The Norks are Suspected of Sinking South Korean Shipping.

[CJvR]

The Nork navy have quite a few subs:

25 Romeo class. (Russian 50'ies design)
4 Whiskey class. (Russian 40'ies design)
20-25 Sang-O class. (Local simplified copy of Yugoslav 60'ies Heroj class)
40-50 Yugo class mini subs for infiltration missions.

I wonder how many are seaworthy.

The RoK navy have:
3 Type 214 with 6 more building/ordered
6 Type 209, 3 more being withdrawn.

[Nephtys]

Well, let's see.

1. Kidnapping of Japanese Actresses
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/2821221.stm
The most famous case was basically from 1978 to 1986, where an Actress and Director were kidnapped on Kim Jong Il's personal orders, so that he could make movies with them. Seriously. He had written stuff he wanted to film or something similarly ridiculous. They managed to escape because they ran away from their keepers and managed to make it to an American Embassy. Kim admitted in 2002 to kidnapping 13 seperate Japanese citizens similarly. The Japanese believe it's more, and only 5 or 6 of them have ever been returned. The rest are presumed dead, or claimed to have died in North Korea.

There's other cases too, including a failed attempt to kidnap a South Korean Pianist, and the seizure of an emergency landing passenger plane, it's pilot, crew, and all passengers who have still not been returned or heard from after 40 years.

2. Kim Junior's Attempt to Sneak into Disneyland
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 83627.html
The eldest Son and Heir Apparent of NK, Kim Jong Nan was arrested with his family and a servant, traveling under false documents to Japan in 2001. Seriously. And with 'Dominican' Passports, for some strange reason. What the hell?

3. North Korean Skyscraper built solely to 1-up South Korea
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryugyong_Hotel
Built and then left around unused for 20 years, this thing's sole purpose was to go 'oh, we have a taller business tower', even though most of it's floors were empty concrete. They even tried to hide their shame of having this failure by photoshopping it out of pictures they release of the city skyline, and leaving it off maps. It's for 'foreign business', in a nation that doesn't even have any foreign business. Even more hilarious when you realize this useless building cost as much as 2 percent of their whole country's GDP.

So yeah. There's ridiculous crazy there.

[Prannon]

Except they are crazy, and often do illogical things. What kind of a nation's leadership kidnaps japanese actresses, and makes them act in your own fan-scripts? What kind of nation's heir to the head of state gets caught trying to smuggle themselves and their families into Disney Land? What kind of head of state in a penniless country demands to build a 101 story tower, when they hear South Korea is building a 100 story tower, only to leave the upper 90 floors completely empty and unfurnished when it's complete?

North Korea is crazy. There is no conceivable logic behind any of those actions.

You're wrong on the "conceivable logic" aspect of it. Kim Jong-il had reasons for doing what he did, although they're not very good ones. He's a very eccentric and strange man, sleeping all day and working only at night, and harboring an obsession for film and movies. That's part of the reason why he kidnapped foreign actresses, directors, and so on. He wanted them to improve his country's screenplays so that they could compete with South Korea. It's the pride thing again. Can't be outdone by your poor, occupied-by-imperialist-US brothers.

What kind of nation's heir gets caught going to Disney Land? The unrestrained kind, of course. He was a lot like Jong-il, actually, when he was that age. No one could say no to him, and in that kind of environment you expect to be able to do whatever you want. He probably thought he could get away with it and not get caught, such was his hubris.

What kind of head of a penniless state builds a 101 story tower? The kind who can't be outdone by his poor, occupied-by-those-pesky-imperialist-invaders Korean brothers of course! It's dumb. It's stupid. It's a mad obsession even. But it's also Korea. Very proud. Very face-saving. To do any less than what they've done would be to admit that they lost and that South Korea is now the superior partner on the peninsula. That would be a fate almost worse than death to a Korean.

So, in my mind, stupid. Crazy? Not really.

