Israeli forces attack humanitarian convoy in intl. waters

[ShadowDragon8685]

Yeah, yeah, yeah...

What exactly is the Turkish government going to do about it? Send a strongly worded letter of protest? They don't give a greasy goat's dick and this is all for show. If they did care, they would have had warships in the area to protect their supply ships, now wouldn't they? They didn't and they don't. Until they do something, I consider their reaction so much hot air.

Come to think of it, the way the Turks handled this is WORSE than blowing hot air. The people who took part in this effort probably thought the Turkish government, by approving this mission, was going to make sure they weren't attacked -at least not on the open seas. The Turks did nothing and there's no reason to think they will in the future.

It's not so much what Turkey will do as what the U.S. will do.

Turkey will start screaming for everyone to condemn Isreal. The EU, who are by this point more or less fed up with the whole thing and probably couldn't care less if Isreal and all her neighbors self-anihiliated in an orgy of nonnuclear mutual destruction, whose opinions can at this point probably be best expressed as "a pox 'pon both their houses!," will happily leap to the defense of a prospective member against what is an obvious attack on what are going to be assumed by everyone to be unarmed humanitarian ships.

This of course, neatly encompasses most of the NATO members who are relevant to the discussion anyway; the outlyer being the United States, who to be perfectly frank can't fall to her knees fast enough to get a mouthful of fat Israeli cock under most circumstances.

But this isn't just a case of "Isreal being horrible to brown people" like usual, this time they've taken a cock-punch at a NATO member nation. You know, those guys we are by treaty obligated to defend? If we condemn Isreal, we throw them out in the cold and they suddenly have reason to get a lot more paranoid. If we side with them, we're reneging on our obligations to NATO's other member states - those same states which, I should point out, leapt immediately to our aid when we were ourselves attacked by a foreign power or those operating with their implicit support over this last long, bloody, bullshit decade.

It's kind of a no-win scenario. If we side with Isreal, we're not only going to piss off Turkey (and let's be frank, normally we could give two tosses about Turkey,) but we're going to give the UK and France, among others, serious cause to wonder just where our loyalties would lie if it came down to "us or them" - with them, or with Isreal.

Neither is really an acceptable option. Telling a guy who's sitting on a massive stockpile of guns, surrounded by people who want him killed and who only refrain from launching an all-out attack because of your protection that you're no longer protecting him is an invitation to a bloodbath. Telling the guys who you vowed to side with should anyone take any shots at them whatsoever that you're going to side with the justifiably paranoid lunatic sitting on a pile of guns and ammo over them gives them real cause to question your sanity, let alone your willingness to follow-through on your obligations.


Here's hoping Obama can actually put some of that charisma he's been too spineless to use against the GOP to work and smooth this out somehow in a way that lets everyone save face and not have to ask the US who it really loves more.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

The Turkish government has recalled the Chief of the General Staff from a meeting in Egypt on emergency notice and released a formal statement calling the attack on Turkish ships in international waters an inhuman deed that will have irreversible consequences for Turkish relations with Israel. A nationalist mob has descended on the Israeli consulate in Istanbul which has had to be defended from rocks and firebombs by riot police. Death toll is reportedly now said to be at least 16.


Here's the Turkish Press source for this, including pictures of dead men on the decks of the prizes, probably smuggled out by satellite phone by those still aboard. The Israelis have seized the Turkish-flagged ships and are taking them to Haifa, which is certain to further inflame the Turks who will see it as an act of war since they were not carrying contraband and nobody will believe Israeli claims to the contrary.

Yeah, yeah, yeah...

What exactly is the Turkish government going to do about it? Send a strongly worded letter of protest? They don't give a greasy goat's dick and this is all for show. If they did care, they would have had warships in the area to protect their supply ships, now wouldn't they? They didn't and they don't. Until they do something, I consider their reaction so much hot air.

Come to think of it, the way the Turks handled this is WORSE than blowing hot air. The people who took part in this effort probably thought the Turkish government, by approving this mission, was going to make sure they weren't attacked -at least not on the open seas. The Turks did nothing and there's no reason to think they will in the future.

