Stephen Hawking is Afraid of Aliens.

[Big Orange]

This a rather brief article, but interesting none the less:

Stephen Hawking: alien life is out there, scientist warns
Stephen Hawking has suggested that aliens almost certainly exist but has warned humanity not to try to contact them.

One of the world's leading scientists makes the claim in a new television documentary series, beginning on the Discovery Channel next month.

Hawking says that in a universe with 100 billion galaxies, each containing hundreds of millions of stars, it is unlikely that earth is the only place where life has evolved.

"To my mathematical brain, the numbers alone make thinking about aliens perfectly rational," he said, according to The Sunday Times.

"The real challenge is working out what aliens might actually be like."

Hawking says that they could be microbes – basic animals such as worms which have been on Earth for millions of years, but suggests that extraterrestrial life could develop much further.

"We only have to look at ourselves to see how intelligent life might develop into something we wouldn't want to meet," Hawking said.

"I imagine they might exist in massive ships, having used up all the resources from their home planet. Such advanced aliens would perhaps become nomads, looking to conquer and colonise whatever planets they can reach."

The scientist, who is paralysed by motor neurone disease, warned that contact with alien life could spell disaster for the human race.

"If aliens ever visit us, I think the outcome would be much as when Christopher Columbus first landed in America, which didn't turn out very well for the American Indians."

Telegraph.co.uk

I have a nasty feeling the contact between humans and hostile aliens would resemble Europeans in their sailing ships landing on some tropical shore, but oversized termites overwhelming a rabbit warren.

[Dominus Atheos]

"I imagine they might exist in massive ships, having used up all the resources from their home planet. Such advanced aliens would perhaps become nomads, looking to conquer and colonise whatever planets they can reach."

He's incorrect. There's no reason any aliens would come to our solar system in search of resources. There's plenty of other solar systems that have just as much resources as us, so unless these aliens are currently in Alpha Centauri then there isn't much chance they would come to Sol. Even if they do want to come it wouldn't be because they heard SETI, they'd just be going to every solar system they could find.

And since this event hasn't happened at anytime in the last 15,000,000,000 years, It's very unlikely it would happen in the next 1,000.

[eion]

I for one welcome our new extraterrestrial overlords!

Seriously, even if they wanted to visit our dim little solar system to strip mine it they wouldn't have to touch down on this dirtball. There are enough volatiles in the Kuiper belt and outer solar system to sustain enormous civilizations, and enough metals in the Main belt to build a thousand space ships.

Doesn't mean they couldn't blow us up just for kicks though.

[Oni Koneko Damien]

He's incorrect. There's no reason any aliens would come to our solar system in search of resources. There's plenty of other solar systems that have just as much resources as us, so unless these aliens are currently in Alpha Centauri then there isn't much chance they would come to Sol. Even if they do want to come it wouldn't be because they heard SETI, they'd just be going to every solar system they could find.

And since this event hasn't happened at anytime in the last 15,000,000,000 years, It's very unlikely it would happen in the next 1,000.

Is it hard going through life with no sense of imagination? Just because resources are the reason one makes the jump to space doesn't mean it's the reason for continued expansion. Mankind could increased its resource base by several orders of magnitude if we could find an effective way to exploit the asteroid belt, that doesn't mean there's no attraction to interstellar exploration if we could achieve it.

Hawking's use of words like 'conquer' and 'colonize' implies there's a greater cultural context than just need for resources. What if the aliens are paranoid gits who want to eradicate humanity before they become a possible technological threat/rival? What if they have the alien equivalent of religious reasons for wanting to squash us? What if they're just speciest fucks who would get a kick out of wiping us out? Humanity has demonstrated all of these capabilities to its very own species, who are we to assume theoretical aliens aren't capable of acting just as thoughtlessly? Hawkings' is that humanity has proven that 'intelligent' life can be complete genocidal assholes, and that if there is intelligent life out there, we run the risk of attracting said assholes by blaring out radio-signals in all directions.

[Akhlut]

I for one welcome our new extraterrestrial overlords!

Seriously, even if they wanted to visit our dim little solar system to strip mine it they wouldn't have to touch down on this dirtball. There are enough volatiles in the Kuiper belt and outer solar system to sustain enormous civilizations, and enough metals in the Main belt to build a thousand space ships.

