I'm skeptical that WebM/VP8 will be able to challenge, let alone overtake, H.264, which is used almost everywhere and plays on just about everything. Almost every mobile device capable of playing back video has a hardware H.264 decoder, not just those made by Apple. My android phone has one, my brother's web-enabled BluRay player has one, etc.
I'm a freelance editor and a number of local post houses as well as other freelancers are either looking into or have already installed hardware H.264 encoders. One facility I freelance for installed a turnkey encoder into their machine room primarily to deliver live feeds to their national broadcast clients, as apparently H.264 is in used in that market as well, in addition to web/mobile, BluRay, etc. These hardware encoders allow real-time or faster encoding and since H.264 is used everywhere, it works for virtually any delivery medium.
Of course, the first hardware WebM/VP8 decoders and encoders are due to be released this quarter, but no word who will be installing them in their products. It's called the
RK29xx made by Rockchip and apparently
it can do full 1080p video conferencing with minimal battery usage.
Of course, there are already millions of H.264-capable devices that will never be able to play back WebM/VP8 until their owners replace them, and without any WebM-exclusive content, you won't see people rushing to replace their phones or BluRay players just to get the new format.
Adding WebM support also means more money spent on hosting and bandwidth for delivering video, since H.264 can't simply be abandoned. Fortunately, any web browser that doesn't support H.264 (Firefox, Opera, Old versions of most other browsers, and now Chrome) can simply fall back to a Flash-based player which will play H.264 files just fine.
Flash also plans to support WebM, which will allow browsers that don't support the format to play the format, but this won't work on devices that don't support Flash.
In the various tests comparing H.264 and WebM/VP8, VP8 appears to be inferior in many cases to H.264, and even the most favorable reviews show VP8 is only on par with H.264, not surpassing it in terms of quality vs. bitrate.
This leaves it's patent-free status as its one and only advantage over H.264.
While MPEG-LA and
others have disputed this status, even if turns out to be true, supporters of VP8 would do well to remember that H.264 became the defacto industry standard in spite of it's patent-encumbered status and associated licensing fees. It's clearly not the deal-breaker WebM supporters would have us believe.
The large number of existing devices that will only ever play H.264 means that even if support for WebM becomes ubiquitous in newer devices, content providers cannot simply ignore the H.264 format for the foreseeable future. However, they can ignore WebM without any consequences.
WebM could improve it's odds if it offered some more compelling advantages, such as:
- If support for the format becomes common and it remains patent-free, content providers could reduce their licensing fees for H.264 by using WebM as the primary format and using H.264 as a fallback format.
- WebM supporters have pointed out that the encoding software for VP8 has a lot of room for improvement, and that the quality of VP8 could be improved substantially without having to update or upgrade any decoders. If a VP8 stream could achieve the same quality with a much lower bitrate than H.264, that would be a huge advantage.
- Premium content that is only available in WebM would encourage consumers to update/upgrade software and devices in order to access WebM content.