[Beowulf]

What kind of head of state in a penniless country demands to build a 101 story tower, when they hear South Korea is building a 100 story tower, only to leave the upper 90 floors completely empty and unfurnished when it's complete?

That one I can answer: It's one-upsmanship on the grandest scale. They heard that the Sorks were going to get a world-recor-breaking building, so they decide that they're going to take the record themselves. That building, BTW, is pretty much a needle. They produce these things for propaganda purposes, both within and without.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryugyong_Hotel

That's not really a needle. It's more of a pyramid. For quite some time, it's also been unmentionable in NK, despite it being a dominating feature of the skyline of Pyongyang.

[White Haven]

What, does something have to be incomprehensible to be crazy in your book? I can understand that a paranoid schizophrenic behaves abnormally because he honestly believes that the entire world is out to get him. I can understand that someone with multiple personality disorder can have wild swings in mood and actions because a different persona has come to the forefront. I can understand that a sociopath can kill without a second's thought or remorse because, to him, no one else really registers as a person.

That doesn't make any of the above not fucking crazy.

[MKSheppard]

You forgot the biggest flag in the world.

[Prannon]

What, does something have to be incomprehensible to be crazy in your book? I can understand that a paranoid schizophrenic behaves abnormally because he honestly believes that the entire world is out to get him. I can understand that someone with multiple personality disorder can have wild swings in mood and actions because a different persona has come to the forefront. I can understand that a sociopath can kill without a second's thought or remorse because, to him, no one else really registers as a person.

That doesn't make any of the above not fucking crazy.

Eh, after this discussion I'm pretty much not bothered by classifying them as crazy or sane. In international diplomacy contexts, yeah, they're pretty much crazy. They do things that don't make sense within that context. Destroying a frigate doesn't make sense because they risk alienating China, their primary business partner, and they risk losing what investment they have managed to get from South Korea so far. The joint commercial area at Kaesong is a prime example, and actually the Norks have already expelled all of South Korea's government and economic workers from that complex. Given that they are in desperate need of any sort of currency and economic activity, that is insanely stupid.

It's just that when you look at their internal context and the context of the Korean conflict in general, their actions do make sense. And the thing to me is that they are so trapped within their pride and need to feel equal to South Korea that they do crazy things. Even with this latest sinking, it may have been that some sub captain got so filled with nationalist zeal for his Dear Leader that he gave the order to fire on that damn imperialist ship that was trespassing in their waters! I mean, that's what he'd been taught all his life. Personally, without any evidence, that's what I think happened.

I suppose that I just get frustrated with people who seem satisfied with saying "the Norks are crazy" without really understanding why. It seems really dismissive to me.

[Prannon]

You forgot the biggest flag in the world.

I saw that one at Panmunjom on the border, actually. And yes, it's huge. Bigger than the buildings it flies over. It was a rainy day when I got to see it, and the tour guide said something about them having to take it down soon or it would tear under its own weight. When wet, it weighed something like 500 pounds, give or take.

Interesting story behind it, and more evidence of North Korea's pride at work. The UN general came to one of the joint meetings in the MAC building with a US flag, and he put it on his end of the table. At the next meeting, the North Koreans brought their own flag, only it was bigger. The UN task force, not wanting to back down, brought a bigger one the next time, and so it went until they actually started building flag poles. On the southern end of the border, they built a rather high pole for the Korean flag that flies over Freedom Village. And on the northern end of the border, they built an ever higher one that flies over Propaganda village. The UN pretty much backed off then, not wanting it to get even more out of hand than that.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I wouldn't bother with terms like insane, crazy etc. To put it more bluntly, Kim Jong Il's mind is that of a schoolyard bully, who never outgrew his childhood, and his sons are groomed in a similar fashion. But now, the schoolyard bully doesn't have a big enough stick, gets paranoid, and hurls rocks to say, kill the neighbour's dog, just to annoy him.

[K. A. Pital]

Kim Jong is a typical Asian despot and exhibits many traits common to Asian despoties of the preceding ages. It's definetely nothing "insane", but very atypical for our modern standards.

