Massive Gulf Of Mexico Oil Spill

[FSTargetDrone]

Remarkable that so many were saved, frankly, given the conditions, the fire and such.

Good find.

[DarkSilver]

For the record, EVERY SINGLE OIL WELL has Blowout Preventers (BOPs) on the stacks. It is a single piece of equipment no rig can even think about breaking surface without. Anyone who claimed DWH had no BOP, is a fucking moron. Those valves are mandated by the law of the land as vital to the Drilling Rig's standard operations.

Then again, being in the oil field, I probably am mistaken in thinking that would be a bit of common knowledge.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The output of the damaged pipe is accelerating. It could be as much as 25 kbpd now. That's enough to cover the globe's oceans with a thin film of oil in a decade, and the deep sea nature of this field means it had to have sizeable quantities of crude to be worth the expense. BP pegs it at around 100 megabarrels, with the flow potentially going past 100 kbpd if a larger opening is blown through (we've seen two five-fold increases since the original leak started).

It gets worse. The pipe that is, supposedly, still intact, is being worn away by intense pressure and heat coupled with what is essentially sandblasting. If the integrity of the BOP was compromised by hitting such a high pressure part of the well being drilled and it blew the safeties before the shears could lock it down, then there's nothing to really say the pipe and cap itself will be uncompromised. BP's efforts now rely on covering the pipe outlet, but if that blows out and the rest of the piping corrodes, as it seems to be doing, then the whole thing is uncontainable. You could try and drill a relief well, but that will be equally tricky and could lead to the same problem that sank the bleeding edge Deepwater Horizon. I've spoken with some oil engineers elsewhere, and the idea of using a tanker to capture the outflow once a well or dome over the existing pipe was made, was an idea, but given the risk of explosive forces destroying the tanker, it'd be a total clusterfuck costing more lives.

We simply do not have the technology to contain this if the rest of the pipeline blows out. It will then be entirely up to geology to determine how this pans out and whether it stops flowing or continues for even a fraction of the reservoir's volume.

By the way, there was talk of using a tac. nuke to stop this. But delivery, and subsequent effects on surrounding infrastructure and fields are huge unknowns.

[Phantasee]

Has anything like this ever happened naturally? Like if there was seismic activity that opens up a way for a pocket under pressure to get out. Even if it wasn't on the same scale, I'd think someone somewhere would have noticed oil on the sea, or maybe there could be some kind of evidence for it happening in prehistoric (this could be different from place to place) times.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Not naturally, far as I know, but there have been cases of undersea wells blowing out and needing to be capped after gushing uncontrollably for a while. Ixtoc 1 had such an incident happen in summer of '79. It was a far less tricky drilling project than the deep GOM wells being tried today like Thunder Horse, but it still took nearly a year to plug, outflowing some 10-30 kbpd in that time.

[FSTargetDrone]

I've spoken with some oil engineers elsewhere, and the idea of using a tanker to capture the outflow once a well or dome over the existing pipe was made, was an idea, but given the risk of explosive forces destroying the tanker, it'd be a total clusterfuck costing more lives.

Well, this is exactly what is planned for the next week.

FOX News:

Updated May 03, 2010

How the Subsea Oil Recovery System Works

FOXNews.com

In its efforts to minimize the widening oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, BP will deploy a large structure in the next 6 to 8 days to capture leaking oil. Here's how it works.



Called the Subsea Oil Recovery System, the 125-ton structure is designed to be placed over the largest source of oil leaking 5,000 feet beneath the Gulf of Mexico. The system collects the leaking oil and pumps it through a funnel and pipe to a tanker at the surface, which stores it and ships the oil to shore.

The structure is a 40-foot tall concrete chimney that conveys leaking oil to a ship on the surface, the Deepwater Enterprise. Once there, oil is separated from water and stored until the ship can return to shore, where it is offloaded and shipped to an on-shore terminal.

The ship is capable of storing 139,000 barrels of oil, processing it at a rate of 15,000 barrels per day. BP hopes it will be able to collect as much as 85 percent of the oil leaking from the sea floor.

Working in conjunction with contractor Wild Well Controls, BP is building the system in Louisiana based on similar designs used during the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Containment systems used following the hurricane were in shallow water, however; to deal with the muddy conditions at the bottom of the sea, BP is adding mud flaps to the base of the structure, that should more thoroughly seal off the leak.

