Iran now a nuclear state.

N&P: Discuss governments, nations, politics and recent related news here.

Moderators: Alyrium Denryle, Edi, K. A. Pital

User avatar
Oscar Wilde
Padawan Learner
Posts: 340
Joined: 2008-10-29 07:36pm

Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by Oscar Wilde »

Iran is now a 'nuclear state', President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced this morning.

As Gordon Brown warned that the world's patience is wearing thin, Ahmadinejad told scores of cheering Iranians that the Islamic Republic is capable of producing weapons-grade uranium.

He spoke as tens of thousands of people took to the streets in Tehran to mark the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution.

Despite fears of violence, opposition supporters found themselves largely overwhelmed by the clerical regime and pro-government demonstrators.

The massive security clampdown appeared to succeed in preventing protesters from converging into a cohesive demonstrations.

Large numbers of riot police, members of the Revolutionary Guard and Basij militiamen, some on motorcycles, deployed in back streets near key squares and major avenues in the capital to move against protesters.

He said it had produced its first batch of 20 per cent enriched uranium - and had the capability to enrich to far higher levels at its Natanz plant.

Enriching uranium produces fuel for a nuclear power plants but can also be used to create material for atomic weapons.

The international community has warned Iran against further enrichment activities, threatening new UN sanctions.

Today Gordon Brown again reiterated the threat of sanctions.

'I believe the mood around the world is now increasingly one where, patience not being inexhaustible, people are turning to look at the specific sanctions we can plan on Iran,' Mr Brown said.

'This is a critical time for Iran's relationship with the rest of the world.'

MrBrown said the international community did not want to impose sanctions but would do so if Iran did not cooperate more fully over its nuclear plans

The Iranian leader insisted the material was not intended to produce an atomic bomb, however.

'We have the capability to enrich uranium more than 20 percent or 80 percent (the level needed to create an atomic bomb),' he said in a speech broadcast live on state television.

'But we don't enrich (to this level) because we don't need it...

'When we say we do not manufacture the bomb, we mean it, and we do not believe in manufacturing a bomb,' he told the crowd. 'If we wanted to manufacture a bomb we would announce it.'

Thousands of supporters had been brought in on buses to hear Ahmadinejad speak as security forces threatened to crush any opposition protests.

Witnesses say security forces fired paint balls to disperse anti-government protesters in one of the first clashes of the day's ceremonies.

The unrest began after protesters began to chant opposition slogans in Sadeqieh Square, which is about a half-mile (one kilometer) from a huge pro-government gathering where President Ahmadinejad delivered his speech.

Witnesses say there were no apparent injuries among the several hundred protesters.
Iranian security forces stand guard as crowds of Iranians gather to listen to President Ahmadinejad's address

Internet speeds around the capital dropped dramatically this morning as the government tried to foil demonstrations against the regime.

State television showed live footage of crowds carrying Iranian flags and pictures of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei making their way to Azadi (freedom) Square in central Tehran, where the main gathering is being held.

Opposition members went on rooftops late Wednesday and shouted Allah-u-Akbar ('God is greatest') in protest - echoing similar cries after the disputed June election as well as anti-shah protests more than three decades ago.


* Obama accuses Tehran of building a bomb as Iran threatens to stun West with ‘punch’
* Pakistan is my biggest worry - not Iran or Afghanistan, warns U.S. vice president Joe Biden

'There is a heavy presence of security forces everywhere. Police trucks are at every major intersection,' said a witness in central Tehran. Police helicopters were flying over the city.

An opposition website, Iran Green Voice, reported large numbers of opposition supporters gathering in several cities, including Tehran and the northern city of Tabriz.

'In some parts of Tehran, opposition supporters are chanting 'Death to the Dictator'' the website said.

