Breaking News: Haiti hit by a 7.0 quake

[Broomstick]

How fast can port facilities be constructed? Are there prefabs for this sort of thing? Assuming it's simply faster to avoid the wreckage and build anew, that is.

Even if you could wave a magic wand and fix the port facilities instantly, the roads from the port into the city are described as being buckled into waves about 5 feet high. Or about 1.6 meters. And then there's all the rubble that has fallen into the streets on top of that.

It's not enough to fix the port when there are no usable roads.

Really, at this point they should just get able-bodied people to hand-carry the supplies into the city areas, at this point it would be faster than trying to repair things enough for mechanized transport. People need water NOW, not a week from now, not even a day from now.

If anyone has a solution for this problem (other than human porters) it will be the military. They might have something, I don't know. But really, if there is no alternative, they need to have the Haitians do the transporting. There is a ready pool of human labor available, after all, and the Haitians have already demonstrated a willingness to help their neighbors.

Of course, some materials will be diverted if that system is used. Let's get real, stuff is going to get diverted no matter what, but if the majority of stuff gets to the people in need that will have to do. We can't afford to wait for a perfect system here, not when delays will cost lives.

[Ryan Thunder]

If anyone has a solution for this problem (other than human porters) it will be the military.

They could drop supplies out of cargo planes. Haven't they done that before?

Alternatively, the US could bring a few LHAs into the area and start using them to deliver aid via helicopter.

[Broomstick]

If anyone has a solution for this problem (other than human porters) it will be the military.

They could drop supplies out of cargo planes. Haven't they done that before?

Possibly. However, prior drops were done into open fields. Right now, what few open spaces exist in Port-au-Prince are full of people. If you drop stuff out of an aircraft you risk hitting people and injuring or killing them.

There is also the problem of fuel. There isn't any left in Port-au-Prince. You'd be adding the logistical problem of fueling all those aircraft doing air drops.

Just glad I'm not the one having to figure the problem out. While I like to play the hero as much as anyone this time in my heart of hearts I'm not really disappointed to be staying home and watching it on TV. I would not want to be in Haiti right now.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Didn't America have pre-fab docking facilities that could be rapidly deployed during WWII?

[Knife]

They're going to have to bring in the gator-navy and airlift with helo's the gear in. They're going to have to establish fortified positions and then land in the gear and personel before allowing people to come inside the relief camp or they'll get over run.

[Sea Skimmer]

Didn't America have pre-fab docking facilities that could be rapidly deployed during WWII?

In WW2 we built whole floating ports specifically for several operations including one planned for invading Japan, but our capacity for massive logistical engineer efforts is much lesser today. That was a level of capability no one could maintain in a peacetime military. We still have floating causeway gear though, and large crane ships which could unload conventional freighters into landing craft or said floating causeways. I dunno that the US will be going that far in this but we may have too if US troops are going to stay on the ground a long time. But for now, emergency aid is only going to reliably reach inland by helicopter, and that’s a huge limitation.

[Broomstick]

Reports of looting and fighting over food/water have been coming out. Let's be real here - "looting" in this case isn't a criminal activity in usual sense, these are people who are going to die if they don't get water, who haven't eaten in days, and who have no idea if help is ever coming, much less in time to save them. They're taking what they need to survive.

There is now the problem that anyone who drives a truck with food or water into the city risks being overrun. If you drop supplies into the city there will be fighting over them.

That doesn't mean no aid is getting through, some people are being helped. It's just that literal millions need help in a wrecked city. It's going to take time to get to all of them, and time is in exceedingly short supply for many.

[Broomstick]

As a small positive - Cuba is now allowing US overflights of their airspace for the duration of the emergency. This reduces the flight time for evacuating people to Florida by 90 minutes.

[Lonestar]

I suspect that the pressures for clean water won't begin to be relieved until those 'Phibs show up, drop anchor, and roll out about 2 miles worth of hose to transport water ashore. Dollars to donuts that even then most of that water will go to the relief personnel, who still haven't arrived in truly large numbers.

[irishmick79]

The Immigration service is already anticipating that this will be a huge strain on resources. Reworking custody arrangements for now-stalled deportations, benefit applications, anticipated fraud, this is going to be occupying the immgiration services for a long, long time.

[Simon_Jester]

There is now the problem that anyone who drives a truck with food or water into the city risks being overrun. If you drop supplies into the city there will be fighting over them.

I'd think it would be better for them to at least have some supplies to fight over in the first place, but that may be naive.

[CaptainChewbacca]

I wonder how many new haitian refugees are going to be coming to the US. Perhaps 250-500,000 in the next 6 months?

I'd think it would be better for them to at least have some supplies to fight over in the first place, but that may be naive.

The problem they're seeing now is that when a relief vehicle rolls up and starts handing out food and water to the people its the strong men who push their way to the front of the crowd, knocking the women and children. And the relief isn't enough and when it runs out people start panicking. Dropping supplies in at this point would add desperate, fleeting hope to an already chaotic situation.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Quick update-

Haiti has had two more earthquakes over 4.5 in the last 12 hours. These people cannot catch a break!

[Broomstick]

I wonder how many new haitian refugees are going to be coming to the US. Perhaps 250-500,000 in the next 6 months?

Normally I'd welcome anyone with open arms, but our own economy is weak and our social safety nets fraying. Sure, come on in, but I fear that such refugees will not get the help they need so badly.

I'd think it would be better for them to at least have some supplies to fight over in the first place, but that may be naive.

The problem they're seeing now is that when a relief vehicle rolls up and starts handing out food and water to the people its the strong men who push their way to the front of the crowd, knocking the women and children. And the relief isn't enough and when it runs out people start panicking. Dropping supplies in at this point would add desperate, fleeting hope to an already chaotic situation.

