Volcanic eruption closes down UK/Scandinavian airports

[MKSheppard]

The solution really, is to build a superliner using the 280,000 shp powerplant of US Big deck CVNs. You'd be able to make 35 knots sustained cruise speed; that crosses the Atlantic in three days and 12 hours.

[Admiral Valdemar]

That's why they want the governments to basically give them the all clear to continue flight operations. I doubt their insurers will go for that. Lloyds of London won't be insuring an airline that actively flies jets full of passengers through an ash cloud. That is not how one earns money or a good reputation.

I hate to say it, but I imagine a big "I told you so" coming down the line if this pressure gets through and air travel restarts, only for a near fatal incident to take place. If the maintenance costs go sky high, and the ticket prices with them, I wonder how loud the backpedaling will be...

Shep, make it a hydrofoil too. Or a WIG. It's funny, looks like those things would be ideal now for getting to Europe at least, now that the RN is planning on rescuing people in Dunkirk Pt. II.

[Isolder74]

the problem with reverting to Atlantic shipping to fill in the gap is the low numbers of passenger equipt ships available. Have space to stick people isn't enough. The regulation themselves limit how many people you can cram into a ship because you still have to have enough liftcraft for all the registered passengers before you set sail.

[Teebs]

Space planes would be nice (or having a rocket boost phase to get through the ash cloud, and relying more on GPS), but I don't think it really helps our present predicament any more than my wish for atomic city block sized airships. But it looks like the ATC are getting pressured even more by the airlines to let them fly, so it may be that eventually they'll just let them go.

A comment from the Eruptions blog:

snip

Commenting on a couple of points in the blog entry.

I think consumer protection laws in Europe would make it difficult for airlines to pull off an 'at your own risk' type thing. Certainly in the UK you cannot contract away liability for death caused by negligence.

On airlines becoming consolidated transport companies, this is already kind of the case in at least some European countries with airlines running carriages on high speed trains as 'flights'. I think Air France is looking to run trains on the Channel Tunnel route once Eurostar loses its monopoly too.

[Sky Captain]

How easy or difficult is it these days to cross the Atlantic by ship? I would think the majority of shipping traffic was freight, and there wouldn't be much in the way of passenger ships besides the hideously expensive cruise ships.

While there are`t dedicated transatlantic ocean liners these days I think retasking few cruise ships to run transatlantic routes so the stuck travellers could get home should be possible.

Repositioning sailings for the normal summer cruising season in European waters are available for booking and are being booked out solid by people trying to get home to Europe. The Queen Mary also sailed with a full load from New York.... It's a damned shame the SS United States is in poor condition--if I knew this thing would last two years, well, easy enough to do a rush job of restoration in 9 months and then reap a killing on profits for the next 15, but that's unlikely. Cruise ships could certainly be used across the Atlantic, and most freighters also have a half a dozen to a dozen cabins that can handle like 10 - 20 passengers. I imagine those will rapidly get booked out by savvier individuals.

I can imagine biggest trouble is for those who are stuck in Europe and can`t get back home to Eastern Asia or vice versa. Only serious alternative to flying I know is Transsiberian railway and I`m sure it can`t handle the sudden wave of travellers. Getting a Russian visa also may take some time.

EDIT

Here is the compilation of todays shots from a webcam with better wiew of a volcano which is no longer accessible online.
http://picasaweb.google.com/10217539123 ... fApril2010#
As you can see during the brief moments when cloud cover parts ash plume is still there.

[FSTargetDrone]

Me neither, I've not been in a plane since 2002. But you're a silly drone who needs to be shotdown, so flying is hazardous for you.

Decoys, sir, decoys. All the rest are decoys. When the time is right (and finances permit) I'll be up in the air again.

It's a damned shame the SS United States is in poor condition--if I knew this thing would last two years, well, easy enough to do a rush job of restoration in 9 months and then reap a killing on profits for the next 15, but that's unlikely.

You must be reading my mind. I was just thinking about the ship when I saw Sky Captain's post above. Sadly, the ship is rusting away on the Delaware in Philadelphia and may well be scrapped. Damn shame indeed.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Me neither, I've not been in a plane since 2002. But you're a silly drone who needs to be shotdown, so flying is hazardous for you.

Decoys, sir, decoys. All the rest are decoys. When the time is right (and finances permit) I'll be up in the air again.

It's a damned shame the SS United States is in poor condition--if I knew this thing would last two years, well, easy enough to do a rush job of restoration in 9 months and then reap a killing on profits for the next 15, but that's unlikely.

You must be reading my mind. I was just thinking about the ship when I saw Sky Captain's post above. Sadly, the ship is rusting away on the Delaware in Philadelphia and may well be scrapped. Damn shame indeed.

