Israeli forces attack humanitarian convoy in intl. waters

[CJvR]

Which is the exact opposite of what CJvR claimed.
Furthermore, how likely is it for the military to start a military coup in times of war?

Besides, you are making your judgement on Turkey from decades ago. It might be hard to understand, but nations change.

Actually it is about the same, only I assume the Islamists wont back down. Yes nations do change and in Turkey's case not for the better IMPO. Islam have become stronger in Turkey but as long as the military defends the secular state the Islamists cant have the kind of state they want. At some point it will come to a confrontation between the two unless the current trends change.

[CJvR]

Israeli is going to defeat Turkey now?

The Turkish military is large and unlike the Arab armies it is actually earning it's pay. But it is not that much larger than the IDF and more critically it is a generation behind in the weapons technology cycle - so yes the IDF would likely defeat the Turkish in a military confrontation.

[Stark]

Thanks for snipping out the actual content of what you're suggesting; that Israel would launch an unprovoked attack on a convoy escorted by the Turkish navy and destroy their ships. But hey, that's cool, it'll somehow related to your Turkey hobby horses.

Good old Israelis, killing civilians!

[MKSheppard]

Israeli is going to defeat Turkey now?

Hmm it would be an air and sea war -- since Syria prevents any land invasions by both sides.

In the air; I would rate the IAF as being a tick above the Turkish Air Force -- both sides have comparatively the same level of equipment, but Israel has a decent arms industry that actually builds something so the IAF would have slightly better sensors and avonics.

On Sea... well...it's heavily slanted in favor of Turkey; since Turkey actually operates large surface combatants above 2,000 tons or so with their MEKOs and OHPs; while the Israeli Navy has never moved past it's origins as a light Fast Attack Craft based force; hence my comment of the Israelis ending up with sunken ships, and the turks some damage to their frigates -- and the IAF must save this catastrophe.

[CJvR]

...that Israel would launch an unprovoked attack on a convoy escorted by the Turkish navy and destroy their ships...

Actually I wrote:

If you send theTurkish military off to confront the IDF in it's own back yard it will end badly, how badly depends on how stupid the RoE are.

If you send out an escort with orders to get the transport through at any cost and a blockade force with instructions to prevent this at any cost somewhere along the line someone is going to start shooting. Once that happens down by Gaza the Turkish force will lose.

[CBG]

Another interesting question - who organized the attack? Was it the passenger's idea (if yes, why the crew didn't do anything about it), or someone higher up planned this?
It looks like that IHH might have staged it to push Turkey into the anti Israel camp.
THAT'S how an NGO can shape politics
And i don't think Erdogan government would have something against this.
From what i have found, the ship was recently purchased by IHH.
And these IHH guys don't look like your ordinary charity...
http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_ ... s_e105.htm

[Stark]

Hmm it would be an air and sea war -- since Syria prevents any land invasions by both sides.

In the air; I would rate the IAF as being a tick above the Turkish Air Force -- both sides have comparatively the same level of equipment, but Israel has a decent arms industry that actually builds something so the IAF would have slightly better sensors and avonics.

On Sea... well...it's heavily slanted in favor of Turkey; since Turkey actually operates large surface combatants above 2,000 tons or so with their MEKOs and OHPs; while the Israeli Navy has never moved past it's origins as a light Fast Attack Craft based force; hence my comment of the Israelis ending up with sunken ships, and the turks some damage to their frigates -- and the IAF must save this catastrophe.

As fascinating as all this trivia is, you're missing the fucking point. It's not going to be a war; it's going to be an unprovoked attack by Ev0l Jews against a navy protecting its citizens on the high seas. Do you honestly think this will happen? Of course not.

[Starglider]

Israeli is going to defeat Turkey now?

The Turkish military is large and unlike the Arab armies it is actually earning it's pay. But it is not that much larger than the IDF and more critically it is a generation behind in the weapons technology cycle - so yes the IDF would likely defeat the Turkish in a military confrontation.

If said conflict starts with Israel firing on Turkish ships then NATO's mutual defense obligation pretty clearly applies. Even assuming the US manages to wiggle out of it and remain neutral, the combined European air forces deploying to establish air superiority over the eastern mediterranean would make it a pretty short fight. Of course the chances of things escalating that far are negligible.