Security forces are equipped with water cannon to disperse opposition protests, the opposition website Jaras reported.
Enlarge President Ahmadinejad greets well wishers from his car, as he arrives at the rally

President Ahmadinejad, centre, greets well wishers from his car, as he arrives at the rally

Other opposition websites spoke of groups of protesters in the hundreds, compared to much larger crowds in past demonstrations

One protester told The Associated Press she had tried to join the demonstrations but soon left in disappointment.

'There were 300 of us, maximum 500. Against 10,000 people,' she told an AP reporter outside Iran. She said there were few clashes.

'It means they won and we lost. They defeated us. They were able to gather so many people,' she said. 'But this doesn't mean we have been defeated for good. It's a defeat for now, today. We need time to regroup.'

Another protester insisted the opposition had come out in significant numbers, but 'the problem was that we were not able to gather in one place because they (security forces) were very violent.'
Pro-government Iranian female demonstrators stand behind posters showing late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini, right in each poster, and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at left in posters, during today's rally


'Maybe people got scared,' he said. 'The idea wasn't to lose or win today ... But what is certain, today was not a good day.'

The opposition leaders have promised to join street rallies, including the Green movement founder and former presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam said on Wednesday the Revolutionary Guards and Basij Islamic militia were ready for any incident.

'In case of any riots, public disturbance and disorder ... police will detain and keep rioters in prison until April 9,' an unnamed official told the semi-official Fars news agency on Thursday.

The Islamic state is facing its worst domestic crisis in three decades as opposition supporters have rallied round reformists who lost to Ahmadinejad in the election.
Today President Ahmadinejad announced that the Islamic Republic had produced its first batch of 20 per cent enriched uranium. He is pictured here at the Natanz nuclear plant

In recent months, the opposition has built its street protest strategy around days of important political or religious significance in attempts to embarrass authorities.

The tone of the rallies, however, has shifted from outrage over alleged fraud in President Ahmadinejad's re-election to wider calls against the entire Islamic system, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Neither side has shown much appetite for compromise in the eight months since the disputed June presidential vote, which the opposition says was rigged to secure Ahmadinejad's re-election.

Iran faces growing Western calls for targeted sanctions against it after Ahmadinejad ordered production of higher-grade uranium, stirring fears that Tehran aims to make nuclear bombs, not just fuel for civilian use as it says is the case.

The authorities, who say the poll was fair, have struggled to suppress the protests, and opened trials in recent weeks of people charged in connection with bloody riots on December 27.

Opposition leaders have said the trials were an attempt to deter people from taking part in protests today.

Iranian authorities again tried to squeeze off text messaging and Web links in attempts to cripple protest organisers. The opposition has used internet and text messaging as its main communication channels.

Internet service was sharply slowed, mobile phone service widely cut and there were repeated disruptions in popular instant messaging services such as Google chat.

But several Iranians reached by The Associated Press said some messenger services, including Yahoo!, and mobile phone texting were still sporadically accessible. Many Internet users said they could not log into their Gmail account, Google's e-mail service, since last week.

'We have heard from users in Iran that they are having trouble accessing Gmail,' said Google in a statement. 'We can confirm a sharp drop in traffic and we have looked at our own networks and found that they are working properly.'

An Iranian opposition website claimed today that security forces attacked opposition leader Mehdi Karoubi when he attended a rally.

'Karoubi was attacked by security forces in central Tehran... they shattered his car's windows ... Karoubi was not seriously injured,' Jaras website reported. The same website said security forces also attacked former president Mohammad Khatami.

The Islamic Republic has survived many challenges, not least a 1980-88 war started by Iraq's Saddam Hussein, whose forces were propped up by Gulf Arab oil money and Western weaponry.

But the national unity forged in that trauma has long given way to rifts within clerical and political elites that widened after the June election. Street protests have flared periodically ever since, sometimes around official rallies.

Attending February 11 events is a tradition for many in the country of 70 million, over half of whom have only ever known the Islamic Republic established by the revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

'If we all stay at home, our youngsters will be left alone on Bahman 22 (February 11). We should support them,' said Laleh, a 67-year-old housewife. 'I have nothing to lose.'

