Moscow fires

[CJvR]

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=45046

A few NASA shots showing the scale of the Russian fires...

[Vympel]

At least one A-135 site, complete with radars and missile silos is fully abandoned. Google tells me it's the 51T6 Azov silos. Too bad.

That's one abandoned site out of two. The system is definitely still active.

http://russianforces.org/blog/2005/10/m ... ites.shtml

(There have been parades or two where the operational interceptors missiles have been shown off).

Still being tested:-

On October 11, 2007 Russia conducted a successful test of an interceptor of the Moscow missile defense system. According to the Russian military, the test, which took place at 12:01 MSK (08:01 UTC) at the Sary-Shagan test site in Kazakhstan, was part of the system maintenance and the life extension program of the short-range interceptor of the system. It was also reported to be used to test the upgraded and modernized support facilities at Sary-Shagan.

The interceptor tested at Sary-Shagan was a short-range 53T6 interceptor. The A-135 missile defense system deployed around Moscow includes 68 interceptors of this type deployed at five sites. According to the reports about the test, it was the 42nd flight of the interceptor of this type since 1983. Previous test of a 53T6 interceptor took place at Sary-Shagan on December 5th, 2006.

Tajikistan civil war - 1991-1997. Yugoslavia. I'm not sure conflicts over strips of land are a "thing of the past". NATO might soon leave Afghanistan. What if Hamid Karzai's narco-state collapses? And Tajikistan gets another wave of civil warfare? How would Russia respond? What if things go real bad in Central Asia - none of the regimes there are even half as stable as Russia itself?

What does Russia need to do if anything of that happens? Its not like there's going to be any invading Central Asian hordes.

*laughs* Yeah, about that. But the percentage will automatically rise if you downsize the military. Slash the forces 50%, and the percentage will rise to 10%. A numerical result!

LOL that'd be one way to fix it.

http://svpressa.ru/society/article/28065/
This is a good summary of Vostok-2010.
1) Preparing to fight their own population
2) No strategic operations, only tactical

Even so, an exercise of this scale was unthinkable ten years ago. I doubt the commanders will be happy to just accept the current state of affairs as opposed to attempt to rebuild the capability to operate on a strategic level if required - slowly.

Why it shouldn't be sustained at the current level? The USA is pursuing widespread deployments of ABM and also Prompt Global Strike, a very dangerous tool which looks like something of a hyperpower wet dream (conventional missile strikes into any nation within one hour).

Their ABM system isn't anywhere near the size to come anywhere close to putting a big enough dent in a Russian attack to matter, and there really are no indications it ever will be. If they want to expand it - and frankly given America's current ecomonic state I don't see a huge expansion in the offing for anytime soon - then Russia can build up again as well. But there's no point in wasting money on it now. There's not going to be some sort of snap war crisis at the drop of a hat where the US will feel safe in attacking Russia because of their ABM.

Well, the USSR had it's enemies generously funded (at 1 billion USD per year) by Pakistan and the USA. What funding do the islamists in Dagestan enjoy? Virtually zero. And yet, they operate with exceptional impunity.

The Taliban and numerous unaffiliated warlords in Afghanistan now enjoy the same thing, and they're not getting $1B per year from anyone. Its a tough slog.

[quoe]The attack on the Baksan powerplant was very indicative. Russia's strategic objects are woefully unguarded, a large swath of the population is often living in pauper-like conditions and the Army is going to be downsized. I can't see that as boding well for Russia.[/quote]

The bombing of the Baksan powerplant is a law enforcement/ home security matter, rather than the military, though.

The downsized Army folks are well-armed people you let out into the society without any support. A certain fraction will just drink vodka and die, but some will turn to crime and terrorism. Not to mention they'll hold a grudge against the government which did it.

Remember, Russia is not the USSR. All downsized lieutenants and other officers won't automatically get assigned to factories, industrial plants or something. They'll just go jobless and become very, very spiteful.

They'll just have to be vigilant and try and improve the ecomony to give people as many jobs as possible. But being held hostage to a top-heavy officer corps isn't an option.

