Serafina wrote:Well - i was just saying that in the Honorverse, hit&run attacks to take out enemy planets are not feasible, since you won't be able to destroy any infrastructure on the planet. At least not without occupying it and dismantling it.
True, though raids against orbital infrastructure can still be devastating; we have plenty of evidence of that.
Pantastic wrote:Simon_Jester wrote:Haven has so much depth that they were still fifty light years from Haven even at the end of the war. And for sustained combat operations, they can't strike much deeper than that without a solid base to provide fuel for the ships from.
That statement is shown to be wrong in the snippets that have been released of the next book (Mantiocore can and does strike at Haven without taking any intermediate fleet bases). It is also completely at odds with Honor's stated plan to deal with the Solarian League in Storm from the Shadows, which requires operations at significantly greater distances.
Umm... you do realize the difference between
raiding and
sustained combat operations, right? It's very important. Honor can
raid from Trevor's Star to Haven. That does not mean she could keep a permanent fleet presence in the Haven system and hold it against counterattack by forces moving in frrom the provinces. There's a difference between hitting and running, on the one hand, and hitting and
staying, on the other. To win wars you need staying power.
This is why Honor is not greatly confident of success against the Solarian League. She knows that while the overwhelming tactical superiority of Manticoran ships allows them to raid at will, they physically cannot raid enough targets fast enough to keep the Sollies from building a modern fleet and (eventually) steamrollering Manticore. The only way to beat the Sollies is to break them up politically (which only works because they're on the brink of collapse as it is), OR to physically occupy the Solarian core systems... which no power in the Honorverse has the wherewithal to do.
It also implies that the Solarian League has vastly better logistics than Manticore, since they're starting a strike of similar length at the end of SFS.
I'd expect them to. The League is so
big and with such a broad expanse of territory that they have a large merchant marine to draw on for supply ships. Their practice of mothballing a big reserve fleet also helps them, because they can mothball fast tankers, and 100-year-old tankers aren't going to be as obsolete as 100-year-old dreadnoughts.
So it's natural that they can support much larger fleets at greater distances from their home ports than anyone else, with a few possible exceptions among large minor powers with big merchant marines, like Manticore.
In War of Honor, Haven launched a huge coordinated attack at the end of the ceasefire, IIRC it was the most massive offensive in Honorverse history at that time. All of the ships for this attack except for one fleet (the one off in Silesea) went to one uninhabited system so that it would be harder to spot them. Haven sent supply ships to the system with six months of supplies for the ships. While that wouldn't need to include much ammunition, since they weren't in combat, it did include enough food, spares, and fuel for them to continuously operate under combat-like fuel usage (they were conducting exercises to keep in practice).
You're vastly, vastly underestimating how much supply Honorverse ships can carry, and vastly, vastly exaggerating the difficulties of supply. All of your detailed calculations completely ignore the fact that it's possible to bring six months of supplies in one jump of supply ships. This is not multiple supply runs per week, this is one per three months (to be on the safe side), which is not a continuous run of supplies.
That doesn't change the calculation: if you operate near the limit of your range, you're still shuttling freighters back and forth continuously, and you still need more supply ships if you have the freighters running slowly.
Now, if you detail enough supply ships per warship, you can certainly stockpile that kind of reserve. In normal operations, you
do not do so. For Thunderbolt (the coordinated attack you mention), that was a maximum-effort operation by the entire Havenite fleet, including the logistics command. They concentrated
everything at that one system, leaving very little in place to defend from Manticoran attack, because they had the advantage of knowing that Manticore would not attack them while they were preparing or launching their surprise offensive.
Normally, you would not have the luxury of doing this. You would need significant fleet commands positioned to guard expensive assets throughout your space, and you could not dedicate your entire merchant marine to prepositioning a huge supply cache for them. Thus, regular supply runs become more necessary.
If a ship can operate independantly for multiples of 4 weeks at a time, it does not need more fuel each week to operate. This is basic math. For example, nuclear submarines here on Earth do not need to recieve fuel on a week by week basis, as they carry months worth of fuel at a time.
OK. Resupply the fleet on a month by month basis. Given that the time of flight for distances of more than fifty light years or so is measured in
weeks, this is still a problem; you still need to devote
Haven held Trevor's star all through the early part of the war, and Trevor's star is literally right next to Manticore since it has a junction of the wormhole. If they hold some other system nearby, it doesn't make it any more difficult to defend.
Do you not grasp the difference between a tonnage-limited approach through the Trevor's Star wormhole terminus (which means the Havenite fleet emerges under the mines and beams of the Junction forts) and a tonnage-unlimited approach through open space that can strike anywhere at any time?
And there is no difference between a permament fleet and a gigantic raid. If Haven can control space in the Manticore home system for a day or so, the war is over, as Manticore can no longer offer effective resistance.
That works for Haven against Manticore. It does not work for Manticore against Haven. So the question is not "why no deep strikes, why worry about supplies?" It is "Why didn't
Haven use a deep strike against Manticore?" The answer is simple: their prewar leadership thought they needed to pare down the Manticoran fleet before concentrating and moving against Manticore proper, and by the time the new government was in effective control, Haven was firmly on the defensive and remained so for most of the rest of the conflict.
Then why did you present that scenario as if it was a bad outcome for Manticore? You wrote it as though that was a drawback of the proposed course of action, but it would be a great thing from Manticore's perspective.
Your lack of reading comprehension is not my responsibility.
You just need to zip into Haven, defeat the fleet, then go into orbit around the planet and point your ships weapons at the capital to dictate a surrender. A week is more than enough time to force the planet where Haven's central government is located to surrender, and to trash all military, government, and production facilities. Six months is massively more than enough time, and it's demonstrated that a single wave of supply ships can carry six months of supplies, so you don't need a continuous supply train, you need one every few months.
What happens when (not if,
when) your fleet leaves and the government reneges on the surrender agreement? What stops the government from leaving and relocating the capital at a remote location, out of range of even your raiders?
What makes you think that popping out of the sky, buzzing around for a few weeks, and pointing death rays at the capital is enough to secure the permanent surrender of a major empire?