Iranian Nobel Peace laureate Shirin Ebadi said on Wednesday her country faced a catastrophe that would wreck peace in the whole Middle East if what she called government repression of the people were not halted.

Opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Karoubi say the reform movement is alive despite pressure from the hardline rulers to disband. Karoubi predicted last month that Ahmadinejad would not be able to complete his four-year term.

'Even if he stays in power until the end of his term, he will be the weakest president since the revolution,' an Iranian analyst who did not want to be named said this week.
Fromhere.

I really just don't know what to say.
It's funny how every Cracked reader seems to change occupation in between reading each article, so that they always end up being irrefutable field experts in whatever topic is at hand.-Dirty_Bastard, cracked.com commentator
User avatar
hongi
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1952
Joined: 2006-10-15 02:14am
Location: Sydney

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by hongi »

The Iranian leader insisted the material was not intended to produce an atomic bomb, however.

'We have the capability to enrich uranium more than 20 percent or 80 percent (the level needed to create an atomic bomb),' he said in a speech broadcast live on state television.

'But we don't enrich (to this level) because we don't need it...

'When we say we do not manufacture the bomb, we mean it, and we do not believe in manufacturing a bomb,' he told the crowd. 'If we wanted to manufacture a bomb we would announce it.'
So...he expects people to actually believe this? *snort*
Psychic_Sandwich
Padawan Learner
Posts: 416
Joined: 2007-03-12 12:19pm

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by Psychic_Sandwich »

Um, SCIENCE?

I can't see how anybody thought this could be a good idea, since this blows any pretense of a purely civilian programme out of the water. Why make this sort of declaration if you don't think people will take you seriously?
User avatar
Oscar Wilde
Padawan Learner
Posts: 340
Joined: 2008-10-29 07:36pm

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by Oscar Wilde »

hongi wrote:
The Iranian leader insisted the material was not intended to produce an atomic bomb, however.

'We have the capability to enrich uranium more than 20 percent or 80 percent (the level needed to create an atomic bomb),' he said in a speech broadcast live on state television.

'But we don't enrich (to this level) because we don't need it...

'When we say we do not manufacture the bomb, we mean it, and we do not believe in manufacturing a bomb,' he told the crowd. 'If we wanted to manufacture a bomb we would announce it.'
So...he expects people to actually believe this? *snort*
Claim any bomb was made with stolen material or something?

Hell, there's always the (however unlikely) scenario that he's sincere.
It's funny how every Cracked reader seems to change occupation in between reading each article, so that they always end up being irrefutable field experts in whatever topic is at hand.-Dirty_Bastard, cracked.com commentator
User avatar
hongi
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1952
Joined: 2006-10-15 02:14am
Location: Sydney

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by hongi »

Oscar Wilde wrote:
Claim any bomb was made with stolen material or something?
We'd still hold Iran responsible in that case.
Oscar Wilde wrote: Hell, there's always the (however unlikely) scenario that he's sincere.
Even if that's true, just the capability to create nuclear weapons will raise tensions dramatically in the Middle East. I mean this is seriously tinderbox material. I don't see a nuclear arms race among Iran's neighbours, but I do see Israel watching Iran very, very closely in the future.
User avatar
GrandMasterTerwynn
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 6787
Joined: 2002-07-29 06:14pm
Location: Somewhere on Earth.

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by GrandMasterTerwynn »

Don't use such a misleading (and blatantly wrong) thread title next time, mmkay? Iran isn't a nuclear state until someone detects a nuclear test going off on their soil. This article isn't about Iran producing the Bomb. It's more about Ahmedinejad spouting off his usual dark comedy, the protests, and whatever else that mark the Islamic Republic's 31st anniversary.