Expel the Israeli ambassador and all Israeli citizens in Turkey and cut off trade and diplomatic relations with Israel, that would be a possible reaction if the conservative government in Ankara takes the hard line. Certainly Turkey has been engaging in highly assertive foreign policy lately with the nuclear deal with Iran and Brazil, so they feel they have latitude in their foreign affairs. I don't think they'll escort the second wave of the aid convoy no matter how much nationalist rags in Istanbul call for the Turkish Navy to show the Israeli clown brigade how a real military fights (it would be hilariously lopsided, the Turkish Navy is the third largest by tonnage in Europe). Still, they can deal a serious blow to the Israeli economy by cutting off trade and complete the diplomatic isolation of Israel in the Mid-East, and it might also encourage Egypt and Jordan to similarly withdraw their recognition from Israel that they extended through the peace processes.

[Shroom Man 777]

That could be a clusterfuck. If we side with Turkey, Isreal could decide that with their big brother out of the picture, the only option is to go on an all-out offensive immediately, under the theory that the only way to win cat-and-mouse is not to be the mouse.

Um, what? So because of... something-something, Israel will immediately launch a pre-emptive strike at Turkey? Why? Because they're under the assumption that if America becomes supersad at a shipfull of dead Turks, then some XYZ Arab nation/s are going to attack then because of...?

I was implying that they'd do the thing in the world that would make Shep happiest, yes.

Why the hell do you keep on bringing up something that Shep "would do" or would make him "happiest" whenever you post your crap? What the hell does what makes Shep happiest have to do with the Middle East, and Israel, and Turkey?

Really, what would you do were you in their position, surrounded on literally all sides by people who hate you and want to see you, in their words, "driven into the sea," and the world's biggest power, arguably the only power with enough might to throw around to keep those peoples in check, suddenly pulled it's seemingly unending support from you after you put them into a choice between siding with you or siding with one of their other allies?

I wouldn't want to wait to be attacked, personally. In fact, I might think a first strike would be looking to be a really good option at that point. I'd start thinking back to the seven days' war and how I'd creamed everybody and advanced so fast that in the end I had to give most of it back because I could take it and nothing could stop me, but I didn't have the manpower to hold it.

And I'd start thinking about how this time there won't be a superpower to step in, tell everyone else that they got their asses beat, now sit down, take your land back and play nice. Then I'd start eyeing all the nukes that superpower gave me, remembering how many of those powers on my doorstep who don't like me are known to have been trying to get nukes of their own, and start thinking about whether it's better to start making glass craters before or after they make one of Tel Aviv.

Except the US hasn't even done shit in this situation, the Arabs haven't done shit in this situation, and the Turks haven't done shit in this situation, and nothing's happened yet which makes shit about Israel nuking all Arabia + Turkey nothing more than premature ejaculation over what makes Shep happiest.

Man, I guess Israel's dick must be really small if they don't think their nuclear deterrent can even, um, DETER, the rest of Arabia + Turkish non-nuclear powers from attacking Israel and thus forcing Israel to use its nuclear arms against Arabian/Turkish non-nuclear nations that are somehow not deterred at all by Israeli nukes and who'll attack Israel so Israel can nuke them because this is what would make Shep happiest.

I guess Egypt, Iran, Syria, Timbuktu and Lithuania's governments won't even give a crap about what Israel has done or not done to them, because something that "would make Shep happiest" (and a shipfull of dead Turks) would be a sufficient cassus belli for them to wage war against a nuclear-armed nation?

Maybe we should do some classical conditioning and electrocute Shep while superimposing images of nuclear weapons in his eyelids, so nukes won't make him happiest anymore. Because nukes won't make him happiest anymore, Israel, Arabia and Turkey now lose their sole reason to want to go nuclear war! If peace ends up becoming what makes Shep happier, then I guess electroconvulsive therapy on Sheppy-pooh would end up being more effective then the Camp David Accords! Because the nuances of nuclear deterrence, Middle Eastern politics, and actual realities then and there in Arabia, Israel and Turkey and how real people think/act/react to situations doesn't matter because of something-something *handwaves* happiest Shep, am i rite lol nuclear glow in the dark crater preemptive striking bombs.

