Volcanic eruption closes down UK/Scandinavian airports

[El Moose Monstero]

Katla. And if she were to go, it'd be game over. But there are no links, so far, that Eyjafjallajokull (I LOVE that name, like someone spazzing at the keyboard) has an impact on the supervolcano. Though the last time this current volcano got going was around 1821, and lasted two years.

Iceland, tt should be said, potentially caused the famines and general climate chaos that helped set things like the French Revolution up and the worst food shortage in Japanese history.

Katla as a supervolcano? I'm doubtful tbh - you got a credible source for that? Without doing any more reading than wiki and a total abscence on scholar and webofscience of hits for Katla + supervolcano, wiki says it goes off every 40 years or so, the ones that go off that frequently aren't really on the supervolcano radar, and you'd tend to expect supervolcano to be more on the rhyolite end of the compositions rather than the basalts.

EDIT: And if it's the chap from the Alaska Met Office you're citing, then I'm not sure I'd trust his judgement - he got the global cooling effect of Pinatubo wrong by a ridiculous amount, 4 degrees instead of 0.1 degrees cooling. If he actually knew about volcanic impacts on climate, there's no way he'd get that wrong.

[Admiral Valdemar]

I'd read it on a geology blog the other day, though I can't find which one it was from my history. I guess the term may have been misused, given while Laki and Katla aren't Yellowstone, they can certainly cause global fallout from a major eruption, as can others on Iceland, which is just one big volcanic nursery.

I'm definitely keeping an eye on how this eruption affects anything else on the island. The one last month was likely the same source as the one we're getting now, but was redirected thanks to the glaciers, producing a wet eruption at first with mostly steam and the bigger threat being flooding.

I can't say I've seen the Alaska Met Office dude though. I've only caught BBC and ITV news on the matter today.

[Serafina]

Well, the first german airports are closing, too - Hamburg and Berlin already are closed, and others are preparing to close down when necessary too.
First estaminates project that 1/4th of all flights in Europe will be cancelled today.

While Katla is a larger volcanic system, it has only a central volcanic mountain and does not qualify as a super volcano.

[Dartzap]

Looks like the Met Office are deploying a team of scientists to the volcano on a 'special plane' to sort it out and demand reimbursement. They also plan on making an 80's tribute film.

[Sky Captain]

It`s just reported that Latvia also closed it`s airspace. It looks like the ash cloud is going to affect nearly whole northern and western Europa. This is probably going to be largest disturbance of commercial air travel in history and these kinds of eruptions potentially can go on for months. If this volcano continues to erupt and possibly triggers other nearby volcano it can potentially wreak havoc in air traffic for several months including the busy summer months when people usually go on holidays.

[Dartzap]

I don't suppose a mod would like to change the title to "Volcanic eruption buggers European air traffic" or, uh, something more sensible? As its not just the UK or the Nords that are affected any more.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

This might be a really bad kick to the already unstable pack of cards that is the airline industry. I wonder what will happen next.

[Broomstick]

Just don't forget that volcanic ash is STONE. Finely grinded stone, but it's still the same material.

Some of it is stone... but some of it is glass. Finely ground glass.

And it tends to clog together if it get's wet, too.

So the hazards of flying a plane trough a cloud of volcanic ash should be quite obvious.

In addition to its clogging properties, stone and glass particles can actually abrade away things like turbine fins. It literally grinds them away. This destroys the engines.

It can also "sandblast" windows, leaving them opaque which, needless to say, complicates landing.

British Airways Flight 9 is one of the better known incidents where an airplane survived an ash cloud. Two of the more memorable quotes from the captain were:

Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them under control. I trust you are not in too much distress.

And, in reference to landing while unable to see through the abraded cockpit windows: "a bit like negotiating one's way up a badger's arse"

Anyhow - while I'm sure this is horribly distressing, inconvenient, and problematic for air travelers it is NOT as bad as experiencing what Flight 9 did, or worse yet, crashing into the Atlantic or Europe. Hence, the canceled flights.