Last week officials drastically increased their estimate of the size of the spill, from 1,000 to 5,000 barrels a day. The Department of Homeland Security then declared the spill an incident of "national significance" on Thursday, freeing up resources to tackle the spreading problem.

BP has vowed to pay all necessary clean up costs for the massive oil leak, and the company also plans to drill a relief well near the original source in order to relieve pressure -- something Interior Secretary Ken Salazar called the "ultimate solution" to the oil spill. But finalizing that well could take up to three months.

It should be noted that this has never been tried before in such a deep location.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The way I heard they were originally going to do it was that they'd basically load that oil directly on to the tanker, ignoring that a potential explosive risk could happen with such a flow of crude and NG/NGLs. This may be subtly different, but no less risky an operation to pull off. You're dropping a structure over a tiny target some 5000' down with all the problematic weather above, and currents below. And this assumes the leak won't go for a path of least resistance, and simply bore through the rock around the temporary cap. If the pipeline corrodes and blows before this is lowered, then there's no way to really contain it without an experimental dome system, which is basically a fantasy until someone can make one and show it working.

The problem likely started down to issues with technology down there anyway. The piping had to be such that it wasn't easily damaged by the pressure and heat down there, which meant the shears weren't able to sever and clamp the riser properly. The company that made the system, Cameron, seemingly only went by computer simulations, not actual testing, as is done in some other operations (I believe PEMEX test these things quite thoroughly for deep sea drilling projects).

If they can stab (place a bung in) the pipe and put this cover over it, then we may have an ability to stop the flow into the sea and also recoup any oil flowing out at the same time. But nothing is easy with these things. It's the petrochemical industry equivalent of the Apollo programme.

[FSTargetDrone]

It will be very interesting to see if they can pull it off, no doubt about it.

Incidentally, BP has commented, saying it will pay for the cleanup, but that this incident "wasn't out accident":

BP: Oil rig leak 'wasn't our accident'

CEO to NBC: We'll clean it up, but rig was run by Transocean

NBC News and news services
updated 1 hour, 24 minutes ago

NEW ORLEANS - Facing an unprecedented Gulf Coast environmental disaster, not to mention lawsuits, oil giant BP told NBC on Monday that while it was taking responsibility for cleaning up the giant undersea leak, the accident that triggered the disaster was not its fault.

"It wasn't our accident, but we are absolutely responsible for the oil, for cleaning it up, and that's what we intend to do," BP Group CEO Tony Hayward told NBC's "TODAY" show.

The rig that exploded on April 20 and then sank was run by another company, Transocean, he reminded viewers. That rig, he said, "was run by their people, their processes."

Hayward added that the failure of the rig's "blow-out preventer" — a device that should have shut off the well when the rig exploded and sank — was "unprecedented in our industry."

"What has failed here is the ultimate safety device on a drilling rig," he said. "There are many barriers of protection that you have to go to before you get to this. It isn't designed to not fail."

Guy Cantwell, a Transocean spokesman, responded by reading a statement without elaborating. "We will await all the facts before drawing conclusions and we will not speculate," he said.

A federal board investigating what caused the accident plans to hold its first public hearing in about two weeks, officials said Monday.

BP was trying to cap the smallest of three leaks with underwater robotic vehicles in the hope it will make it easier to place a single oil-siphoning container over the wreck.

One of the robots cut the damaged end off a pipe at the smallest leak Sunday and officials were hoping to cap it with a sleeve and valve, Coast Guard spokesman Brandon Blackwell said Monday. He did not know how much oil was coming from that leak.

"We see this as an opportunity to simplify the seafloor mission a little bit, so we're working this aggressively," BP spokesman Steve Rinehart said.

The first container, or dome, is seven to eight days from being "in the field," Hayward said. Such a procedure has been used in some well blowouts but never at the mile-deep waters of this disaster.

That is just a temporary fix until a relief well can be drilled to plug the leaks, and that could take two to three months, Hayward said.

'Not a spill, it's a flow'

Crews continued to lay boom in what increasingly feels like a futile effort to slow down the spill, though choppy seas have made that difficult and rendered much of the oil-corraling gear useless.

"I've been in Pensacola and I am very, very concerned about this filth in the Gulf of Mexico," Florida Gov. Charlie Crist said Sunday night. "It's not a spill, it's a flow. Envision sort of an underground volcano of oil and it keeps spewing over 200,000 gallons every single day, if not more."

That estimate could climb to several million gallons a day in the event of a total wellhead failure — a much greater breach than exists now.

