The Norks are Suspected of Sinking South Korean Shipping.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The plot thickens. I didn't really doubt that this was potentially an act of war from the Norks; we just needed actual evidence for that view. I think the economic factor will make this unlikely to explode into anything more than a stern condemnation from the government, and increased vigilance for future patrols once a best guess as to what munition caused this catastrophe is considered.

Also, that point about autopsies caught my eye. It does sound like a belief that gets in the way of a lot of official investigations from coroners.

[Sarevok]

I also dont think the North Koreans did it on purpose, assuming it was a North Korean mine or torpedo responsible. The North Koreans have little to gain and everything to lose by sinking a warship and provoking South Korea.

[Thanas]

Dammit, too late to add to my above post...

Compare a slightly reduced-in-size picture of the salvaged stern of the Cheonan with that of a reversed image of the Iri (Cheonan's sister ship of the same class) as seen on page one of this thread and the scale of the destruction is quite stark:
*snip*

Are you sure these are really sister ships? Because the stern superstructure looks very much unlike.

[FSTargetDrone]

Dammit, too late to add to my above post...

Compare a slightly reduced-in-size picture of the salvaged stern of the Cheonan with that of a reversed image of the Iri (Cheonan's sister ship of the same class) as seen on page one of this thread and the scale of the destruction is quite stark:
*snip*

Are you sure these are really sister ships? Because the stern superstructure looks very much unlike.

Not 100% sure, but from all I've seen and read, both ships are of the same class and are the same variant (discussed on the first page of this thread). The angle of photo differs slightly between the Cheonan and that of the Iri, but to me they look similar. Some of the wreckage is obscured by lifting cables, and that white sheeting.

Can any experts here comment? To me they look quite similar, damage notwithstanding.

[CJvR]

That looks very much like a major mine or an under the keel torpedo or something simillar.
Shells is really only ventilation improvements on ships, when you start using mines and torps then you really mean it.

There was a missile launcher just above the break but I have serious doubts even a perfectly syncronized detonation would be enough to break a ships spine like that.

So it is back to that most intresting question - Now what? The Norks sank your ship, what are you going to do about it? This still have potential to turn supremely nasty.

I suspect the incident wasn't planned by little Kim, or at least not the scale since the Norks have been oddly silent on the matter. Normally they are rather quick to brag / condem, depending of the outcome, their little firefights with the Southerners.

[CJvR]

To me they look quite similar, damage notwithstanding.

Looks the same to me. The tubes behind the aft superfiring turret is aimed in the opposite direction but appart from that it is a match IMPO.

[FSTargetDrone]

Looks the same to me. The tubes behind the aft superfiring turret is aimed in the opposite direction but appart from that it is a match IMPO.

The tubes you describe aren't opposite in reality--I reversed the image of the Iri for the sake of the comparison here (note the reversed bow numbers-768). Look at the same image on page one and you will see that the tubes (the tubes furthest aft) behind that turret are aimed towards the port side on both ships.

Sorry about the confusion!

[Sea Skimmer]

I also dont think the North Koreans did it on purpose, assuming it was a North Korean mine or torpedo responsible. The North Koreans have little to gain and everything to lose by sinking a warship and provoking South Korea.

Nope that’s not how North Korea works. North Korea is held together by external pressure. They in fact have nothing to gain and everything to loose by relations ever improving. Everyone in power would be lined up against a wall and shot (at best) if the country were to liberalize. So constantly provoking incidents, which is what North Korea has done constantly since 1953 is par the course. Sinking a South Korean warship really isn’t any difference in scale then crap they’ve pulled in the past and gotten away with.

[FSTargetDrone]

Also, that point about autopsies caught my eye. It does sound like a belief that gets in the way of a lot of official investigations from coroners.

Can families of other countries' service members ask for no autopsy in cases like this for religious reasons?

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I wonder if they plan to dig up the remaining 3/4 of the ship. That stern section is a mere 1/4!

And yeah, N. Korea breaks the rules in diplomacy so often, anything they do has to have some construed benefit for themselves. They do have serious internal problems right now. They just executed the men in charge of some botched currency reform that led to some degree of rare protest from N. Koreans. Right now, they do need to divert some attention from that.

And as for S. Korea, it isn't to their benefit to even invade N. Korea! Who wants to sink their economy with a war and rebuilding?