But again, I must re-iterate, Iran is not yet a nuclear state. Just because they can produce enriched uranium does not mean they can build nuclear weapons.
User avatar
Fire Fly
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1608
Joined: 2004-01-06 12:03am
Location: Grand old Badger State

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by Fire Fly »

Psychic_Sandwich wrote:Um, SCIENCE?

I can't see how anybody thought this could be a good idea, since this blows any pretense of a purely civilian programme out of the water. Why make this sort of declaration if you don't think people will take you seriously?
Perhaps to goad the US or Israel into bombing Iran and then the Iranian hardliners can unify the country and quell internal affairs. Also it could just be posturing.
[R_H]
Sith Devotee
Posts: 2894
Joined: 2007-08-24 08:51am
Location: Europe

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by [R_H] »

Ahmadinejad warns Israel against any military move
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Israel should be resisted and finished off if it launched military action in the region, state broadcaster IRIB reported on Thursday.Ahmadeinjad's comments were made when the president spoke over the telephone with his Syrian counterpart late on Wednesday.

Last week, Syria -- a key regional ally of Iran -- accused Israel of pushing the Middle East toward a new war.

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, in an interview broadcast on Wednesday, said Israeli aircraft were making daily incursions into Lebanese air space, creating a very dangerous situation.

"We have reliable information ... that the Zionist regime is after finding a way to compensate for its ridiculous defeats from the people of Gaza and Lebanon's Hezbollah," Ahmadinejad told Syria's Bashar al-Assad, referring to conflicts in 2006 and 2009.

"If the Zionist regime should repeat its mistakes and initiate a military operation, then it must be resisted with full force to put an end to it once and for all."

Ahmadinejad, who has often predicted the imminent demise of the Jewish state, said Iran would remain on the side of regional nations including Syria, Lebanon and Palestine.

The Islamic Republic does not recognize Israel, which it refers to as the Zionist regime. Israel sees Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat and has not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the row.

Iran, the world's fifth-largest crude exporter, says it would retaliate for any attack on its nuclear facilities which it says are part of a peaceful energy program but which the West suspects are aimed at making bombs.

In a statement late last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was not planning any imminent attack on Lebanon, from where Hezbollah launched some 4,000 rockets at it during the 34-day war in 2006.

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, responding to Syria's accusation last week, has said Damascus would be defeated and Assad would lose power in any future conflict. Netanyahu later reassured Syria that Israel sought peace.
User avatar
MKSheppard
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Posts: 29842
Joined: 2002-07-06 06:34pm

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by MKSheppard »

GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:Iran isn't a nuclear state until someone detects a nuclear test going off on their soil.
By that logic, Israel isn't one.
Just because they can produce enriched uranium does not mean they can build nuclear weapons.
Getting fissile is one of the largest logisticial hurdles in producing a nuclear weapon -- everything else is just basic engineering -- and Iran is certainly more advanced than the US of 1945-50 was; due to the much more advanced global market now -- they can buy high end desktops, milling machines, etc off the open market pretty much, unlike North Korea.
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
User avatar
eion
Jedi Master
Posts: 1303
Joined: 2009-12-03 05:07pm
Location: NoVA

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by eion »

MKSheppard wrote:
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:Iran isn't a nuclear state until someone detects a nuclear test going off on their soil.
By that logic, Israel isn't one.
Only the most suicidal of states would openly demonstrate their nuclear capability on their own soil. Better for them to be unsure than certain you have the capability.
MKSheppard wrote:
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:Just because they can produce enriched uranium does not mean they can build nuclear weapons.
Getting fissile is one of the largest logistical hurdles in producing a nuclear weapon -- everything else is just basic engineering -- and Iran is certainly more advanced than the US of 1945-50 was; due to the much more advanced global market now -- they can buy high end desktops, milling machines, etc off the open market pretty much, unlike North Korea.
Much easier to build a wheel when you already know its general shape:

http://images.google.com/images?sourcei ... =en&tab=wi
User avatar
eion
Jedi Master
Posts: 1303
Joined: 2009-12-03 05:07pm
Location: NoVA

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by eion »

Sorry, forgot this.