Fishermen from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Florida Panhandle got the news Sunday that more than 6,800 square miles of federal fishing areas were closed, fracturing their livelihood for at least 10 days and likely more just as the prime spring season was kicking in.

The slick also was precariously close to a key shipping lane that feeds goods and materials to the interior of the U.S. by the Mississippi River.

Ships carrying food, oil, rubber and much more come through the Southwest Pass to enter the vital waterway.

Shipment delays — either because oil-splattered ships need to be cleaned off at sea before docking or because water lanes are shut down for a time — would raise the cost of transporting those goods.

"We saw that during Hurricane Katrina for a period of time — we saw some prices go up for food and other goods because they couldn't move some fruit down the shipping channels and it got spoiled," PFGBest analyst Phil Flynn said.

About the only good news Monday was that the slick was in a "holding pattern" and not moving closer to shore for now, Adm. Thad Allen, the Coast Guard commandant, told msnbc.

Figuring claims, cleanup payments

U.S. officials, meanwhile, are pressing BP to clarify how the company will cover costs relating to the Gulf oil spill.

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano says reimbursement for individuals and state and federal government will be on the agenda when she and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar meet with Hayward and other BP executives in Washington later Monday.

She told ABC's "Good Morning America" that the Obama administration wants to make sure there is a clear claims process set up for proper reimbursement. She also wants BP to stop requiring those volunteering with the cleanup to sign waivers limiting the company's liability.

Meanwhile, in a fact sheet posted to the company's website on Monday, BP said it "will pay all necessary and appropriate clean-up cost" as well as "legitimate and objectively verifiable" claims for property damage, personal injury, and commercial losses. It pledged that claims will be "promptly investigated" and that resolved claims would be paid promptly.

Another potential hazard was a political one that depends on how the public judges the Obama administration's response. In 2005, President George W. Bush stumbled in dealing with Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf and left the impression of a president distant from immense suffering. His presidency never recovered.

Administration officials said they were on top of the accident from the first day. A declaration of national significance — opening the way for greater government involvement — came nine days later, when a new leak was discovered and it was determined that far more oil was leaking from the site than initially estimated.

Obama's visit to the region

On Sunday, President Barack Obama traveled to southeastern Louisiana to reassure fishermen and others on the Gulf Coast that the government is doing all it can as masses of oil from a pipeline rupture endanger fisheries, oyster beds and beaches.

"Your government will do whatever it takes for as long as it takes to stop this crisis," Obama said. "We're dealing with a massive and potentially unprecedented environmental disaster."

Obama took a brief helicopter tour to view the kinds of marshlands and estuaries threatened by the spill. High winds prevented him from flying over the 30-mile spill itself.

The leaking oil imperils not only the environment but an abundant fishing industry, which Obama called "the heartbeat of the region's economic life." In front of a cabin and recreational vehicle park was a plywood sign pleading, "Obama Send Help!!!!"

"We're going to do everything in our power to protect our natural resources, compensate those who have been harmed, rebuild what has been damaged and help this region persevere like it has done so many times before," Obama said.

It appeared little could be done in the short term to stem the oil flow, which was also drifting toward the beaches of neighboring Mississippi and farther east along the Florida Panhandle. Obama said the slick was 9 miles off the southeastern Louisiana coast.

Politics of the disaster

An investigation is under way into the cause of the April 20 well explosion and, depending on its outcome, questions may be raised about whether federal regulation of offshore rigs operating in extremely deep waters is sufficient and whether the government is requiring the best available technology to shut off such wells in event of a blowout.

Administration officials have been at pains to explain that Obama's late March decision to expand offshore oil exploration could be altered as a result of the spill and that stricter safety rules would doubtless be written into leases.

In reality, oil companies and the government lack the technology to prevent the damage from a well gushing oil, killing wildlife and tainting a delicate ecosystem.

Even if the oil stays mostly offshore, the consequences could be dire for sea turtles, dolphins and other deepwater marine life — and microscopic plankton and tiny creatures that are a staple of larger animals' diets.

Moby Solangi, director of the Institute for Marine Mammal Studies in Gulfport, Miss., said at least 20 dead sea turtles were found on the state's beaches. He said it's too soon to say whether oil contamination killed them but that it is unusual to have them turning up across such a wide stretch of coast, nearly 30 miles.