Doesn't mean they couldn't blow us up just for kicks though.

Unless said aliens are looking for novel organic compounds. Sure, asteroids, comets, and lifeless planets are just plain awesome if you want simple materials, but if you want exotic organic compounds for whatever reason, then finding places with life are where you want to go.

In which case, our ecology is fucked if something wants to start rifling through our planet, looking for polymers that they might find useful or interesting.

[Formless]

Hawking's use of words like 'conquer' and 'colonize' implies there's a greater cultural context than just need for resources. What if the aliens are paranoid gits who want to eradicate humanity before they become a possible technological threat/rival? What if they have the alien equivalent of religious reasons for wanting to squash us? What if they're just speciest fucks who would get a kick out of wiping us out? Humanity has demonstrated all of these capabilities to its very own species, who are we to assume theoretical aliens aren't capable of acting just as thoughtlessly? Hawkings' is that humanity has proven that 'intelligent' life can be complete genocidal assholes, and that if there is intelligent life out there, we run the risk of attracting said assholes by blaring out radio-signals in all directions.

The operative word is "What If." I can easily counter with Sagan's observation that these same "what if"s you have posited are just as likely if not more so to cause an intelligent species to self destruct before it ever gets spacecraft off the ground as it is to cause them to attack us.

[Oni Koneko Damien]

Hell, it doesn't even have to be a deliberate act. What if earth happens to have a very rare set of environmental conditions that aliens happen to find as very attractive and a one-in-a-thousand star system opportunity, clearing away humans and other insentient beings so they can relax there. Or what if they're really effin' alien and don't consider us true life but some sort of dangerous self-replicating form of matter than needs to be burned away like a cancer. Or what if they don't intend any harm, but somehow their basic nature or something about them is highly fatal to humans, they have no means of communicating with us, and are too advanced to stop, so they just accidentally wipe us out while poking their noses around the planet?

There are all sorts of reasons a first-contact scenario could go very badly and end with humanity's extinction, and almost none of them have anything to do with a need for resources.

The operative word is "What If." I can easily counter with Sagan's observation that these same "what if"s you have posited are just as likely if not more so to cause an intelligent species to self destruct before it ever gets spacecraft off the ground as it is to cause them to attack us.

So? Hawkings' hypothetical takes an interstellar-capable race that didn't self-destruct as a given, which disqualifies Sagan's what-if. Hawking is just looking at the worst-case scenario and comparing it to historical precedent.

[eion]

In which case, our ecology is fucked if something wants to start rifling through our planet, looking for polymers that they might find useful or interesting.

So,

We are the Rem'ylop. Laboratory synthesis has proven futile. We wish to improve ourselves. We will add your distinctive macromolecules to our own. Your biochemistry will adapt to service ours.

There's almost a plot in there. Maybe Prof. Hawking should try his hand at writing science-fiction.

[General Zod]

Hell, it doesn't even have to be a deliberate act. What if earth happens to have a very rare set of environmental conditions that aliens happen to find as very attractive and a one-in-a-thousand star system opportunity, clearing away humans and other insentient beings so they can relax there. Or what if they're really effin' alien and don't consider us true life but some sort of dangerous self-replicating form of matter than needs to be burned away like a cancer. Or what if they don't intend any harm, but somehow their basic nature or something about them is highly fatal to humans, they have no means of communicating with us, and are too advanced to stop, so they just accidentally wipe us out while poking their noses around the planet?

Maybe they're strip-mining solar systems as they go along and earth just happens to be conveniently in their path. Sort of a "strictly business" situation.

[Oni Koneko Damien]

Maybe they're strip-mining solar systems as they go along and earth just happens to be conveniently in their path. Sort of a "strictly business" situation.

The sound you're hearing is a gaggle of milwankers' heads exploding as they try to explain how a reversal of the scenario in Avatar could never happen.

Edit: Granted, we are just putting words into Hawking's mouth right now. For all we know, he could just be ignorant on the subject of the cost/benefit ratio of resource-harvesting on an interstellar scale. But his statements for the moment are still vague enough to leave the non-resource based possibilities open.