BTW - I know for a fact that nukes aren't what makes Shep happiest. It is actually warm fuzzy cute german shepperd puppy doggies and adorable littel ferrets. I also think I am a person who makes Sheppy-pooh happiests! SHEP-SAAAN! DOMO ARIGATO SEMPAI SAMA! HAI! =^_______________^=

EDIT:

Mang! Turkey/US/EU angry at Israel = AUTOMATIC ISRAEL PREEMPTIVE NUCLEAR STRIKE ON ARABIATURKEYSTAN! LOL!

[Kane Starkiller]

(and let's be frank, normally we could give two tosses about Turkey,)

Turkey is actually one of the most important strategic allies for US as it is a counterweight for Russian influence around Black Sea and Caucasus and a counterweight for Iran.
I can definitely see the US deciding that long term relationship with Turkey is more important than its relationship with Israel.
Obviously the predictions about nuke fight are a tad bit premature however Israel is threading in very dangerous waters by pissing off Turkey.

[Serafina]

"Blockade runners get stopped cold after being warned"

More at 11.

International waters is now Israeli territory? Huh, news to me.

If the US had stopped illegal shipping bound for here in international waters, nobody would be saying a thing, even if it ended in the same manner. The only reason anyone pretends to give a damn is because Israel did it, and they're always in the wrong, right?

Sod off.
I would very much care if any country sunk a humanitarian aid convoy in international waters. Wether it's Israel, the USA, Germany or Canada doesn't matter.
IMHO, how Isreal handles the blockade against Gaza is bordering on a crime against humanity already. Such violent behaviour against foreign civilans doesn't improve that the least.

What exactly is the Turkish government going to do about it? Send a strongly worded letter of protest? They don't give a greasy goat's dick and this is all for show. If they did care, they would have had warships in the area to protect their supply ships, now wouldn't they? They didn't and they don't. Until they do something, I consider their reaction so much hot air.

They could enforce a blockade on their own, legally (if i am not mistaken).

Only cutting off all Isrealic trade could propably be a bad thing - and they can always threaten to stop the flow of US-supplies into Afghanistan.
Actual military action seems exeedingly unlikely, but if handled improperly, Isreal could become very isolated and the USA could loose a lot of credit with turkey and possibly the EU.

However, military escalation is possible - Turkey just might have the guts to give the next convoy a military escort and/or make it official bussiness.
In which case Isreal would sink not ships belonging to foreign civilians, but ships of a foreign nation.

Either way, i see four outcomes for this:
-Isreal plays it's prosecution trump-card sucessfully and the USA manage to appease Turkey. Business as usual - the USA play the buttmonkey for Isreal and piss off even more people in the middle-east, while Isreal learns no lesson.
-A huge political fallout for Isreal - trade is heavily disrupted by the EU and Turkey. Attacking foreigners might just be the final stroke that invalidates their prosecution card - with further consequences in the future.
-The USA trie to intervene and piss of Turkey. Turkey cuts the supply lines to Afghanistan for US-or coalition forces. The clusterfuck in Afghanistan get's worse, US-foreign relations are severely hurt - but Isreal can go on without learning a lesson.
-Turkish generals decide to show some military strenght towards Isreal. Isreal responds poorly, turkish soldiers get shot.
Results could be anywhere between a cold war and several skirmishes.

[Ritterin Sophia]

If you anticipate the worst, you cannot be surprised except pleasantly.

[Chris OFarrell]

The next 24 hours are going to be interesting. On a ship FILLED with reporters, Israel isn't going to be able to run the spin cycle. Even cutting them off isn't going to work for more then a day or two (and be counter productive, to put it mildly given that there are EUROPEAN POLITICAINS on board if I am not mistaken) so they are better off not doing so in the long term.

It's going to be interesting to see if the IDF were smart enough to have tactical cameras with all their troops, on the choppers and boats, all of them rolling to catch everything that happened. If their team WAS charged with people weilding knives and blunt objects and they opened fire then, well, its at least a defendable position for them, even if they SHOULD have avoided it in the first place.

But 15 people killed boarding a humanitarian fleet bringing desperatly needed supplies to Gaza? Right or wrong in terms of accuracy, black or white or shades of grey, its still going to be what flashes around the world...