[Prannon]

I wouldn't bother with terms like insane, crazy etc. To put it more bluntly, Kim Jong Il's mind is that of a schoolyard bully, who never outgrew his childhood, and his sons are groomed in a similar fashion. But now, the schoolyard bully doesn't have a big enough stick, gets paranoid, and hurls rocks to say, kill the neighbour's dog, just to annoy him.

Kim Jong is a typical Asian despot and exhibits many traits common to Asian despoties of the preceding ages. It's definetely nothing "insane", but very atypical for our modern standards.

I think both of these comments are spot on, especially the comparison to a school yard bully. Strange, eccentric, proud, bullish, conservative, set-in-his-ways to a fault, but not "crazy" in the typical definition of the word.

[Atlan]

I'm sorry, but phrases like "Strange and Eccentric" merely mean that he's a nutcase with power.

It's the same thing with English Lords: They're not Mad, they're eccentric.

You simply have more power/wealth than the average person, and then perception shifts. But in the end you're a lunatic.

[Bluewolf]

North Korea has announced it will scrap an agreement aimed at preventing accidental naval clashes with South Korea, amid rising tensions over the sinking of a South Korean warship.

The move is in retaliation for Seoul blaming Pyongyang for a torpedo attack that sank the Cheonan in March.

The announcement comes as the South Korean navy conducts a major anti-submarine drill.

An international probe found the Cheonan was sunk by a Northern torpedo.

North Korea has denied the allegation.

In a statement on the North Korean official news agency on Thursday, the North Korean military said the country would "completely nullify the bilateral agreement that was concluded to prevent a contingent clash in the West Sea of Korea [Yellow Sea].

"In connection with this, [we] will completely stop using international maritime ultra-short wave walkie-talkies and will immediately cut off the communication line that was opened to handle an emergency situation."

It also warned of an immediate attack if the South's navy violated the disputed Yellow Sea borderline, and that it would consider a complete block on access to a joint industrial project in the North Korean city of Kaesong.

The BBC's John Sudworth in Seoul says the announcement is another piece in the picture that is coming out of North Korea of increasing tension.

On Tuesday, North Korea announced it would sever all ties with the South.

It had also banned South Korean ships and planes from its territory - a measure it repeated in its Thursday statement.

South Korea will "resolutely" deal with the North's measures, a South Korean defence ministry official said without elaborating, according to the Associated Press news agency.

South Korea had already announced a package of measures, including a halt to most trade with North Korea. It is also seeking action via the United Nations Security Council.

The Yellow Sea was the site of deadly naval skirmishes in 1999 and 2002.

South Korean drill
Thursday's announcement came hours after 10 South Korean warships took part in an anti-submarine drill.

The South Korean exercise is one of the first visible signs of a raising of South Korea's defence posture in response to the incident, our correspondent says.

With tensions rising rapidly, the North has reacted angrily to trade and shipping sanctions announced by the South.

The two states are technically still at war after the Korean conflict ended without a peace treaty in 1953.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia_p ... 170019.stm

[Chris OFarrell]

I've heard reports that the Chinese are somewhat divided on the issue of what to do.

It sounds like the Civilian side are really starting to get to the end of their rope with the North Koreans for several reasons;

1. China wants to be a major player, THE major player, in the region, but the North screaming like this is just making more and more nations swing back to the US. The US is firmly standing with South Korea when not that long ago you had protests asking them to go home, for example. And the Japanese just reversed their decisions to kick the US bases out that was a big election thing, because they want the US on hand if things go south.

2. China also knows how increasingly stupid they are looking being in the 'North Korean' corner. The Naval investigation team has some rather damn conclusive evidence, and the Chinese don't WANT to come out and say 'Yes, this is the Norths fault', but they know it, and they know that the rest of the world KNOWS that they know, and they are looking increasingly stupid and indecisive, again, not the image the new strong and expanding China wants to project.

