Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by PeZook »

Einzige wrote: It probably wouldn't, at least in and of itself. But people are irrational; if this becomes a sticking point for militant nationalists, it might contribute to ill-feeling towards Russia.
Well, fortunately, Poland doesn't really have militant nationalists, at least not in power. The most right-wing party (which the president came from) advocated that Poland should play tought with Russia, but they were not, you know...batshit crazy.

Some people will cry foul, of course: they did when Kaczynski's convoy was attacked in Georgia. Truth is, Russia doesn't need an incident like that, especially since Kaczynski was already on his way out. But why the hell would they want to do something like that? There's nothing to gain. Kaczynski annoyed them, but they just dealth directly with Tusk instead.
eion wrote: At least they had the good sense to send the PM and his staff on a separate plane. Thank god for government contingency planners. If there’s one thing governments do well it’s paying people to sit in dark back-rooms and think up the most unlikely and unthinkable scenarios and come up with what to do if they happen.
No, no, you misunderstood the situation: originally, there was supposed to be just one ceremony, with Putin and Tusk (the Polish Prime Minister) in attendance.

However, the opposition and the president whined and bitched and hollered, so the Russians decided to organize a second ceremony, which was to be attended by Kaczynski and Medvyedyev (goddamn, I still have trouble spelling his name).

The crash happened with the delegation that was supposed to attend that second ceremony. The PM was back in poland for a day now.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by eion »

PeZook wrote:
eion wrote:At least they had the good sense to send the PM and his staff on a separate plane...
No, no, you misunderstood the situation: originally, there was supposed to be just one ceremony, with Putin and Tusk (the Polish Prime Minister) in attendance.

However, the opposition and the president whined and bitched and hollered, so the Russians decided to organize a second ceremony, which was to be attended by Kaczynski and Medvyedyev (goddamn, I still have trouble spelling his name).

The crash happened with the delegation that was supposed to attend that second ceremony. The PM was back in poland for a day now.
Ah. Well that’s a horrible kind of cosmic irony then.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Skgoa »

Why are you all going crazy over this being akin to a casus belli? If the russians do stupid stuff like saying "its our jurisdiction", THAT would have a bad (though probably limited) effect on relations between Poland and Russia. But this seems to have been a tragic but "normal" transportation accident. These things happen. The only way to blame the russians would be to claim that they had tricked him into wanting to come so they could murder him... :lol:
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

What the fuck? I just fucking bad mouthed the guy the day before and now he's dead?

What kind of ... grand cosmic joke is this?
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Sarevok »

I believe you wondered how Polands imbecile for President can fuck something up this time.

Well...the universe has a bad a sense of humor it seems. Nothing the Polish President could have said would have been as bad as what he unintentionally accompolished in this tragic accident.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Siege »

Holy shit, I was never a fan of Mr. Kaczynski and his right-wing hyper-Catholic views but this is terrible, and I don't think there's recent precedent anywhere for such a large number of VIPs dying in a single catastrophe. At least most of these people will have deputies who can immediately take over the departments of the people killed but even then, I wouldn't dare speculate on the political impact of an incident like this. It's just absolutely terrible on every level.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Broomstick »

First, my condolences to Poland and any Polish members we have here.

Second, the scenario of heavy fog is sufficient to explain the crash though, of course, it should be thoroughly investigated to determine what, exactly, happened. If they made multiple attempts to land... well, over here in the US the correct thing to do is to divert to another, nearby airport with less fog, but I don't know what the situation was over there, or how close "nearby" is in regards to Russian airports. The US has significantly more airports per unit of area than any other country, which skews my perspective.

Third - cordoning off a crash site and seeking copies of photos, interviewing people, etc. are all standard procedure in a crash here in the US, so in a sense what the Russians did makes some sense, yet I gather they did it in a rather heavy-handed, authoritarian manner that has pissed people off. Well, it's not the first time, right? Hopefully, no one uses this to stir up trouble.

But - guys, that many VIPs on one airplane? The US has lost a few high ranking politicians in plane crashes, but there are strict policies regarding how many on board one aircraft. I imagine Poland will be reviewing their practices now, too.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Big Orange »

Wow, anything that could go wrong in this event, short of actual foul play, did go wrong. :shock:

It seems to be just a very badly timed aircraft accident, although the Russian authorities as per usual are handling things with the usual lack of sensitivity and trust, but nothing to start a war over.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

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Broomstick wrote: Second, the scenario of heavy fog is sufficient to explain the crash though, of course, it should be thoroughly investigated to determine what, exactly, happened. If they made multiple attempts to land... well, over here in the US the correct thing to do is to divert to another, nearby airport with less fog, but I don't know what the situation was over there, or how close "nearby" is in regards to Russian airports. The US has significantly more airports per unit of area than any other country, which skews my perspective.
Currently, the version keeps changing every minute. First they said there were four attempts, then that the crash happened on the first one, that the plane was too low, that it tried to turn, etc.

