Iranian incursion into Iraq

[Quetzalcoatl]

This is pretty shocking, and I suspect a taste of things to come. I'm astonished that the story hasn't been more widely reported by major news outlets. The Beeb has the following:

Iran troops 'seize Iraq oil well'
Iranian troops have entered southern Iraqi territory and taken control of an oil well, reports say.

An Iraqi official played down the incident, saying the area was abandoned and right on a disputed border section.

Iranian soldiers crossed the border and raised an Iranian flag over the Fakkah oil field, a US military spokesman told the AFP news agency.

But an Iranian oil company spokesman denied the accusation, saying no troops had taken control of any oil well.

"The company denies Iranian soldiers taking control of any oil well inside Iraqi territory," the National Iranian Oil Company spokesman was quoted as saying by Iranian media.

Confirmation

Iraq's Deputy Interior Minister confirmed the Iranians stayed in Iraq and were in control of the well.

“ We are awaiting orders from our leader ”
Ahmed Ali al-Khafaji Deputy Interior Minister
Earlier it was reported that they had withdrawn back across the border.

Deputy Interior Minister Ahmed Ali al-Khafaji initially told the Reuters news agency the reports of the Iranian incursion were not true.

But Mr Khafaji later confirmed the incursion had taken place, and said 11 Iranians had dug-in at the oil well and had not left.

"At 3:30 this afternoon, 11 Iranian soldiers infiltrated the Iran-Iraq border and took control of the oil well. They raised the Iranian flag, and they are still there until this moment," he told the Reuters news agency.

He said there had been no military response from Iraqi forces..

"We are awaiting orders from our leader," he said.

The incursion is one of several that have occurred in the last few days, he said.

The well is about 500m from an Iranian border fort and about 1km from an Iraqi fort, US Colonel Peter Newell told AFP.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8420774.stm

[SAMAS]

Ah shit... this will not end well.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Not to be pedantic, or anything, but this illustrates another reason why the Iraq War was a monumentally bad idea. Saddam was an asshole, and with American backing in the 80's he did horrible things. But he at least was a check to Iranian expansion. We handed Iraq to the Iranians on a silver platter. The Surge is over, troops are leaving Iraq, and we have Quds Force running around handing out EFP's. And now this.

FUCK!

[The Guid]

Surely if the Iranians really have gone over the border, there are a couple of armies allied to the Iraqi's that would be more than willing to shove them back over it? Especially since the Iranians deny they are there, and have been pretty clear about how important they find sovereign territory/waters recently.

[Jim Raynor]

It's a mere eleven men on an abandoned oil well right on the border. While cause for concern, I wouldn't overreact over this just yet. So far this is just a bullshit macho display.

[Quetzalcoatl]

I think the whole point is that there is nobody left, at least in the immediate vicinity. Saudia Arabia is weak. Kuwait is tiny. Pakistan is basically a shoddy coalition coming apart at the seams (especially apparent right now). Egypt is apathetic. Yemen and Oman are tearing themselves to pieces. Syria and Lebanon support Iran to varying degrees. So...

So that leaves Turkey, which was notably the location of the first overseas visit taken by President Obama. But they aren't in any positioin to intervene, at least unless things really get shitty.

And yes, it's not a full blown 'invasion', and its not the first time they've probed Iraqi borders since '03. I didn't echo some of the more alarmist language in Stratfor. But it's very worrying that they have the balls to do this sort of thing. They know there's little chance America will take direct action.

[Siege]

Should we really get our collective panties in a twist about less than a dozen guys raising a flag over an oil well 500m across a contested border? This sounds like those seizures of pointless little islands in the Aegean Sea; the moment the other guy sends a small corvette (or in this case a single tank) the issue will be resolved. It's not like the Iranian horde is getting ready to hurl itself at the Iraqi equivalent of the Fulda Gap, people...

[Solauren]

This is the equal of a bunch of drunken Texan's crossing the border and raising a flag in Mexico, before the police toss them in jail.

This is about as newsworthy as that.

[Sea Skimmer]

Aye; and the area is legitimately disputed as the cease fire line in 1988 was never demarcated in any remotely verified manner. Even if it did come to shooting.. well the last time they tried that the front line in that sector moved about 10 miles in total in eight straight years. Iran is mainly just endlessly pissed that what they could not do in those eight years, the US did in about a month total and it looks more like Irans attempts to fuck up the aftermath will fail.

[Tanasinn]

It seems to me like testing the waters - they're doing something small to see if they can get away with it/to feel big about themselves. The idea of sending the guys scampering home with a bit of our own chest-puffing sounds good on its surface, but how far are these soldiers likely to take a game of chicken?

[Axis Kast]

The Iranians seem to have concluded that they have nothing more to lose in the court of Western opinion.

Although the hesitation of the IAEA to say anything that could possibly provide justification for Western military action is sometimes laughable, they don't seem to be able to pare words very well when it comes to the Iranians anymore. Not that Tehran seems worried. While I don't believe for a moment that the United States or Israel will launch a preventive strike (and didn't believe that we would do so while Bush was in office), the Iranians are clearly confident that the West will never be able to obtain Russian or Chinese commitment to sanctions. Given that Iran's ascension to the "Nuclear Club" would be a threat primarily to American and Israeli interests, I imagine that neither Moscow nor Beijing lose much sleep over the problem anyway.

Iran has also ramped up the false accusations of any American it can get its hands on -- which looks to be an attempt to get back at us for the heavy criticism they incurred during the latest round of elections.

[JME2]

This is the equal of a bunch of drunken Texan's crossing the border and raising a flag in Mexico, before the police toss them in jail.

This is about as newsworthy as that.

Yeah, but Texas isn't trying to develop nukes -- so far as we know.

I agree with Tanasinn. It feels like they're testing the waters and I'm curious to see how matters proceed.

[Sea Skimmer]

Umm, funny enough the Pantex plant in Texas is the only place in the US capable of building nuclear weapons.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Umm, funny enough the Pantex plant in Texas is the only place in the US capable of building nuclear weapons.

Well, Sandia and Los Alamos aren't in Texas?

[JME2]

Umm, funny enough the Pantex plant in Texas is the only place in the US capable of building nuclear weapons.

Whoops. Okay, I stand corrected.

[Singular Intellect]

Let me get this straight...eleven soldiers?

Something about the Iranian claim that the well was abandoned strikes me as not entirely implausible.

I admit there's potential for bigger issues here, but seriously, eleven fucking soldiers?

Come on, I've seen bigger bar/club invasions.

[Marcus Aurelius]

Let me get this straight...eleven soldiers?

Yes, it's probably just a single squad, although most likely lead by an officer instead of an NCO considering the controversial nature of the operation. The whole thing is intended to be symbolic anyways; it's not like their going to defend the well if the Iraqi army comes with a superior force. If they wanted to do that they would have sent at least a full company.