ETA: Darn! Scooped by Underagreysky! Oh, well, like I said, it's a well known incident....

[Admiral Valdemar]

No. Being unable to see my 25-year-old son's second marriage in Benidorm is WORSE THAN DEATH! Can't you people see that? It'd KILL me to be stuck for an hour at an airport because of the wrong kind of dust! It's at 30,000 feet, why don't they just make the planes fly at 10,000 feet instead? Typical nanny statist alarmism.

And so on.

[Broomstick]

It`s just reported that Latvia also closed it`s airspace. It looks like the ash cloud is going to affect nearly whole northern and western Europa.

It's actually anticipated that the ash cloud will circle the world - the US will eventually get it some time next week or so, but it's expected that by then it will have dispersed enough not to be hazard to North American air travel.

This is probably going to be largest disturbance of commercial air travel in history and these kinds of eruptions potentially can go on for months.

Yep, if it goes on for a few more days it certainly could be that bad.

[Admiral Valdemar]

This would make any future BA strikes from cabin crew rather less effective.

I hope this goes on for months. And we all start flying airships again.

[Broomstick]

Volcanic ash trashes their engines too. And when that crap accumulates on top of an airship envelope it is a real problem, as that stuff weighs tons and can, conceivably, weigh down an airship to the point of crashing.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Yeah, the even better result would be transatlantic sailings becoming competitive over air. It would be cool if all air traffic in Europe was closed for six months, even if extremely unlikely--we'd have to come up with real workable alternatives which will use less energy, we'll get a nice reduction in fuel used, and of course a cooling effect from atmospheric soot.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Volcanic ash trashes their engines too. And when that crap accumulates on top of an airship envelope it is a real problem, as that stuff weighs tons and can, conceivably, weigh down an airship to the point of crashing.

Not at the levels airships fly at. They've allowed light aircraft to fly here, and it would be entirely possibly to use electric motors and side-step the air issue. Plus, at the levels we're talking about for ash, another R101 is unlikely. If it started hitting airships like that, then we'd have bigger problems. Like the killing off of all our livestock and the need to shovel the roads constantly.

But sailing would be nice also. This problem is really only impacting on our modern way of travel, which conveniently occurs where these eruptions cause most widespread damage. I find it intensely interesting how this will unfold.

[Mr. Tickle]

But sailing would be nice also. This problem is really only impacting on our modern way of travel, which conveniently occurs where these eruptions cause most widespread damage. I find it intensely interesting how this will unfold.

In real terms I've heard it commented that really it was the initial explosive stage that's sent all the ash into the air, even if it keeps going off for awhile it'll never reach the heights it has. With absolutely no basis to voice this opinion I'm predicting it'll drift on for the next day and eventually we'll get back to normal by saturday (apart from clearing the backlog of ppl/planes in the wrong places)

[Lord Pounder]

I'm actually enjoying this, I'm stuck in my folks house and they live right beside Belfast City Airport, the area hasn't been this quiet since I was a child, kinda unsettling in a way.

In other news because of the grounding my union rep, whos is based in London, texted to tell me Communication Workers Union fucked me over instead of flying in, taking me to a starbucks and buying me a frap first.

[Admiral Valdemar]

In real terms I've heard it commented that really it was the initial explosive stage that's sent all the ash into the air, even if it keeps going off for awhile it'll never reach the heights it has. With absolutely no basis to voice this opinion I'm predicting it'll drift on for the next day and eventually we'll get back to normal by saturday (apart from clearing the backlog of ppl/planes in the wrong places)

The eruption is growing in strength, according to the Icelandic authorities, and the plume is reaching up to 11 km, so if anything, it's getting bigger, not subsiding.

