Daily Telegraph wrote:General Election 2010: unionist deal could make David Cameron prime minister
David Cameron could be installed as prime minister, even if he fails to win the general election outright, under a deal with unionist parties, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
Northern Ireland MPs have indicated that they will formally back the Conservative leader if he protects the region from this year’s public spending cuts. The move would cost up to £200million.
The deal, which Mr Cameron will be under presuure to accept, would give his party another nine or 10 parliamentary seats.
Current opinion polls suggest this would be enough for him to form a majority government.
The Daily Telegraph understands that the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is willing to enter into a formal coalition with the Tories should Mr Cameron fail to win an overall majority.
Mr Cameron became the first of the main party leaders to visit Northern Ireland during the election campaign on Tuesday.
He indicated he wished to give Northern Ireland politicians ministerial positions — and see the province play a key role in the “mainstream politics” of the entire country.
The Tory leader was due to campaign throughout the night while making his way from Scotland to Bristol, meeting fishermen in Grimsby and other night-shift workers across the country.
The Conservatives believe they now have “momentum” although they may fail narrowly to win an outright majority.
Mr Cameron is believed to be prepared to rule with a minority government rather than negotiate with the Liberal Democrats.
Kenneth Clarke became the first shadow minister to talk openly about a possible deal.
“I think there’s a still a slim chance we can get an overall majority, which I would very much like to see,” the former chancellor said.
“It is very difficult to read because the electoral geography is quite local and it is a complicated breakdown of voting which is taking place. But my hunch is we’re still in with a chance of getting a parliamentary majority.
“In the end you can always do a deal with an Ulsterman, but it’s not the way to run a modern, sophisticated society.”
During a frenetic day of campaigning, Labour appeared divided over whether to advise the public to vote tactically to keep the Tories out of Downing Street.
Three Labour ministers including Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary, indicated that they advocated Labour supporters voting Liberal Democrat in constituencies where there was no real prospect of Labour winning.
The strategy, described as “desperate” by the other parties, appears to have split Cabinet ministers, with Alistair Darling and others saying that all voters should back Labour.
The latest opinion poll conducted by Comres for ITV News and The Independent had the Conservatives on 37 per cent, Labour on 29 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 26 per cent.
The figures were unchanged from Monday night.
The latest YouGov/Sun opinion poll has the Conservatives on 35 per cent, Labour increasing to 30 per cent and the Liberal Democrats dropping to 24 per cent.
If replicated in the general election, Labour would just be the biggest party in Parliament. The intervention of the Northern Ireland politicians could prove decisive to Mr Cameron’s hopes of securing victory.
The Conservative leader agreed an alliance with the Ulster Unionists in 2008.
However, the UUP are now struggling to retain their only parliamentary seat, according to an opinion poll.
In contrast, the DUP, led by Peter Robinson, is set to win at least nine seats.
The Daily Telegraph can disclose that the DUP has drawn up a “shopping list” of demands in return for its backing of Mr Cameron.
The wish-list is likely to be more extensive depending on how much Mr Cameron needs to rely on their support. If the Conservatives win anything between 280 and 330 seats, the DUP believes it will have a very strong negotiating hand.
Top of the list is a demand that Mr Cameron holds back on the £100million to £200million of cuts which — under the terms of the Barnett formula used to calculate expenditure in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland — would be Ulster’s share of the £6billion planned by the Tories this year.
At the start of the election campaign, Mr Cameron caused alarm in Northern Ireland by singling the province out as an area that was too dependent on public money.
One DUP insider said: “If the Conservatives failed to win a majority it would put us in a fairly pivotal position. We are naturally more sympathetic to the Tories, but we won’t simply fall into line.
"We will have a shopping list, and we would have issues to resolve. Once the election is out of the way, crude political calculations will come into play. Depending on the strength of our position, there could be a whole series of things we ask for before we sign on the dotted line.”
A Tory insider said: “There will be no problem with signing up the unionists if that’s what it takes to get David into Downing Street. We’re sure we could do a deal.”
Speaking in Northern Ireland, Mr Cameron hinted that he was preparing to cut business taxes in the province.
He added: “This election presents a new opportunity to participate in he mainstream of British politics…mainstream politics in which people in Northern Ireland can participate at all levels of government in the UK — from the council chamber right the way to the Cabinet table itself.”
An opinion poll published by the Belfast Telegraph suggested the DUP was on course to remain the largest party in the Province, holding on to all nine of their current Westminster seats.
To win a majority, the Tories need 326 seats, but victory by a small margin would put Mr Cameron at the mercy of rebellious Conservative backbenchers, meaning he may still seek a coalition with the DUP.
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Bloody night shifts with nothing else to do! On the other hand: Brooker, Mitchell and Carr on C4. Decisions decisions....