Some aviation experts have said on record that the pilot could've suffered an attack of vertigo. Since the airport supposedly didn't have an ILS system, it's not that far fetched.
Broomstick wrote: Third - cordoning off a crash site and seeking copies of photos, interviewing people, etc. are all standard procedure in a crash here in the US, so in a sense what the Russians did makes some sense, yet I gather they did it in a rather heavy-handed, authoritarian manner that has pissed people off. Well, it's not the first time, right? Hopefully, no one uses this to stir up trouble.
Yeah, they are seizing cameras, where I'm sure everyone they asked would have gladly given them copies of the photos. But as I wrote, that's pretty much what they always do.
Broomstick wrote: But - guys, that many VIPs on one airplane? The US has lost a few high ranking politicians in plane crashes, but there are strict policies regarding how many on board one aircraft. I imagine Poland will be reviewing their practices now, too.
Well, the US also has a lot more airplanes to spare for one.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by eion »

PeZook wrote:
Well, the US also has a lot more airplanes to spare for one.
Yeah, but the head of state, the chief of the general staff, and the heads of services all on the same plane? Some could have flown commercial or taken the train.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Big Orange »

This has echoes of a plane crash in later WWII where crucial Polish officers died when their Liberator crashed after taking off from Gibraltar...
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Broomstick »

PeZook wrote:
Broomstick wrote: Second, the scenario of heavy fog is sufficient to explain the crash though, of course, it should be thoroughly investigated to determine what, exactly, happened. If they made multiple attempts to land... well, over here in the US the correct thing to do is to divert to another, nearby airport with less fog, but I don't know what the situation was over there, or how close "nearby" is in regards to Russian airports. The US has significantly more airports per unit of area than any other country, which skews my perspective.
Currently, the version keeps changing every minute. First they said there were four attempts, then that the crash happened on the first one, that the plane was too low, that it tried to turn, etc.

Some aviation experts have said on record that the pilot could've suffered an attack of vertigo. Since the airport supposedly didn't have an ILS system, it's not that far fetched.
No ILS?

In heavy fog?

:shock: :banghead:

That definitely carries significant risk. Mind you, that sort of approach and landing can be done safely (Haitian relief efforts, anyone? Of course, they restricted those flights to daytime and good weather...), but in the US the policy is normally that commercial aviation and airplanes carrying VIPs stick to ILS approaches. Then again, ILS approaches are not uncommon even at general aviation airports in the US (not universal, but you definitely find them), and nearly universal at commercial hubs. Not so other places.

(ILS stands for Instrument Landing System - they allow very precise approaches even in zero visibility although it is still necessary, at a certain altitude, for the pilots to be able to actually see the airport runway to land safely, unless it's a Category III system, which basically lets the airplane land itself. Those are not so common, even in the US)
Broomstick wrote:Third - cordoning off a crash site and seeking copies of photos, interviewing people, etc. are all standard procedure in a crash here in the US, so in a sense what the Russians did makes some sense, yet I gather they did it in a rather heavy-handed, authoritarian manner that has pissed people off. Well, it's not the first time, right? Hopefully, no one uses this to stir up trouble.
Yeah, they are seizing cameras, where I'm sure everyone they asked would have gladly given them copies of the photos. But as I wrote, that's pretty much what they always do.
Let's hope the historical, um, rudeness of Russian officials goes towards "explaining" this action and that that knowledge keeps people from going berserk over the matter.
Broomstick wrote:But - guys, that many VIPs on one airplane? The US has lost a few high ranking politicians in plane crashes, but there are strict policies regarding how many on board one aircraft. I imagine Poland will be reviewing their practices now, too.
Well, the US also has a lot more airplanes to spare for one.
True, true... and hindsight is 20/20. No doubt it seemed like a good idea at the time...
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Big Orange »

This avoidable shit happened perhaps because the needs of political officials went over the needs of the stressed pilot and general safety. The pilot should be in charge, not the VIPs whatever their position or rank, so that the dangerous landing could've been called off and the plane diverted to another airport with safer weather. While Poland certainly has not the same resources as the US Government (with the PotUS' impressive skyfleet), I thought they could've arranged two or three seperate flights, in a aircraft that was of a Boeing or Airbus make.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by folti78 »

They tried to land on the Smolensk-North military airbase, since the runway of the civilian airport of Smolensk (Smolensk-South) too short for a Tu-154. This could explain the confiscating cameras and maybe the lack of ILS.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Broomstick »

Big Orange wrote:This avoidable shit happened perhaps because the needs of political officials went over the needs of the stressed pilot and general safety. The pilot should be in charge, not the VIPs whatever their position or rank, so that the dangerous landing could've been called off and the plane diverted to another airport with safer weather. While Poland certainly has not the same resources as the US Government (with the PotUS' impressive skyfleet), I thought they could've arranged two or three seperate flights, in a aircraft that was of a Boeing or Airbus make.
I doubt the problem was the make of airplane - I think you nailed in regards to the "the needs of the VIPs" possibly overriding the pilot(s), and the weather. However, determining exactly what happened will require an investigation, and that will require time. Right now all we have is speculation.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Big Orange »