3. The North Korean Government is clearly not listening to them. I've heard that when Kim and his flunkies head to China, the Chinese are taking great pains to show them around the massive building and construction sites in China, giving them the unsubtle message that 'This can all be yours if you just start engaging with the world like we have', and they are clearly being ignored.

On the other hand, I've also read that the PLA are firmly in the North Koreans court, something that surprised me. But apparently at the high 'oldschool General' level, there are very deep, active and strong ties between the two nations, from the Korean war days till now, and they are being far more hostile to the idea that the North did this or, at least, that they were unprovoked in doing it.

Until we see this play out in the Chinese Government and a clear position taken, I get the feeling China is going to keep making very indecisive, neutral and useless comments...but time is running out for them to take a side, one way or the other...

[mr friendly guy]

Thats an interesting analysis Chris. Thanks.

So it seems that Chinese indecision stems from several factions with opposing viewpoints, just like how opposing political parties here might lead to a watered down policy. Only difference is the spats are not as public as over here so its harder to get a feel for it. I figured this one out, however I was surprise that the "conservative" force in the Chinese government is the PLA.

However for the moment (and I stress the for the moment part) I don't necessarily see it as a case of "the longer they drag the feet the worse it gets". I remember an article of the SK president visiting China (I think it was scheduled anyway) and was going to use the opportunity to press the Chinese leadership for diplomatic support. At present they still have a window of opportunity to lean on NK and get some result which makes them look good or at least join the chorus of nations supporting SK on this one.

[Big Phil]

I've heard reports that the Chinese are somewhat divided on the issue of what to do.

It sounds like the Civilian side are really starting to get to the end of their rope with the North Koreans for several reasons;

1. China wants to be a major player, THE major player, in the region, but the North screaming like this is just making more and more nations swing back to the US. The US is firmly standing with South Korea when not that long ago you had protests asking them to go home, for example. And the Japanese just reversed their decisions to kick the US bases out that was a big election thing, because they want the US on hand if things go south.

2. China also knows how increasingly stupid they are looking being in the 'North Korean' corner. The Naval investigation team has some rather damn conclusive evidence, and the Chinese don't WANT to come out and say 'Yes, this is the Norths fault', but they know it, and they know that the rest of the world KNOWS that they know, and they are looking increasingly stupid and indecisive, again, not the image the new strong and expanding China wants to project.

3. The North Korean Government is clearly not listening to them. I've heard that when Kim and his flunkies head to China, the Chinese are taking great pains to show them around the massive building and construction sites in China, giving them the unsubtle message that 'This can all be yours if you just start engaging with the world like we have', and they are clearly being ignored.

On the other hand, I've also read that the PLA are firmly in the North Koreans court, something that surprised me. But apparently at the high 'oldschool General' level, there are very deep, active and strong ties between the two nations, from the Korean war days till now, and they are being far more hostile to the idea that the North did this or, at least, that they were unprovoked in doing it.

Until we see this play out in the Chinese Government and a clear position taken, I get the feeling China is going to keep making very indecisive, neutral and useless comments...but time is running out for them to take a side, one way or the other...

Do you have any references we can read, or is this anecdotal?

[Stuart]

I'm sorry, but phrases like "Strange and Eccentric" merely mean that he's a nutcase with power. It's the same thing with English Lords: They're not Mad, they're eccentric. You simply have more power/wealth than the average person, and then perception shifts. But in the end you're a lunatic.

It's one of those irregular English verbs.

I am an unconventional free-thinker
You are strange and eccentric
He is batshit crazy.

The North Korean leadership is not crazy. They have, for many years, exploited the vulnerability of the Seoul area in particular and the general disinclination to start a war on the Korean peninsula to leverage political concessions. As a strategy, their bellicosity and aggression has been highly successful in gaining them the strategic aims they were pursuing. At the same time, they have paid relatively little price for those gains. Pursuing a strategy that brings in significant gains at minimal costs is not, by any rational measure, crazy.