[Formless]

So? Hawkings' hypothetical takes an interstellar-capable race that didn't self-destruct as a given, which disqualifies Sagan's what-if. Hawking is just looking at the worst-case scenario and comparing it to historical precedent.

That wasn't a "what if" on Sagan's part: its an argument against the likelihood of Hawking's hypothetical. Its tempting to look at our own history and extrapolate what a first contact/ outside context problem scenario should look like, but the situations aren't necessarily analogous. Frankly, as has already been said, the fact that it hasn't happened in all the billions of years of life on earth is by itself evidence that the worst case is highly unlikely.

[TithonusSyndrome]

Ugh, I hope this doesn't become Hawking's "nuclear winter" - it's not much of a secret that Sagan dreamed up the scenario because he wanted to scare everyone into behaving, and really, Hawking's suggestion, while perhaps less difficult to immediately disprove and more likely, sounds like an equally spurious gambit.

[Patrick Degan]

Given the not-trivial difficulties involved even in getting to the nearest stellar neighbour, unless Hawking's hypothetical aliens have somehow managed to discover the wrinkle in physics that allows FTL transits, it's very unlikely that any intelligent space-residing race would bother with the effort to migrate for as long as they've still got a star of reasonable energy output to sustain their orbital civilisation —especially if they're advanced enough to undertake radical engineering projects such as starlifting (removing stellar material and thereby reducing the star's mass) to regulate the lifecycle of the primary.

But let's assume that an orbital civilisation (say, at Zeta Reticuli) has reached the end of its recoverable, recyclable resources within its own star system and their sun is approaching the end of its lifecycle, so they have to migrate. Why would they bother to seek out our little patch of space or any star system with habitable worlds in particular? Given that they would already have abandoned planetary living for space habitats long ago, what need would they have for a planet to live on? They'd simply pick the nearest convenient main-sequence star with sufficient luminosity and enough rocky asteroids, moons, and planets to mine and go there. A habitable world is not a requirement. Plus, they don't have to worry about fighting anybody to claim the mineral and energy resources of an uninhabited star system, which makes alien invasion scenarios even less likely.

[eion]

Frankly, as has already been said, the fact that it hasn't happened in all the billions of years of life on earth is by itself evidence that the worst case is highly unlikely.

Unless some aliens really didn't like those dinosaurs strutting around all warm-blooded semi-reptile thinking they owned the Cretaceous and dropped a big iridium bomb on their heads. It would've worked perfectly too if that junior bombardier hadn't forgotten to carry the one in his calculations. After that they just said fuck it and forgot about us, until now…

[TithonusSyndrome]

They'd simply pick the nearest convenient main-sequence star with sufficient luminosity and enough rocky asteroids, moons, and planets to mine and go there. A habitable world is not a requirement. Plus, they don't have to worry about fighting anybody to claim the mineral and energy resources of an uninhabited star system, which makes alien invasion scenarios even less likely.

Assuming a sufficiently advanced alien civilization has undergone similar social movements and moral zeitgeists to ourselves, they may have moral qualms about assuming ownership of a planet whose native life hasn't had the same opportunity to come into their own as they did. I'm not saying they wouldn't do it, but there would probably be dissent and discord about it.

On another note, by this point, this same civilization is probably trans-alien by this point, assuming that is inevitable as it is held to be - so presumably, they'd have seen this coming and made preparations.

[Patrick Degan]

They'd simply pick the nearest convenient main-sequence star with sufficient luminosity and enough rocky asteroids, moons, and planets to mine and go there. A habitable world is not a requirement. Plus, they don't have to worry about fighting anybody to claim the mineral and energy resources of an uninhabited star system, which makes alien invasion scenarios even less likely.

Assuming a sufficiently advanced alien civilization has undergone similar social movements and moral zeitgeists to ourselves, they may have moral qualms about assuming ownership of a planet whose native life hasn't had the same opportunity to come into their own as they did. I'm not saying they wouldn't do it, but there would probably be dissent and discord about it.

Ideology has nothing to do with the matter. Practicality —or rather lack thereof— does.

[General Mung Beans]

Here's an interesting possiblity: what if extraterrestrials were benevolent humanitarians who took over Earth to uplift it technologically and improve the human lot? How would people react?

