The Norks are Suspected of Sinking South Korean Shipping.

[Illuminatus Primus]

Calorie shortages materially weaken both their military and their industrial base. Furthermore starving people are desperate and more likely to risk an uprising. It's a horrible thing to do, but it should only have to be done once. Letting the communist regime endure for decades more will just result in an endless stream of deaths, poverty and despair.

There's not a shred of historical evidence to suggest this tactic is even reasonably sure enough to work to justify the deliberate human cost to our hands. Why add to the teeth-gnashing privation if it very well might not help and just exacerbate their problems and provide greater propaganda to solidify ranks around the regime, casting the West as a genocidal menace?

[hongi]

Obviously, this information may not be indicative of the country as a whole, I'm just trying to offer an alternate "ear to the ground" source of information.

Few people in Korea want a war. But the bloody Norks are just piling onto the anger that ordinary Koreans feel. If the government does nothing, no penalties or anything like that, they'll lose all credibility.

So North Korea is threatening war if they are punished. What do you guys think? Should South Korea punish them? And why on Earth did North Korea destroy that ship anyway? Are they insane?

[Edward Yee]

And a big part of traditional Korean thinking is an ethnocentric view which has the North and South Koreans both being more united by their common Korean-ness than they are divided by their separate governments.

That's what I was referring to. Anyone remember the teeny-bopper movie about Kim Jong-il's daughter?

[Simon_Jester]

So North Korea is threatening war if they are punished. What do you guys think? Should South Korea punish them?

No. It's just... not worth it. The North Koreans have a city of twenty million people directly under their guns. Even ignoring the possibility that they have functioning nuclear missiles*... I honestly can't think of an analogy for how many people could die the North Korean bombardment. The sheer number of shells landing on the place would kill thousands in the opening minutes alone.

So no, I really don't think this is worth fighting over, though that leaves a bad taste in my mouth. I know someone who lives in Seoul, and I don't want to imagine her under an artillery barrage.

*Given the quality of their technical infrastructure, one successful missile test plus one successful nuclear test does NOT mean that they have working nuclear missiles. Though they might and it would be incredibly stupid to rule that out.

And why on Earth did North Korea destroy that ship anyway? Are they insane?

Quite possibly.

[Kamakazie Sith]

Obviously, this information may not be indicative of the country as a whole, I'm just trying to offer an alternate "ear to the ground" source of information.

Few people in Korea want a war. But the bloody Norks are just piling onto the anger that ordinary Koreans feel. If the government does nothing, no penalties or anything like that, they'll lose all credibility.

So North Korea is threatening war if they are punished. What do you guys think? Should South Korea punish them? And why on Earth did North Korea destroy that ship anyway? Are they insane?

Fuck yeah they should be punished, but it should be the world community that does it. I think North Korea enjoys testing its limits.

[Master of Ossus]

Few people in Korea want a war. But the bloody Norks are just piling onto the anger that ordinary Koreans feel. If the government does nothing, no penalties or anything like that, they'll lose all credibility.

So North Korea is threatening war if they are punished. What do you guys think? Should South Korea punish them?

Absolutely. This is simply a huge escalation of what was going on.

And why on Earth did North Korea destroy that ship anyway? Are they insane?

It's probably a slap at the new South Korean government, which rescinded the "joint fishing area" agreement that the previous government negotiated in the waning days of its administration.

[Korgeta]

There is a possibility that North Korea's military is acting on it's own accord and without the say of it's military leader Kim Jong-il, who is trying to get his son placed as future succsor. This could be an attempt not to just test south korea, but also be directed at Ki Jong-il, that the military of N Korea now has the strength to do what it wants. There have been other skirmishes by noth korea in the past. Only this has been a skirmish at a time when N Korea has been testing missile ranges and have achived succeful nuclear detonations within it's labs in the past few years. Whilst nobody wants a war (well at least everyone but North Korea) it'll depend on how China will respond in it's support or welcome any sanctions.

Heavy sanctions is most likely but it won't stop North Korea, and like with anything else in life, if you were pushed about by someone won't you push them back? Perhaps not now but I believe this will be the first series of incidents that will build up to a redeclartion of war.

[Isolder74]

I hate to point out that war has technically never ceased between North and South Korea. It means a return to a state of active war rather then a long unresolved cease fire.

It would really be nice if the Korean War had actually ended.....

[recon20011]

Everything I've heard on the radio today (BBC World) and read online (CNN, BBC, a couple more English papers and a Japanese English-language paper) indicates that the South Korean government has promised a response but hasn't specified what form it would take. Additionally,the UK foreign minister has promised to work with SK to find a suitable response.
A popular theory is that the North Koreans are attempting to pressure South Korea to resume the Sunshine Policies. Since I don't believe that North Korea can possibly gain from a new all-out war I believe this theory for the time being.

