Police expect Mumbai-style terror attack on City of London

[[R_H]]

Times Online

Scotland Yard has warned businesses in London to expect a Mumbai-style attack on the capital.

In a briefing in the City of London 12 days ago, a senior detective from SO15, the Metropolitan police counter-terrorism command, said: “Mumbai is coming to London.”

The detective said companies should anticipate a shooting and hostage-taking raid “involving a small number of gunmen with handguns and improvised explosive devices”.

The warning — the bluntest issued by police — has underlined an assessment that a terrorist cell may be preparing an attack on London early next year. It was issued by the Met through its network of “security forums”, which provide business leaders, local government and the emergency services with counter-terrorism advice.

During a “commando-style” raid by 10 gunmen on hotels and cafes in Mumbai in November 2008, 174 people were killed and more than 300 injured over three days.

Officials now report an increase in “intelligence chatter” — communications captured by electronic eavesdropping agencies. One senior security adviser said the police warnings had intensified and become much more specific in the past fortnight.

“Before, there has been speculation. Now we are getting what appears to be a definite plot to carry out a firearms attack on London,” he said.

Earlier this year, police, military and intelligence services held an exercise in Kent to see whether they could defeat a commando raid in London by terrorists.

“The exercise brought out to those taking part that the capability doesn’t exist to deal with that situation should it arise,” said a military source.

Security sources said concerns had been raised by “chatter” on a prominent jihadist website two weeks ago.

One contributor suggested fighters could use automatic weapons to strike places such as nightclubs, sporting venues and Jewish centres.

In an online discussion hosted on December 2, another contributor invited suggestions for carrying out “guerrilla warfare” and proposed “a group of mujaheddin raid police stations and fire at them”.

Another said: “Make sure that all those at the location are of age, that there are no children and so on. Insist on the locations and times where no Muslims or children are to be expected.

“If machine guns are available, and explosive and expertise for [explosives] are not available, this is a good way ... The [Mumbai] operation is the ideal scenario for operations you are talking about.”

A third contributor said targets should be “chosen in a studied manner”.

He added: “In general, targeting economic joints and intelligence centres if possible has priority over police stations.”

The Met is understood to be struggling to draw up effective plans to deal with the challenge of mass shootings followed by a prolonged siege with terrorists prepared to kill their hostages and themselves.

In Mumbai, many victims were killed in the first half hour of the attack. The Met is concerned that it will be much longer before the SAS, which has traditionally dealt with terrorist sieges in London, would arrive from its base at Regent’s Park barracks.

Patrick Mercer, chairman of the Commons counter-terrorism sub-committee, said the threat was “very real”.

[Sarevok]

Other than creating panic and alerting terrorists plotting this what does British police expect to gain be releasing this information publicly ? It is not like Mumbai tragedy could have been averted even if the people in that city knew a rough idea of what going to happen. That responsibility rests with professionals whose job it is to protect people. Ordinary citizens can not do much against a sudden attack by a suicide squad armed with dangerous weapons. Rather with knowledge that now their victims are alert the terrorists would be able to adapt their plans accordingly

[MarshalPurnell]

I saw the CNN/HBO documentary on Mumbai hosted by Fareed Zakaria not too long ago. The cell-phone intercepts from the "control" back in Pakistan guiding the terrorists presented an astoundingly cynical view of the people who organized and dispatched the terrorists. The other thing that struck me (aside from that Pakistan obviously was involved up to its eyeballs) was the staggering level of incompetence showed by the Indian police responding to the emergency. Command and control quickly broke down, with key orders either not passed on or simply ignored, which led to big holes in the security cordons thrown up to catch the terrorists, and a number of police, even senior commanders, being gunned down without support despite calling for backup from very close-by counter-terror forces. I suspect the British or any Western country would probably do significantly better at responding to this kind of thing.

[Psychic_Sandwich]

Other than creating panic and alerting terrorists plotting this what does British police expect to gain be releasing this information publicly ? It is not like Mumbai tragedy could have been averted even if the people in that city knew a rough idea of what going to happen. That responsibility rests with professionals whose job it is to protect people. Ordinary citizens can not do much against a sudden attack by a suicide squad armed with dangerous weapons. Rather with knowledge that now their victims are alert the terrorists would be able to adapt their plans accordingly

Maybe they hope to panic Johnny Terrorist into acting before he's ready? Induce him to think 'Crap, they're on to me! Its now or never!'

[Kamakazie Sith]

If this did happen in London I suspect it wouldn't be anywhere near as successful, but unfortunately innocent people will still die. One of the other major reasons why the Indian police were impotent against the Mumbai terrorists was they were vastly outgunned while waiting for the counter terrorist teams. IIRC one or two first responders to one of the initial scenes had a revolver and five bullets total against two suicidal men using AK-47s.

[Sea Skimmer]

If this did happen in London I suspect it wouldn't be anywhere near as successful, but unfortunately innocent people will still die. One of the other major reasons why the Indian police were impotent against the Mumbai terrorists was they were vastly outgunned while waiting for the counter terrorist teams. IIRC one or two first responders to one of the initial scenes had a revolver and five bullets total against two suicidal men using AK-47s.

The Indians had no counter terrorist SWAT units whatsoever. The ‘commando’ unit they belatedly dispatched was only intended, trained and equipped for VIP protection. The regular Indian police had revolvers, and some had FAL and Lee Enfield rifles, neither of which is exactly ideal for a close range gunfight. The terrorist also had lots of hand grenades, which is a pretty overwhelming advantage against people without grenades indoors.

[Kamakazie Sith]

If this did happen in London I suspect it wouldn't be anywhere near as successful, but unfortunately innocent people will still die. One of the other major reasons why the Indian police were impotent against the Mumbai terrorists was they were vastly outgunned while waiting for the counter terrorist teams. IIRC one or two first responders to one of the initial scenes had a revolver and five bullets total against two suicidal men using AK-47s.

The Indians had no counter terrorist SWAT units whatsoever. The ‘commando’ unit they belatedly dispatched was only intended, trained and equipped for VIP protection. The regular Indian police had revolvers, and some had FAL and Lee Enfield rifles, neither of which is exactly ideal for a close range gunfight. The terrorist also had lots of hand grenades, which is a pretty overwhelming advantage against people without grenades indoors.

Ahhh I don't think the documentary I watched elaborated on the capabilities of the "commando" unit they dispatched. Really, it sounds like most of the blame lies at the feet of the government that didn't want or think it needed to properly train and equip its police force.

[Sea Skimmer]

No doubt on that. The thing is that big VIP protection unit did make sense in the context of the 2001 gunmen attack on the Indian parliament. But that assumed a defensive role for the security service, not the offensive role that was required to deal with scattered attacks on random civilian buildings. It was very stupid to assume only one or the other would be required. India is poor, but they could have afforded both easily enough. The price of just one of those new Su-30MKIs would pay for such a unit.

The government was all the more incompetent by actually having high ranking officials go on TV not once but repeatedly to announce that the unit was being dispatched from New Delhi, then that it had landed, then that it was going into action…. Meanwhile the well prepared terrorists were following all this on TV and radio themselves in the various buildings they ultimately holed up in until exterminated.

One thing though that is clear is the Indians never had any hope of rescuing the hostages taken. The terrorists killed them the moment the commandoes appeared, and had held them only for immediate propaganda value.