[Sea Skimmer]

I wonder if they plan to dig up the remaining 3/4 of the ship. That stern section is a mere 1/4!

They expect to raise the bow within the next 10 days.

[Fire Fly]

I also dont think the North Koreans did it on purpose, assuming it was a North Korean mine or torpedo responsible. The North Koreans have little to gain and everything to lose by sinking a warship and provoking South Korea.

I think there are two things to remember:

1. North Korea recently devalued their currency, resulting in many people losing their money and simmering anger at the government. North Korean money was being defaced by people, a crime punishable by death.

2. There is an ongoing transition in the political leadership of the country and Kim needs the support of the military to support his son or whoever is to be his successor.

A covert attack on South Korea would quell the dissent and solidify the military's support and boost their morale.

That said, North Korea torpedoed South's navy ship

North Korea torpedoed South's navy ship: report

(Reuters) - South Korea's military believes a torpedo fired from a North Korean submarine sank its navy ship last month, based on intelligence gathered jointly with the United States, a news report said on Thursday.

The Yonhap news report appears to be the clearest sign yet that Seoul blames Pyongyang for what would be one of the deadliest incidents between the rivals since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War. It puts more political pressure on President Lee Myung-bak, but analysts do not see it triggering a war.

The military's intelligence arm sent the report of "certain" North Korean involvement to the presidential Blue House soon after the incident, Yonhap quoted a high-ranking military source as saying.

Lee's government has come under criticism for what many see as its overly cautious handling of possible links to North Korea. It has called for a thorough investigation of the sinking, thought to have killed 46 sailors.

Market players have been calmed by the South's measured response, seeing Seoul as unlikely to take aggressive moves that would escalate into armed conflict and harm the export-driven economies of North Asia, responsible for about one-sixth of the global economy.

South Korea's defense ministry had no comment on the report.

"North Korean submarines are all armed with heavy torpedoes with 200 kg (441 lb) warheads," the military source was quoted as saying by Yonhap. "It is the military intelligence's assessment that the North attacked with a heavy torpedo.

"The military intelligence has made the report to the Blue House and to the Defense Ministry immediately after the sinking of the Cheonan that it is clearly the work of North Korea's military," the source was quoted as saying.

South Korea plans to soon raise the front half of the 1,200-tonne Cheonan, which went down near a disputed sea border with North Korea, and will issue its verdict on the cause of the explosion that sank the warship after that.

Analysts said there is little South Korea can do even if Pyongyang is found to be the culprit, because a military response was likely to hurt its own quickly recovering economy and bolster North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's standing at home.

Lee ended a decade of no-questions-asked aid to the destitute North and called for a hardline push for Pyongyang to disarm.

"The nuclear issue has still not been resolved. This and the Cheonan incident all serve to inflict a negative impact on the Lee administration," said Lee Nam-young, a political analyst at the Sejong University in Seoul.

The reclusive North has denied it had anything to do with the sinking near the disputed sea border off the west coast that has been the scene of two deadly naval battles in the past decade.

It accused Lee of using the incident for political gains ahead of crucial local elections in June.

South Korea has few economic options left to hurt the North. It has already suspended its unconditional handouts that once were worth more than $1 billion to the North, which has an estimated yearly GDP of $17 billion.

The greatest risk to the region is a brief armed conflict where North Korea fires tens of thousands of artillery shells into the Seoul area, home to about half of the South's 49 million people, and fires its hundreds of missiles at major cites in the South and Japan.

Yonhap said the South Korean and U.S. military suspected the North was stepping up drills to infiltrate a submarine south of the naval border, hidden among Chinese fishing boats, and wage a surprise attack against the South.

(Reporting by Jack Kim and Christine Kim; Editing by Jon Herskovitz and Alex Richardson)

[MKSheppard]

This is the part where we blow the north korean navy apart and sink everything.

[Ryan Thunder]

This is the part where we blow the north korean navy apart and sink everything.

Sure, if you don't mind trading Seoul for that, from the looks of it.

I do mind, for once.

[ShadowDragon8685]

So... What now?

They did it; can you let them get away with it?

Can any country just ignore an overt act of war against them? I mean, what the hell will that cause?

It tells everyone that you're spineless. Want to pirate some ships? Go for the South Korean ones, they won't do shit. Want to pick a fight? South Korea won't retaliate until it's too late.