My opinion on how it happened is that a diesel sub was laying in wait in the shallow water and fired a torpedo. The way I understand it, a decent diesel boat running on only batteries can be pretty quiet, and unless the Cheonan was pinging away with active sonar she's probably not going to "see" the sub, especially given the supposed quality of her sonar.
Does anyone know the depth of the water in that area and if its suitable for shallow-water submarine operations? Also, all my information on submarines come from the Clancy book someone referenced earlier about nuclear subs and online research about SSNs, SSKs, etc.

AS to a prediction for how any all-out war might happen... I'm guessing the North Korean army launches a conventional assault across the DMZ after a heavy preliminary bombardment and much infiltration, or the use of tactical nuclear weapons to clear the road to Seoul followed by a rapid conventional advance to gain the protection of civilian shields against SK/US/UN responses-in-kind. Does anyone know if the DMZ is still considered to be manned by UN troops (even if they are all Americans)?

[Ryan Thunder]

Is there any way at all to destroy the Nork artillery before they can fire?

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Is there any way at all to destroy the Nork artillery before they can fire?

Massed tactical nuclear weapons.

[Simon_Jester]

And since none of the nuclear powers have doctrine that would clear them to launch preemptive nuclear carpet bombing of the North Korean batteries, that's not likely to happen.

This is one case where I could really see a first use of nuclear weapons being justified. Those artillery bunkers are a hardened military target, one that is poised to kill thousands of civilians in minutes and tens (for all I know hundreds) of thousands of civilians in hours.

[Sea Skimmer]

Nuclear weapons would frankly do little to solve the problem. The terrain is so rough and so many of the artillery sites are well fortified or mobile, or both, that you'd be hard pressed to kill more then two or three batteries with a single tactical nuclear bomb. This is barely worth it considering with JDAMs can do for us.

But in reality, only a small slice of North Korean territory is within range of Seoul, and destroying all the known artillery batteries in that area would be easily within reason if we sent out three or four dozen heavy bombers, which we could. The first wave would massively carpet bomb the area, then the second would drop JDAMs on all the known artillery bunkers. ROK counter battery could silence any survivors quickly enough and airborne radar platforms would monitor any ground movement for immediate suppression.

The trouble is... everywhere else in northern South Korea. A couple million South Koreans who are not in central Seoul are also within range, in some cases within range from as little as a North Korean 120mm mortar. The DMZ is a big place, but still that still only means about 4,000 meters wide. Some rifles can fire clear across that. I wouldn't trust carpet nuking to stop North Koreans from coming up out of holes to start lobbing nerve gas or small pox back, so even if we could, would you even want to try?

You'd also have to nuke the entire country to eliminate the threat of North Korean ballistic missile launchers, many of which are sheltering in tunnels nothing but a near direct hit is going to kill. Enough PAC-3, THAAD and SM-3 warshots don't exist on the planet to be sure of destroying the pile of missiles they have, so if it comes to a war South Korea has just has count on eating some of them in the face. Some real nice systems are in the works to clamp down on the threat of mobile SCUD spam, but a bunch of other ones were killed like KEI and ABL so this situation isn't going to change anytime soon. I estimate at least five to seven more years before the US has enough ABM missiles to counter that threat (based on the last three years production rates, and tight future budgets), and even then this would require that all of them are deployed to the Korean-Japan area.

[Night_stalker]

Just cut off all imports into NK, send back their diplomats to stop their spread of superdollars and drugs, and sit back and wait. They will either starve or try somehting outrageously hostile that will end with their destruction.

[Lonestar]

And why on Earth did North Korea destroy that ship anyway? Are they insane?

Crab Season

John Byron, our chief contrarian correspondent, recently wrote about stopping what he sees as the runaway military welfare train. The North Korean navy recently has provided an counter-example of what happens when a military is starved for support. North Korean patrol ships are getting pushy in contested waters, apparently because the crab season is about to begin, and (according to proven provider John McCreary) Pyongyang's military mariners survive in part by crabbing and so in late spring start laying claim to crustacean-rich waters. I have this image in my head of the USS Harry S Truman cruising the Med with seine nets out.

[Night_stalker]

You're telling me that WW3 could start because some North Korean sailors want to spice up their gruel with crab meat?

[Lonestar]

I think it be hyperbole to call a war with North Korea "WW3".

And hungry people do stupid things(Somali Piracy comes to mind).