[Oni Koneko Damien]

That wasn't a "what if" on Sagan's part: its an argument against the likelihood of Hawking's hypothetical. Its tempting to look at our own history and extrapolate what a first contact/ outside context problem scenario should look like, but the situations aren't necessarily analogous. Frankly, as has already been said, the fact that it hasn't happened in all the billions of years of life on earth is by itself evidence that the worst case is highly unlikely.

Except that in the billions of years that life has been on earth, less than a hundred of those years have been spent sending complex radio-signals away from the earth that could be construed as intelligent, long-distance communication, which is what Hawking was afraid would attract the asshole aliens in the first place. And the reason human history is looked at as an analogy is because we're dealing with a complete unknown here. There is nothing else that we can draw on for comparison, unless you want to dig out a few dozen intelligent, advanced species that we can study and establish trends for.

<snip>

Jesus, what part of "Not all reasons for expansion and conflict are strictly resource/habitat based" is so hard to understand? You basically said the exact same thing that DA did, which was already pointed out to be useless if the aliens are on a religious genocidal kick, are sufficiently 'alien' to not even consider us living, but rather as a cancerous threat, or have a sufficiently different view of reality that they don't even realize they're wiping us out as they go through.

Here's an interesting possiblity: what if extraterrestrials were benevolent humanitarians who took over Earth to uplift it technologically and improve the human lot? How would people react?

Probably badly. Most people tend to react badly when the term 'take over' is applied to their homeland, regardless of the conquerers' intentions. Besides that, how do we know they actually know what the fuck they're doing, as opposed to being the alien equivalent of the GWBush administration coming to 'win our hearts and minds'?

[Formless]

Except that in the billions of years that life has been on earth, less than a hundred of those years have been spent sending complex radio-signals away from the earth that could be construed as intelligent, long-distance communication, which is what Hawking was afraid would attract the asshole aliens in the first place. And the reason human history is looked at as an analogy is because we're dealing with a complete unknown here. There is nothing else that we can draw on for comparison, unless you want to dig out a few dozen intelligent, advanced species that we can study and establish trends for.

So can you tell me why a species that likes genocide and religious violence or is psychotic to the point of carelessness would be more interested in conquering us than fighting amongst its own members and ruining the environment of its own habitat(s)? The nations of Europe never stopped waging wars amongst themselves even at the height of colonialism (in fact, the colonies were partly for dick waving rights in that regard). The thing is, they never had nukes or weapons capable of putting everyone out of their misery all at once (such as nukes and designer diseases). You can't have space technology without also having such weapons.

[Sarevok]

I am more afraid about mechanical beings than threat posed by living alien species. A Von Neumann based berserker swarm would not have any morality. Everything would be raw matter and energy to them. Considering the vast distances and time involved in interstellar travel it is likely most star faring beings would be various kinds of artificial intellects. And berserker probes with their ruthless efficiency would probably be far more numerous than the benevolent kind.

[Oni Koneko Damien]

So can you tell me why a species that likes genocide and religious violence or is psychotic to the point of carelessness would be more interested in conquering us than fighting amongst its own members and ruining the environment of its own habitat(s)?

Umm, who said anything about carelessness? And I can give plenty of reasons. Maybe the species evolved to have a strong aversion to infighting, but no such protection against fighting outsiders. Maybe they do fight among each other, but never enough to wipe each other out, and find an even 'lower' humanity to be a glorious target to kick around and squish.

The nations of Europe never stopped waging wars amongst themselves even at the height of colonialism (in fact, the colonies were partly for dick waving rights in that regard). The thing is, they never had nukes or weapons capable of putting everyone out of their misery all at once (such as nukes and designer diseases). You can't have space technology without also having such weapons.

Guess what. We have weapons capable of wiping out all life on earth today, but we fail to use them. Maybe it's because, while being violent and short-sighted, humanity in general also has a strong survival instinct. Who's to say aliens don't have something similar? They're not going to wipe each other out, but why not squish humanity in the name of alien manifest destiny, or because alien Jesus says bipedal minions of Sol-based Satan must be crushed before their spaceships can travel to the alien garden of eden?

Why does it have to be so black and white with you? Either aliens are delightful and advanced beyond the point of all irrationality... or they've wiped themselves out in psychotic fervor, with no in between. Humans have already demonstrated the capability of lying between the two extremes, we destroy environments, engage in genocide and wipe out various species from mindless to near-sentient with reckless abandon, yet we also refrain from using our big bombs to end it all for some strange reason.