[El Moose Monstero]

In real terms I've heard it commented that really it was the initial explosive stage that's sent all the ash into the air, even if it keeps going off for awhile it'll never reach the heights it has. With absolutely no basis to voice this opinion I'm predicting it'll drift on for the next day and eventually we'll get back to normal by saturday (apart from clearing the backlog of ppl/planes in the wrong places)

The eruption is growing in strength, according to the Icelandic authorities, and the plume is reaching up to 11 km, so if anything, it's getting bigger, not subsiding.

It was the initial meltwater-magma interaction which triggered the disproportionate explosive eruption, so unless there's another new fissure opening up reaching new ice and triggering new melting, once the current vent has melted a big enough hole (already 200m wide apparently) and the meltwater has drained away, everything will be fine. I think a couple of days, unless the new fissure opening up is somewhere where it'll get access to water, is probably realistic assuming that the current vent is all that's coming.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The thing is, this recent eruption is just a redirected continuation of the one in March. There's nothing to say this doesn't fizzle out, only to find another weak area near the same glacier to erupt from with renewed pressure. If the majority of the pressure has been relieved this time, then that may be it, but as we've not seen this glacier suffer such an event since the 19th century, it could be, like the ash, up in the air how it pans out. This event is 20 times or so larger in magnitude, so it may last far less than the lower energy eruption long ago.

There's a lot of snow and steam still making the webcams hard to look at, though that should clear tomorrow. The Terra and Envirosat spectral imagery give a better indication of how wide and how far this current ash cloud is. The jet stream hasn't helped us so far, but it may dissipate the current cloud quickly if no more eruptions take place with high rock content.

[El Moose Monstero]

Absolutely, I guess I'm just being cautious because by and large, I think its very easy to overhype volcanic threats, because there's so few people really qualified to tell you whether or not somethings going to happen, and there's so many unknowns still remaining. IMO a heavy dose of caution, particularly when dealing with newspaper reports and newspaper language rather than say, volcano observatory activity reports, is vital. If, tomorrow morning, we get an 'oh shit' from the icelandic volcano observatory websites, then we can have all sorts of fun speculating about the chaos that may be wreaked!

[Admiral Valdemar]

Looking at the NATS statements and various space agency sat images, it doesn't look like tomorrow will be good either. If it does clear up soon, I expect Saturday as others think now. That's, of course, assuming no further activity for the time being. This is already costing us £300M a day for industry.

[Broomstick]

Volcanic ash trashes their engines too. And when that crap accumulates on top of an airship envelope it is a real problem, as that stuff weighs tons and can, conceivably, weigh down an airship to the point of crashing.

Not at the levels airships fly at. They've allowed light aircraft to fly here, and it would be entirely possibly to use electric motors and side-step the air issue.

Good point - over here the news is giving the impression that OMIGOD EUROPE IS SHUT DOWN DOOM DOOM DOOM! and it wasn't until I hit the internet I got a better picture of things over there. The cloud is in the upper troposphere, not the lower. Got it.

[Admiral Valdemar]

I do hear that the Shetlands are getting some ash fall now, and the taste and smell of sulphur has been apparent as far south as Glasgow. I've not seen or smelt anything, but then I'm in the east nearer London. The best I get is a fairly cloudy, but quiet sky (bar one Cessna flying over my workplace early afternoon).

The NATS site is awaiting a new update now. Should be up within the next few minutes.

[Broomstick]

If the ash gets perceptible on the ground level it will probably ground all aircraft. I know that I, for one, would not want to fly an airplane of any sort through that shit.

If the ash is at ground level it's not too healthy for people or animals, either. From what I saw on the news Iceland downwind of the eruption is a bit.... overcast. Like, night-dark at noon, but they didn't have more than a few seconds of it. I'm assuming they showed the worst, as usual.

[UnderAGreySky]

It's strange... the skies here are crystal clear today. Of course, doesn't mean it's safe, just... weird. Flights over UK airspace suspended till 1 AM Saturday now. To be updated today afternoon, prognosis not good