Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

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[R_H]
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by [R_H] »

Unions are idiots, news at eleven, I guess.

Many Greeks Blame Foreigners for Their Crisis
If it is to avoid sliding into the abyss, Greece must implement brutal austerity measures and increase its tax revenues. Yet many Greeks, including the political opposition, are in denial about the economic reality of the current crisis. Many ordinary people believe that foreign influences are to blame for the country's predicament.

Georgios Trangas is one of Greece's best-known journalists. His two-hour morning radio show "In Athens," which is broadcast nationwide by a private radio station, has a cult following. Day after day, the 60-year-old utters his views and discusses virtually every issue that is important to Greeks, often generating controversy in the process. It's something he's been doing for many, many years.

Trangas is a polarizing figure. Earlier this year, he called for a boycott of German products as a response to the media attacks against Greece coming from newspapers and magazines in Berlin, Hamburg and Munich. He also attacked his own government over its austerity program, demanding unity and warning against a "division of society." With his positions, he has attracted an audience and market share for his radio program that is virtually unrivaled in Greece.
"Two journalists from SPIEGEL are waiting for me outside," Trangas says to his listeners as he ends his show. "What should I tell them?" He raises his voice imploringly and, as an answer to his own question, pronounces two slogans: "Hold your heads up high, everybody" and "stay calm."

Tragic Images

The tragic images of last week's violent protests are still fresh in people's minds: firebombed banks and three dead, including a young woman who was four months pregnant. But Trangas doesn't appear particularly glum or moved by the events. He may be a little quieter than usual, but he is just as sure of himself as normal. "We were expecting his," he says, after turning off the microphone, referring to the tragic consequences of the arson attack. "The people are like a volcano."

Trangas is no leftist. He's more inclined towards the right wing of the conservative New Democracy (Nea Dimokratia) party, whose former Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis cooked the deficit figures and fudged statistics that were then bequeathed to his successor, current Prime Minister George Papandreou.

Now the radio personality is sitting at a conference table in the radio station's offices. He's wearing a rugby shirt from a luxury brand and a heavy gold watch on his arm as he discusses corruption in his country. "So much corruption," he moans. Emphasizing the serious moral burden, he theatrically lowers his gaze. "But German companies have profited from this too," he says. "There has been no government contract given to Germany or other EU countries that wasn't highly overpriced because of bribe payments." In other words: It's not just the Greeks who have been the bad guys -- everyone played along and profited from the system. That thinking, at least, makes it easier for people to live with a guilty conscience.

Trangas is an opinion maker, or at least he helps set the tone in his country. As well as his morning radio show, he appears as a commentator on a popular TV news show during prime time in the evening. He also writes newspaper columns and publishes a small Sunday newspaper.

Denying Reality

People like Trangas, of whom there are several in the Greek media scene, will be important in the coming weeks. They will to a large degree help determine whether the Socialists under Papendreou get the popular support they need for their radical program to restructure Greece and avert a national bankruptcy. But they are also capable of driving the people into the streets to resist the painful austerity measures. It's the kind of sentiment that created at least one political victim last week, in the form of Dora Bakoyannis, the popular former mayor of Athens.

Bakoyannis, 56, is the daughter of former Greek Prime Minister Constantine Mitsotakis, whose family, together with the Karamanlis and Papandreou clans, have formed the three dynasties of power in democratic Greece. She last served as foreign minister under Karamanlis. But when it came time for Karamanlis to choose his successor as head of the New Democracy party, the liberal Bakoyannis lost out to the right-leaning candidate Antonis Samaras in what is now being perceived as a shift in the party's direction.
During the vote last Thursday on the second savings package ordered by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, Bakoyannis was the only member of parliament for the opposition New Democracy party to vote in support of the government. Afterwards she was expelled first from the party's parliamentary group and later from the entire party. She is now expected to create a new political party in a bid to shake up the country's traditional party system.