Some experts also have said oil could get into the Gulf Stream and flow to the beaches of Florida — and potentially whip around the state's southern tip and up the Eastern Seaboard. Tourist-magnet beaches and countless wildlife could be ruined.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The BP CEO is going to be the most hated man in the south-east soon, if not already. They tried to pin this on the drilling crews without any real evidence from an investigation (we may never know the true reason for this accident) and before the memorials had even been planned.

We can't say for sure what did go wrong and with whom. There are indications that the BOP activated, communicated this to the rig, but volume didn't drop as would be expected, so possibly something happened at that point relating to the cement Halliburton supplied, or the piping from Cameron or maybe human error.

If this carries on and the flow reaches the worst case, then you could get tar balls winding up in the Med. I don't even know if BP can actually pay for this if it does go that route, not without selling off assets. Capping it successfully within a month would set them back (add in the cost of the rig itself and lost production).

[ShadowDragon8685]

Okay, this is starting to sound truely terrifying now.

Exactly what sort of pressures are involved in this? I mean, I knew they were high, but when someone starts talking about boring through rock, then I get really worried. How could this thing bore through rock if it's been successfully contained by said rock for millions of years? Is it just a case of "once a ball starts rolling?"

I was wondering why they didn't just have the Navy push a bomb down into the pipe and collapse the son of a bitch, but it sounds like any attempt to do that would just result in a larger pipe. What's the liklihood of a tac nuke being used? Could that just make it worse?


I guess... What are the chances that this becomes a disaster of epic proportions? Like, don't-go-swimming-anywhere-in-the-world epic?


I mean, sheesh. I never liked drilling before as I reckoned it was futile, but if this is what happens when oil drilling goes Very Very Wrong...

[Admiral Valdemar]

Okay, this is starting to sound truely terrifying now.

Exactly what sort of pressures are involved in this? I mean, I knew they were high, but when someone starts talking about boring through rock, then I get really worried. How could this thing bore through rock if it's been successfully contained by said rock for millions of years? Is it just a case of "once a ball starts rolling?"

The exploratory well has compromised that rock. Now that there's a hole there, even only several inches wide, it allows the contents to blast out with ease. It's now at such a state that the pressure of sand being blown out is eroding the pipe. It's only a matter of time before that leads to a bigger output. I forget the exact pressures, but it's over 10,000 PSI.

I was wondering why they didn't just have the Navy push a bomb down into the pipe and collapse the son of a bitch, but it sounds like any attempt to do that would just result in a larger pipe. What's the liklihood of a tac nuke being used? Could that just make it worse?

Even getting a bomb there is tricky, and what's to say it will collapse the vent? It may open it up. Congrats, you've now got a 100 kbpd vent that will by producing an Exxon Valdez every 2.5 days. For months.

I guess... What are the chances that this becomes a disaster of epic proportions? Like, don't-go-swimming-anywhere-in-the-world epic?


I mean, sheesh. I never liked drilling before as I reckoned it was futile, but if this is what happens when oil drilling goes Very Very Wrong...

That all depends on variables. I don't see this fucking over all the world's seas, but the northern hemisphere can certainly be hit hard if worst comes to worst.

[ShadowDragon8685]

The exploratory well has compromised that rock. Now that there's a hole there, even only several inches wide, it allows the contents to blast out with ease. It's now at such a state that the pressure of sand being blown out is eroding the pipe. It's only a matter of time before that leads to a bigger output. I forget the exact pressures, but it's over 10,000 PSI.

So it is a "once the ball gets rolling" scenario. And having looked for some comparisons briefly... Holy hell.

Do we even have machinery strong enough to push back against a force like that? It seems like there's literally no way to like, cap this thing and force sealant (assuming we even have a sealant sufficient to the task) into the pipe.

Even getting a bomb there is tricky, and what's to say it will collapse the vent? It may open it up. Congrats, you've now got a 100 kbpd vent that will by producing an Exxon Valdez every 2.5 days. For months.

Hence, 'worse'.

I guess it's a pick your poison: fuck us now, or fuck us later?

What are the chances that it would go horribly awry versus the chances it might actually help? Is there no way to tell before you hit the trigger?

That all depends on variables. I don't see this fucking over all the world's seas, but the northern hemisphere can certainly be hit hard if worst comes to worst.

So, only half the world gets wrecked... Heh. Geeze, this is a monumental fuck-up. "Drill, baby, drill" indeed.

[Admiral Valdemar]

So it is a "once the ball gets rolling" scenario. And having looked for some comparisons briefly... Holy hell.