Well, it is if there's some sort of military coup and something like that scene from The Simpsons happens ...

[K. A. Pital]

What does Russia need to do if anything of that happens? Its not like there's going to be any invading Central Asian hordes.

Not Russia, certainly. I'm not sure I'd even want the current leadership of Russia to do anything. They have been willing accomplices in the creation of Karzai's narcoregime and I admit I've lost all and any support I've had for my nation's "government" over the years. If we look at it from an imperialist perspective though (and there's always one), the possible ramifications for Tajikistan can lead to adverse consequences for Russian businesses there. To protect the interests of Russian capitalists, blah blah blah. *laughs sadly* Poor justification, but it's probably one that works for the current Russia.

Even so, an exercise of this scale was unthinkable ten years ago. I doubt the commanders will be happy to just accept the current state of affairs as opposed to attempt to rebuild the capability to operate on a strategic level if required - slowly.

The commanders anyway have little to no say in what happens in the military. Those who criticize are removed in a media silence.

There's not going to be some sort of snap war crisis at the drop of a hat where the US will feel safe in attacking Russia because of their ABM.

*nods* What you say makes sense. The US can, however, utilize the new abilities to attack Russian satellites and possible allies. I'm not sure I can take either the side of Russia or the US in such a possible conflict, but it's certainly something which one can't write off. I wouldn't be surprised if the US utilizes a better satellite than Georgia for a proxy war at some point in the future, actually.

They'll just have to be vigilant and try and improve the ecomony to give people as many jobs as possible. But being held hostage to a top-heavy officer corps isn't an option.

*laughs* Perhaps so. Although I wouldn't count on them to improve jack and shit, I guess it's just residues of nationalism speaking. The degradation of Russia's military and massive firings of people without any social support is actually beneficial for possible political change in Russia, however horrid that sounds.

[Tribun]

Looking at the pictures of Moscow vanishing in a thick smog cloud which limits visibility to only few meters fatally reminds me of the great London Smog of 1952, only that this seems to be even worse than the smog of 1952. I think we don't even want to know what kind of poisons float around in the air there.

[CaptainChewbacca]

At least the clouds are only pyrocumulous. Once they get to be pyrocumulonimbus, then you get lightning and firestorms.

[Vympel]

Putin responds directly to Russian blogger

... Last week, Mr. Putin aggressively countered criticism of his government in a reply to an outraged Russian blogger’s screed about the dismal state of firefighting in one small town that had been forwarded to the prime minister by an independent radio station, Ekho Moskvy.

As the BBC reported, the station “had challenged Mr. Putin to reply to the blog entry, which it selected as an example of anger among Russians over the state’s inability to control the wildfires.” In a note to Mr. Putin accompanying the complete text of the blogger’s post, the radio station’s editor in chief, Alexei Venediktov, wrote, “Nobody will tell you this to your face, of course, but the Internet is full of criticism and discontent.” He then asked the “Esteemed Vladimir Vladimirovich,” to tell the public, “What would you say to this man?”

According to Russia Today, Mr. Putin’s response to the blogger, in a hand-written letter dripping with sarcasm, began: “At the end of the workday, breathing in the smoke from the burning fires like all Muscovites are doing, I — with great interest and pleasure — acquainted myself with your evaluation of the situation.”

Mr. Putin clearly did read the obscenity-littered blog post, since he responded to it point by point. While he told the blogger — who uses the name top-lap on LiveJournal — “Overall, I agree with your criticisms,” and promised to provide the alarm bell the man requested for his village, the premier took issue with the assertion that Soviet governments had dealt better with wildfires. Mr. Putin noted that since the current heat wave was the country’s worst for 140 years, no Communist leader had to face the same kind of crisis.

He also took time to mock the man’s writing style with praise clearly exaggerated for comic effect:

Indeed you are an amazingly sincere and straightforward person. You are simply a brick! And, undoubtedly, you are a gifted writer. If you were earning your living in literature, you could live on [the Italian island of] Capri just like Lenin’s favorite writer Maxim Gorky did. But you would not be able to feel safe even there, since in both Europe and in the United States people face the same kind of natural disasters.