But like the political opposition, radio star Georgios Trangas also seems oblivious to the country's economic reality. In searching for people to blame, Trangas, like many of his fellow Greeks, likes to look beyond the country's borders. "What did European governments really know about Greece's indebtedness, and why did they allow it?" he asks. He says that is a "very important question" for him. It's a question that many ordinary Greeks are also discussing heatedly at the moment.

Part 2: Spinning Myths out of a Deadly Protest

Trangas is great at posing questions, but less great at answering them. "I don't understand at all how a European politician like Chancellor Merkel could allow the IMF, under the influence of the Americans, into the euro zone," he says. "What business does it have being here?"

But when asked what the alternative would have been, he does not provide an answer but merely says: "The fact the IMF is here and is demanding measures under the influence of the Americans is providing fuel for the protests." Anti-American sentiment, something that has long been very popular in Greece, is flourishing anew these days -- and it is now fuelling the arguments of those who oppose the rigorous austerity program.

The secret of one section of Greek society is to blame others or create myths in order to avoid the harsh reality. For example, people -- including serious journalists, politicians and entrepreneurs -- could be heard everywhere claiming it was actually "provocateurs" who were to blame for last week's arson attacks, rather than irresponsible rioters -- despite the fact that the perpetrators had actually been seen. They also accused the government of being involved, saying it had wanted to discredit the protesters.

What Greece Must Change

But that's just the way Greece is in times of crisis. And that is also what makes even well-meaning observers less inclined to believe that Papendreou's government can achieve success through its seriousness and obstinacy.

At the end of the day, cost-cutting will not be enough. The Greek state needs a massive increase in its revenues, and that will also be a test of character for the country. Greater revenues also means greater honesty when it comes to taxation as well as working to reduce the black market for labor, increasing consumption, stopping the flight of capital outside the country, making the country more competitive, reducing corruption, fostering growth and eliminating the shadow economy. How Greeks address these issues will determine whether the country can turn itself around or whether it has already fallen into the abyss.

As part of that, the Greek government needs to make it understandable to people why the austerity measures and structural changes are needed. Media figures who can get that message across to the general public will be needed. There also needs to be credible examples.

And they do exist, suggests the 50-year-old economist Jens Bastian. He works for the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), where he is responsible for research on southeast Europe and Greece. He considers the painful incursions planned by the government to be "socially balanced." For example, he says, the reduction in bonuses given to civil servants, which are equivalent to two extra months of pay each year, is being made dependent on a person's salary.

He says other examples also suggest the government is acting credibly. As an example, he cites the government's action to crack down on thousands of unregistered private swimming pools surrounding the capital city.

In the affluent northern suburbs of Athens, only 324 homeowners have voluntarily registered their swimming pools with the tax authorities. In reality, however, there are known to be 16,974 private swimming pools in Athens' suburbs. But homeowners withhold the information in order to keep the value of their homes artificially low in order to save on property taxes, or, in some cases, because they have been built illegally. The government has now said it will reassess the value of those properties -- and most homeowners can expect hefty additional tax bills.

'Greece Is Far Too Expensive'

Another decisive issue for the success of the restructuring program is whether the Greek government can generate new and lasting growth. But in that regard, too, Bastian, who has lived in Greece for 13 years, is also optimistic. He sees considerable potential in the planned liberalization of the labor market.

In Greece, many professions considered to be self-employed, including architects, lawyers, doctors, pharmacists, taxi drivers and transport companies, are "organized in a cartel-like manner," Bastian says. "They were closed professions." These barriers will now be "removed," he says, something that will create "future opportunities for young people" and greater competition.

"Until now, it has been cheaper to get a container filled with construction materials from China to Athens than it was to transport one from here to Rhodes," explains architect and construction entrepreneur Gerasimos Drimaropoulos.

The country has also "strongly neglected" to secure foreign direct investment since 2004, says Bastian. The economist sees great opportunities in that area. The precondition for that, however, is that Greece finally pay its overdue bills.

On top of all that, the country needs to become cheaper. "Greece is far too expensive," Bastian says. "That is the everyday experience of Greeks, and also of foreign tourists." He says that prices are starting to move now, and he predicts that there will be a clear "downward adjustment of prices" in the coming months.