Do we even have machinery strong enough to push back against a force like that? It seems like there's literally no way to like, cap this thing and force sealant (assuming we even have a sealant sufficient to the task) into the pipe.

Of course. The well was formed with the intention that you can seal it in the event of a blow-out. That this happened means something failed in that machinery or its implementation. The tricky thing is getting to plug this leak now that it is rogue. The integrity of the packer channel cemented in the rock may be such that it won't hold if it is capped directly, hence the need to put a casing over the whole pipe and siphon off oil leaking into the volume the casing covers before the pressure makes the oil drill out from under it.

No divers can work at that depth, which leaves ROVs which, as we can see from the failed attempt to shut off the BOP manually, are less than ideal. This leak may as well be on the Moon in terms of difficulty to deal with.

Hence, 'worse'.

I guess it's a pick your poison: fuck us now, or fuck us later?

What are the chances that it would go horribly awry versus the chances it might actually help? Is there no way to tell before you hit the trigger?

Can't say, not worth commenting. Though BP have said themselves that the use of the above procedure of covering the pipe may fail and then the final measure to take would be the relief wells, of which several are being prepped by a drill ship out in the GOM now, so if one fails they don't need to restart from scratch.

So, only half the world gets wrecked... Heh. Geeze, this is a monumental fuck-up. "Drill, baby, drill" indeed.

It's killed off-shore drilling in Obama's energy plan for the time being at least. And a lot of new oil around the world is going to come from these prospects.

We're missing other factors being affected here too, such as the slick affecting delivery to NOLA via cargo ships e.g. crude deliveries may not reach the US' Cushing depot on time, and finished products like gasoline have been drawn down a fair bit already, at a time when they should be going up to help cushion against the summer driving season. Then there are the fumes wafting inland and the carcinogenicity of the water and so on. Even if the light oil is decomposed quickly (this is a medium grade oil, from what I have heard, so not useless like tar, but not light sweet like Saudi black gold either), a lot of this gunk will still spread quite far given the pipe is under the surface and using deep sea currents to spread. Were this a break above surface on the rig itself, it'd be far easier to contain.

[FSTargetDrone]

Incidentally, BP has commented, saying it will pay for the cleanup, but that this incident "wasn't out accident":

Whoops. I of course meant to write that BP said it "wasn't our accident."

Anyway, talking about comparisons to the Valdez incident and the economic fallout:

May 3, 2010
BP's Oil Spill Bill Could Dwarf Exxon's Valdez Tab
By ANNE C. MULKERN of Greenwire

Oil behemoth BP PLC faces billions of dollars in costs connected to its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, analysts and legal experts predict.

The question now is just how big and fast that bill will grow.

With the possibility that it could take three months to stop the Deepwater Horizon spill, payments are likely to start at $2 billion and could reach more than $8 billion, experts said, while cautioning that it is early to make accurate estimates. Cleanup and damages, they said, are just part of the pain connected to this disaster.

BP also could take a hit to future earnings if it needs to slow other exploration and drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, where it has substantial acreage rights, analysts said. In the wake of the disaster, the company's stock price already has tumbled about 13 percent since the April 20 spill, shaving off $20 billion in market value.

And images of blackened water flowing toward Louisiana have soiled the reputation of the company that previously relabeled itself "beyond petroleum," analysts said. The disaster already appears poised to pass the scope of the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

"BP has worked very diligently over the past decade to build a brand as a responsible, socially conscious company," said Pavel Molchanov, analyst with Raymond James. "Although management's response to this disaster has been impressively rapid and transparent, there is no disputing that BP's reputation -- fairly or unfairly -- has been damaged, just as Exxon's reputation was damaged by Valdez in 1989."

There were no employee fatalities involved in the Exxon Valdez incident, while 11 people died in the Deepwater Horizon incident. Those deaths follow 15 fatalities in an explosion at BP's Texas City Refinery in 2005.

"In the damage to their reputation ... [the cost] is quite substantial," said Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates LLC consultants in Houston. "It's just another in a series of events that have associated fatalities with the BP name since 2005."

Analysts who put the cost of the Deepwater Horizon spill at anywhere from $2 billion to $8 billion also cautioned that the numbers could change quickly.

"Those estimates can either skyrocket or come down depending on when the flow of oil is stopped," Lipow said.

Molchanov predicted, "It's going to be in the billions. ... How many billions? The jury's still out."

BP earned $17 billion in net income last year and is projected to earn $23 billion in 2010, according to Raymond James.

