A 2010 Food Crisis?

[Big Orange]

Seems like a scarestory, however the bad, unbalanced weather ruining the harvest in many parts of the American Midwest can easily associated with Global Warming:

2010 Food Crisis for Dummies

If you read any economic, financial, or political analysis for 2010 that doesn’t mention the food shortage looming next year, throw it in the trash, as it is worthless. There is overwhelming, undeniable evidence that the world will run out of food next year. When this happens, the resulting triple digit food inflation will lead panicking central banks around the world to dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports, causing the collapse of the dollar, the treasury market, derivative markets, and the global financial system. The US will experience economic disintegration.

The 2010 Food Crisis Means Financial Armageddon

Over the last two years, the world has faced a series of unprecedented financial crises: the collapse of the housing market, the freezing of the credit markets, the failure of Wall Street brokerage firms (Bear Stearns/Lehman Brothers), the failure of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the failure of AIG, Iceland’s economic collapse, the bankruptcy of the major auto manufacturers (General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler), etc… In the face of all these challenges, the demise of the dollar, derivative markets, and the modern international system of credit has been repeatedly forecasted and feared. However, all these doomsday scenarios have so far been proved false, and, despite tremendous chaos and losses, the global financial system has held together.

The 2010 Food Crisis is different. It is THE CRISIS. The one that makes all doomsday scenarios come true. The government bailouts and central bank interventions, which have held the financial world together during the last two years, will be powerless to prevent the 2010 Food Crisis from bringing the global financial system to its knees.

Rest of long article continued

If it comes to pass, it would be bad news for every urbanized country, although I heard of British firms buying up and running vast tracts of farmland in Russia/Belarus/Ukraine for better or worse, and the author of the article (Eric deCarbonnel) has upped sticks and moved there.

[Surlethe]

Would you mind actually posting the "overwhelming, undeniable evidence that the world will run out of food next year", please? Since that's the central claim of the article, it deserves the spotlight in this thread.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

This claim is absurd simply because the world engages in vast overproduction of food for the entire population as things currently stand... Starvation is due to transportation, i.e., the food not ending up in the mouths of the people who need it. Starvation would certainly increase if there were disruptions in the food supply, but that would be due to rich nations reallocating the food to themselves. And don't forget that we could feed a second America if both of them had half the food consumption, and nobody would starve to death. Overeating consumes food which could lift hundreds of millions of people out of starvation in the third world. But again, it would have to be properly distributed.

[Questor]

This claim is absurd simply because the world engages in vast overproduction of food for the entire population as things currently stand... Starvation is due to transportation, i.e., the food not ending up in the mouths of the people who need it. Starvation would certainly increase if there were disruptions in the food supply, but that would be due to rich nations reallocating the food to themselves. And don't forget that we could feed a second America if both of them had half the food consumption, and nobody would starve to death. Overeating consumes food which could lift hundreds of millions of people out of starvation in the third world. But again, it would have to be properly distributed.

Thank you Duchess, you posted while I was trying to find references.

Saying that a food crisis is coming next year is insane. The central plains of NA are overproducing, and I think I read somewhere that europe is overproducing as well. If food were as scarce as a "food crisis" would imply, we wouldn't always be arguing about farm subsidies.

While a "food crisis" may be coming in some areas of the world, a global food crisis will take a lot longer than a year to appear.

EDIT: You can tell its a scarestory by the fact that it takes the crisis of the day and applies it to its scare. A global famine is bad enough, and if it happens, odds are that a financial problem are the least of our worries. One would at least hope that are leaders are smart enough to avoid the use of nuclear weapons, which would just decrease the food supply further. Taking on "financial ruin" is just stupid.

This guy is the equivalent of the survivalist nuts who take any news story as an excuse to run to their compound and beat their women.

EDIT AGAIN: Why would a world food shortage be bad for the economy of one of the world's largest net food producers?

[The Duchess of Zeon]

EDIT AGAIN: Why would a world food shortage be bad for the economy of one of the world's largest net food producers?

Even if we lost the entire midwestern harvest, for that matter, the midwest isn't all of America. Large amounts of food production still goes on in every part of the country.

[Frank Hipper]

This is a discredited source even by Rapture Ready's standards; they laughed this story off their board earlier this week.

[Questor]

Even if we lost the entire midwestern harvest, for that matter, the midwest isn't all of America. Large amounts of food production still goes on in every part of the country.

In the face of anything like a moderate food crisis, the issues with that fish would be ignored and CA's central valley would be up again in a season.

Everyone forgets that the US has so much food that we can starve one of the most fertile areas of water to protect the environment.

[Broomstick]

The only way I can a world-wide genuine food crisis in 2010 from failure of North America to produce food is if the Yellowstone supervolcano pops off. In which case the world is pretty fucked even if there is enough food to feed the survivors.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

The only way I can a world-wide genuine food crisis in 2010 from failure of North America to produce food is if the Yellowstone supervolcano pops off. In which case the world is pretty fucked even if there is enough food to feed the survivors.