It's a little more complicated that just "the strong men muscle aside the weak women and children". In many such instances the men aren't just hogging goods for themselves, they really are getting them for their families. It's a pattern seen again and again all over the world - the healthy men of an extended family go after such supplies, leaving the most vulnerable to wait for their return. The problem, of course, is that there no way to distinguish such a family man from an out-and-out thug who is being a greedy motherfucker - and, of course, greedy motherfuckers do exist.

Even so - a riot springing up over food and water could well kill people, and Haiti already has an oversupply of dead right now. That's one reason such supply trucks need to be sent with armed military, to keep order and prevent further tragedy.

[Broomstick]

Quick update-
Haiti has had two more earthquakes over 4.5 in the last 12 hours. These people cannot catch a break!

Quakes, or aftershocks?

[irishmick79]

I wonder how many new haitian refugees are going to be coming to the US. Perhaps 250-500,000 in the next 6 months?

I'd think it would be better for them to at least have some supplies to fight over in the first place, but that may be naive.

The problem they're seeing now is that when a relief vehicle rolls up and starts handing out food and water to the people its the strong men who push their way to the front of the crowd, knocking the women and children. And the relief isn't enough and when it runs out people start panicking. Dropping supplies in at this point would add desperate, fleeting hope to an already chaotic situation.

At least that many. Couple that number with a large number of Haitians already present in the US illegally who might become eligible for some kind of relief in light of the disaster. They're saying the number would be around 30,000, but I suspect a lot more than that will try to apply.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Quick update-
Haiti has had two more earthquakes over 4.5 in the last 12 hours. These people cannot catch a break!

Quakes, or aftershocks?

Aftershock, but really the only difference between an earthquake and an aftershock is timing. Anything over a category 4.5 will make the news here in the US and will cause minor structural damage in localized areas.

[Simon_Jester]

Though at this point I'd imagine that almost everything in the country that can be flattened by an earthquake of magnitude less than 6 has, or is in such poor condition that it might collapse at any time and has to be evacuated anyway. The aftershocks are bad news, but are they actually doing all that much damage over and above what already happened?

[CaptainChewbacca]

Though at this point I'd imagine that almost everything in the country that can be flattened by an earthquake of magnitude less than 6 has, or is in such poor condition that it might collapse at any time and has to be evacuated anyway. The aftershocks are bad news, but are they actually doing all that much damage over and above what already happened?

At this point aftershocks present several dangers: They are strong enough to hamper relief efforts by further collapsing partially damaged buildings, which can kill or injure rescue workers (of which haiti has very few at this time). They can also destroy or damage temporary relief facilities which are usually seat-of-pants level of craftsmanship.

Most importantly, aftershocks can have an IMMENSE psychological impact on the people. For most of the population of Port Au Prince the world ENDED this week. Their lives have come apart and won't be getting put back together anytime soon. With each aftershock comes a new wave of panic and terror and hopelessness hammering down on the survivors.

[Broomstick]

Quick update-
Haiti has had two more earthquakes over 4.5 in the last 12 hours. These people cannot catch a break!

Quakes, or aftershocks?

Aftershock, but really the only difference between an earthquake and an aftershock is timing. Anything over a category 4.5 will make the news here in the US and will cause minor structural damage in localized areas.

My impression (which may be wrong, as I am not an expert) is that aftershocks, while just as much an earth-shaking as a quake, gradually diminish over time whereas a new earthquake would herald yet a new series of extended shakes.

A couple years ago the US Midwest had a 5.2 - that was quite alarming even without the trauma of having one's city falling down a couple days before and all that mass death and horror that entails. Probably only rated a 4 something up by where I live, but most people felt it and they were on edge for a few days. With people already traumatized... yes, how horrible. I expect quite a few people still can't bring themselves to go inside buildings at this point. Not to mention such shocks pose risks to rescue personnel and people trapped in rubble that might still be shifting and settling.

[Knife]

The problem they're seeing now is that when a relief vehicle rolls up and starts handing out food and water to the people its the strong men who push their way to the front of the crowd, knocking the women and children. And the relief isn't enough and when it runs out people start panicking. Dropping supplies in at this point would add desperate, fleeting hope to an already chaotic situation.

Which is why I mentioned that they probably need to set up fortified camps first and then let the refuge's in. If they can't set them up in the city via helo's, then they need to set them up just inside Haiti from the Dominican Repub.

[CaptainChewbacca]

My impression (which may be wrong, as I am not an expert) is that aftershocks, while just as much an earth-shaking as a quake, gradually diminish over time whereas a new earthquake would herald yet a new series of extended shakes.

Technically yes, aftershocks are smaller quakes that follow the main. If you get a MORE powerful event after the initial, the initial quake gets retroactively classified as a FOREshock. While they generally diminish over time, there's no guarantee that each consecutive quake will be smaller, and especially on as rigid a faultline as this you could still be seeing aftershocks through the end of february.

At this point with the number of mid-magnitude quakes we're getting it is almost becomming an earthquake SWARM. Absent the primary event, it would be a textbook case.

[Solauren]

I thought Earthquake Swarms were usually precursiors to a Volcanic eruption....

Please tell me there are no Volcano's near Haiti...

[CaptainChewbacca]

I thought Earthquake Swarms were usually precursiors to a Volcanic eruption....

Please tell me there are no Volcano's near Haiti...

No, swarms are not necessarily predecessors of an eruption. And there are no volcanoes in Haiti.

[Broomstick]

There certainly are volcanoes in the Caribbean - please tell me that there is NOT a chance of one appearing on/under/near Haiti....?

And possible aftershocks through February? That is... disturbing. And would certainly complicate rescue and rebuilding.