Those are the kinds of forecasts that radio host Georgios Trangas likes to hear. He believes his country mainly needs two things: time and confidence. "The Greeks are fighters," he says. "As a rule, they are successful in difficult times." Whether that applies in this case too remains to be seen.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

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In short, the Greeks continue with being whiny idiots. Nice.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by KrauserKrauser »

I love where he blames Europe for not knowing how badly in debt Greece was.

I wonder why that is oh Greecian Rush clone, maybe because you lied for decades about your financials?

Nope, must be zee Germans. Idiots.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by Korgeta »

The european austerity plan dosen't seem to be helping shares much.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10117390.stm
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by Korgeta »

The european austerity plan dosen't seem to be helping shares much.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10117390.stm
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by Vendetta »

Thanas wrote:In short, the Greeks continue with being whiny idiots. Nice.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by Admiral Valdemar »

Merkel Says Greece Rescue Package Only Buys Time.

Which was around half a day given the euro trades just after the bailout passed. If the market gets jittery again, then really, what can they do to calm the fears? This was an all or nothing gamble, and it's not paying off, so what do they expect to do other than pray everyone quietly ignores the fact that the problem hasn't been addressed at all?
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

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More in the continuing Greek drama...an interview with Karl Otto Pöhl, former head of the Bundesbank

Spiegel online linky
Bailout Plan Is All About 'Rescuing Banks and Rich Greeks'

The 750 billion euro package the European Union passed last week to prop up the common currency has been heavily criticized in Germany. Former Bundesbank head Karl Otto Pöhl told SPIEGEL that Greece may ultimately have to opt out, and that the foundation of the euro has been fundamentally weakened.

SPIEGEL: Mr Pöhl, are you still investing in the euro -- or has the European common currency become too unstable of late?

Pöhl: I still have money in euros, but the question is justified. There is still danger that the euro will become a weak currency.

SPIEGEL: The exchange rate with the dollar is still close to $1.25. What's the problem?

Pöhl: The foundation of the euro has fundamentally changed as a result of the decision by euro-zone governments to transform themselves into a transfer union. That is a violation of every rule. In the treaties governing the functioning of the European Union, it explicitly states that no country is liable for the debts of any other. But what we are doing right now, is exactly that. Added to this is the fact that, against all its vows, and against an explicit ban within its own constitution, the European Central Bank (ECB) has become involved in financing states. Obviously, all of that will have an impact.

SPIEGEL: What do you think will happen?

Pöhl: The euro has already sunk in value against a whole list of other currencies. This trend could continue, because what we have basically done is guarantee a long line of weaker currencies that never should have been allowed to become part of the euro.

SPIEGEL: The German government has said that there was no alternative to the rescue package for Greece, nor to that for other debt-laden countries.

Pöhl: I don't believe that. Of course there were alternatives. For instance, never having allowed Greece to become part of the euro zone in the first place.

SPIEGEL: That may be true. But that was a mistake made years ago.

Pöhl: All the same, it was a mistake. That much is completely clear. I would also have expected the (European) Commission and the ECB to intervene far earlier. They must have realized that a small, indeed a tiny, country like Greece, one with no industrial base, would never be in a position to pay back €300 billion worth of debt.

SPIEGEL: According to the rescue plan, it's actually €350 billion ...

Pöhl: ... which that country has even less chance of paying back. Without a "haircut," a partial debt waiver, it cannot and will not ever happen. So why not immediately? That would have been one alternative. The European Union should have declared half a year ago -- or even earlier -- that Greek debt needed restructuring.

SPIEGEL: But according to Chancellor Angela Merkel, that would have led to a domino effect, with repercussions for other European states facing debt crises of their own.

Pöhl: I do not believe that. I think it was about something altogether different.

SPIEGEL: Such as?

Pöhl: It was about protecting German banks, but especially the French banks, from debt write offs. On the day that the rescue package was agreed on, shares of French banks rose by up to 24 percent. Looking at that, you can see what this was really about -- namely, rescuing the banks and the rich Greeks.