[Ryan Thunder]

Shit, Israel shot up some humanitarian convoy?

Oh, wait, they found weapons on board.

/concern

[Ryan Thunder]

Shit, Israel shot up some humanitarian convoy?

Oh, wait, they found weapons on board.

/concern

Wait a minute--Jesus Christ what's this about Turkey? Okay, that's a pretty big deal...

[Serafina]

Wait a minute--Jesus Christ what's this about Turkey? Okay, that's a pretty big deal...

Short version:
Turkey was involved in the convoy, turkish citizens died.
Turkey is not too fond of Isreal anyway.
Turkey is a significant military power and their generals can be quite fond of saber-rattling and are political infuential.
Turkey is a major US-ally in the region (arguably strategically more important than Isreal).
Turkey is important for moving supplies into Afghanistan and Iraq.

So, yeah - nasty, potentially explosive political situation.

[CJvR]

A thought on Turkey. It seems likely that most of the Turkish activists were from the Islamic movement, and as such the sworn enemy of the secular state and military. This might limit the Turkish response considerably since it would hardly be in the military's intrest to defend it's political enemies or allow an action such as this by them to significantly alter Turkish policy. It is a bit intresting that there was an immediate attempt to storm the Israeli consulate, almost as if someone was expecting trouble...

As for stopping a ship in international waters. True a blockade is an instrument of war, but as long as noone tell Hamas that Gaza is supposed to be at peace with Israel I have no major issues with the IDF enforcing it.

Still a casualty list that long... The IDF had better have some solid proof to exhibit other than militant peace activists with sticks. This is why most nations are reluctant to deploy military units against civilian protests. Sending guys trained to kill into a situation where they will be provoked is a good way to generate plenty of martys.

[wautd]

Just to be a bit of a devil's advocate, what if they actually did find weapons? What if the first thing out of this mess is video footage of cargo holds filled to the brim with machine guns, RPG-7s and blocks of plastique?

I would actually find that good news because that would at least give them justification for this attack. But right now it seems like a worst case scenario for all parties involved (hell, the only ones benefitting from this attack are those Hamas assholes who got the best free PR in ages).
The best thing Israel can do right now is punishing the military commanders involved but I doubt that's going to happen any time soon.

Doubt? There is no doubt. Israeli soldiers themselves pointed out that outright murders of civilians occurred in the last major offensive. Israeli PR promptly promised to "investigate" the matter and precisely jack shit happened.

Netanyahu just declared that he fully supports the boarding action so yeah, no doubt indeed.

[Ryan Thunder]

Wait a minute--Jesus Christ what's this about Turkey? Okay, that's a pretty big deal...

Short version:
Turkey was involved in the convoy, turkish citizens died.
Turkey is not too fond of Isreal anyway.
Turkey is a significant military power and their generals can be quite fond of saber-rattling and are political infuential.
Turkey is a major US-ally in the region (arguably strategically more important than Isreal).
Turkey is important for moving supplies into Afghanistan and Iraq.

So, yeah - nasty, potentially explosive political situation.

Oh, whoa, sorry, Serafina. I appreciate your summarizing it for me, but that was a rhetorical question.

Thanks, though.

[Broomstick]

My first reaction on hearing about this was "WTF?", which is often my reaction to Middle East news, especially that involving either Israel or Muslim extremists.

But after reading this thread I have to wonder if sometimes there are part of the Israeli government that does this shit in part with the purpose of making the US with either Israel or the rest of the world instead of constantly trying to please everyone. Sort of an idea that if the US became as much a pariah as Israel then the US would truly fully back the Israeli struggles, the war would be won once and for all, and happy times would ensue (for the Israelis - not so much for some other groups).

I dunno, perhaps that is just far too cynical, even for modern politics...

And I hasten to add that I in no way think that is how the majority of Israelis feel.

[hongi]

A thought on Turkey. It seems likely that most of the Turkish activists were from the Islamic movement, and as such the sworn enemy of the secular state and military. This might limit the Turkish response considerably since it would hardly be in the military's intrest to defend it's political enemies or allow an action such as this by them to significantly alter Turkish policy. It is a bit intresting that there was an immediate attempt to storm the Israeli consulate, almost as if someone was expecting trouble.