[MKSheppard]

As fascinating as all this trivia is, you're missing the fucking point. It's not going to be a war; it's going to be an unprovoked attack by Ev0l Jews against a navy protecting its citizens on the high seas. Do you honestly think this will happen? Of course not.

It all depends on how things shake out in Ankara.

If the Turks do decide to escort a convoy of "peace activists" and 10,000 tons of "supplies" into Gaza; then yes the Israelis will stop the convoy -- because unless they do; the blockade of Gaza, which has prevented HAMAS from doing anything militarily to Israel for the last couple of years will collapse -- and then we'll have a new Gaza war in a year or two. Either way, the Israelis are fucked.

[Stark]

Let me get this straight.

Are you HONESTLY saying the Israelis are going to launch an attack on the Turkish navy?

I thought you were supposed to know shit about militaries and strategic bullshit?

[Lord of the Abyss]

If the Turks do decide to escort a convoy of "peace activists" and 10,000 tons of "supplies" into Gaza; then yes the Israelis will stop the convoy -- because unless they do; the blockade of Gaza, which has prevented HAMAS from doing anything militarily to Israel for the last couple of years will collapse -- and then we'll have a new Gaza war in a year or two.

Except that Turkey >>>> Hamas. I can't see anything Hamas can do being anywhere near as dangerous as picking a fight with Turkey.

[Stark]

No way. Peace activists are far more dangerous to Shep.

[Starglider]

If the Turks do decide to escort a convoy of "peace activists" and 10,000 tons of "supplies" into Gaza; then yes the Israelis will stop the convoy -- because unless they do; the blockade of Gaza, which has prevented HAMAS from doing anything militarily to Israel for the last couple of years will collapse -- and then we'll have a new Gaza war in a year or two. Either way, the Israelis are fucked.

If the Turkish government makes an explicit offer to allow Israeli inspectors onto the ships, to confirm that it is just prefabs, food and medicine, what choice do they have? Unless they wish to declare food and medicine 'military materiel' and hence confirm the charge that they are waging war on Palestinian civillians.

[ShadowDragon8685]

If the alternative is to let the Turks steam a convoy of supplies straight into the arms of Hamas, they just might...

Of course, if the Turkish convoy tries to run their blocade, isn't that a de facto act of war that would case the NATO mutual defense clauses to not apply? And do the Turks really want to put the U.S. into a "pick between us or them" position? They might've been able to invoke the clauses over the fighting on the Turkey-flagged ship, but they didn't.

On the other hand, what are the chances they'll just fortify the docks where they want to land and declare that any men or materiel which lands are being considered enemy combatants and will be detained and/or gunned down as appropriate to the level of armament they're carrying? I'm not sure how that would play out, but that's what my gut is telling me is an alternative to the sea blocade - blockade the harbor district and prevent anything from offloading. Eventually, if nothing else, the ships' crew and passengers will start to get hungry and have to leave.

[Stark]

Hey, if Israel could keep their dick in their pants long enough to enter territorial waters, things would have been different.

[ShadowDragon8685]

Hey, if Israel could keep their dick in their pants long enough to enter territorial waters, things would have been different.

C'mon, Stark, that's not nice. You know they have premature outburst issues over there. It's not polite to play on a nation's insecurities like that.

More seriously, you have a damn good point. Why the fuck didn't they wait until the convoy was in their territorial waters to nail 'em?

[CJvR]

If said conflict starts with Israel firing on Turkish ships then NATO's mutual defense obligation pretty clearly applies.

Oh if anything starts I doubt it will be anything that can be described as "clearly" one way or the other. I don't exactly know the treaty text regarding NATO obligations but I doubt it includes going looking for trouble in Gaza - and then finding it! If the Turks go to Gaza they go alone, or with Arab backing which is almost the same thing.

[MKSheppard]

If the Turkish government makes an explicit offer to allow Israeli inspectors onto the ships, to confirm that it is just prefabs, food and medicine, what choice do they have?

That's the only option I can see that would defuse this situation; allowing Israeli inspectors to board the ships and inspect them from top to bottom -- and to control the docks where they get unloaded.

In any case, the food and medicine argument is a pretty disingenous argument, considering that Israel already does let that go through the truck crossings they control -- recently a shipment of concrete and steel went through the Kerem Shalom crossing twenty days ago -- because that consignment was specifically linked to a specific building project -- reconstructing a hospital which was damaged during the Gaza war.