They're playing to a different set of rules and they continue to play by them because those rules work for them. If every time they had tried to play by those rules they got bitch-slapped around the block a few times yet kept trying, then they would indeed be crazy.

Chris's comment (with which I agree) comes from Stratfor - or at least Stratfor says the same thing.

[Night_stalker]

Great. So we have a batshit crazy dictator in charge of 1.21 million soliders, plus numerous chemical weapons and the world's biggest army may send troops to support him. This could be a problem.

[Ritterin Sophia]

Great. So we have a batshit crazy dictator in charge of 1.21 million soliders, plus numerous chemical weapons and the world's biggest army may send troops to support him. This could be a problem.

You act like this is a new scenario than the one we've been facing?

[Edward Yee]

I am an unconventional free-thinker
You are strange and eccentric
He is batshit crazy.

Anyone have a way to cut the first one down to five syllables so that we can have a haiku?

#3 of Chris' anecdote as an annoyance makes sense from both a "Korean cultural mindset" and... if not (always) a "Chinese cultural mindset," it's certainly understandable that the civilian government would mind being spurned (by being ignored) by North Korea yet NK still wanting to be propped up... and, as Stuart pointed out, the situation very much favoring North Korea. But it's not the first time I've heard that the Chinese central government thinks quite poorly of the Kim regime... something about Jong-il being "a two-year-old Hitler" by a PRC spokesman or unnamed Foreign Ministry official...

Night_Stalker... he's not batshit crazy, "he" (or rather the regime) has simply figured out what works.

[Thirdfain]

Chris's comment (with which I agree) comes from Stratfor - or at least Stratfor says the same thing.

I've been reading Stratfor to keep abreast with the North Korea issue; since my girlfriend is in the ROK right now, I'd like to think some of the Stratfor predictions about the instability of the situation are incorrect. Would you say the folks at Stratfor have their heads screwed on straight?

[xerex]

the people at Stratfor usually have good information sources.-- their analysis however usually sucks. They have a tendency to jump to the worst case scenario rather than the likely scenario. Esp since 9/11.

[Simon_Jester]

I am an unconventional free-thinker
You are strange and eccentric
He is batshit crazy.

Anyone have a way to cut the first one down to five syllables so that we can have a haiku?

Easy-peasy, my friend!

I'm a free-thinker.
You are strange and eccentric.
He's batshit crazy.

[Stuart]

the people at Stratfor usually have good information sources.-- their analysis however usually sucks. They have a tendency to jump to the worst case scenario rather than the likely scenario. Esp since 9/11.

The thing about being a pessimist is that one is so rarely disappointed. Their freebie public stuff does tend to be gloom and doom laden but when one gets into their premium subscription services, their analysis is a lot better and a lot more balanced. I'd rate them very highly on information content and above average on analysis - provided you pay for it.

[Shroom Man 777]

This reminds me of something I read about relating to the Cold War. When the situation in Vietnam was getting shit, the Americans launched Operation Giant Lance "a highly secretive military operation by the United States during the Cold War. On October 10, 1969, U.S. President Richard Nixon ordered a squadron of 18 B-52s loaded with nuclear weapons to race to the border of Soviet airspace in order to convince the Soviet Union that Nixon was capable of anything to end the Vietnam War. The operation concluded on October 30. Details of the plan remained unknown to the public until Freedom of Information Act requests in the 2000s revealed documents about the operation.

Giant Lance was based on the game theory idea of the irrational actor. Two people are stuck in a deadly situation, for example, chained together on the edge of a cliff, and the game can be won by the other person giving in and the winner gets a big prize. One strategy is to act in such an irrational manner to convince the other person that you are a "madman" and capable of anything. Rather than die, the other person would rather give up the prize and give in."


Do the bold bits sound familiar? Maybe that's what North Korea's been doing, acting irrational so the more rational people - fearing their irrationality and what it may bring - concede to them?