That's why I said a 9-month rush job to get her into service. And 9 months is optimistic.

[CJvR]

Well I suppose cruise ships could do the transatlantic trade in an emergency, but they are not built for the high speed crossings of the true liners.

[FSTargetDrone]

Lest we forget about farmers and livestock:

Iceland's farmers try to save herds from ash

'Animals like the salty taste' but it can cause bleeding, bone damage

By CARLO PIOVANO
Associated Press
updated 2 hours, 41 minutes ago

SKOGAR, Iceland - In Europe, the volcanic ash danger travels at high altitudes, but for Iceland's farmers the problem is very much on the ground.

Farmers across the region where the volcano erupted this week under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier have been scrambling to protect their herds from inhaling or ingesting the ash, which can cause internal bleeding, long-term bone damage and teeth loss.

Near Skogar, south of the volcano, the ash blew down from the mountain, blotting out the sunlight and covering everything — pastures, animals and humans — in a thick, gray paste.

Berglind Hilmarsdottir, a dairy farmer, teamed up with neighbors Saturday to round up her cattle, some 120 in all, and get them to shelter. In the panic, some of the animals got lost in the fog of ash, and the farmers had to drive around searching for them.

"The risk is of fluoride poisoning if they breathe or eat too much," Hilmarsdottir said through a white protective mask.

The fluoride in the ash creates acid in the animals' stomachs, corroding the intestines and causing hemorrhages. It also binds with calcium in the blood stream, and after heavy exposure over a period of days makes bones frail, even causing teeth to crumble.

Locked up in barns

"The best we can do is put them in the barn, block all the windows and bring them clean food and water as long as the earth is contaminated," said Hilmarsdottir.

The volcanic ash, which has spread over Europe to bring air travel to a near standstill for days, has not settled in other countries in any great quantities. It gets thinned out and blown to high altitudes by the wind, threatening to knock out jet engines with its abrasiveness, but is not expected to endanger those countries' human or animal populations.

In Iceland's rural region near the volcano, the amount of ash is becoming overwhelming. The vast majority of the country's farming activity is based on herding cattle, horses and sheep, so the stakes are high for the farmers.

On the north side of the volcano, a valley hit by violent floods but so far spared from the ash fall, 33-year-old sheep farmer Anna Runolfsdottir was preparing for the worst — that the wind direction could change and spread the ash over more land, including hers.

It's lambing season, and she expects between 60 and 100 newborns this spring. But if the ash hits her farm, their survival would be uncertain.

Salty taste a danger

"The animals like the salty taste of it, so even if there's just a bit they will be in danger," she said, cradling a lamb while the huge plume of smoke towered in the distance. The problem is not a new one for the farm, which she grew up on and eventually inherited.

In 1947, another volcano erupted further north and the farm was hit. More than 60 years later, some of the ash still scars her back yard, leaving a grass-less patch of black sand.

"In Iceland you live with such things," she said. "But we didn't expect a big one like this."

[Admiral Valdemar]

A danger hinted earlier in the thread, though I imagine many will now have to look into that outside Iceland as the ash is falling in a fairly noticeable amount in places.

[Laughing Mechanicus]

My girlfriend, still stuck in Chicago of course, has been told she has a 'confirmed' flight back late next Thursday - we'll see if that holds. One silver lining on the great ash cloud is that comic con is in Chicago at the moment and she's a comic nerd so is enjoying that.

Down here in the southeast, there has been a very fine coating of black soot over everything and after sitting outside for a while I found my eyes became quite irritated (they are sensitive because I had an eye operation a week ago).

The empty skies are quite eerie.

[Dartzap]

Down here in the South West there has been nothing in the skies at all. No planes, no clouds, just...seagulls, sadly. The sky without clouds is just bloody strange, I demand overcast conditions!

My gran, uncle and cousins have been visiting family in Andalusia, and have been forced to drive up to Madrid, told there's no flights into the UK, and are now driving up to Santander to get a ferry over to Plymouth. Oh well, last time my grand had such a convoluted journey, she was running from the goose-stepping brigade!

[Broomstick]

the problem with reverting to Atlantic shipping to fill in the gap is the low numbers of passenger equipt ships available. Have space to stick people isn't enough. The regulation themselves limit how many people you can cram into a ship because you still have to have enough liftcraft for all the registered passengers before you set sail.

That's why I suggested using cruise line ships. They have life-raft and emergency equipment already on board. If you really stuff the people on you may have to add a little additional, but it's doable.

I heard on the news tonight the UK is considering using Navy ships to transport their people home if necessary.

[Broomstick]

Well I suppose cruise ships could do the transatlantic trade in an emergency, but they are not built for the high speed crossings of the true liners.

Well, it sure as hell beats walking!