SPIEGEL: In the current crisis situation, and with all the turbulence in the markets, has there really been any opportunity to share the costs of the rescue plan with creditors?

Pöhl: I believe so. They could have slashed the debts by one-third. The banks would then have had to write off a third of their securities.

SPIEGEL: There was fear that investors would not have touched Greek government bonds for years, nor would they have touched the bonds of any other southern European countries.

Pöhl: I believe the opposite would have happened. Investors would quickly have seen that Greece could get a handle on its debt problems. And for that reason, trust would quickly have been restored. But that moment has passed. Now we have this mess.

SPIEGEL: How is it possible that the foundation of the euro was abandoned, essentially overnight?

Pöhl: It did indeed happen with the stroke of a pen -- in the German parliament as well. Everyone was busy complaining about speculators and all of a sudden, anything seems possible.

SPIEGEL: You don't believe in the oft-mentioned attacks allegedly perpetrated by currency gamblers, fortune hunters and speculators?

Pöhl: No. A lot of those involved are completely honorable institutes -- such as banks, but also insurance companies and investment- and pension funds -- which are simply taking advantage of the situation. That's totally obvious. That's what the market is there for.

SPIEGEL: You really think that pension funds should be gambling with high-risk debt securities?

Pöhl: No. They should be investing their investors' money as securely as possible. Should the credit rating of a debtor worsen because that debtor has been living beyond his means for years, then it is completely rational for these institutions to get rid of these bonds -- because they have become insecure. Then other investors buy them at a lower price. They receive a higher return, but also have greater risk. That is totally normal market behavior.

SPIEGEL: With the exception that speculators are now carrying no risk at all because euro-zone members have agreed to guarantee Greek debt.

Pöhl: Yes, and that is harmful. It means that the basic balancing mechanism in the market economy is out of sync.

SPIEGEL: Is it possible that politicians invented the specter of rampant speculation to legitimize a break with the Lisbon Treaty and with the ECB's rules?

Pöhl: Of course that's possible. In fact, it's even plausible.

SPIEGEL: What will be the political consequences of this crisis?

Pöhl: The whole mechanism of the European community will change. The EU is a federation of nations, not a federal republic. But now the European Commission will have a lot more power and more authority as well as the potential to interfere in national budget law. That, however, is constitutionally problematic in Germany.

SPIEGEL: But this could also be construed as a positive development. For a long time, critics have been saying that before we can have a genuine currency union we need common fiscal and economic policy. Surely this crisis has brought the EU closer to that goal.

Pöhl: Yes, that is the logical next step of our union, but we must bear the burden. You only have to look at what it is going to cost us Germans. I would have preferred that things hadn't gone quite this far.

SPIEGEL: In the past, the bankers at the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, were vehemently opposed to any political interference -- for example, when the government wanted to take control of gold stocks. At the moment even larger taboos are being broken -- yet there has been little outcry. Why is that?

Pöhl: The president of the Bundesbank, Axel Weber, is in a bind. He has been issuing warnings about these kinds of developments for some time and he continues to do so. But of course it is difficult to keep this up in the face of a political majority.

SPIEGEL: Especially when he aspires to the presidency of the ECB and is therefore dependent on political goodwill.

Pöhl: That may also play a role.

SPIEGEL: In the run up to the currency union that was formed when Germany was reunified in 1990, it was said that, if something is economically ill-advised, it is also a political mistake. Does the rescue package for teetering euro-zone countries make sense?

Pöhl: It depends on what one wants to achieve. If the point was merely to calm the markets temporarily, then yes. But that can't be the only reason.

SPIEGEL: Because the side effects will be too large, you mean?

Pöhl: Absolutely. Just imagine if claims were made. Germany would have to pay countless billions, which is dreadful. And, it could lead to the euro becoming a weak currency.

SPIEGEL: If you were president of the Bundesbank today, would you be ordering the printing of German marks just in case they became necessary?