More, what kind of effect would it have on the morale of the South Korean armed forces? Knowing that those who have sworn themselves to be your enemies can simply slaughter you at will and your government won't so much as avenge your death? I dunno about everyone else, but that would wreck my morale.

[MKSheppard]

Sure, if you don't mind trading Seoul for that, from the looks of it.

We blew apart and sank the Iranian Navy back in the eighties or early nineties after one too many tanker war crap. The Iranians didn't retaliate against us.

[Ryan Thunder]

Sure, if you don't mind trading Seoul for that, from the looks of it.

We blew apart and sank the Iranian Navy back in the eighties or early nineties after one too many tanker war crap. The Iranians didn't retaliate against us.

The Iranians didn't have thousands of big guns pointed at a major city, either. How could they retaliate?

[MKSheppard]

By gee, you know, blocking the Straits of Hormuz and strangling a major portion fo the world's oil supply?

[Ryan Thunder]

By gee, you know, blocking the Straits of Hormuz and strangling a major portion fo the world's oil supply?

I thought you said that we blew up their navy. Exactly what are they planning on blocking the Straits with? Rafts?

[MKSheppard]

Exactly what are they planning on blocking the Straits with? Rafts?

It's called antiship missiles launched from trucks, you moron.

Jesus do I have to draw you lot a fucking map?

[Lonestar]

I thought you said that we blew up their navy. Exactly what are they planning on blocking the Straits with? Rafts?

Out of curiosity, how does it feel to be a really stupid person?

We didn't blow up their entire navy, plenty of Boghammer-type craft could be used to cause trouble(all you need is one mine to impact something for all traffic to shut down), or hell, maybe they would just use aircraft to drop mines.

[hongi]

This is the part where we blow the north korean navy apart and sink everything.

Go for it America! Since it's obvious the SK government has no wish to go to war, I guess the good old US will have to take one for the team.

[Simon_Jester]

This is the part where we blow the north korean navy apart and sink everything.

Sure, if you don't mind trading Seoul for that, from the looks of it.
I do mind, for once.

So do I. They have a truly unreasonable number of cannons pointed at the place. And I know someone over there I kinda like. Who I'd rather not see scattered all over the landscape by an artillery barrage.

So... What now?

They did it; can you let them get away with it?

First of all, it isn't nailed down yet. Remember the Maine?{/i] We thought that had been sunk by enemy action too. Nowadays... people aren't so confident.

Second of all, the problem is that any war between North and South Korea is going to kill one hell of a lot more than forty-eight people. I suspect they'd be lucky if it only kills forty-eight thousand people.

[Norseman]

So... What now?

They did it; can you let them get away with it?

Yes of course you can let them get away with it, you can let people get away with anything.

Can any country just ignore an overt act of war against them? I mean, what the hell will that cause?

It tells everyone that you're spineless. Want to pirate some ships? Go for the South Korean ones, they won't do shit. Want to pick a fight? South Korea won't retaliate until it's too late.

Not really, it's like the French being "wussy" when it comes to the rioting in their own cities. If anyone thinks that this extends to them being passive or submissive when their troops are deployed in Africa... well let's just say that if you survive you won't make that mistake again. Likewise most people understand that South Korea can and will retaliate so long as the problem is not on their own peninsula.

Even if bombing Seol was off the table, it probably is since the North Koreans aren't suicidal, it might not matter. Like most countries domestic politics trumph foreign policy any time of the week, domestically the current government is heavily invested in a Sunshine policy, and domestically any military action would be very popular. Now certainly you might trigger a wave of patriotism, but then again you might not. Would you as a politician be willing to gamble with your own career and your party's future prospects for that? Even if you were do you think the party senior leadership would share your views?

Military options and ideological "coulda, shoulda, woulda,"'s are irrelevant if the political will is lacking.

More, what kind of effect would it have on the morale of the South Korean armed forces? Knowing that those who have sworn themselves to be your enemies can simply slaughter you at will and your government won't so much as avenge your death? I dunno about everyone else, but that would wreck my morale.

The South Korean forces know what's what, they've been dealing with this kind of stuff for a long time, and if it didn't ruin their morale before it's not about to start now.

[Mr. Coffee]

By gee, you know, blocking the Straits of Hormuz and strangling a major portion fo the world's oil supply?

They did try that once. We responded by sinking most of their goddamned navy, Shep.