Say what you will about Russian politics, this sort of thing is damn priceless. Autocrat of All the Russians makes sarcastic reply To Some Blogger, lol.

[Kanastrous]

The veiled threat - having invoked Gorky, followed by the 'you will not feel safe even there' bit - is priceless, too.

Of course, he just meant 'safe' with regard to 'natural disasters.'

Of course he did.

[fgalkin]

Considering the whole thing was staged, yeah, the non-existent blogger would be quite safe. And ol' Venik is still doing the job he's there for, providing the illusion of a free media.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Thanas]

The thing was staged? Have you got a link?

[fgalkin]

Well, nothing official, but one hears rumors when one is part of the same organization (and I know just how tightly controlled by the Kremlin Venik and Echo really are).

In any case, I should explain the "non-existent" bit, since the blogger has been found, and got the bell he wanted, in that the person does exist, but the expression of his anger, as well as Putin's response was part of a publicity stunt.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Sea Skimmer]

Their ABM system isn't anywhere near the size to come anywhere close to putting a big enough dent in a Russian attack to matter, and there really are no indications it ever will be. If they want to expand it - and frankly given America's current ecomonic state I don't see a huge expansion in the offing for anytime soon - then Russia can build up again as well. But there's no point in wasting money on it now. There's not going to be some sort of snap war crisis at the drop of a hat where the US will feel safe in attacking Russia because of their ABM.

You might want to go do some research on just how big an area you can defend with a 5.5km/s interceptor like SM-3 Block II will be before you say that. It’s possible to use ONE such site to cover most of CONUS and the US is aiming to buy hundreds of them. Locations for the US land based SM-3 sites have not been selected, but that ought to happen in the next couple years.

In the long run we may find it was a major blunder for Russia to have leaned so hard against GBI and KEI, and forcing all US ABM onto smaller, cheaper and far more mobile platforms. The vast cost of GBI and its follow on KEI per war shots was always going to hold down deployment, and no matter how good either one is it still only kills the warheads from one ICBM or SLBM at most. Much more numerous SM-3s actually could easily led to the US fielding enough interceptors to handle an all out Russian attack when such levels of KEI deployment (MDA wanted KEI to phase out GBI in the long run) were unthinkable. in fact current plans already call for 450 SM-3s by 2018 when Block II is fielded, the old plan was for more like 150 of the things. If the US sustained building 50 SM-3s for 20 years (assuming 20 year missile life) that would be a 1,000 missile force. By that time lasers are likely to have transformed aerospace defense as we know it.

The Taliban and numerous unaffiliated warlords in Afghanistan now enjoy the same thing, and they're not getting $1B per year from anyone. Its a tough slog.

Drug sales fool! The Taliban are estimated to make something between 600 million and 1 billion a year off selling opium.


Now as for the fires, I hear some are burning on top of radioactive dump sites and now people are afraid radioactive dust is being lofted into the air now... which sounds possible but unlikely to be much more of a hazard then breathing smoke that dense for so long already is. Maybe they can nuke the fires and contain them with the tree blow down?

[Broomstick]

People are already worried about radioactive dust and you're proposing nukes as a solution? Somehow, I don't think that will be well received.

[Sea Skimmer]

People are already worried about radioactive dust and you're proposing nukes as a solution? Somehow, I don't think that will be well received.

No different then the Russians suggesting we nuke our oil leak. Reportedly the Soviet peaceful nuclear explosion program actually tested this fire fighting idea too among its 100+ nuclear initiations. The nuking of gas leaks is confirmed, those wonderful Russians have uploaded videos of the tests to youtube.

[Big Orange]

From what I could glean from the so-called Russia Today network is that the fires around sensitive areas (like military and nuclear facilities, etc) have been largely contained and I've seen military planes dump lake/sea water on the blazes.

And here's another example of what shape the Russian military is in since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with Russian troops (conscripts) getting in a large fight in a Moscow recruitment and training academy:



Although the increasing prevalance of cameras and the internet reveals more things than the media did in the past, especially the controlled Soviet media, did similar events happen in the Soviet era?