Pöhl: No, no, we have not gone that far quite yet. In my opinion, the euro is in no danger. Perhaps one of the smaller countries will have to leave the currency union.

SPIEGEL: How should that work?

Pöhl: It would involve Greece, if we stick with the case we were discussing, reintroducing the drachma.

SPIEGEL: But Greece doesn't seem to have any interest in doing that -- and it would be against European agreements to force Athens to leave the currency union.

Pöhl: That is correct. As long as a country receives such massive support, it would, of course, have no interest in turning its back on the euro.

SPIEGEL: You think that could change?

Pöhl: On the mid and long term, I wouldn't rule it out.

Interview conducted by Wolfgang Reuter
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Admiral Valdemar
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by Admiral Valdemar »

Germany is banning naked shorts on the exchanges from midnight too, announced just after the Eurozone markets closed. Then there's that phenomenal shift to gold that is going on, to the point that Germany has been bothering S. Africa over krugerrands to help with precious metal supply.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by aerius »

The Euro's been shitting the bed pretty good, it was all downhill in May except for the brief pop just after they did the bailouts.

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And then it really shit itself hard today. 300 basis points in a single day is just insane for foreign exchange moves among the major currencies, 50 is a sizable move, 300 is like the Dow dropping 1000 points and hitting the circuit breakers. Anyone caught on the wrong side of this trade is fucked.

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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by Starglider »

Strangely enough, after a couple of years of basically failing to get any finance industry contracts, my company is suddenly getting emails from hedge funds. They want to use our AI technology to power high frequency / flash trading, which has been evolving so fast (in volume / speed / complexity) that the limits of conventional techniques are being reached. I must admit it's a little strange to hear 'the analysis / decision cycle must be less than 20 milliseconds' in a finance context. That would more typically be the design target for AI in an FPS game.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

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In a sense it is a game, and they do want an AI. The big difference is that that sort of financial game has a real world impact FPS's don't.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

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Broomstick wrote:In a sense it is a game, and they do want an AI.
I remember reading accurate predictions about this in early 90s material for the table-top RPG 'Shadowrun', of all places. The author of the 'guide to megacorporations' book accurately predicted the 'billions of automated transactions per day, each making fractions of a cent' trading model and the attitudes of the traders involved. Specifically, people on ZeroHedge etc crowing about the 'heroic capitalist wolfpack bringing down the evil European statists'. If we really do have the massive run of sovereign bankrupcies that group are cheering for then the whole 'dystopian corporate-state future' vision becomes quite realistic.
The big difference is that that sort of financial game has a real world impact FPS's don't.
Yeah, but apparently 'greed is still good', so that's ok... :)
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by Admiral Valdemar »

I can't wait to see how the new Gekko film is received if we're going back into a major depressive cycle thanks to the wolfpacks tearing apart the Euro then moving on to the dollar. I alnost wish it was just an AI glitch that caused this and the Dow drop, at least I'd prefer it over a raping of whole nations for the sake if greed.

There's no conspiracy here, just the illusion as everyone with the power in those hedge funds and investment banks move in for the same opportunity kill. Blood in the water now, the Euro breaking 1.20 would be the feeding frenzy.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

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Admiral Valdemar wrote:at least I'd prefer it over a raping of whole nations for the sake if greed.
Ah, but it isn't just greed, at least not according to expert opinion (I've seen quite a few posts in the same vein). You don't seem to realise that it was governments that fucked everything up, not good capitalist bankers, and hence they deserve to go down. 'A painful period of creative destruction' is the only way to return to a proper entrepreneurial economy.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by Admiral Valdemar »

Yeah, was reading that article t'other day. There is plenty of blame all round really. The governments should never have swallowed the bullshit prosperity by fiddling numbers that the banksters promoted as new growth, and the banksters should go find a conscience and stop being such fucking materialistic bastards.

Now each side is pointing fingers at the other now that their time of being in bed together is clearly at an end, even for the average Joe on the street, it's clear this partnership is over.

