stormthebeaches wrote:The idea of China planting ABM's in Mexico is absurd. Mexico is a strong ally of the United States and they would never allow it. The US wouldn't have to lift a finger.
Also, the US has scrapped its Polish ABM plans so I fail to see why that is an issue.
As a practical matter, yes. This is about theory, not practice.
If the Chinese thought it was a good idea to put ABMs in Mexico (say, if they had lots of allies in South America much as the US has lots of allies in Europe), and
if Mexico was willing to let them, would they have a right to do so? If not, would the US have a right to put ABMs in Poland, and if not, why not?
stormthebeaches wrote:The Not-American explanation would be that an ABM in the proximity of North America would serve as a deterrent and a counterbalance to the United States of America, to dissuade it from partaking in further acts of "American foreign interests abroad" that have proven to be detrimental to the people actually living in those places.
No it wouldn't. An ABM in proximity of North America would lead to an arms race between America and whoever placed the ABM and a rapid increase in hostilities between the two nations (or more if the ABM was a coalition effort). Either that or a tragic "accident" would occur to the ABM system.
As long as you apply this rule consistently, to American ABM sites in Poland as well as Russian/Chinese/Whoeverian ABM sites in the Caribbean, fine. If not, not so fine. There's a very significant consistency issue at stake here.
Are you stupid? An ABM in proximity of North America would be used as a rallying point for the American right wing. It would have the exact opposite effects that you are hoping for.
...and an ABM in proximity of Russia could not be used as a rallying point for Russian nationalist-types?
(if anyone has a better name for the Putin side of the Russian political spectrum, please share it)
________
Ryan Thunder wrote:Simon_Jester wrote:Ryan Thunder wrote:The United States is not going to use their missiles unless somebody else gives them an incredibly good reason to. So, China has nothing to fear from American missiles--unless China's planning on doing something that would give them a good reason to use them...
Which, officially, is equally true in reverse, or if we slot "Russia" into the sentence.
Remind me; which country's government imploded in the last 30 years? They
still have obviously rigged elections on a regular basis.
And yet it is
still officially true; that's the point. Regardless of the actual probability that a country will launch nuclear missiles, every government that has them maintains that
officially the probability is zero unless they are provoked. Other countries have as much right and reason to take the US nuclear threat seriously as the US does to take their seriously, especially since we were the first to explicitly roll out Mutually Assured Destruction as a doctrine.
[joking]
And since we just had eight years of being ruled by a president who was wildly unpopular throughout much of the world, was tied to religious figures who believed that divinely mandated apocalyptic "end times" might come at any moment, invaded two medium-sized countries and was making angry noises at a third, and who some (with or without reason) suspect of having benefited from low-level election fraud in his own right.
[/joking]
So while
we can protest our own shiny-clean intentions, that doesn't mean other nations should be obligated to take us at our word any more than we take them at theirs. Trust, but verify, and have a backup plan.
Only if the Russians decided to attack NATO for some bizarre reason. Putting an NATO ABM site in Poland and putting a PLA ABM site in Mexico are not the same. Sure the action might be similar but the actors and their probable motivations aren't the same by any stretch of the imagination.
The actors and their probable motivations are not the same. However, they may
look more similar to outside parties than they do to you. You may be convinced that your nation's intentions are honorable and defensive in a situation where most of the rest of the world thinks that they are not.
Unless you see the Americans and the Chinese government on the same level, of course, in which case I'm not even going to bother...
I don't, but one of the cornerstones of the idea of national sovereignty is that your right to act doesn't depend on whether I approve of the way you run your government. Even if two countries are not the same, that does not mean one of them has the right to decide to do X while another nation does not. Acts that would be wrong for the Bad Guy' are equally wrong for the Good Guy. They have to be, because the only way you can tell the difference between the two is by looking at how often they do it.
Ryan Thunder wrote:Well of course they're going to want to do it if they can. That doesn't make it right, however, and of course the Americans are going to want to destroy it or get rid of it however they can before it becomes operational. They'll have every right to as far as I'm concerned.
The PLA, not so much.
How
dare they not want to be defenseless before our righteous forces!? Right.
Seriously, if Designated Good Guys have a right to security, so do Designated Bad Guys. Especially when the Bad Guys can't rely on the Good Guys' honorable intentions much more than the Good Guys can rely on the Bad. The Chinese government, for all their questionable acts, are not cartoon villains and will not plot to destroy the world purely for the sake of being evil. The only things they'd be at all likely to launch nukes over are the same sort of things
we'd launch nukes over... except that their view of those things may differ from ours. For instance, strategically they have every reason to view Taiwan much as we viewed Cuba during the Cold War, and I would not at all be surprised if they started rattling missiles at us if we decided to base missiles of our own in Taiwan. I wouldn't blame them; they shouldn't be expected to sit there and tolerate than any more than we should have been.