Broomstick wrote: I doubt the problem was the make of airplane
In the actual crash it would've made little difference, but it seemed a bit nutty to send so many Polish officials and brass up in a old ex-Soviet bucket of bolts in one go. Either way precautions similar to the ones taken by the US Government are going to be enacted after this tragedy to avoid having a whole batch of VIPs dying in one plane crash.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

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GHETTO EDIT: Apparently the unfortunate pilot was requested to divert the plane and land somewhere more suitable, but he declined, trying to land the plane four times.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by PeZook »

Big Orange wrote:GHETTO EDIT: Apparently the unfortunate pilot was requested to divert the plane and land somewhere more suitable, but he declined, trying to land the plane four times.
I have to wonder if it was hubris or pressure from the VIPs who didn't want to be late to the ceremony.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Teebs »

Does anyone know who is next in the line of succession for the presidency? Basically is it someone from Civic Platform (Tusk the PM's party) or from Law and Justice (Kaczynski's party)? I could see that having an impact on the Polish reaction. A replacement from Law and Justice would be less moderate and possibly much closer to the deceased President.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by salm »

Komorowski (president of parliament) will be the intermediate president. Within 14 days he has to set a date for new elections.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by PeZook »

And to answer the second part of the question, he's a member of the Platform, and he's been nominated a presidential candidate a few weeks ago.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Gandalf »

Right now they have Bronisław Komorowski. He's akin the the VP.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronis%C5%82aw_Komorowski
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by MKSheppard »

Holy crap:

Lech Kaczyński, President of Poland
Maria Kaczyńska, First Lady of Poland
Krystyna Bochenek, Deputy Speaker of the Senat
Bishop Miron Chodakowski, Orthodox Ordinary of the Polish Army
Leszek Deptuła, member of the Sejm
Grzegorz Dolniak, member of the Sejm
Janina Fetlińska, member of the Senat
General Franciszek Gągor, Chief of the Polish Army General Staff
Grażyna Gęsicka, member of the Sejm
Przemysław Gosiewski, member of the Sejm
Mariusz Handzlik, Undersecretary of State in the Office of the President of the Republic of Poland
Izabela Jaruga-Nowacka, member of the Sejm
Ryszard Kaczorowski, the last President of the Polish government-in-exile
Sebastian Karpiniuk, member of the Sejm
Vice Admiral Andrzej Karweta, Commander-in-chief of the Polish Navy
Janusz Kochanowski, Polish Ombudsman
Andrzej Kremer, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs
Janusz Kurtyka, Historian and president of the Institute of National Remembrance
Aleksandra Natalli-Świat, member of the Sejm
Piotr Nurowski, President of the Polish Olympic Committee
Maciej Płażyński, President of the Polish Community Association
Tadeusz Płoski, bishop of the Military Ordinariate of the Polish Army
Krzysztof Putra, Deputy Speaker of the Sejm
Andrzej Przewoźnik, Secretary-General of the Council for the Protection of Struggle and Martyrdom Sites
Ryszard Rumianek, Rector of the Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University
Arkadiusz Rybicki, member of the Sejm
Sławomir Skrzypek, President of the National Bank of Poland
Władysław Stasiak, Chief of the Office of the President of the Republic of Poland
Aleksander Szczygło, head of the National Security Bureau
Jerzy Szmajdziński, Deputy Speaker of the Sejm
Jolanta Szymanek-Deresz, member of the Sejm
Anna Walentynowicz, free trade union activist, member of Solidarity
Zbigniew Wassermann, member of the Sejm
Wiesław Woda, member of the Sejm
Edward Wojtas, member of the Sejm
Paweł Wypych, Secretary of State in the Office of the President of the Republic of Poland
Stanisław Zając, member of the Senat
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by Kuroji »

This is why you don't send large parts of the government together in the same vehicle, whether by air or sea. Fortunately you wouldn't be able to fit all of them into anyone's presidential limo... but... yeah.

I'm sure Poland's politics will definitely be shaken up in the wake of all of this, but I don't really think that any real instability will end up coming out of this, let alone any accusations from anyone but the conspiracy nuts that Russia did this intentionally. Those black boxes serve a purpose, after all. Though I'll admit I am very interested in finding out what's on it as soon as they recover it, and whether the mandatory 'oh shit' from the pilot in perfect English is present as it often is in air accidents.
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Re: Breaking: Plane carrying Polish president crashes in Russia

Post by The Duchess of Zeon »

Skgoa wrote:Why are you all going crazy over this being akin to a casus belli? If the russians do stupid stuff like saying "its our jurisdiction", THAT would have a bad (though probably limited) effect on relations between Poland and Russia. But this seems to have been a tragic but "normal" transportation accident. These things happen. The only way to blame the russians would be to claim that they had tricked him into wanting to come so they could murder him... :lol:
Because some people are just retarded and think any incident like this will propel two nations toward war. No, I think it could lead to a bunch of mutual recrimination and major backsliding in relations, but that's it, and I'm not sure why the hell Einzige even brought up war, except too much Command and Conquer.
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