Fortunately, Volcanoes provide warning...

[Broomstick]

Sure... it's just that no one knows exactly what sort of warning a supervolcano gives just prior to a big boom. Volcanoes tend to be idiosyncratic. On top of that, Yellowstone is constantly "erupting" on a low level - earth tremors, geysers, outgassing from vents, etc. We have no way to know if it's the sort of object that builds gradually to a crescendo or if it goes ominously quiet then goes kablooie.

But since there is nothing whatsoever I, personally, can do about it I don't lose sleep over it.

[J]

The writer neglects to mention two key facts; US farmers planted more acres of soybeans than ever before this past year, along with the second largest acreage of corn in history (source). In addition with lower gasoline demand due to the recession, many ethanol plants have slowed down production or shutdown entirely leaving more corn available for consumption. Food production in the US has not been a problem at all this year, there was a late start to the season from all the whacky weather but everything worked out fine in the end.

The problems are over in Asia, and to a lesser extent, Australia. And the problem isn't soybeans, it's wheat & rice. Several countries in Asia placed export bans on various grains this year, and India had to make some emergency wheat imports. Australia continues to experience drought so their crops are slowly declining each year, not a problem yet since they're still an exporter but it's something to keep an eye on.


His conclusions & advice at the end? Well, it just gets stupid. China will drop its dollar peg and let its currency rise significantly? Exports, which make up over half its economy would be dead overnight and the country would be insolvent so fast that they wouldn't be able to buy any food on the world market, especially now that they've dumped all their currency reserves.

And of course there's the usual "buy gold" thrown in, I was actually expecting that. Yeah, except if things get as bad as he claims, money & gold will be the least of one's problems.

Then there's the part on investing in Russian agriculture, and countries with underdeveloped agriculture sectors. He points to the fertilizer use graph for some reason. One question, with the credit & monetary collapse which he predicts, how the hell is he going to pay for the fertilizer, pesticides, and fuel needed to develop those fields and make them productive? Oh, that's right, he can't. A credit collapse would wipe out modern agriculture in less developed nations as they would no longer be able to pay for it.

And last, but not least, he claims the Yuan and Ruble are stable currencies, and one should invest in them. Inquiring minds want to know, has the author been huffing paint thinner?

[Terralthra]

The only way I can a world-wide genuine food crisis in 2010 from failure of North America to produce food is if the Yellowstone supervolcano pops off. In which case the world is pretty fucked even if there is enough food to feed the survivors.

Yellowstone is not the only simmering megacaldera. There are at least six more: Long Valley, Valles, Lake Toba, Taupo Volcano, Aira Caldera, and the Siberian Traps. Lake Toba's last eruption killed off 60% of the human population at the time, ~75k years ago. Either of the three US megacalderas erupting could snuff out NA food production.

[Broomstick]

OK, scratch the specific term "Yellowstone" and substitute "any supervolcano mega-eruption anywhere in the world".

[dragon]

Well maybe Americans should stop wasting half the food. Thats enough food to feed a lot of starving people in the world.

The new study, from the University of Arizona (UA) in Tucson, indicates that a shocking forty to fifty per cent of all food ready for harvest never gets eaten.

Timothy Jones, an anthropologist at the UA Bureau of Applied Research in Anthropology, has spent the last 10 years measuring food loss, including the last eight under a grant from the US department of agriculture (USDA). Jones started examining practices in farms and orchards, before going onto food production, retail, consumption and waste disposal.

What he found was that not only is edible food discarded that could feed people who need it, but the rate of loss, even partially corrected, could save US consumers and manufacturers tens of billions of dollars each year. Jones says these losses also can be framed in terms of environmental degradation and national security.

Jones' research evolved from and builds on earlier work done at the University of Arizona. Archaeologists there began measuring garbage in the 1970s to see what was being thrown away and discovered that people were not fully aware of what they were using and discarding.

Those earlier studies evolved into more sophisticated research using contemporary archaeology and ethnography to understand not only the path food travels from farms and orchards to landfills, but also the culture and psychology behind the process.

The fact that the US is a wasteful nation is not necessarily news, of course. The country has long has been chastised for its wilful consumption of the world's resources, and many aspects of the country's culture encapsulate what environmentalists disparagingly refer to as today's "throw-away society."

Similarly, researchers have known for years about the volumes of food Americans toss into the trash. But only recently, though, has that been quantified as a percentage of what is produced, and the UA statistics are the first tangible proof that Us food production is frighteningly wasteful.

A certain amount of waste in the food stream cannot be helped of course. Little can be done, for instance, about weather and crop deterioration. The apple industry, for instance, loses on average about 12 per cent of its crop on the way to market.

Apples in the US are harvested over a two-month period and then stored and sold year-round. People in the apple business use aggressive methods to maintain their crop, with fresh apples hitting the supermarkets on a regular basis and marginal ones sent to be made into applesauce and other products.