"BP certainly is more than capable of covering all of the expenses that they'll be liable for," Molchanov said.

BP has said that it is spending $6 million to $7 million per day to shut off the flow and limit damage. It has offered repeated assurances that it takes responsibility for the spill. The company set up the toll-free phone number 1-800-440-0858 to take damage claims.

"We're going to continue to throw all of our resources at it until the flow of oil has been stopped and we've minimized the environmental impact," said John Curry, BP's director of external affairs. "We're spending a significant amount of money, but that's not the most important part for us right now. The most important part is to do what we can to address this issue."

President Obama also has said that BP will pay for the costs. That is expected to include reimbursing federal and local governments for work they put into stopping the spill.

The company is continuing several approaches to stop the leak, including chemical sprays, covering the leak with a type of dome and drilling another well to relieve the pressure. But drilling that second well will take at least 90 days. If the leak continues to discharge 5,000 barrels of oil a day, within about 50 days it will eclipse Exxon Valdez in terms of oil spilled. In the Exxon case, 250,000 barrels (or 10.8 million gallons) of oil spilled.

"This is shaping up to be worse than the Exxon Valdez accident" in terms of oil spilled and cost for damages, said Fadel Gheit, an Oppenheimer & Co LLC managing director and senior analyst in the oil and gas sector.

That is what led many analysts to use the Exxon Valdez as the barometer for what BP is likely to pay. Exxon paid more than $3.8 billion in cleanup and damage costs, plus about $500 million in punitive damages.

"We know that the price tag is going to be higher today, everything else being equal," simply because of inflation, said Molchanov with Raymond James. "How much higher? It's way, way too early to judge right now."

The next Valdez?

Because the Gulf of Mexico is far more open than the area where the Exxon Valdez disgorged oil, it is easier to get crews and equipment in to try and stop the spill and erect booms to protect the shore, Molchanov said.

"The not-so-good news is a lot more people live around the Gulf" than in Prince William Sound, Alaska, Molchanov said, meaning that "the potential economic damage is probably going to be greater."

BP faces a different environment than did Exxon, however.

The aftermath of the Exxon Valdez case shifted the legal landscape around oil spills. In the Valdez case, the law that applied said that only those who had been physically touched by the oil could collect damages, said Dave Oesting, lead counsel for plaintiffs in that case and an attorney at Davis Wright Tremaine in Anchorage. Congress in 1990 passed the Oil Pollution Act, which lifted that restriction. Now those who believe they have related economic damages can file claims.

That could mean a wide range of businesses and people will seek compensation in the Deepwater Horizon spill, attorneys said. Already 26 lawsuits have been filed, the Associated Press reported. Louisiana fishermen and shrimpers are seeking (pdf) millions of dollars in damages for the ongoing oil spill, which they say could destroy their livelihoods. One lawsuit names two commercial shrimpers as the plaintiffs, and another comes from the captain of a charter boat that fishes near rigs off the Gulf Coast.

The shrimpers case, which seeks class-action status, also lists 10 other groups of lawyers representing plaintiffs, including New York-based environmental advocate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. That firm had already received calls Friday from other businesses that foresee financial harm, including hotels and scuba diving businesses, commercial fisheries and municipalities, said Kevin Madonna, a partner at the firm Kennedy & Madonna LLP.

The group of plaintiffs eventually "could be very, very large," Madonna said.

Given that the geographic area of the spill is large and that there are heavily populated areas nearby, Madonna said, "I don't see how the damages could be anything less than the Valdez damages."

The Oil Pollution Act has not been applied in a spill of this scope and remains untested in some areas, Madonna said, adding that this case "is going to be the mother of all tests."

In addition to cleanup costs, payments that BP will have to make likely will include damage to natural resources, including animals that are killed because of the oil, and damage to property and property values on the beaches where oil hits, attorneys and analysts said.

There is the potential for even more widespread economic damage if the oil spill disrupts traffic on the Mississippi River for an extended period, Lipnow said. Agricultural goods from the Midwest are exported out of the Port of New Orleans, he said.

"If you had the Mississippi River closing for weeks, you would start seeing impacts," Lipnow said.

The Exxon Valdez case took 21 years to resolve and ended up at the U.S. Supreme Court. Cases connected to BP could move faster because of the Oil Pollution Act, which clarifies an oil company's liability, Oesting said.

"It should be a much more expeditious process," Oesting said.