..
The government in power though is Islamist. Not fundamentalist or anything like that, a moderate party that still scares the living daylights out of the secular bunch. But I doubt they'd look favourably on Israel.

[Serafina]

Turkey is not that split along religious lines. What will matter to them is that Isreal murdered their citizens, not wether or not those citizens were muslims - or wanted to help the palestinans.

You know, if Isreal would care if other nations protest against it's actions, this situation would be much better. In that case, protesting would be a good option for the turkish goverment. It is well know that there is basically no use in asking Isreal to do anything - you have to force them. And Turkey will likely be willing to force them.
Luckily, they have many political options for that.

In other words - Isreals bad reputation might finally bite it in the ass.

[thejester]

(and let's be frank, normally we could give two tosses about Turkey,)

Turkey is actually one of the most important strategic allies for US as it is a counterweight for Russian influence around Black Sea and Caucasus and a counterweight for Iran.
I can definitely see the US deciding that long term relationship with Turkey is more important than its relationship with Israel.
Obviously the predictions about nuke fight are a tad bit premature however Israel is threading in very dangerous waters by pissing off Turkey.

Mmmm, that assumes that US policy towards Israel is determined solely by national self-interest - which it doesn't seem to be. Given how much shit Obama is in over the BP spill, it'll be interesting to see if he has the balls to make some noise on this issue or if he'll take the politically easy way out.

[Qwerty 42]

Just to be a bit of a devil's advocate, what if they actually did find weapons? What if the first thing out of this mess is video footage of cargo holds filled to the brim with machine guns, RPG-7s and blocks of plastique?

Of course, it'll be "Isreal put them there."

It'd certainly make Israel look a lot better, but it doesn't change that the attack took place in international waters on a convoy which had no real means of attacking them back.

[LaCroix]

Just a quick question.
As far as I know, bringing up a vessel of a nation you are not in war with in international waters is piracy. In their own waters, they could claim to stop blockade breakers, but since they were outside, they technically hadn't attempted to break the blockade, yet.
So what if the boarders were attacked with knives and clubs? Since the Israelis were conduction an act of piracy with that boarding, they can't blame people for defending themselves. Or do I interpret the legality of that boarding wrong?

[Qwerty 42]

Just a quick question.
As far as I know, bringing up a vessel of a nation you are not in war with in international waters is piracy. In their own waters, they could claim to stop blockade breakers, but since they were outside, they technically hadn't attempted to break the blockade, yet.
So what if the boarders were attacked with knives and clubs? Since the Israelis were conduction an act of piracy with that boarding, they can't blame people for defending themselves. Or do I interpret the legality of that boarding wrong?

That's the gist of it, from what I understand. A number of sources, though not obviously all of them, say that Israel fired before boarding the ship, as well.. Supposedly the webcam feeds from the flagship show this, but I haven't seen it and can't comment.

[Beowulf]

Blockades do not necessarily have to take place within national waters in order to be legal. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the naval quarantine was outside of Cuban waters. Additionally, piracy implies non-state actors undertaking the boarding. As this was done by Israeli military personnel, it by definition is not piracy.

[Serafina]

However, unless my knowledge about international laws back from school is wrong (or i recall it wrong), blockades can only legally be institute against states.
Since Isreal does not recognize Palestina as a state (or does it?), it can not blockade it legally.

Now, they could have intercepted the convoy legally in their own waters under these conditions, but if it is not a blockade they have no legal right to do so outside of their waters (without declaring war on the respective nations to whom the convoy belongs).

That is, if i recall this correctly - but then again, i doubt legalese will matter that much here.