The goal of apple growers is to provide a nutritious product, all year long, at fairly constant prices. Jones says they've adopted a conservative business plan that forgoes the boom-and-bust cycles that other fruit and vegetable growers aim for and opts instead for a steady income stream.

But Jones argues that fresh fruit and vegetable growers, in contrast, often behave like riverboat gamblers. They will take a risk on the commodity markets if they think it will help them make a financial killing. A bad bet often means an entire crop is left in the field to be ploughed under.

Jones' research also shows that by measuring how much food is actually being brought into households, a clearer picture of that end of the food stream is beginning to emerge.

On average, households waste 14 per cent of their food purchases. Fifteen per cent of that includes products still within their expiration date but never opened. Jones estimates an average family of four currently tosses out $590 per year, just in meat, fruits, vegetables and grain products.

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[CaptainChewbacca]

For the record, the Long Valley Caldera has been getting quieter and quieter over the past 2 decades. We're not quite sure why, though.

[Questor]

For the record, the Long Valley Caldera has been getting quieter and quieter over the past 2 decades. We're not quite sure why, though.

I thought volcanoes got more active before eruptions...

[Tanasinn]

And of course there's the usual "buy gold" thrown in, I was actually expecting that.

This one gets me. If there's going to be a country-collapsing economic crisis and a rampant famine, I'm going to stock up on food, clean water, and bullets, not worthless heavy metals.

[Broomstick]

You can make bullets out of gold, just as you can out of lead. Lead is still cheaper and more plentiful, though.

[GuppyShark]

I still don't understand why gold has ever been considered valuable, its practical applications outside jewellery require a technology base that has only recently been developed.

[Broomstick]

Pretty, portable, nearly indestructible, dividable, easily reshaped...

As a stand in for useful items it does have some good features.

[JBG]

EDIT AGAIN: Why would a world food shortage be bad for the economy of one of the world's largest net food producers?

Even if we lost the entire midwestern harvest, for that matter, the midwest isn't all of America. Large amounts of food production still goes on in every part of the country.

Even down under we produce in a bad year, in a land of "droughts and flooding rains" far more food and fibre than we can possibly consume at home. The problem is distribution, simpliciter.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

EDIT AGAIN: Why would a world food shortage be bad for the economy of one of the world's largest net food producers?

Even if we lost the entire midwestern harvest, for that matter, the midwest isn't all of America. Large amounts of food production still goes on in every part of the country.

Even down under we produce in a bad year, in a land of "droughts and flooding rains" far more food and fibre than we can possibly consume at home. The problem is distribution, simpliciter.

Just so, but that will never be an issue in a modern industrialized country with an established road/rail/(and up here) canal network.

[Mayabird]

Even down under we produce in a bad year, in a land of "droughts and flooding rains" far more food and fibre than we can possibly consume at home. The problem is distribution, simpliciter.

Just so, but that will never be an issue in a modern industrialized country with an established road/rail/(and up here) canal network.

I don't think JBG is talking in the sense of physically moving the food about so much as making sure it reaches absolutely everybody, regardless of how poor they are. It means nothing if you can get the food there but they can't afford to buy it. That's what they usually mean when they talk about distributing the food.

[J]

The problem is distribution, simpliciter.

Just so, but that will never be an issue in a modern industrialized country with an established road/rail/(and up here) canal network.

Actually distribution is a potential problem since everything, and I mean everything moves on credit nowadays. In the event of a credit collapse where credit locks up and becomes mostly unavailabe we have the following situation which I've outlined in the past.

Gas stations will be unable to refill their storage tanks since gasoline & diesel are purchased using short term commercial credit which is paid off as the fuel is sold. This brings trucking to a halt unless there's a pipeline terminal nearby which is willing and able to refuel the trucks. At best there will be limited trucking for essential goods only, if your area isn't as fortunate the trucks will not move until someone can truck in diesel fuel from a distribution terminal. In the meantime grocery store shelves will not be restocked and the shelves go empty. Better hope that the central food terminal in your area is served by a rail link or you're not getting any food at all until someone gets around to trucking in fuel so the food trucks can move.

The problem is it takes time to setup an emergency fuel & food distribution system, and with what's involved the authorities will likely waste valuable time deciding whether or not it's worth it to go ahead and do it. There's only so many days of food & fuel on location and in inventory, odds are good they'll be completely depleted by the time emergency measures take an effect. Some areas will be fine, others will be forgotten and end up in deep trouble.

Oh, and let's not forget that bulk grains are usually shipped using letters of credit, without credit the grain isn't moving. The government will have to pledge guarantees on all food shipments with whatever credit it has remaining after bailing out the financials. Then the grain can be moved, if the fuel & trucks are around to move the grain and the finished food products.

[Surlethe]

Is the government bound to issue and back letters of credit? If the situation is bad enough, the military could (and would) forcibly move the grain and ration food; the gov't will only go through the financial motions if the situation isn't grave enough to warrant automatic nationalization.