If things go on long enough to seriously bring in the cruise line option people will be happy to get home in the time it takes to make the crossing, as the only way that would happen if is the airplanes aren't flying for a long period of time.

[Broomstick]

My girlfriend, still stuck in Chicago of course, has been told she has a 'confirmed' flight back late next Thursday - we'll see if that holds. One silver lining on the great ash cloud is that comic con is in Chicago at the moment and she's a comic nerd so is enjoying that.

I'm glad she found something to do to pass the time!

[Phantasee]

I wanted to clarify my intentions with my previous post: I wasn't referring to "rescuing" people stuck in North America or Europe or whatever. I was thinking more along the lines of, "this no-fly zone persists for several months to a year". What kind of transatlantic capability is there, other than the cruise ships, which are fine for emergencies, but like I said, too expensive for regular crossings.

I'm pretty sure people are used to travelling without much in the way of onboard food, thanks to the airlines. All-you-can-eat buffets would be overkill for a simple trip to London or the Continent, and would probably require new wardrobes at the other end.

[Sky Captain]

I wanted to clarify my intentions with my previous post: I wasn't referring to "rescuing" people stuck in North America or Europe or whatever. I was thinking more along the lines of, "this no-fly zone persists for several months to a year". What kind of transatlantic capability is there, other than the cruise ships, which are fine for emergencies, but like I said, too expensive for regular crossings.

As far as I know only option to allow large scale transatlantic passenger traffic immediately is to assign cruise ships to run transatlantic route. Most of them are capable of sustaining ~20 - 25 knots speed so you are looking at some 5 - 6 days time to cross Atlantic. While there usually is some space for maybe few dozen passengers aboard freighters it`s too little to make a significant dent in overall demand.

I`d also expect the amount of passengers would go down if we are forced to revert to ships because when it takes nearly week to cross Atlantic ocean one way people would consider do they really need to go to America or Europe.

[Phantasee]

Like I just fucking said, I don't really care about the immediate here and now, and I don't give a fuck about cruise ships since they aren't going to be pressed into service by anyone's government.

Learn to fucking read.

[Dartzap]

Begun, the Clon-uh, Lift Has

Three Royal Navy ships will be drafted to help return Britons stranded abroad as UK airspace remains restricted.

The move was announced as the UK's emergency committee Cobra met to discuss options in addressing travel chaos caused by a volcanic ash cloud.

The ships HMS Ark Royal, HMS Ocean and HMS Albion have been pressed into action and are heading for Spain and unspecified Channel ports.

Flight restrictions were extended to at least 0100 BST Tuesday.

Travel agents' association Abta said its "rough estimate" was that 150,000 Britons are currently stranded abroad.

HMS Albion was deployed to Spain to return members of the 3 Rifles regiment to the UK, as they remain stranded on their way back from Afghanistan.

Gordon Brown has spoken to the Spanish premier about the feasibility of some Britons being flown into Spain before a journey by sea to the UK.

Arriving for the Cobra meeting, the Cabinet Office Minister Tessa Jowell said the government will "take advice from [national air traffic control service] Nats and no-one else".

She also confirmed that Transport Secretary Lord Adonis is in hourly contact with individual airlines and denied the government had been slow to act over the crisis.

"At every airport where there are likely to be UK citizens trying to return home there have been consular staff," she said.

It comes as schools are drawing up contingency plans to deal with the absence of teachers stranded by the crisis. A handful of schools have remained closed.

Early reports from Iceland on Monday have suggested the ash column rising from the volcano has reduced since the weekend.

David Rothery of the Open University said that although the ash and wind conditions at the volcanic vent were not necessarily stable, "there are grounds for cautious optimism".

Clouded economics

EU transport ministers are also expected to hold emergency talks by video conference on how to ease the chaos caused by the volcanic ash cloud that has paralysed air travel across Europe.

The talks come as airports and airlines have called for flight restrictions - said to be costing airlines $200m (£130m) a day - to be reviewed.

Cobra Commander is most keen to get his toys working

[Sky Captain]

Like I just fucking said, I don't really care about the immediate here and now, and I don't give a fuck about cruise ships since they aren't going to be pressed into service by anyone's government.

Learn to fucking read.

Developing and building dedicated ocean liners would take at least 2 - 3 years so this option is out even if volcano erupts for 2 years like it did last time. Only way to cross Atlantic are ships and planes, since planes are out only ships remain and since there are no fleet of ready to go ocean liners conveniently waiting in some secret harbor only passenger ships that are available for at least few years are cruise ships. If SS United States can be pressed into service in 9 months then you get your first ocean liner running at the beginning of 2011. Some navy ships may also be used but their passenger capacity is limited.