Punitive damages cannot be collected if a suit is filed under that act, attorneys said. But suits seeking punitive damages could be filed outside that act, Madonna said.

Drilling caution

BP and other oil companies will likely need to re-examine their technology and make sure they have proper precautions to prevent future incidents, Lipow said.

"Moving forward for exploration and production is certainly going to be at a slower pace and certainly at a higher cost for them," Lipnow said.

The political environment also is likely to shift. Already, President Obama has tabled for a month his plan to expand offshore drilling.

"I continue to believe that domestic oil production is an important part of our overall strategy for energy security," Obama said in comments at the White House on Friday. "But I've always said it must be done responsibly, for the safety of our workers and our environment."

That could have an impact on BP and other oil companies, Gheit said.

"The 'drill, baby, drill' crowd, I think they're going to get a sobering reminder that there's no free lunch," Gheit said. "We just cannot do things without proper planning."

Others said they expected BP and other oil companies would move forward without any significant longer-term problems.

"Thousands of offshore wells have been drilled in the Gulf without anything of this sort happening," Molchanov said. "It's truly a once-in-a-decade type of event, maybe even more rare than that.

"Similarly, BP will continue to refine and market refined products in the U.S.," Molchanov said. "I don't believe there will be any widespread 'boycott,' though it's possible that some individual consumers may avoid its fuel stations."

[Broomstick]

The BP CEO is going to be the most hated man in the south-east soon, if not already. They tried to pin this on the drilling crews without any real evidence from an investigation (we may never know the true reason for this accident) and before the memorials had even been planned.

It's the company refusing to admit any liability whatsoever because this will wind up in the US court system where any public admission of guilt can and will be used against them.

It's also easy to blame the dead, even if it is despicable.

I'm waiting for when they start comparing this to Chernobyl instead of Valdez.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The oil is likely flowing at rates far higher than officially stated according to observational analysis of the slick affecting optical properties of the ocean. The sheen from the oil on the surface is far more pronounced than the 1 micron thick rainbow effect which would tally with the lower flow rates originally discussed (<5 kbpd). It's in the tens of microns and covering a sizeable (hundreds of square kilometres) area. Keep in mind, this is an unprecedented event. We have never lost a full wellhead before at sea, hence the fears of this being uncontrollable (indeed, the pressure of the well may not equalise over time due to the nature of this kind of operation if it was water fed. Meaning the whole contents of the field may deplete into the ocean).

Florida will be getting its first hints of the oil soon enough. It's only a matter of days before it hits the currents taking it into the Atlantic and across to Europe given the current rate of expansion.

BP has also been trying to tarnish the potential juror pool around the Gulf coast, namely Alabama.

It boggles my mind that this isn't getting more attention when it can quite easily become one of the worst natural disasters man has ever produced.

[Broomstick]

So you're saying it's the Petro-Chernobyl?

On a much more mundane note... gas prices have already jumped in my area. I expect it to get worse.

[Admiral Valdemar]

It has the potential to make Chernobyl look like a stinky breeze. The oceans are the most valuable asset to our biosphere. If you want to see an interesting side-effect of this, the oil coating on the waves around the gulf is increasing the thermal retention of the water in that area due to it limiting evaporative cooling forming clouds. We're a month out from a hurricane season expected to rival that of 2005 thanks to ENSO. The slick is already affecting shipping to the gulf coast of the US, which relies on a lot of imports of all products, and crude, coming in via the routes being affected by the slick area.

They better hope they can cap this while they still can. There is nothing stopping this from continuing to pump out for months, even years, if the riser is lost. Like I say, the 100 kbpd figure cannot be ruled out given the dynamics of this situation.

[Kuroji]

...dear god, a hurricane, even a small one, would bring so much of this oil ashore. Honestly it may be better for the REST of the ocean if this happens, assuming they can cap that well somehow, but that would utterly destroy most of coastal Louisiana's ecosystem.

I think I'm going to be sick.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Capping a well like this in calm weather is like putting a man on the Moon. It's impossible if hurricane season gets in full flow. That's why BP is flat out stating that there are reservations over whether they can contain this problem soon. It was a week, then a month, now maybe three months. It could be a year easily (as the aforementioned Ixtoc disaster took).

[Illuminatus Primus]

Judging by what happened with Exxon Valdez, I doubt BP will actually be forced to pay for the real costs of doing business that they get to keep almost all the profits of. The rest will be imposed on the public, as usual.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Judging by what happened with Exxon Valdez, I doubt BP will actually be forced to pay for the real costs of doing business that they get to keep almost all the profits of. The rest will be imposed on the public, as usual.