[Stark]

So by 'going looking for trouble' you mean 'protecting civilians in international waters'? Man, if only the world really worked on tough-guy bullshit logic. DON'T START NUTHIN?

But hey you 'doubt' it'll be anything obvious because... somehow people won't notice missiles falling on Turkish ships? No way! Coverups!

[MKSheppard]

But hey you 'doubt' it'll be anything obvious because... somehow people won't notice missiles falling on Turkish ships? No way! Coverups!

There were accusations earlier of Israeli Sabotage on the convoy that was just interdicted -- apparently it's sailing date from Cyprus had been repeatedly postponed for technical reasons -- which certain elements were quick to place blame on the Israelis for.

[CJvR]

So by 'going looking for trouble' you mean 'protecting civilians in international waters'?

Or escorting supplies to someone actively fighting a war? It depends on your point of view. I think it is safe to say that NATO will not back a Turkish attempt to run the Gaza blockade because it would be insanely dangerous to do so. No if Turkey decides to pick a fight with Israel they will have to go it alone. And yes, going down to Gaza to support HAMAS supporters is to go looking for a fight. It is not as if the Israelis are blockading the Bosporus.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

One of the few things that would unite the various factions in Turkey or almost any other country is an armed attack on their ships.

Sure, for the moment. But after that? What if the short victorious war isn't? Pushing the military into an operation with a huge chance for humiliation or defeat would be extremeny beneficial for the Turkish Islamists and their agenda of getting rid of the secular watchdog - and I doubt even a whipped watchdog would go quietly.

The Turks currently have six or seven operational upgraded OHPs with new radars and sonars carrying 32 Standard MR missiles, and 32 ESSM as well as Phalanx CIWS, eight MEKO 200s with varying numbers of ESSMs and CIWS, and three older Knox-class frigates, as well as a brand new corvette also equipped with ESSM and six older corvettes; also fourteen Type 209 boats, and 33 FACs (irrelevant for this but it means they can send more ships out). They have 7 tankers and 3 resupply ships and can sustain operations off the Israeli coast. And finally of course, Turkish Air Force units operating from Cyprus, Antakya and Iskenderun can reach all of Israel with ease; it's less than 500km from Antakya to even the southern part of Gaza which is well within the combat radius of Turkey's 270 F-16s (up to 165 of which may be to Block 50 specification by now) when fully bombed up, let alone their 52 heavily upgraded Kurhass standard F-4s. To seriously say they have any chance of defeat against a navy which can't even remember to turn its own radars on, is utterly hilarious. The biggest danger would be if a submarine of the Israeli clown brigade accidentally launched a nuclear tipped cruise missile that they thought had a conventional warhead.

The IAF will be a much, much different story, but Harpoon is not exactly the world's best anti-ship missile and the Turks will have air cover. If there really was a naval war between Turkey and Israel it would include a major air component in which the Israeli navy is completely destroyed and all losses to the Turkish Navy are caused purely by the IAF, which would find a real opponent in tangling with the F-16s and F-4-2000s sent up to fight them (and especially in the later case, to bomb their runways).

Now all of this is absurdly unlikely, absurdly so, because the Israelis will back down if the Turkish ships are sent--which they very well might not be. The chance of something like this happening is less than one percent I'd say, but I really just have to address the gibbering stupidity inherent in the idea that the Israelis have a home field advantage only about 450km from Turkish territory which will somehow compensate for the supine amateurishness of the Israeli Navy and let them beat the third largest navy in Europe.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

What I'm most interested in is what will be the Greek response to the machine-gunnning of that one Greek ship in the convoy? A combined Turkish-Greek escort for the next convoy would be a very grand example of rapproachment between the two traditional enemies and would send an unmistakeable message that pretty much the entire world stands against Israel's behaviour. It would also I imagine do a lot to help Greek national prestige in a moment when it has been utterly shattered by the recent economic crisis, and Israel has never been popular in Greece anyway.

[Elfdart]

If the Turks do decide to escort a convoy of "peace activists" and 10,000 tons of "supplies" into Gaza; then yes the Israelis will stop the convoy -- because unless they do; the blockade of Gaza, which has prevented HAMAS from doing anything militarily to Israel for the last couple of years will collapse -- and then we'll have a new Gaza war in a year or two. Either way, the Israelis are fucked.

