trends continue. If and when that happens, I expect to see Israel openly throw democracy into the ditch and institute some kind of sliding-scale apartheid.

Well it's going to be both horrifying and interesting to see this cesspool of a conflict play out over the next decades.

[Coyote]

Well it's going to be both horrifying and interesting to see this cesspool of a conflict play out over the next decades.

Not really, actually. There are many sad truths about this situation, but the saddest truth of all is that there are a lot of powerful people on both sides who have found a way to profit off the situation exactly as it is-- either in money, power or prestige-- and so things won't change. It will continue to lurch this way and that, neither resolving nor coming to a head, and we'll be in much the same place here in ten years, barring some dramatic entry by a third party.

[MKSheppard]

Right now, the status quo will continue, because the Israelis have managed to efficiently wall off the Arabs from any possible Jewish center of population -- which has all but eliminated suicide bombings, forcing the Arabs into ineffectual mortaring and rocketing.

Put bluntly, the Jews control all the cards now, especially after 9/11; making the US strongly more sympathetic to the Jewish side than the Arab one. I certainly was far more sympathetic to the Arab side before 9/11 -- then I saw them celebrating in the west bank.

So what's likely to continue is a state of no war, no peace, until something serious happens, like Iran strikes Israel, or Mubrurak dies in Egypt, causing an Islamist takeover of the place.

[Siege]

The problem with possible EU pressure isn't just that Europeans are easily made to look bad vis-a-vis our history with the Jews; it's more that no-one seems to care enough to make a point of it. There are probably a thousand political and economic issues, most of them internal, that take precedence over taking a stand in the Israel-Palestine conflict, and to add insult to injury most folks seem to be sick and tired of the Middle East in general and Israel specifically. I think as a whole the EU is more sympathetic to the Palestinians than the USA but the perpetual inability of the Palestinians to get their crap, and more importantly their PR, together seems to have driven most people to just not give a shit any more.