I was talking about this with my brother last night.

Ostensably, Iran wants nuclear power, and has said they have no interest, at the moment, in nuclear weapons. Now I know it is a very quick jump technically from 20% (nuclear power grade) to 90% (weapons grade) enrichment.

They refused offers to enrich their nuclear fuel out of country and import it for power use. Even if they agreed to it, they concivable could take that 20% and enrich it to 90% rather easily.

Is there a way to enrich, encase, or mix nuclear fuel so that it cannot be turned into weapons grade material easily?
User avatar
MKSheppard
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Posts: 29842
Joined: 2002-07-06 06:34pm

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by MKSheppard »

eion wrote:Only the most suicidal of states would openly demonstrate their nuclear capability on their own soil. Better for them to be unsure than certain you have the capability.
Nevada and Siberia disagree with you. :wink:
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
User avatar
MKSheppard
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Posts: 29842
Joined: 2002-07-06 06:34pm

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by MKSheppard »

eion wrote:Now I know it is a very quick jump technically from 20% (nuclear power grade) to 90% (weapons grade) enrichment.
Actually, you don't need 20% for nuclear power. You just need about 3-4% enrichment, as you can just keep emptying the spent fuel and loading in fresh ones in a civilian land reactor. Where you need highly enriched nuclear fuel is in volume and time limited applications, such as naval reactors (who use 90+ enrichment), or space reactors.
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
User avatar
eion
Jedi Master
Posts: 1303
Joined: 2009-12-03 05:07pm
Location: NoVA

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by eion »

MKSheppard wrote:
eion wrote:Only the most suicidal of states would openly demonstrate their nuclear capability on their own soil. Better for them to be unsure than certain you have the capability.
Nevada and Siberia disagree with you. :wink:
Sorry, should have read, "Only the most suicidal of <i>post-superpower</i> states..."

Meaning what we have here is an Israel situation. Everyone is fairly certain that they have the bomb, but it is not 100% certain, so there is some ability to postpone developing their own nuclear arms.

If Israel had conducted an open test, EVERYONE in the middle east would have put their nuclear programs on the fast-track.

When only the US had bombs, they tested both to prove they had it, and to improve their bombs. When the USSR developed their own, they tested it to prove a counter-attack capability.

When your scale only has two ends, its easy to balence out.
Simon_Jester
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 30165
Joined: 2009-05-23 07:29pm

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by Simon_Jester »

eion wrote:Only the most suicidal of states would openly demonstrate their nuclear capability on their own soil. Better for them to be unsure than certain you have the capability.
...Why?

I mean, why would anyone be less likely to attack you when they think you might be able to drop a nuclear bomb on their heads than when they know you can? How is it not to your advantage to advertise?

Seriously, Eion, if you don't test you don't know your bombs work, and that's a major disadvantage. Look at the North Koreans: it's ambiguous whether their first nuclear test actually succeeded; the bomb may have fizzled, or at best partially initiated. If your design is flawed or you need better industrial capability to make the bombs work... you need to know.

Likewise, your argument about nuclear arms races is of limited value because it assumes that people won't consider the possibility of your acquiring nukes a reason to actually get their own. And that you don't actually need to be able to advertise your own nuclear deterrant in order to stop someone from invading you by purely conventional means, for purely conventional reasons.
This space dedicated to Vasily Arkhipov
User avatar
adam_grif
Sith Devotee
Posts: 2755
Joined: 2009-12-19 08:27am
Location: Tasmania, Australia

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by adam_grif »

Anyone care to put odds on Israel and Iran duking it out again in the near future?
A scientist once gave a public lecture on astronomy. He described how the Earth orbits around the sun and how the sun, in turn, orbits around the centre of a vast collection of stars called our galaxy.