Change we can believe in? Bah. Also, look at what is happening to Euro markets now, ZH had a good discussion on how the naked shorts trade ban wouldn't go down well with the markets. I smell a load of Round-Up getting dumped on those fabled green shoots. And this in the same week my company posts the best quarterly profits ever, up from the worst quarterly sales ever. WTF?
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by D.Turtle »

Isn't the problem simply that nobody really has a good idea of how the whole economy thing works?

Hence it was and is possible to support various measures that have (and will) turned out to be quite counterproductive in the long run?
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by Admiral Valdemar »

Basically, yes. It's simple greed and trying to control a system that is way too complex. Complex societies inevitably collapse at one point, it seems the economy of ours is that stress point. One cannot run a society via complex maths formulae that create wealth from fancy gambling, you still need to make stuff a la Chindia.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

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Admiral Valdemar wrote:Complex societies inevitably collapse at one point, it seems the economy of ours is that stress point.
Oh for god's sake. Yes, Greece may go bankrupt. But society will not collapse.

Honestly, do you do anything besides spread unrealistic and ahistorical scenarios that always proclaim the ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION OF SOCIETY? Because if so, I'd rather you do it somewhere else. Western nations have gone bankrupt before and will continue to do so in the future. In the long view, it is nothing special.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by J »

D.Turtle wrote:Isn't the problem simply that nobody really has a good idea of how the whole economy thing works?

Hence it was and is possible to support various measures that have (and will) turned out to be quite counterproductive in the long run?
Mmmm..yes, no, sorta, maybe.

We do know how the economy should work for the most part, assuming we have most of the data available. Which is problem #1, we don't, because there are many large entities which deliberately hide & lie about various things (Greece with their debts, banks with their assets & derivatives stuff, creative number fudging by the US government, etc.) and this leads to the wrong conclusions & corrective measures being taken by citizens, governments, and nations.

There's also the political aspect where the people and governments expect easy solutions to our problems; we'll just do some bailouts, kick the can down the road a few years and the growth in the future will take care of all our problems. But what if there isn't any growth, or the bailouts don't work? Then we have a problem. Try to make the needed adjustments and you risk a rash of Greek style rioting & civil disobedience. Few governments or politicians would risk that unless their balls are really in the vise.

Also related to politics, there's the fallout. What would happen if we decided to do the right things, end the financial games, and really get to work on putting our economy right? Well, a lot of nations would go the way of Iceland, our banking system would be blown clear into orbit, and there's always the chance of a regional war breaking out somewhere, or maybe some civil wars in the recently collapsed & defaulted countries.

And we can't have that. But the problem is it's going to be hard to engineer a soft landing, and the longer we keep playing these games the harder it becomes to keep things contained.
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Admiral Valdemar
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by Admiral Valdemar »

Thanas wrote:
Oh for god's sake. Yes, Greece may go bankrupt. But society will not collapse.

Honestly, do you do anything besides spread unrealistic and ahistorical scenarios that always proclaim the ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION OF SOCIETY? Because if so, I'd rather you do it somewhere else. Western nations have gone bankrupt before and will continue to do so in the future. In the long view, it is nothing special.
Ahistorical? Are you telling me civilisations HAVEN'T collapsed? It happens all the damn time! And no, it doesn't mean mankind will go extinct, before you put any more words in my mouth.

As for how this is nothing special, are you fucking kidding? Show me where this has happened before in history on this scale. Ever.

And by that I don't mean a single nation declaring bankruptcy. You know full well that is not at all what I'm talking about, else clearly Argentina dying a death a few years back would've been TEH ENDZ! :roll: The end of cheap credit and cheap energy will be the collapse of society as we know it, and it will definitely impact a lot of nations far more than you seem to think. Your supposed leader was cawing on about how we were all saved a week ago, now she's saying the EU is facing it's gravest crisis ever and may not survive the encounter. Hilarious.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

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Broomstick wrote:In a sense it is a game, and they do want an AI. The big difference is that that sort of financial game has a real world impact FPS's don't.
Entrepreneurs are like RPG players that instead of leveling they accumulate capital.