[Liberty]

Okay, I'm confused. From all the maps I've seen, there is no problem with flying over the Atlantic - so long as you fly into Spain. So it seems to me the discussion should not be how to get across the Atlantic but rather better preparing Spanish airports and ground transport between Spain and the rest of Europe. Or am I missing something?

[Teebs]

Okay, I'm confused. From all the maps I've seen, there is no problem with flying over the Atlantic - so long as you fly into Spain. So it seems to me the discussion should not be how to get across the Atlantic but rather better preparing Spanish airports and ground transport between Spain and the rest of Europe. Or am I missing something?

I have a friend who was in Spain and he said he had to do an overnight coach journey to get back to uni because every train was booked solid. Obviously that would probably be worth it for people who are stuck abroad, but it's not a viable solution to replace normal aircraft travel. The railways have a hard limit on capacity and no one who isn't desperate or a student will want a 36 hour non-stop coach journey.

Amusingly my friend was on a geology field trip (he's doing a masters in it) and the main focus of his supervisor's research is apparently the Icelandic volcano.

[folti78]

Okay, I'm confused. From all the maps I've seen, there is no problem with flying over the Atlantic - so long as you fly into Spain. So it seems to me the discussion should not be how to get across the Atlantic but rather better preparing Spanish airports and ground transport between Spain and the rest of Europe. Or am I missing something?

See Teebs' post, also a good number of airliners sitting on the tarmac at the closed airports all through Europe. So you might not have the capacity to ferry passengers through the ocean, or if you could they get marooned in Spain again.

[Broomstick]

I wanted to clarify my intentions with my previous post: I wasn't referring to "rescuing" people stuck in North America or Europe or whatever. I was thinking more along the lines of, "this no-fly zone persists for several months to a year". What kind of transatlantic capability is there, other than the cruise ships, which are fine for emergencies, but like I said, too expensive for regular crossings.

There isn't any alternative. We have the cruise ships and a very, very limited amount of passenger space on freighters. Oh, private yachts, too, but their contribution would be minuscule.

[Broomstick]

Okay, I'm confused. From all the maps I've seen, there is no problem with flying over the Atlantic - so long as you fly into Spain. So it seems to me the discussion should not be how to get across the Atlantic but rather better preparing Spanish airports and ground transport between Spain and the rest of Europe. Or am I missing something?

Our modern hub-and-spoke system is based on certain types of traffic funneling through certain points. Thus, most trans-Atlantic air traffic goes through big hubs like Heathrow in London, Charles de Gaulle in Paris, and that one in Germany I keep forgetting the name of. Those are the airports equipped to handle large numbers of large airplanes, the needs of international travelers, and the fuel/other supply requirements of trans-oceanic flight. While Spain certainly does get trans-oceanic traffic - I believe Madrid is their big hub, but don't quote me on that - it does not have the capacity to handle ALL the North American-European air traffic, much less everywhere else to Europe. Even if they found enough room to just park airplanes that are boarding/unboarding/being serviced the runways can only hand so much traffic, and the fueling facilities would probably be overwhelmed. Not to mention a sizable portion of the air fleet is grounded under the ash cloud and moving those will be a logistical nightmare so they're more or less unavailable in the short term.

Other airports - never designed or equipped for such traffic. In the US 9/11 demonstrated that you certainly can use smaller airports for larger traffic but the capacity is very limited - not only for the aircraft, but also for the people. Smaller airports don't have the hotel capacity, the food service, the transportation links....

If this turns into a long term problem there will be no choice but to utilize the smaller airports but it will be a nightmare. Thus, even for a week of stopped air travel it's actually better, in some respects (certainly not all) for everyone to sit tight and hope you get the big hubs open again.

On 9/11 in North America the Canadians allowed lots of airplanes to land on their territory, often at much smaller airports than they would normally use. That was fine. Then you had tens of thousands displaced travelers to house and feed in communities never equipped for such an influx of people. Fortunately, folks remained calm and resources were marshaled to deal with the supply problems, but in a number of cases airplanes were ready to leave but couldn't because the airport had run out fuel and they had to wait for more to be shipped in by land.

These logistical and transportation problems can be solved but it will not be done overnight and the land journeys from southern Europe to points north will be crowded and lengthy compared to what people are used to.

But, once again - the smaller airports may be able to handle larger than normal jets but not at the same rate of take offs and landings. Planning will be required to ensure there is room to land and supplies for machines and people when they do land, and supplies to enable aircraft to take off again. Even if you got, say, Charles de Gaulle open again even such a large hub simply does not have the capacity to handle the traffic from all the other closed major hubs.

The bottlenecks are (roughly in order, as near as I can guess - subject to change with further thought)
1) Runway capacity
2) Places to house travelers
3) Food to feed travelers
4) Places to park airplanes
5) Fueling facilities
6) Transportation to other places