At the end of the lecture, a little old lady at the back of the room got up and said: 'What you have told us is rubbish. The world is really a flat plate supported on the back of a giant tortoise.

The scientist gave a superior smile before replying, 'What is the tortoise standing on?'

'You're very clever, young man, very clever,' said the old lady. 'But it's turtles all the way down.'
User avatar
That NOS Guy
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1867
Joined: 2004-12-30 03:14am
Location: Back in Chinatown, hung over

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by That NOS Guy »

adam_grif wrote:Anyone care to put odds on Israel and Iran duking it out again in the near future?
Again?
Image
User avatar
UnderAGreySky
Jedi Knight
Posts: 641
Joined: 2010-01-07 06:39pm
Location: the land of tea and crumpets

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by UnderAGreySky »

MKSheppard wrote:
eion wrote:Only the most suicidal of states would openly demonstrate their nuclear capability on their own soil. Better for them to be unsure than certain you have the capability.
Nevada and Siberia disagree with you. :wink:
Pokhran and the Chagai Hills, too!
Can't keep my eyes from the circling skies,
Tongue-tied and twisted, just an earth-bound misfit, I
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by K. A. Pital »

Israel is probably too small to conduct a nuclear test in it's own territory without reprecursions.

Iran, on the other hand, is not. Perhaps Mahmoud does one. In a while.

Then again, outside of creating another "Israel-Iran" nuclear standoff (there already exist US-USSR/Russia, India/Pakistan), Iran's nuclear program wouldn't accomplish much. It would certainly prevent an open invasion of Iran by United States and/or any Middle East union of nations (if Iran demonstrates the ability to detonate a few devices before that), though. Saddam's main failure was that he had no nuclear weapons in Iraq. The US fears nukes, like any other sane nation, and would not attack a nuclear power (unless attacked first).
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
adam_grif
Sith Devotee
Posts: 2755
Joined: 2009-12-19 08:27am
Location: Tasmania, Australia

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by adam_grif »

That NOS Guy wrote:
adam_grif wrote:Anyone care to put odds on Israel and Iran duking it out again in the near future?
Again?
Whoops. For some reason I had it in my head that Iran participated in the Yom Kippur war, but obviously I was wrong (never studied it or anything). I have no idea where this idea came from.

Was there some incident involving a nuclear enrichment facility getting an airstrike from Israel, or was that another country/my overactive imagination playing up again?
Last edited by adam_grif on 2010-02-11 11:12pm, edited 1 time in total.
A scientist once gave a public lecture on astronomy. He described how the Earth orbits around the sun and how the sun, in turn, orbits around the centre of a vast collection of stars called our galaxy.

At the end of the lecture, a little old lady at the back of the room got up and said: 'What you have told us is rubbish. The world is really a flat plate supported on the back of a giant tortoise.

The scientist gave a superior smile before replying, 'What is the tortoise standing on?'

'You're very clever, young man, very clever,' said the old lady. 'But it's turtles all the way down.'
User avatar
Rogue 9
Scrapping TIEs since 1997
Posts: 18684
Joined: 2003-11-12 01:10pm
Location: Classified
Contact:

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by Rogue 9 »

adam_grif wrote:
That NOS Guy wrote:
adam_grif wrote:Anyone care to put odds on Israel and Iran duking it out again in the near future?
Again?
Whoops. For some reason I had it in my head that Iran participated in the Yom Kippur war, but obviously I was wrong (never studied it or anything).

Was there some incident involving a nuclear enrichment facility getting an airstrike from Israel, or was that another country/my overactive imagination playing up again?
The Osirak facility in Iraq was bombed to hell and back by Israel in 1981.
It's Rogue, not Rouge!

HAB | KotL | VRWC/ELC/CDA | TRotR | The Anti-Confederate | Sluggite | Gamer | Blogger | Staff Reporter | Student | Musician
User avatar
adam_grif
Sith Devotee
Posts: 2755
Joined: 2009-12-19 08:27am
Location: Tasmania, Australia

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by adam_grif »

Wargarble.