[Siege]

It'll be interesting to see the US government's reaction to this crisis; their reaction to the last one (the announcement of the expansion of Israeli settlements in east Jerusalem during Netanyahu's visit to Washington D.C.) was decidedly not pro-Israel in the least, so there's hope for stern words from Obama yet. In the end though I predict the USA will squirm a little but do or say little of any actual consequence. Stern words from the EU (lead by Germany and France) are pretty much guaranteed; the EU needs good relations with Turkey far more than it needs them with Israel. The Turks meanwhile are really pissed off and have vowed that relations with Israel "may not recover". That's pretty much the diplomatic lingo equivalent of punching someone in the nose; I imagine their trade and diplomatic relations with Israel will take a nosedive toward the sub-zero in the near future. So might European trade, in point of fact, unless the Israelis pull off some really convincing excuses (which I doubt--admitting wrongdoing, let alone apologizing profusely, is not exactly their strong suit).

[FSTargetDrone]

Netanyahu will not meet with the President after all:

Netanyahu cancels upcoming meeting with Obama

By the CNN Wire Staff

May 31, 2010 11:39 a.m. EDT

(CNN) -- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has canceled this week's scheduled meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama, Israeli government officials said Monday. The two leaders were slated to meet Tuesday during a visit by Netanyahu to Washington.

Netanyahu also decided to cut short a visit to Canada and return to Israel, according to an e-mail statement from his media adviser.

Netanyahu's cancellation of the meeting came in the wake of international condemnation of Israel after Israeli soldiers stormed a flotilla of ships carrying aid intended for Palestinians in Gaza, leaving at least nine people dead in the resulting violence.

Israel claimed it was defending itself, with the Israel Defense Forces saying the soldiers' lives were in danger after they were attacked with "severe physical violence, including live fire, weapons, knives and clubs."

Several nations, however, have condemned the military action and called for an investigation.

Netanyahu and Obama were set to discuss, among other things, the recently completed U.N. conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, according to an earlier statement from the Israeli government.

The final document released by participants in the month-long conference, which ended Friday, called for a 2012 conference of all Middle Eastern states to move forward on a 1995 proposal for a nuclear-free Mideast. The document also called on Israel to sign the treaty and place "all its nuclear facilities under comprehensive IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] safeguards."

Israel is not a member of the NPT and has neither confirmed nor denied that it has a nuclear weapons stockpile.

The Israeli government said in a statement the conference's document is "deeply flawed and hypocritical" and said it "ignores the realities of the Middle East and the real threats facing the region and the entire world." The statement also complained that Israel is singled out in the document and Iran, which is a signatory to the NPT, is not mentioned.

The United States signed onto the document, but Obama National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones said the U.S. government has "serious reservations."

[Qwerty 42]

Netanyahu will not meet with the President after all:

Netanyahu cancels upcoming meeting with Obama

By the CNN Wire Staff

May 31, 2010 11:39 a.m. EDT

(CNN) -- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has canceled this week's scheduled meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama, Israeli government officials said Monday. The two leaders were slated to meet Tuesday during a visit by Netanyahu to Washington.

Netanyahu also decided to cut short a visit to Canada and return to Israel, according to an e-mail statement from his media adviser.

Netanyahu's cancellation of the meeting came in the wake of international condemnation of Israel after Israeli soldiers stormed a flotilla of ships carrying aid intended for Palestinians in Gaza, leaving at least nine people dead in the resulting violence.

Israel claimed it was defending itself, with the Israel Defense Forces saying the soldiers' lives were in danger after they were attacked with "severe physical violence, including live fire, weapons, knives and clubs."

Several nations, however, have condemned the military action and called for an investigation.

Netanyahu and Obama were set to discuss, among other things, the recently completed U.N. conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, according to an earlier statement from the Israeli government.

The final document released by participants in the month-long conference, which ended Friday, called for a 2012 conference of all Middle Eastern states to move forward on a 1995 proposal for a nuclear-free Mideast. The document also called on Israel to sign the treaty and place "all its nuclear facilities under comprehensive IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] safeguards."

Israel is not a member of the NPT and has neither confirmed nor denied that it has a nuclear weapons stockpile.

The Israeli government said in a statement the conference's document is "deeply flawed and hypocritical" and said it "ignores the realities of the Middle East and the real threats facing the region and the entire world." The statement also complained that Israel is singled out in the document and Iran, which is a signatory to the NPT, is not mentioned.

The United States signed onto the document, but Obama National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones said the U.S. government has "serious reservations."

That's understandable. Serious stuff is going on in Israel, he belongs back there as soon as possible.