Fuckin' a. This was never going to be BP's bill, but it was nice of them to come out and say they were doing their duty to foot the bill, despite it being all Transocean's fault (we'll ignore that it's FEDERAL LAW that they take liability).

Gov. Schwarzenegger has come out saying that he will no longer support off-shore drilling around California. The board is set, the pieces are moving. This is the end of Obama's appeasement of the "Drill, baby, drill" fucktards.

[FSTargetDrone]

Another, more-detailed article about the "dome" containment device:

BP to try unprecedented engineering feat to stop oil spill
From Brian Todd, CNN
May 3, 2010 8:50 p.m. EDT

Port Fourchon, Louisiana (CNN) -- It sounds like a Hollywood movie. An impending disaster -- think the disabled spacecraft in "Apollo 13" or the asteroid hurtling toward Earth in "Armageddon" -- prompts a daring intervention by engineers to save the day.

This time, the threat is real -- oil gushing from a broken well on the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico that could destroy livelihoods and irreplaceable coastal wetlands.

Equally real is the attempted engineering marvel -- a four-story metal container that will be lowered onto the leaking pipe to try to suck in the flowing oil.

Officials of BP, the oil giant that owns the leaking well, said Monday they plan to try the unprecedented effort this week.

If successful, they say, the "pollution containment chamber" could reduce the underwater gusher by more than 80 percent and provide the first success in industry and government efforts to control the spill that began April 20 with an explosion and fire on an offshore rig.

"Everyone's committed to getting this stopped so we can just focus on a cleanup," said Doug Suttles, the BP chief operating officer.

The challenges are vast and varied, reflecting the scope of the problem.

The gushing well is 5,000 feet under water at the bottom of the ocean, where the immense pressure makes it impossible for humans to work.

So far, unmanned submarines called "remote operation vehicles" have been trying unsuccessfully to fix a defective "blowout preventer" -- the failsafe gadget that should have prevented the leak in the first place.

Now BP has started drilling a relief well that eventually could allow them to close off the broken well. However, that would take at least two months to work, Suttles said.

That leaves the pollution containment chamber, a 100-ton, 40-foot-tall rust brown device that workers were still putting together Monday in the Port Fourchon, Louisiana, workyard, where welders' torches showered sparks as gulls flew overhead.

It is the biggest such chamber ever constructed, BP officials say.

Their plan is to lower the chamber to the ocean floor where the biggest of three leaks in the well's underwater piping occurs. It would straddle the pipe and lock itself into the seabed, so that the leaking oil goes into the chamber itself.

Then the question becomes how to pipe it up to a giant tanker on the surface, 5,000 feet up. It is by far the deepest attempted use ever of such a containment chamber, according to BP officials.

"This has been done in shallow water; it's never been done in deep water before," Suttles said.

The engineers will rely in part on the laws of physics to their advantage, Suttles said. Because water pressure is greater than oil pressure, it should help push the oil to the surface, he said.

If all goes well, the containment chamber could be in place and hopefully pumping up much of the spilling oil by the end of the week, Suttles said.

BP workers also are building a smaller containment chamber for another leak in the pipe, he said, and hope to close a third leak with a shutoff valve as soon as Tuesday.

So far, an estimated 2.6 million gallons of oil, roughly 60,000 barrels, has spilled into the Gulf of Mexico, forming a slick the size of the state of Delaware.

The oil continues to gush at a rate of at least 5,000 barrels a day, authorities estimate, and the growing slick could come ashore at any time to destroy sensitive wetlands that are vital for the huge local fishing industry and other resources.

CNN's Tom Cohen contributed to this story.

[Broomstick]

Judging by what happened with Exxon Valdez, I doubt BP will actually be forced to pay for the real costs of doing business that they get to keep almost all the profits of. The rest will be imposed on the public, as usual.

They changed the law after the Valdez. BP is much more exposed to liability than Exxon was.

Actually, if every who can line up for compensation does so it may drive BP out of business.

[Illuminatus Primus]

Judging by what happened with Exxon Valdez, I doubt BP will actually be forced to pay for the real costs of doing business that they get to keep almost all the profits of. The rest will be imposed on the public, as usual.

They changed the law after the Valdez. BP is much more exposed to liability than Exxon was.

Actually, if every who can line up for compensation does so it may drive BP out of business.

I'll believe it when I see it.