Going to shut up before I stick my foot further into my mouth.
A scientist once gave a public lecture on astronomy. He described how the Earth orbits around the sun and how the sun, in turn, orbits around the centre of a vast collection of stars called our galaxy.

At the end of the lecture, a little old lady at the back of the room got up and said: 'What you have told us is rubbish. The world is really a flat plate supported on the back of a giant tortoise.

The scientist gave a superior smile before replying, 'What is the tortoise standing on?'

'You're very clever, young man, very clever,' said the old lady. 'But it's turtles all the way down.'
User avatar
Arthur_Tuxedo
Sith Acolyte
Posts: 5637
Joined: 2002-07-23 03:28am
Location: San Francisco, California

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by Arthur_Tuxedo »

Seems like Ahmadinejad is seeking the best of both worlds. By not actually producing a bomb he avoids Iran becoming a pariah state and retains the ability to play the victim in case of attack, but he still keeps other nations afraid because a working bomb is so close within reach.

Personally, the prospect of Iran getting the bomb doesn't keep me up at night. If they actually did what conservatives feared and passed it off to terrorists (because THE TOWELHEADS ARE CRAZY!!!!) everyone would instantly know who was responsible and the retaliation would be swift and final. The only likely outcome is an Iran-Israel permanent standoff not unlike the Cold War detente between the US and Soviets, which could be viewed as an improvement to the current unstable powder keg that could blow up at any moment.
"I'm so fast that last night I turned off the light switch in my hotel room and was in bed before the room was dark." - Muhammad Ali

"Dating is not supposed to be easy. It's supposed to be a heart-pounding, stomach-wrenching, gut-churning exercise in pitting your fear of rejection and public humiliation against your desire to find a mate. Enjoy." - Darth Wong
User avatar
eion
Jedi Master
Posts: 1303
Joined: 2009-12-03 05:07pm
Location: NoVA

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by eion »

Simon_Jester wrote:
eion wrote:Only the most suicidal of states would openly demonstrate their nuclear capability on their own soil. Better for them to be unsure than certain you have the capability.
...Why?

I mean, why would anyone be less likely to attack you when they think you might be able to drop a nuclear bomb on their heads than when they know you can? How is it not to your advantage to advertise?
Has less to do with whether they are inclined to attack you, and more to do with how they will attack you and how that attack will be perceived.

I'm Israel. My neighbor Egypt has vowed my destruction. I develop nuclear weapons should I ever need to use them, but I do so in secret, and test them in secret. In a US/USSR situation, both parties knowing the other has nuclear weapons is a good thing because there is a balance of threat. But one of the reasons the USSR developed nuclear weapons was to counter a known US advantage, which required them to publicly demonstrate the capability to dissuade the US from using a first strike.

In this example, Egypt does not know for sure I have developed nuclear weapons. But more importantly, if they develop nuclear weapons to respond to my assumed nuclear advantage, I can claim my program was in response to theirs. For a country like Israel that relies on support from the west, this is vital. They must be seen as the victim at all times, as the responder, not the instigator.
Simon_Jester wrote:Seriously, Eion, if you don't test you don't know your bombs work, and that's a major disadvantage. Look at the North Koreans: it's ambiguous whether their first nuclear test actually succeeded; the bomb may have fizzled, or at best partially initiated. If your design is flawed or you need better industrial capability to make the bombs work... you need to know
Absolutely, you have to know they'll work. But if you’re the first guy, you gain no advantage by telling the world you've cracked it. Did the US take out full page ads after Trinity? FUCK no.
Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test) wrote:The Alamogordo Air Base issued a 50-word press release in response to what it described as "several inquiries" that had been received concerning an explosion. The release explained that "a remotely located ammunitions magazine containing a considerable amount of high explosives and pyrotechnics exploded," but that "there was no loss of life or limb to anyone."[29] A newspaper article published the same day stated that "the blast was seen and felt throughout an area extending from El Paso to Silver City, Gallup, Socorro, and Albuquerque."[30] The actual cause was not publicly acknowledged until after the August 6 bombing of Hiroshima.