This type of game has a direct real world consequence for the people that play it and for all the people that sell and buy stuff from him.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

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Which probably doesn't help matters when it takes a quite aggressive, sociopathic person to be a good trader on the floor too. They get highs off making a killing like an addict of any illicit substance, to them, the winning is all that matters. Casual investors will do it to make sure their pension fund is still worth something in the future, maybe even worth a little more. The pros are the ones who will take you to town and literally rob the bank.

As I say, without this kind of mentality changing, we're just going round in circles. How long can we bailout and then have the banksters steal all that cash and squirrel it away?
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

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Iosef Cross wrote:Entrepreneurs are like RPG players that instead of leveling they accumulate capital.
Wholly untrue, in my experience. Real entrepreneurs are excited by building new businesses. Yes money is nice but once you get into seven figures publicity is more appealing. Gains are usually reinvested into further ventures. And of course most would-be entrepreneurs never make serious money at all. Only a minute fraction make it up to the 'rich list' category, and a lot of those are uncomfortable to be there.

Bankers and traders are (generally) not entrepreneurs. They are not building anything persistent or worthwhile.
This type of game has a direct real world consequence for the people that play it and for all the people that sell and buy stuff from him.
True, but everyone involved is doing so voluntarily. Unlike a command economy, no one is holding a gun to your head and saying you must allocate capital this way. Ultimately, all losses are due to someone making a stupid decision. It's just unfortunate that most people aren't in a position to make the critical decisions themselves, so end up catching fallout when someone elses bad decisions (company CEO, pension fund manager etc) cause a disaster.
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Re: Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

Post by Thanas »

Admiral Valdemar wrote:
Thanas wrote:
Oh for god's sake. Yes, Greece may go bankrupt. But society will not collapse.

Honestly, do you do anything besides spread unrealistic and ahistorical scenarios that always proclaim the ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION OF SOCIETY? Because if so, I'd rather you do it somewhere else. Western nations have gone bankrupt before and will continue to do so in the future. In the long view, it is nothing special.
Ahistorical? Are you telling me civilisations HAVEN'T collapsed?
Take a minute to read what I actually wrote before you decend into hysterics, shall we?
scared little boy wrote:Complex societies inevitably collapse at one point, it seems the economy of ours is that stress point.
So yeah, according to you economy and civilization will collapse (or at the very least the economy) now. Btw, what degree do you hold in the relevant field?
As for how this is nothing special, are you fucking kidding? Show me where this has happened before in history on this scale. Ever.
The Spanish Empire declared bankruptcy three times in its existence. At the time this happened, the Spanish Empire was far more powerful and important to both world economy and civilization (being the most powerful state in existence by far) than the EU as a whole is today.

When it declared bankruptcy, it took with them the largest banks in Europe, including Fugger, whose earnings were far higher than what the Holy Roman Empire collected in tax revenue.

At no point did these societies collapse, nor did the overall economy. Bankruptcy is a normal instrument of business.

I could go on (The economy of the Netherlands crashed several times. The Thirty Year's war caused even more bankruptcies by wiping out nearly a third of the most important trading cities and 20% of the population), but the point is made. Bankruptcy does not lead to economic collapse nor to the collapse of society. That is why it is called bankruptcy - the orderly process of settling one's debts.
And by that I don't mean a single nation declaring bankruptcy. You know full well that is not at all what I'm talking about, else clearly Argentina dying a death a few years back would've been TEH ENDZ! :roll:
Yeah, because Argentina is so important to the world economy like the EU, whose economy according to you is about to collapse. Right.
The end of cheap credit and cheap energy will be the collapse of society as we know it, and it will definitely impact a lot of nations far more than you seem to think. Your supposed leader was cawing on about how we were all saved a week ago, now she's saying the EU is facing it's gravest crisis ever and may not survive the encounter. Hilarious.
Right. This is absolutely the worst crisis the European nations have ever faced. Oh nooo, we are all doomed.

Get a grip. The economy will not collapse. It will take a hit and may suffer another recession. But this is not the end of the world. Nor is it the collapse of the economy or society.
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