I am more afraid about mechanical beings than threat posed by living alien species. A Von Neumann based berserker swarm would not have any morality. Everything would be raw matter and energy to them. Considering the vast distances and time involved in interstellar travel it is likely most star faring beings would be various kinds of artificial intellects. And berserker probes with their ruthless efficiency would probably be far more numerous than the benevolent kind.

That would fall under the "Too alien-minded to give a shit about our survival" portion of my arguments.

[eion]

I am more afraid about mechanical beings than threat posed by living alien species. A Von Neumann based berserker swarm would not have any morality. Everything would be raw matter and energy to them. Considering the vast distances and time involved in interstellar travel it is likely most star faring beings would be various kinds of artificial intellects. And berserker probes with their ruthless efficiency would probably be far more numerous than the benevolent kind.

Any intelligent and mature civilization will realize (hell even our relatively dumb and childish civilization realizes it) this, and if they are benevolent themselves will seek to prevent berserker swarms from existing through some means, and as Formless brings up, any violent civilization will probably destroy itself before it leaves its solar system at all.

[Formless]

Umm, who said anything about carelessness?

are sufficiently 'alien' to not even consider us living, but rather as a cancerous threat,

Sounds like the definition of carelessness to me.

And I can give plenty of reasons. Maybe the species evolved to have a strong aversion to infighting, but no such protection against fighting outsiders.

How would that work? What evolutionary pressures could possibly lead to such a species? Even we humans can feel empathy for animals from completely different branches of the tree of life, and the odds of a purely predatory species achieving sapience and technological hegemony are fleeting due to the fact that predators are at the top of the food chain where the fewest food resources can be found.

Maybe they do fight among each other, but never enough to wipe each other out, and find an even 'lower' humanity to be a glorious target to kick around and squish.

If they are looking for a challenge, then they are looking in the wrong celestial neighborhood. That sounds like a rather silly proposition.

Guess what. We have weapons capable of wiping out all life on earth today, but we fail to use them. Maybe it's because, while being violent and short-sighted, humanity in general also has a strong survival instinct. Who's to say aliens don't have something similar?

Guess what. We've had them for less than a century. You can't extrapolate from such a minuscule sample size, let alone start proposing absurd "instincts" which we clearly do not have (global warming, anyone?).

They're not going to wipe each other out, but why not squish humanity in the name of alien manifest destiny, or because alien Jesus says bipedal minions of Sol-based Satan must be crushed before their spaceships can travel to the alien garden of eden?

And Alien Muhammad says that all who follow Space Jesus should be put to death: why the absurd assumption that these aliens will all follow one religious doctrine?

Why does it have to be so black and white with you? Either aliens are delightful and advanced beyond the point of all irrationality... or they've wiped themselves out in psychotic fervor, with no in between. Humans have already demonstrated the capability of lying between the two extremes, we destroy environments, engage in genocide and wipe out various species from mindless to near-sentient with reckless abandon, yet we also refrain from using our big bombs to end it all for some strange reason.

Because if we're talking about a species that lies somewhere in the middle as humanity does, then we run into the problem of motivation in the face of impracticality. You throw around the term genocide as if its normal for humans to behave that way. Normal for us to behave like Nazis to each other. As prejudiced as we are, it is nevertheless rare for us to stoop to such extreme evils. The only times we did that behavior was soon condemned utterly by damn near everybody, to the point that "Nazi" is practically a synonym for "evil incarnate".

[Patrick Degan]

<snip>

Jesus, what part of "Not all reasons for expansion and conflict are strictly resource/habitat based" is so hard to understand? You basically said the exact same thing that DA did, which was already pointed out to be useless if the aliens are on a religious genocidal kick, are sufficiently 'alien' to not even consider us living, but rather as a cancerous threat, or have a sufficiently different view of reality that they don't even realize they're wiping us out as they go through.

What part of "not-trivial difficulties involved even in getting to the nearest stellar neighbour" is so hard to understand? Or do you actually imagine that ideology is superior to physics?

[adam_grif]

Seconding fears of Berzerkers.