If the Turkish government makes an explicit offer to allow Israeli inspectors onto the ships, to confirm that it is just prefabs, food and medicine, what choice do they have? Unless they wish to declare food and medicine 'military materiel' and hence confirm the charge that they are waging war on Palestinian civillians.

If Israel's chief concern was preventing weapons from being smuggled in relief supplies, then they would have asked the Turkish government to inspect the ships while they were still in Turkish ports -which Ankara would have almost certainly done. But that's not what the blockade is about. It's about starving Gaza into submission. That's why frozen or canned meat is allowed, but live chickens and cows are not. The latter enable the Palestinians to grow their own, putting them less at the mercy of Israel.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

If the Turks do decide to escort a convoy of "peace activists" and 10,000 tons of "supplies" into Gaza; then yes the Israelis will stop the convoy -- because unless they do; the blockade of Gaza, which has prevented HAMAS from doing anything militarily to Israel for the last couple of years will collapse -- and then we'll have a new Gaza war in a year or two. Either way, the Israelis are fucked.

If the Turkish government makes an explicit offer to allow Israeli inspectors onto the ships, to confirm that it is just prefabs, food and medicine, what choice do they have? Unless they wish to declare food and medicine 'military materiel' and hence confirm the charge that they are waging war on Palestinian civillians.

If Israel's chief concern was preventing weapons from being smuggled in relief supplies, then they would have asked the Turkish government to inspect the ships while they were still in Turkish ports -which Ankara would have almost certainly done. But that's not what the blockade is about. It's about starving Gaza into submission. That's why frozen or canned meat is allowed, but live chickens and cows are not. The latter enable the Palestinians to grow their own, putting them less at the mercy of Israel.

It's worse than that. The ships were in fact inspected in Turkish ports.

Officials deny Israeli claims weapons were onboard
Turkish officials have denied claims leveled by Israeli authorities that weapons were onboard one of the six aid ships attacked by Israel on Monday. Officials from the Customs Undersecretariat said every passenger was searched before getting on the ship with the help of X-ray machines and metal detectors. Senior officials from the undersecretariat said Israel's allegations were tantamount to “complete nonsense.”

Officials from the Customs Undersecretariat said all passengers that boarded the Mavi Marmara ship were screened and that not a single passenger was in possession of any weapon. “Forty-two passengers boarded in İstanbul and 504 passengers got on the ship here. They were screened. We spotted no weapons and there is no such record in our logs. We did not notice anything suspicious about the Mavi Marmara. Had our officers had any suspicions, they would have reported it,” an official, speaking under the condition of anonymity, said.

The undersecretariat has cutting-edge technology at all ports and airports. In addition to advanced detectors and X-ray scanners, the undersecretariat uses highly trained sniffer dogs. In fact, there has been a great increase in the capture of criminals by teams of the Customs Undersecretariat, which uses the vessel monitoring system of the Marine Undersecretariat. Previously, the National Intelligence Organization (MİT) was the only agency with access to this system.

Officials from the Humanitarian Aid Foundation (İHH), the organization that organized the aid flotilla, also shared their opinions yesterday at a press conference. İHH officials say they were extremely concerned about the fate of those injured in Israel’s attack, particularly since all communications have been cut off by Israeli officials. İHH Vice President Yavuz Dede said: “We have explained that these ships comprised a humanitarian aid flotilla and were not, in any way, politically motivated. All the supplies on the ships had gone through customs control. There is absolutely no weaponry or ammunition on the ship. The people on the ship were not soldiers. They are members of civil society groups, members of the press and deputies. The people who went there had set to provided at least a bit of breathing space for the people there.”

Dede said they had expected Israel to make the false accusation that there were weapons on the ship in an attempt to legitimize the atrocious act of storming a humanitarian aid ship and killing people onboard. He said what happened was a shame for the entire human race.

He also condemned Israel’s campaign of disinformation. Dede said that two people were killed and 30 wounded during the military assault, but noted that they could not follow later developments because communication with the ship had been lost. He said they were extremely worried by this situation, adding that they had expected some sort of intervention, but nothing like this. “We thought they would be more humane, but we saw a monstrous intervention,” Dede said.