[Night_stalker]

Yes, but at least they haven't sunk a warship, then denied that they were involved in it's destruction, or claimed tha thte warship fired first. For Pete's sake, it must have been a sub, as no one on the ship reported seing a surface vessel nearby, IE it must have been a sub, and subs aren't known for randomly firing off torpedoes for no reason. I suspect that the crew of the vessel that caused this are all dead due to brain hemmorages exactly 9-MM in diameter.

[recon20011]

Just cut off all imports into NK, send back their diplomats to stop their spread of superdollars and drugs, and sit back and wait. They will either starve or try somehting outrageously hostile that will end with their destruction.

That is the problem. There are virtually NO imports to North Korea. North Korea has exports though, mainly to South Korea. And while she does spend some money in South Korea even now, the North relies on South Korea for its foreign currency. China provides some trade and some aid, exactly how much I would have to say is unknown, even if China says how much I'm of the opinion they are fudging the numbers. There is an industrial complex in North Korea overseen by South Koreans and operated by North Korean labor. There was an idea floated to shut that complex down, but it is seen as a way to spread propaganda to the North's workers there and also it is believed that once it is shut down it will never be re-opened.

Thus, sanctions are highly unlikely to have any effect whatsoever on North Korea. It is already under sanctions. What more can the international community do to them?


And from what it sounded like Lonestar's article was saying was that the North Korean Navy isn't trying to spice up their diet with crabs, crabs are their diet.

[Lonestar]

Yes, but at least they haven't sunk a warship, then denied that they were involved in it's destruction, or claimed tha thte warship fired first. For Pete's sake, it must have been a sub, as no one on the ship reported seing a surface vessel nearby, IE it must have been a sub, and subs aren't known for randomly firing off torpedoes for no reason.

Or the Nork Navy is a big happy family where they all work together? Just because submariners don't fish...



( )

...well, don't fish as much as the Nork surface navy, doesn't mean that a decision can't be made to "scare off" ROKN vessels.

I suspect that the crew of the vessel that caused this are all dead due to brain hemmorages exactly 9-MM in diameter.

Be honest, you read that in a Tom Clancy book and thought it was clever, didn't you?

[Korgeta]

Am hoping N Korea gets knocked out early during the world cup, or south korea for that matter. If the two fans meet then it's going to be a headache to say the least for security at south africa. I won't be surprised if south korea does make some kind of responce that removing north korea from the world cup could be one of them.

[Night_stalker]

Yes, but at least they haven't sunk a warship, then denied that they were involved in it's destruction, or claimed tha thte warship fired first. For Pete's sake, it must have been a sub, as no one on the ship reported seing a surface vessel nearby, IE it must have been a sub, and subs aren't known for randomly firing off torpedoes for no reason.

Or the Nork Navy is a big happy family where they all work together? Just because submariners don't fish...



( )

...well, don't fish as much as the Nork surface navy, doesn't mean that a decision can't be made to "scare off" ROKN vessels.

I suspect that the crew of the vessel that caused this are all dead due to brain hemmorages exactly 9-MM in diameter.

Be honest, you read that in a Tom Clancy book and thought it was clever, didn't you?

Yes , but my point is that the NK High Command doesn't really tolerate stupidity in my mind, and nearly starting a war with the well equipped SK military seems stupid. Plus, does China really strike you as the sort to try and support a small province that offers them nothing but headaches in return?

[recon20011]

Here is the official report as reported by the BBC website. Just to quell any doubts as to what it is believed happened.

[Lonestar]

The Norks have thought it was a "good idea" to bomb airliners, send commando teams to cap the ROK President, kidnap Japanese subjects(to force them to teach Japanese to Nork diplomats), attack American AGIs, and plow forward with nuclear weapon programs while their people are eating tree bark to survive.

I find it completely believable that some Nork commodore thought "we need to scare away the ROK Navy so we can get a good crab harvest this year" and targeted a ROKN vessel.

I also think you are grossly overestimating how much China supports the DPRK. All they are doing is keeping the regime on life support out of political inertia.

[Korgeta]

The Norks have thought it was a "good idea" to bomb airliners, send commando teams to cap the ROK President, kidnap Japanese subjects(to force them to teach Japanese to Nork diplomats), attack American AGIs, and plow forward with nuclear weapon programs while their people are eating tree bark to survive.

I find it completely believable that some Nork commodore thought "we need to scare away the ROK Navy so we can get a good crab harvest this year" and targeted a ROKN vessel.

I also think you are grossly overestimating how much China supports the DPRK. All they are doing is keeping the regime on life support out of political inertia.

Though those in power of North Korea haven't suffered any reprisals themselves, only it's civillians, and if Kim hasn't been affected by what is happening then why change the currant approach?