PkbonupePeter_Kcos8 wrote:The sad part is that, in many parts of the Third World, it actually is. I've heard plenty of stories about medical clinics in dire need of supplies being packed to the roof with boxes of condoms and contraceptives instead.
I will try and find a source for this claim.
Good luck.
Specifically, this is the part of the "Zero Population Growth" argument which I have a problem with as there is little to no empirical evidence in either historical industrialization or current efforts to suggest that this is actually the case. Everyone simply seems to assume that it is and try to silence any opinion which tries to state otherwise.
They try to silence opinions only when those opinions appear foolish, such as when some random person pops up and repeatedly ignores the argument that
there is not enough food to feed infinity people.
If you attempt to ask why, the answer you will inevitably recieve is some red herring along the lines of "global warming...*mumble, mumble*...poverty...*mumble, mumble*" ...
On the contrary. Most of them are quite above-board about the argument that
there is not enough food to feed infinity people.
Question: which is cheaper, birth control for one couple or feeding one person?
Which is not only cheaper, but better for a man in the longrun; giving him a fish, or teaching him to fish?
That is not an answer to the question, as you are surely wise enough to know.
__________
A government is busily running around trying to increase agricultural production, after the disastrous damage done by a previous administration of incompetent morons. They are already trying to produce food for roughly 20% of the human race on roughly 7 to 8% of the world's cropland. By longstanding custom, rural families have roughly four children apiece. The government has recently introduced semimodern medical care to the country, so that infant mortality has dropped down into the single digits- of those four children, all will probably survive to adulthood, instead of two or three.
You are inadvertently offering a false analogy by ommitting one major fact; China never would have had such problems with famine if Mao hadn't wrecked Chinese agriculture in the interests of forcing breakneck pace industrialization to begin with. In this case, population control was a direct measure intended to cover up for the general incompetence of the Chinese government.
I wrote:A government is busily running around trying to increase agricultural production, after the disastrous damage done by a previous administration of incompetent morons.
I must ask how and why you overlooked the part I just underlined?
Mao was the incompetent moron. Also, Mao died in 1976, the year before the One Child policy was enacted.
So yes, the One Child policy
was an attempt to control damage caused by incompetent government policy. However, we cannot reach backwards in time and undo damage done by idiots in the past; we can only stop being idiots and hope that the damage does not carry on into the future.
Imagine that we made the Chinese government go bye-bye in 1977 and replaced them with you. What would you have done differently? What option could you pursue that would be
less wrong than forced birth control?
3) The government can attempt to find more land within its own borders to farm.
Theoretically, this would be a great solution if there were any to be had. Unfortunately, as is true in most of the world, practically all the land the government controls that can be farmed is being farmed, as intensively as local infrastructure allows. Expanding farming within the government's borders would require extensive land reclamation projects, at a very high cost in labor and resources per acre. To make matters worse, the reclaimed land would often not be viable in the long term, because it would only be farmable at the expense of draining non-renewable resources like water and oil-based fertilizers. Eventually, this newly claimed land would become desert once again, the farms on it would fail, and the food supplied by those farms would be gone. At which point we're back to option (1), mass death on a scale that makes the Holocaust look petty.
Would this be right?
If at all possible, I would go with this option. If handled properly, there is no reason why it could not work.
Thank you for answering my question.
There is no reason this could not work... except, well, science. Look, Pete, consider the following:
1)As I said, China had roughly 20% of the world population at the time. In 1975, their population was
roughly 900 million. The world population was just over four billion (same source). Thus... somewhere around 23 to 25%. Today, it's more like 20%.
2)China does NOT have 23 to 25% of the world's arable land. As of 2001, it had roughly
1.4 million square kilometers (half a million square miles, give or take). The world's total arable land is [
https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... os/xx.html]about 10% of the total[/url], which adds up to 15 million square kilometers (about five to six million square miles, give or take).
3)Therefore, China is ALREADY trying to maintain 20% of the world's population on 10% of the world's farmland. This is
after over three decades of land reclamation efforts since 1977
and after decades of the One Child policy.
Now, rewind to 1977. You can predict roughly how much more land you will be able to cultivate. Remember that there are limits: areas where the soil is too thin to support anything more than low-intensity cattle ranching, the sides of mountains, the middle of the Gobi Desert, and so on. These areas
cannot be farmed. Areas near them
might be farmed, but only for a few years, so they do not count for purposes of avoiding long term famines caused by a
permanent shortage of food compared to the number of mouths to feed.
But allowing for those limits, and given how much labor and capital your government has, you can predict how much land you will be able to make arable in the next thirty years, ending in 2007. You can also predict how much
existing farmland will be lost to things like the growth of cities and to salinization caused by over-irrigation of dry soil.
____________
Now, suppose that the Chinese equivalent of the Department of Agriculture comes to you and says "Look, boss, we can only increase the total area under cultivation by maybe another 10 or 20% in the next thirty years, and even that's pushing it."
And that's a pretty likely estimate, because China has been farmed for
five thousand years. In China, if there is a patch of land where a peasant farmer can raise a crop reliably, you can bet that there is a peasant farmer raising a crop there. The only areas that can still be brought under cultivation are the ones that cannot be farmed at all without modern technology. Like really
huge irrigation projects, so huge that even millenia of Chinese emperors commanded forced labor battalions of many thousands could not build them. But projects like that are expensive. China can only afford so many of them, and most of them will only add relatively marginal land that is less fertile than the areas already being cultivated.
Again, assume that you
can't increase the available supply of arable land by more than 10% or 20% in the next thirty years. Your country is ALREADY suffering famines, because Mao reduced agricultural productivity while trying to increase the population at the same time. You're trying to undo the harm he did in agriculture, but will that be enough? Remember, at four children per family, the population will
triple in thirty years' time. And that was the average back in 1977.
So, when 2007 rolls around, can you bet on being able to feed
2.7 billion people on a maximum of
six hundred thousand square miles of farmland? Which is, again, more than the Chinese actually have today; we're assuming that they do more to bring in new farmland than the large amount they actually did.
Or heck, let's be ridiculously generous. Assume that for every two square miles of land China is actually farming, there's another one they could have farmed if they really wanted to. That brings us up to 750000 square miles. So I ask you, Oh Great Leader: can you do it? Can you support 2.7 billion people on three quarters of a million square miles of farm land?