The Manhattan Project's official journalist, William L. Laurence, had put multiple press releases on file with his office at The New York Times to be released in case of an emergency, ranging from an account of a successful test (the one which was used) to more macabre scenarios explaining why all of the scientists had perished in a single freak accident.
See also: The Vela Incident (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_Incident), or How to set off a nuclear bomb without anyone knowing you're the one who did.

The worst thing you can do as the first nuclear power is to tell the world you're now a nuclear power. By doing so you've demonstrated you are a craven, warmongering maniac. You have given up the option of surprise, the position of reactionary for instigator, and have just forced the hands of all your adversaries. Now they MUST develop a counterattack to your new weapon.

In a two nuke-power standoff situation, that need for secrecy is gone. Your opponent has to know you've got em, and you'll use em, but only if he does first. Mutually Assured Destruction is absolutely insane, <b>but it works</b>, and probably kept the world safe for 50 years; it is the only sane and winning move in a game of nuclear chess.
Simon_Jester wrote:Likewise, your argument about nuclear arms races is of limited value because it assumes that people won't consider the possibility of your acquiring nukes a reason to actually get their own. And that you don't actually need to be able to advertise your own nuclear deterrant in order to stop someone from invading you by purely conventional means, for purely conventional reasons.
And if they publicly disclosed, you can claim your program is in response to theirs, and again you have popular support.

I'm Israel, and if I develop nuclear arms, and tell everybody about it, my neighbors will either develop their own as a deterrent or develop strategies or technology to counter them. The only viable number of nuclear power states is 0, 2, or many; 1 is not a stable option. If they know I have them, They MUST act. If they think I have them, they lack the obligation to. They may still plan for it, but they can't justify openly developing their own or deterrence to them without being labeled instigators.

That is why a sane, rational state, when it is the first nuclear power (actual or public) in its sphere of influence develops nuclear weapons, but tells no one. Rumors are not facts, and you can’t as an enemy state reveal what you know without revealing how you know.

Sorry that was so long.
User avatar
eion
Jedi Master
Posts: 1303
Joined: 2009-12-03 05:07pm
Location: NoVA

Re: Iran now a nuclear state.

Post by eion »

Arthur_Tuxedo wrote:Seems like Ahmadinejad is seeking the best of both worlds. By not actually producing a bomb he avoids Iran becoming a pariah state and retains the ability to play the victim in case of attack, but he still keeps other nations afraid because a working bomb is so close within reach.

He's walking a fine line. Openly bragging about your ability to make a bomb is almost as bad as making it, especially if you're actually years away from being able to do so. Better to develop the capability as part of a larger nuclear power program. People are than aware you could make a nuclear weapon, but not certain you are determined to do so.
Arthur_Tuxedo wrote:Personally, the prospect of Iran getting the bomb doesn't keep me up at night. If they actually did what conservatives feared and passed it off to terrorists (because THE TOWELHEADS ARE CRAZY!!!!) everyone would instantly know who was responsible and the retaliation would be swift and final. The only likely outcome is an Iran-Israel permanent standoff not unlike the Cold War detente between the US and Soviets, which could be viewed as an improvement to the current unstable powder keg that could blow up at any moment.
It's getting there that's the problem. Once you're in the standoff, things are pretty stable. The US and USSR benefited because their territories were separated enough that both would have good warning of an attack for a response, creating MAD, and the likelihood of a private in the US/USSR armed forces starting a nuclear war by shooting at the enemy was lessened.

Of course, the Cold War also created Korea, Vietnam, and many other hot spots, so its not a perfect situation, and I for one don't really want to so an Iran/Israel series of puppet conflicts.
Post Reply